Next 5 weeks = Make or Break

Discussion in 'Kings Rap' started by The Hammer, Dec 28, 2017.

  1. The Hammer

    The Hammer Well-Known Member

    We are .500 in our past 15 games or so. We just picked off a huge win against a top team. Schedule is favorable over next 5 weeks or so, with many winnable games.

    If we win more than we lose over this stretch (say until Golden State game Feb 2) our confidence grows and we can keep our eye on the 8th seed. Making the season meaningful from that perspective is within our sights. However if we stumble and go back to winning 1 out of every 4 games, it'll be back to the woodshed for the rest of the season.

    BUT... there is a real a chance we can put together a win streak of significant proportions starting right now. If we rattle off 5-7 in a row, 8 of 9, 10 of 12... which is VERY doable against this schedule, then we are knocking on the door of .500 ball at a point in the season that hasn't happened in over a decade, the fan base is juiced, Kings are talk of the town, and we are legitimately making a playoff run.

    Kinda funny, being a Kings fan means your playoffs come early, around December, January if we're lucky. But this is essentially a playoff run that we have to start... and have already started, with a great win vs. the Cavs.

    So... Enjoy!!

    GO KINGS!!!


    Fri, Dec 29 Phoenix
    Sun, Dec 31 Memphis
    Tue, Jan 2 Charlotte
    Sat, Jan 6 Denver
    Mon, Jan 8 San Antonio
    Tue, Jan 9 @ LA Fakers
    Thu, Jan 11 LA Clippers
    Sat, Jan 13 @ LA Clipper
    Mon, Jan 15 @ Oklahoma City
    Wed, Jan 17 Utah
    Fri, Jan 19 @Memphis
    Mon, Jan 22 @Charlotte
    Tue, Jan 23 @Orlando
    Thu, Jan 25 @ Miami
    Sun, Jan 28 @ San Antonio
    Tue, Jan 30 @ New Orleans
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2017
    slashing4 likes this.
  2. upinsmoke

    upinsmoke Well-Known Member

    I'll say this our early schedule has been brutal. Plenty of B2B's and road trips but if we can find another gear then we'll talk about it if we cross that bridge.
    Russell Pimphustler likes this.
  3. kingsboi

    kingsboi Well-Known Member

    there is no make or break weeks for a lottery bound team, the only break is how soon will the vet movement stop.
  4. Spike

    Spike Well-Known Member

    If we sneak into the 8th, it's all Joerger.
    I'm for coaches getting the respect they deserve. It ain't easy.
    lwc, slashing4, New Era and 3 others like this.
  5. mac

    mac Well-Known Member

    Kings record on Dec 18 last year was 10-17 before a 4 game win streak to bring it to 14-18 by 28 Dec (vs 12-22 now). We've had just as tough a schedule if not tougher, and some good wins over top teams. While playoffs are probably out of the question, and a top pick more beneficial, were this last year (with certain players and posters around) many would be predicting being in the 8 spot hunt come mid March. My take? Kings are looking good and hopefully the young guys continue to get better and Joerger starts playing them more consistently.
  6. The Hammer

    The Hammer Well-Known Member

    It must be something in your DNA that you have to disagree with any premise anyone puts forward. My very simple and understandable point is that this team has a chance to put themselves within striking distance of a playoff spot if they crush an upcoming easy schedule, at a time when they seem to be figuring somethings out and coming off a big win. If they don't capitalize on this, lottery it is, but also would be a mental setback. And by "make" it, I mean taking the next step towards respectability and having a record near .500 in February. That would be the next big step for this team. Would be big big step to see happen this season, but not totally out of the question at this point. And, do I need to add an "in my opinion" here? Or are you going to attack me by saying I'm stating my opinion as fact?

    The bigger point here is that this is a make or break thread for kingsboi. He really has a chance to take the next step in his debate skills by letting go of his habit of being deliberately obtuse, and instead take the premise of an argument on good faith and responding to the intention and meaning of the post.
    dude12, slashing4 and upinsmoke like this.
  7. The Hammer

    The Hammer Well-Known Member

    That's true but there was trouble brewing in Kingsland and you could kind of sense it. Here we have a bunch of young talent the almost, maybe, kinda might be gelling or starting to.

    The January schedule in VERY favorable, as well. Spurs twice are the only really tough games. Every single other game is winnable, and there are at least 7 "should win" games on there.
  8. sactowndog

    sactowndog Active Member

    I think the question is to what end. If the Kings were being led by young guys I would share your enthusiasm. But instead we are being led by old guys on their last legs. We need another strong player this year to make a long run. Our second year players, other than Buddy have not progressed. Giles, Jackson and even Fox are question marks and have not announced their arrival like some of their peers.
    Joshoua likes this.
  9. KingsSelecao

    KingsSelecao Active Member

    If Kings beat the Clips before the Cavs, I might have your back on this. But, Since they didn't, it's the same old Kangz.
    Kings have not shown they can crush anything. If they had any semblance of consistency in 34 games, then I might see it as plausible. But, short term memory tells me they got that ass whooped against the Clips( With no Blake, Galinari, and CP3, Crawford, and Redick gone) a couple nights ago. Sure, beating Cleveland, (Partly due to a fountain of youth game by VC) was nice. But, Kings needs to string a significant winning streak to be talking playoffs. They could still go . 500 in that stretch, but that would still put them 10 games out of .500 for the season. Kings are great at one thing: Mediocrity. They don't have the talent to put together a 7 out of 8 or 8 of 9 run. I don't see it. I don't know how you see it. Based on the past 34 games. Kings could go .500 the rest of the season and they would still miss the playoffs. In addition, enjoy another useless 10-12 pick. The team needs a star. Kings have some nice young talent in Bogdan, Hield, and Maybe WCS. But, none of those players are going to be All Stars.
  10. The Hammer

    The Hammer Well-Known Member

    Hence the "break" part of my post.
  11. upinsmoke

    upinsmoke Well-Known Member

    Thx you! And to kingsboi don't you think we know a lottery pick is where we are likely to end up?! Or are you too busy drumming your narrative to be a well rounded thoughtful poster here? Either way it's tired.
    dude12 likes this.
  12. Larry David

    Larry David Well-Known Member

    For the, it’s cool to chase vet wins now because we can flip the switch and sit our vets in the spring if we fall short crowd, a question.

    Have you factored in the NBA’s new rest rules as well as likely league interaction regarding dressing but not playing your vets this season? It’s purportedly not the same rules this year.
  13. Čarolija

    Čarolija Well-Known Member

    As good and as encouraging as the improvement of this team has been, the truth is this team needs at least another draft with a top 5 pick to start consolidating a core unit that hopefully uncovers a franchise player or two.

    I like how Joerger is making guys earn it and compete. Young players are getting a chance to play some significant minutes. I know some want all youngsters out there but that is just counter productive to their development and franchise looking to build a cluture of competing whenever the team steps on the court.

    Personally, I would like to see a lot more of Skal but there must be something there as to why he is not getting a go. Hopefully, he is working his backside off on what the coaches want him to work on and he is back in the rotation soon. Remember that around this time last year WCS was in the dog house as well not getting any minutes or barely 5 minutes a game. Then about a month before the deadline he started playing a significant role for the team off the bench and often finishing games on the court.

    By the end of this season I see these as being extremely important to the franchise to achieve in order to move forward successfully and not spin the wheels as has been the case for the last decade or so:
    - clearly know what we have in terms of players that we can move forward with and see them as part of a perennial play off team
    - develop a culture of competing and players working their tails off in practice and durimg games. Sure there will be blowouts but that’s expected with young teams.
    - visible improvement in the young players
    - top 5, preferably a top 3 pick
    - chemistry already looks to be great with this team.
  14. sactowndog

    sactowndog Active Member

    My understanding it’s to give Jackson and Malachi some time.
  15. Joshoua

    Joshoua Well-Known Member

    We can’t afford to draft miles bridges over Porter cause we ****ed up and won too much. We’re already playing ourselves away from Doncic
  16. upinsmoke

    upinsmoke Well-Known Member

    Bridges is the player who imo fits best with the squad. Another reason why Im not in the tanking group. That and this franchise needed a complete rebuild from being the hack that it was. What's the purpose of drafting a high pick if he's just going to end up leaving because of the incompetence of the organization? Or having the worst record in the league and picking 4th after all that misery. Unless there is a no question star sitting in the green room tanking sucks again imo.
    John Galt likes this.
  17. Blob

    Blob Well-Known Member

    The Kings have a 5% chance of making the playoffs and that is me being really really really (x 100) generous!

    Before a discussion can be broached about playoff run, the Kings would have to win three in a row. That has yet to occur this season.

    Our point differential is now under 10 for the first time since the first week of the season(-9.9 per 100 possessions).

    This is still consistent with 55 loss team versus a 60-65 loss team.

    There's a reason a bad team will play more inspired after a horrible performance as we have seen the Kings do on occasion and most recently last game. Professional pride kicks in. What happens without this immediate and urgent source of motivation is not there, like tonight?

    Any team with a legitimate playoff aspirations that play a B to B+ level game should be handle the Suns on their home court and cruise to 15-20 point win. I don't think the Kings are that good.

    Let's project however what a playoff team would look like. Then I will leave it to you (any fan) to surmise the possibility of this occurring:

    The Kings are featuring Z-Bo. This is not going to change if we are going to make the playoffs. He's going to be a prominent weapon and offensive hub. Hence the Kings are not going to be a defensive juggernaut. No way no how no chance (the Kings are LAST in defensive efficiency, WORST in the NBA)!!!!

    So if the Kings are going to win featuring Z-Bo we have to find a way to get just enough stops in spite of his weak defensive resistance. Z-Bo simply does not possess the mobility or agility to provide that last layer of defense good defensive teams possess.

    The Kings are not likely to win a lot of games 95-90 with Z-Bud playing 30 minutes. They are more likely to win games 105-100 or 110-105. This becomes somewhat problematic too because this is not a high powered high octane offense (29th in offensive efficiency, SECOND WORST in the NBA). Z-Bo is not going to be unconscious and unstoppable every game with 25-30 points on 60% shooting so where is the slack going to be picked up?

    The logical candidates are Boggy and Buddy.

    A playoff team would potentially consist of Z-Bo scoring 20 PPG, Buddy lighting it up (off the bench probably) to tune of 18 PPG and 5 RPG and Boggy upping his scoring aggressiveness and usage and pumping in 15 PPG and 6 APG. You could contend Hill will become more assertiveness and start scoring 15 PPG and this expectation would be reasonable given his contract. I don't see that. I don't see him becoming that player. It is more likely that Buddy and Boggy emerge.

    You could say our two rookie PGs will play appreciably better in the second half of the season, especially De'Aaron. There's incremental improvement possible but to expect dramatic elevation is unlikely, especially the "shackles" placed on De'Aaron.

    So for the Kings to make the playoffs you would need dramatic upswing in guys potentially capable in Buddy and Boggy and continued trips to the fountain of youth for Z-Bud. Then you can compete in spite of being generous defensively and certainly not capable of lockdown defense with Randolph on the floor. De'Aaron, Willie and others have their issues defensively to compound the challenge on that end.

    So this is what I think a playoff team would look like in terms of the main players:
    • Buddy 18 PPG 5 RPG
    • Randolph 20 PPG
    • Boggy 15 PPG 6 APG
    • Everyone Else: Maintain or Improve Current Efficiency and Production

    This would close the gap on our point differential and enable us to win 60% of our games.
    • Zach 15.5 PPG >>>> 20 PPG
    • Buddy 12.5 PPG >>> 18 PPG
    • Boggy 10.3 PPG >>>> 15 PPG
    • Boggy 2.5 APG >>>>6 APG
    The prominent players would be defined under this scenario with the increased production wiping away our negative point differential. The odds of this happening would also be predicated on the coach putting these players consistently in position to deliver through playing time and play calls. (I have my doubts in regards to this occuring).

    There are other potentially favorable variables such as Skal becoming a productive rotational player, Giles making an appearance, Willie, Jackson and Malachi becoming more consistent presence, and a trade to catalyze and fill the holes. But a playoff team first and foremost has to define how they are going to consistently win. The Kings haven't done that. Their best chance in my opinion is to ride Boggy, Buddy and Z-Bo with the aforementioned levels of production. The odds of this happening are 5% in favor 95% against, commensurate with playoff odds.
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2017
  18. Joshoua

    Joshoua Well-Known Member

    4th is the difference between Porter and Bridges at say 7-10 that’s a big difference. Porter can create offense what we need and Bridges can’t creat his own offense.

    I’m not worried about a guy we draft leaving I have faith in Fox-Hied-Bogdan-WCS and Giles
  19. upinsmoke

    upinsmoke Well-Known Member

    You don't know that nobody does. These are all just prospects at the end of the day.
  20. lwc

    lwc Well-Known Member

    I will admit that I used to be the type of person that beg for as terrible a record as possible to get the best possible draft pick. Then I begin watching winning NBA teams that are not from major markets and realize that they had a different formula than the one I dreamed of.

    Generally, those teams found a young player or two that they thought they could build their franchise around. Once those players were identified and on the team, they begin to nurture and build them into as great of players as possible.

    Along the way they would surround them with the type of players who could best compliment them as well as a veteran players to show them how to prepare, win, and grow.

    The key difference is that instead of constantly tanking to consistently gain higher draft status, they decided to try to win as many games as possible to keep building on and building up the players successes. They would go from 20 wins to 30 wins to 40 wins to top four seeds. Rarely, if ever does a team go from 20 or 30 wins to 50 or 60 in a season or two.

    To me, I see players likes Skal, Jackson, Richardson, and Harry Giles as the equivalent of draft picks for this upcoming season. Players who have either not played at all, not much, or are taking more than a season or two of development to reach their full potential. This team certainly has the young players that they can develop and it even seems as if they have a couple of truly great players they are just a few seasons away.

    Therefore, I say win as many games as possible while still developing the young guys and take whoever is the best player in the draft or create a trade that becomes an asset for the team
  21. Kingster

    Kingster Well-Known Member

    The Cleveland game, among others, showed how Joerger's offense can run when run by players with experience. It also shows that 40 year old Vince Carter has to get a blast from the past in order to beat a team like Cleveland. That just ain't happening very much this year. His performance was a total aberration and I wouldn't be surprised if it ends of to be the game of the year for him. I really believe that you'll see more "experimenting" and more playing of the youth as the season progresses. Joerger and management do not want to end up in the 10th slot for ping pong balls.

    I'm looking forward to seeing Fox and hopefully Giles play a lot in the latter half of January.
  22. VF21

    VF21 #KingsFansForever Staff Member Contributor

    MOD VOICE: You can talk about a poster's comments but making personal comments about his/her posting style, etc. are over the line.
  23. dude12

    dude12 Well-Known Member

    If Sac keeps playing close to .500 ball, I think it's going to be because the young guys are contributing greatly....WCS, Hield, Fox and Mason, Bogi floor sure and then the other young guys who randomly are in the mix like Jackson and Malachi. I think Skal and Papa are a year away from an increased role and I'm ok with that due to their age.

    I don't expect to see Giles but if he lives up to what the team, coaching staff, organization says about him......we are in good shape.
  24. SacTownKid

    SacTownKid Well-Known Member

    If the Kings win too much and are still in a position to draft someone with the potential of Miles Bridges then it's the rest of the GM's that ****ed up. Bridges is a beast.
    Blob and upinsmoke like this.
  25. Joshoua

    Joshoua Well-Known Member

    I wouldn’t say that


    Are all ahead of him easily
  26. The Hammer

    The Hammer Well-Known Member

    Yes, exactly, and that's kind of what I was saying. Now is a unique opportunity for the young guys to really step up. They've got a little road under their tires, and a win streak is there for the taking.
  27. Čarolija

    Čarolija Well-Known Member

    I think it’s pretty clear what type of team the Kings are trying to build. I think the team that the hierarchy is looking to build is similar to the championship winning Detroit teams or the perennial play off teams that Memphis had in Joerger’s time there.

    Essentially those teams didn’t really have a genuine franchise level player but what they had was multiple all-star level/type players. This is why I think that to those in charge, pick position doesn’t matter much as long as its a lottery pick. I would still like a top 3-5 pick simply because it’s easier to access top level talent from there and life is that much simpler if you have a franchise level player or two. You still have to hold up your end of the bargain as a franchise but life is easier with that pillar or two in place.

    At this stage, no one of the current roster has stepped up ad a franchise level talent. A lot of expectations have been placed on Fox and Giles. They might end up turning into those franchise level players but that is at least a couple of years away.
  28. Larry David

    Larry David Well-Known Member

    I think the odds of the Kings making the playoffs is probably generous at 5% and wining 5 more games probably doesn’t change those odds materially.

    Whereas 5 wins can swing their odds of securing a top 3 pick by 40%

  29. Larry David

    Larry David Well-Known Member

    I think y’all are wildly out of whack regarding Giles’ expeactions. The expectations by most here are possible but improbable.

    I like Skal’s odds slightly more than Giles and I’ve always been very skeptical of Skal (even in the spring). Even this summer, when most of you were way too high on Skal and saying the critsism of that was unreasonably negative
  30. Kingster

    Kingster Well-Known Member

    I'm still high on Skal. As far as Giles is concerned, there's been a lot of good conversation coming from the Kings' camp about him, such as that he does more "wow" stuff than Fox. We'll see, and hopefully we'll see very soon.
    Čarolija likes this.

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