Discussion in 'Kings Rap' started by VF21, Mar 29, 2017.
Very accurate and thorough.
Funny thing about youth and rookies and lotto picks and the perpetual rebuilding. The lowered expectations of not making the playoffs but watching the young guys and HOPING that they meet their potential is a trap. Most players have these unrealistic expectations put upon them by fans. It's what Kings fans do best. The few times we actually have an elite player or all-star, half of Kings fans spew venom because of reasons but worse, our FO trades them for nothing (IT) or pennies on the dollar(Boogie). Incredibly hard to be anything but skeptical or snarky as a Kings fan at this point.
Kings hire a very good coach, would it really shock anyone if Vivek dumped him in 2 years because they don't make the playoffs. On the verge of making the playoffs this year and they trade Boogie. This franchise belongs in the same group as the Nets who got there because of ownership. It starts there. It is almost guaranteed that there will be another eye brow raising move by ownership.
Show me the posts where KINGS and CHAMPIONSHIP have been posted together, post 2005.
I don't have the time to look through all of the thread, but if you look through the Sam Hinke thread:
There are a few of the more disgruntled KF posters that thinks that Hinke's plan to tank and draft 2 or 3 "transformational" players over a few severe tank years, to become a championship caliber team, instead of trying to compete right away was the better way to rebuild.
According to their views, which were pro-Hinke plan and anti- Vlade, believed that it is better to tank long term, to try and win the lottery a couple of times and draft a couple of top 1 or 2 "transformational" players to build a championship caliber team and not just a middle tier team.
My guess is the next response will be that you initially said "championship team" and now you're changing it to "championship caliber team"...
I'm just looking for a coherent plan from NBA3.0. When the Kings traded their franchise player and called it part of a rebuild, I assumed they were prepared to tear things down and engage in one. At the same time, I wondered if they they were committed to dealing with the fan fallout of a low 20 win season. Sure, a new arena can be the perfect time to execute such a move. At the same time, the new arena is a cash cow and an opportunity to reconnect with fans that fell out and being abysmal hurts that.
For the past several years, the plan seems to have been: draft somebody around 7 for the long term, sign the best players you can to help in the short term, and hope somebody breaks out and it all gels.
That's a plan and it could work. But it sure seems like more of the same for a franchise that's telling fans, "We're going to rebuild this thing" after making TV ad thumbing their nose at the prospect of rebuilding just 20 months ago. Granted this a franchise where the words and action often don't match, but I took them at their word regarding rebuild.
I'm not advocating for an path. I sincerely can't tell if folks here think the Kings cobbling together a roster that will chase 33 wins next season is really the plan ... or they just don't want to contemplate the prospect of next season being a 21 win slog. Perhaps, nobody has much of a guess and we'll have to wait and see.
I'm not asking what fans thing the best plan would be ... instead, what does it appear the Kings are trying to do over the next 2 years from a macro plan? After they start making moves, I'm sure folks will say "Ah, ha! It's ___" and have plenty to say about it. I can't tell. For about 25 NBA teams, the near term plan A is relatively straight forward. I assumed it finally was for the Kings ... but the content and feedback on that issue here has me wondering if the Kings are actually prepared to bit the bullet next year.
Yeah, given the team's track record I understand the uncertainty regarding direction. But it really does seem like they're embracing the rebuild. The team has won six out of 20 games since the Trade--good for 24.6 over a full season. That would put them around 4th-worst given everyone else's pace this season. I don't know what more they really should have done--traded Collison? Shut down the vets sooner? I was on board with the former, but maybe the deals weren't out there. And I think the youth development has actually been better served with steady PG play out there to run things.
At this point, wins in the mid 20s is around what I expect to see next season. But you're right, we don't really know. And I understand if folks are holding their breath to see if the Kings overpay some mediocre veteran free agents this summer.
I'm good either way and read the tea leaves the way you do. I'm reading a lot here from fans that know a lot more about the Kings that I do, who seem to expect the team to be competitive next year and/or don't seem to think the Kings will probably try to bottom out for the 2018 pick.
Perhaps that's just fandom / not wanting to assume next season will be even worse for wins and losses ... but perhaps we are wrong regarding the course the Kings will take? I don't know.
I get both sides, but we have been burned so many times as fans with "hope" remember when all of the dysfunction was going to end with Vivek buying the team and the team was going to be in the playoffs when the new arena opened? HA. There was tons of optimism around here and things were pretty bad prior to Vivek purchasing the Kings. Now fast forward 5 or so years later and we are a bigger mess with arguably less talent. Theres a reason for all of the depression around here! Its not just because we want to ruin the fun of Skal having a 12/10 game in a 20 pt loss, we have been up and down with false hope for the better part of a decade, we are to the point were we can see when a move will likely work out for us or not, like us or not all of the negative folks who get talked down to have been right about nearly all of the moves since Vivek took over! You may not like our attitude but we have been burned so many times we have developed a sense for BS and a move not working out a mile away. We don't WANT to be negative, all of us, positive and negative fans just want to win.
Vivek had the perfect chance to trade Cuz at that time he bought the team strip(not much to strip) the roster and bring in masterminds at GM and HC and let them run the show. Vivek had an absurd amount of goodwill built up. Many argued for that to occur right then but since we had all been thru 6-7 years of losing we were all on board with a fast-track half-butt rebuild to get back to the 2002 days ASAP. He could have used the last ARCO years to seriously build up an asset base but no we wanted that 8 seed.
Can we just let the fast tracking stuff go finally? ITS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. We have to pay our dues and take the tank on the chin, it would take nothing short of a miracle to make the playoffs by 2020,(thats why I facepalmed when Vlade said two years) the miracle stuff is simply not realistic. If you watch the rest of the league regularly you can see the talent level it takes to be a top 10 team and we are no where near that. Let go of the miracles and embrace the tank!
Yes tanking is not guaranteed right away but if you do it long enough you can eventually get it right, even accidentally(see clippers/blake griffin) . Its really not much worse than what we are doing right now anyway!
No one likes tanking but it is the only realistic chance of getting out of this decade long Hell.
Will Vivek finally let go and let the long term tank run its course and give a real GM real power? Probably not, so all of this back and forth is moot anyway. History shows he will lose patience and make a fast track type move in the next year or two and we will be back here again, scrambling for false hope.
Anyway good luck to those of you trying to build consensus around here on losing being the right path for 3-5 years to help build a sustainable long term playoff team. Many are happy with any wins we can get and will always be that way, IMO thats more of a "give up" mentality than tanking. That seems to be a problem in the braintrust of the kings and the minority owners as well, some folks want wins fast, if you follow the entire NBA closely, that doesn't happen often. You HAVE to pay your 5-6 years of full out losing dues. (Top 3 pick type losing not 7-10 type losing) to finally have success.
If you would have said in 2012 when Vivek came on that we need to tank for 5 years you would have gotten the same responses that you do now, a bunch of false hope on the backs of kids who are not blue chippers and other fast track type moves. Even after the last 5 years you still have people refusing to bottom out and build properly. Tanking is not much worse than the circus we have been since Vivek came on board. Embrace the tank until they change the rules, be like the Suns/Sixers/Lakers and do it blatantly.
Let's be precise here. Vlade did not say playoffs by 2020, or two years. He said the team will be "in a better position in two years." That could mean a lot of things, but it's not precisely a playoffs promise.
Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/ailene-voisin/article135024309.html#storylink=cpy
I never said it was a playoff promise by Vlade, thats just a statement I made on my own.
If were going to question preciseness though then what exactly does "in a better position in two years" mean? We were knocking on the doors of the playoffs (we had a realistic shot) at the all-star break pre-trade so I would assume he means a better position is actual playoffs.
I know I'm drawing a conclusion here but hopefully my reasoning for it is acceptable.
Let me put this disclaimer: I was against the trade and was appalled by how it was handled.
But there was a contingent that made the argument that a re-signed Demarcus at HIS max contract, two of the next three years with no first round draft picks that the team would have very little in ways of improving itself. In other words with little flexibility.
They painted a bleak picture and they might have been right. We'll never know. If the management saw it along the lines of them, the flexibility now afforded especially if the new pieces do well could meet the promise of "in a better position in two years." Having nothing to do with the playoffs. If that was the case I hope they were right, cause that is the tract the team has taken.
We were on the edge of playoffs this year. Better position in two years IS playoffs.
YUP. I try to be as objective as I can I know it's been a tough decade + for us but if we're not in the playoffs but 2019 Vlade should step down imo.
That was my whole issue with Vlade's two year statement. There was no definitive goals set in that statement . It is ambiguous and does not mean much as stated.
Chances of that happening are very very low, being in the west with so many solidified playoff teams or teams who are ahead of us in terms of young players/upcoming picks etc it would take a miracle for us to be playoff ready even by 2020-21.
Lighting could strike and Skal/Willie/Buddy/Pick/Pick could become better than what the Pelicans/Mavs/Nuggets/Blazers/Suns/Lakers/T-wolves and other bottom west teams have but I'm done with hoping for miracles or being overly optimistic. We are nowhere near the position those teams are in most of them have their franchise player locked in. Its time to look around and be realistic for once. We are top level talent and asset depleted.
In my opinion its time to give real basketball executive full autonomy (not fake real like we have had with PDA and Vlade) and let them do their work. It can be Hinkie or whoever, just a legitimate patient guy who gets a minimum 5 years and does not have to look over his shoulder or feel pressured to pull a go all in move when we clearly are not ready for it. And it does not mean Joerger will be fired or anything crazy like that, Heck Brett Brown even got an extension, good coaches don't just get fired like that.
Vivek can keep Vlade/Peja whoever to parade around as PR shields or to make himself feel better but the time to dissect this thing is now.
Well I think the idea is to win as many games as possible. If you can do it like the Spurs and constantly replenish yourself with young talent without ever having a losing season that would be ideal. No fan wants to sit through a 10-72 season like Philadelphia did last year. But even 2 or 3 seasons of complete bottom of the barrel losing would be preferable to a decade of hovering around 30 wins and tooling about shuffling players in and out without ever getting closer to building a winning team. Philadelphia's last playoff game was 5 years ago while ours was 11 years ago. If you look at who was actually on that playoff team in 2006 -- Mike Bibby is retired. Kevin Martin is retired. Brad Miller is retired. Bonzi Wells is retired. Kenny Thomas is retired. Shareef Abdur-Rahim is retired and working in the NBA league office. Jason Hart is retired and an assistant coach at USC. Only Ron Artest is still playing and he's probably done in two weeks. There are young Kings fans who've never seen this team in the playoffs. That to me is abject failure. Not the wins and losses. If sustained winning is the end goal than sustained losing is the worst thing you can do. I'll take a miserable 10 win season if that's what it takes to pull out of a 10 year playoff drought.
Basically I'm for whatever works. We've seen this team try to overpay free agents only to have them take less money to play somewhere else. We've seen them lose trade after trade. We'll never be a big free agent draw unless we transform ourselves into a San Antonio level success story. Winning trades consistently is easier said than done -- it's very hard to build a team that way in the NBA. Danny Ainge has done it twice but he's in rare company. So really it comes down to our ability to scout and acquire young players. Black hole franchises that have successfully bounced back (Memphis, Golden State, Toronto, Washington, you could even count Sacramento in 1999 among them) all did it by acquiring a collection of young talent over a relatively short period of time and letting those players develop together into a team. We now have 4 first rounders from last year's draft, could add 2 more this year (plus 2014 first rounder Bogdan Bogdanovic), and another top player next year. If we manage to get 2 elite talents and 4 or 5 key supporting players out of that mix we'll be on track to follow in those teams' footsteps. And then the hope would be that we morph into a team that is constantly replenishing itself with smart signings and draft selections so we never have to worry about this lottery nonsense again.
If Vlade hands a top 5 pick to the 76ers, he won't need to step down. He'll be fired. I'm pretty sure the looming unprotected 2019 pick heavily influences the strategic planning of many in the Kings front office.
That's why a Sam hinke long term tank plan won't work in Sacramento.
I strongly doubt that. You don't fire a GM for a trade they made two years ago. Either it was a bad risk at the time or it wasn't. None of this "whoops, our lotto combo came up, that means you're fired!"
I don't know. If the Kings at the end of 2018-19 are where Minnesota is now - just outside of the playoffs, but with a handful of young studs primed for a prolonged playoff run - isn't that still a better position than the Kings at the 2017 trade deadline?
You've touched on something that's been nagging me since Martin announced his retirement. Martin was the Kings' future--and the future has come and gone and the team still hasn't made another playoff run. What an awful, awful decade (relocation victory aside, of course).
I agree with the Capt on this. If it was an issue with ownership it should have been dealt with at the time. If we swap it would indeed be unfortunate but a possibility that has been known for some time.
With our ownership it would not surprise me if a firing follows a swap. I just think it would be with veiled legitamacy.
Yall are crazy. He will keep his job if he hits on two of his next three swings in the lottery and the Kings are in a respectable spot when they convey the pick to the 76ers. If the Kings have missed the playoff for 14 straight years, finally pay the bill on the dumb 76ers trade with a top 5 pick ... he's getting fired. He just is.
I agree. But, I'd say this is why the Kings won't do a long term rebuild ... not that it couldn't work. The likely outcomes of a long rebuild are not favorable to the GMs hopes of being there when the tree bears fruit. To that end, the Kings hope to "rebuild" over about 2 years with two 2017 picks, one 2018 pick, and developing some promising players (but not several blue chip prospects.) That's possible, but not exactly a well worn path to the promised land. IMO, they are currently still bad because they put an arbitrary deadline of being good by the time they get into the new arena and then made questionable moves seeking to meet that deadline. Now, because it's either what the owner wants to so Vlade keeps his job, they want to do a rebuild in 2 maybe 3 seasons with three picks (two of them probably in the middle of the lottery) and whomever they can sign with a reputation that almost on par with the late 80s Clippers.
Perhaps for the first time in about 15 years, the Kings should just decide to come of a smart long term plan and then stick to it for say 36 months.
Ill take that too. But do you trust Vlade to get us there based on his transaction history? Minnesota has two solid franchise cornerstones (it took them alot of miserable tanking seasons to get those pieces) is Vlade smart enough to build what they have built.....only faster and skipping prolonged losing? also without the benefit of two #1 overall picks? I mean it would make me feel better to believe that but I'm just trying to look at this more realistically. Im sort of beyond us just out smarting other organizations and jumping them while being at an asset disadvantage or holding onto hope that things like Skal waking up one day and being on the level of KAT etc. Its just not logical to depend on things like that happening.
Realistically whichever kids you pick up this year and next will take 3-4 years to develop( and thats assuming they will be better prospects than what we have now). Even the best rookies do not have as big an impact as they used too. Even Blue Chip prospects are now taking 3 years minimum to being above average winning players.
IMO its a real longshot to think playoffs before the next 3-4 years so why not spend that time and maybe more trying to gear up for a decade long playoff run via asset accumulation instead of cutting the rebuild off at 2019 and jumping the gun on a half-butt playoff run by making win now moves just to save Vlade's job?
Based on what Vlade said after the trade he will feel the heat in 2019 when that pick is due. I want someone in here now that is absolved of that heat and wont make some knee-jerk move to kill whatever we built up in these next two years of losing. I'm done with this perpetual cycle of overhyping ourselves into thinking we have the plan and can do it faster than anyone else. Its time to pay some dues by tanking BUT ACTUALLY BE PATIENT AND SEE IT THRU THIS TIME.
Oh, I thought you were talking about this year's pick. 2019 is s different story.
The main reason we have been bad for so long has less to do with where we picked and more to do with WHO we have picked. You dont pick in the lottery and miss the freaking 8th seed for as long as we have simply because you never picked first. With our track record of missing in the lottery as much as we have if we had landed a top three pick we likely would have screwed that up too.
Poor choices in the lottery coached by mediocre to poor coaches has been our MO and main reason for our sucktitude IMO.
The jury is still out on Vlade's picks. It wont matter where we pick or who does the picking if they are poor choices and or poorly developed. I think most would agree we look better now in regards to developing. We just can not afford any more misses regardless of where we pick them.
Short answer: Vlade put two years deadline for improvement. So that is easy, playoff or nothing.
Longer answer with nuances:
I would be happy if we can end up with two future all stars from these two drafts whether we miss the playoffs or not.
But this was a gamble that was not needed.
Glad your brought up TWolves, great example how probable this gamble is. I would be happy with that scenario even though TWolves were eliminated from the playoff race long ago.
I do not see anyone on this roster on the level of KAT or Wiggins.
How realistic it is that we will get two KAT or Wiggins level players in the next two drafts? If Vlade pulls that off, I am ok to raise shrine in his name.
(I am putting LaVinne and Buddy on the same level for simplicity. Buddy is a rookie, but he is 1-2 years older than any of the above three TWolves players.)
Just drafting one of the players at their level is not good enough, because we already had one.
And this is yet again the master stroke of giving hope but leaving the statement to a number of interpretations.
Going into the All-star break Kings were starting to put it together and kept touch with the play off seed after completing the toughest part of the schedule with the easiest part coming after the all-star break.
Now in a better position in two years SHOULD mean being in a realistic (not mathematic) play off hunt after the all-star break. But of course it won't because the bullpoopoo PR machine and the two faced mouth piece will continue to force the propaganda down our throats how the future is so bring that you need to wear shades. Same old poopoo just a different day. But of course it was all someone's fault. First it was Malone, then PDA/flattop, then Karl, then Cousins. Who is the next scapegoat? Joerger?!