We are .500 in our past 15 games or so. We just picked off a huge win against a top team. Schedule is favorable over next 5 weeks or so, with many winnable games.
If we win more than we lose over this stretch (say until Golden State game Feb 2) our confidence grows and we can keep our eye on the 8th seed. Making the season meaningful from that perspective is within our sights. However if we stumble and go back to winning 1 out of every 4 games, it'll be back to the woodshed for the rest of the season.
BUT... there is a real a chance we can put together a win streak of significant proportions starting right now. If we rattle off 5-7 in a row, 8 of 9, 10 of 12... which is VERY doable against this schedule, then we are knocking on the door of .500 ball at a point in the season that hasn't happened in over a decade, the fan base is juiced, Kings are talk of the town, and we are legitimately making a playoff run.
Kinda funny, being a Kings fan means your playoffs come early, around December, January if we're lucky. But this is essentially a playoff run that we have to start... and have already started, with a great win vs. the Cavs.
So... Enjoy!!
GO KINGS!!!
----------------
Fri, Dec 29
Phoenix
Sun, Dec 31
Memphis
Tue, Jan 2
Charlotte
Sat, Jan 6
Denver
Mon, Jan 8
San Antonio
Tue, Jan 9 @
LA Fakers
Thu, Jan 11
LA Clippers
Sat, Jan 13 @
LA Clipper
Mon, Jan 15 @
Oklahoma City
Wed, Jan 17
Utah
Fri, Jan 19 @
Memphis
Mon, Jan 22 @C
harlotte
Tue, Jan 23 @
Orlando
Thu, Jan 25 @
Miami
Sun, Jan 28 @
San Antonio
Tue, Jan 30 @
New Orleans
The Kings have a 5% chance of making the playoffs and that is me being really really really (x 100) generous!
Before a discussion can be broached about playoff run, the Kings would have to win three in a row. That has yet to occur this season.
Our point differential is now under 10 for the first time since the first week of the season(-9.9 per 100 possessions).
This is still consistent with 55 loss team versus a 60-65 loss team.
There's a reason a bad team will play more inspired after a horrible performance as we have seen the Kings do on occasion and most recently last game. Professional pride kicks in. What happens without this immediate and urgent source of motivation is not there, like tonight?
Any team with a legitimate playoff aspirations that play a B to B+ level game should be handle the Suns on their home court and cruise to 15-20 point win. I don't think the Kings are that good.
Let's project however what a playoff team would look like. Then I will leave it to you (any fan) to surmise the possibility of this occurring:
The Kings are featuring Z-Bo. This is not going to change if we are going to make the playoffs. He's going to be a prominent weapon and offensive hub. Hence the Kings are not going to be a defensive juggernaut. No way no how no chance (the Kings are LAST in defensive efficiency, WORST in the NBA)!!!!
So if the Kings are going to win featuring Z-Bo we have to find a way to get just enough stops in spite of his weak defensive resistance. Z-Bo simply does not possess the mobility or agility to provide that last layer of defense good defensive teams possess.
The Kings are not likely to win a lot of games 95-90 with Z-Bud playing 30 minutes. They are more likely to win games 105-100 or 110-105. This becomes somewhat problematic too because this is not a high powered high octane offense (29th in offensive efficiency, SECOND WORST in the NBA). Z-Bo is not going to be unconscious and unstoppable every game with 25-30 points on 60% shooting so where is the slack going to be picked up?
The logical candidates are Boggy and Buddy.
A playoff team would potentially consist of Z-Bo scoring 20 PPG, Buddy lighting it up (off the bench probably) to tune of 18 PPG and 5 RPG and Boggy upping his scoring aggressiveness and usage and pumping in 15 PPG and 6 APG. You could contend Hill will become more assertiveness and start scoring 15 PPG and this expectation would be reasonable given his contract. I don't see that. I don't see him becoming that player. It is more likely that Buddy and Boggy emerge.
You could say our two rookie PGs will play appreciably better in the second half of the season, especially De'Aaron. There's incremental improvement possible but to expect dramatic elevation is unlikely, especially the "shackles" placed on De'Aaron.
So for the Kings to make the playoffs you would need dramatic upswing in guys potentially capable in Buddy and Boggy and continued trips to the fountain of youth for Z-Bud. Then you can compete in spite of being generous defensively and certainly not capable of lockdown defense with Randolph on the floor. De'Aaron, Willie and others have their issues defensively to compound the challenge on that end.
So this is what I think a playoff team would look like in terms of the main players:
- Buddy 18 PPG 5 RPG
- Randolph 20 PPG
- Boggy 15 PPG 6 APG
- Everyone Else: Maintain or Improve Current Efficiency and Production
This would close the gap on our point differential and enable us to win 60% of our games.
- Zach 15.5 PPG >>>> 20 PPG
- Buddy 12.5 PPG >>> 18 PPG
- Boggy 10.3 PPG >>>> 15 PPG
- Boggy 2.5 APG >>>>6 APG
The prominent players would be defined under this scenario with the increased production wiping away our negative point differential. The odds of this happening would also be predicated on the coach putting these players consistently in position to deliver through playing time and play calls. (I have my doubts in regards to this occuring).
There are other potentially favorable variables such as Skal becoming a productive rotational player, Giles making an appearance, Willie, Jackson and Malachi becoming more consistent presence, and a trade to catalyze and fill the holes. But a playoff team first and foremost has to define how they are going to consistently win. The Kings haven't done that. Their best chance in my opinion is to ride Boggy, Buddy and Z-Bo with the aforementioned levels of production. The odds of this happening are 5% in favor 95% against, commensurate with playoff odds.