Quality analysis on Bagley's Summer League
- Thread starter Double-K
- Start date
It was an analysis of 4 Games. It seemed like a fair analysis of those games. You can make the argument it’s too early but the guy is trying to sell a product. I thought his points were fair and his video substantiation was relevant to his point.
Best to be clear on our expectations now. Bagley isn’t going to be great this year and likely won’t start. That doesn’t mean he can’t be great as he has some incredible physical gifts but he needs some coaching and mentoring. It’s one thing to be one hand dominant. Bagley is left hand exclusive and he is going to have to fix it.
Let’s be clear though, Bagley hasn’t had the coaching others have had. He played in AAU for his father an ex football player. He reclassified as a clear 1 and done in late August. He missed a year of high school and Coach K was going to use him for the strengths he had. No way he try’s to adjust his game in September. That readjustment is for a summer he never had. Those facts should give us all hope.
Best to be clear on our expectations now. Bagley isn’t going to be great this year and likely won’t start. That doesn’t mean he can’t be great as he has some incredible physical gifts but he needs some coaching and mentoring. It’s one thing to be one hand dominant. Bagley is left hand exclusive and he is going to have to fix it.
Let’s be clear though, Bagley hasn’t had the coaching others have had. He played in AAU for his father an ex football player. He reclassified as a clear 1 and done in late August. He missed a year of high school and Coach K was going to use him for the strengths he had. No way he try’s to adjust his game in September. That readjustment is for a summer he never had. Those facts should give us all hope.
People can analyze anything they want, but seems that the prudent thing to do is watch a 10-20 game sample of Bagley playing with his actual teammates, especially Fox and Bogi. He certainly has a lot to work on to be clear but what might he look like with a full training camp with our main coaching staff and team? What might he look like after a month of NBA? 2 months?
I agree that you can’t take a lot from such a limited sample size. But I liked the videos - thought coach Daniel did a good job breaking down the plays. He points out some things we should pay attention to in the preseason. (I know many posters have already pointed the “flaws” out.)
Bagley is a super talented lump of clay. I am looking forward to seeing him grow into his talent this year. If he is as hard a worker as they say - sky is the limit.
Bagley is a super talented lump of clay. I am looking forward to seeing him grow into his talent this year. If he is as hard a worker as they say - sky is the limit.
I can't take a summer league analysis seriously. He's going to have a role in his rookie year that I expect he does quite well in. He's not going to be jacking up 3s when he is defended. He's got enough talent around him so that he doesn't have to be a superstar from Day 1 and can concentrate on doing a few things well, which is going to make life easier and his basketball more efficient. Playing with Fox, Giles, and Bags, all players who can get him the ball when he is open, is going to complement his game. And hopefully, he's going to play in a running offense that takes full advantage of his speed and motor. I expect Joerger is going to play him from 20-25 minutes a game and he's going to have some "wow" moments during the season that is going to have us all looking forward to the following season, very similar to what we experienced with Fox this past season.
Around here, the excuse is it's always too early to analyze these guys. Even after a year or two. Hell, people still get flack for analyzing Willie's play and he's going into his 4th year.
There are certain things you can analyze in summer league like a players 1 on 1 ability in the post or their 1 on 1 defense. The team oriented part of it can be taken with a grain of salt but there are plenty of fundamentals that can be analyzed. Basketball is basketball and while he may get fed more open looks in the regular season by better play making teammates, his 1 on 1 deficiencies will just be exacerbated when playing against full sized NBA veterans.
There are certain things you can analyze in summer league like a players 1 on 1 ability in the post or their 1 on 1 defense. The team oriented part of it can be taken with a grain of salt but there are plenty of fundamentals that can be analyzed. Basketball is basketball and while he may get fed more open looks in the regular season by better play making teammates, his 1 on 1 deficiencies will just be exacerbated when playing against full sized NBA veterans.
IMO I’ll be surprised and disappointed if Bagley plays in between 20-25 minutes per game. Let’s say he plays towards the high end of your expectations and plays about 25 mpg. If you compare that to last season rookie minutes that would rank him at 16th. I think the Kings will be a bottom 5 team, having the second overall pick play limited minutes like that would be terrible. Fox played almost 28 mpg, I would have expected more but Vlade decided to sign a veteran starting PG at 20 mil a season.
Rookies are playing big minutes every season for bad teams and for good playoff teams but for some reason Kings fans don’t expect rookies to play big minutes in Sac.
My expectations for Bagley is to come out and play like he deserved to be the 2nd overall pick.
Rookies are playing big minutes every season for bad teams and for good playoff teams but for some reason Kings fans don’t expect rookies to play big minutes in Sac.
My expectations for Bagley is to come out and play like he deserved to be the 2nd overall pick.
Fox played an average of 27.8 minutes per game last year. That's without anything like the current log jam we currently see with the bigs. At the low end of the range, WCS played 21.4 and 18.9 minutes respectively in his first two years. Joerger mentioned during his summer league interview that he holds back on the number of minutes for rookies, in part because they aren't used to the long season, and he doesn't want to burn them out toward the end of the season. So, using Fox's minutes as a comparable, in part due to the log jam of the bigs, and in part due to the conservative view of Joerger, I think the 20-25 minutes per game is about right. He could play more, (I'll be surprised if he plays over 30 min.) but that's my best guess at this point.
Yeah I don't get the whole babying rookies thing either. Obviously not every rookie is ready to play big minutes but most lottery picks are. For some reason Kings fans want their players babied for years while other teams that actually develop their young players play them big minutes and they turn out just fine. Some people even want Bogdan and Hield to play limited minutes to keep from getting tired. I don't get it.
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A truly terrible SL team:
1. PG Chris Paul 11pts 5r 5a 17per
2. G Jeremy Lin 9p 3r 1a 18per
3. SF Trevor Ariza 10p 4r 2a 18per
4. F Ron Artest 9pts 3r 2a 26per
5. PF David West 6pts 4r 0a 16per
PG Rajon Rondo 10p 4r 5a 18per
G JJ Barea 8p 1r 4a 17per
G Wesley Matthews 7p 1r 0a 12per
F Nicolas Batum 6p 4r 1a 3.18per
C Hassan Whiteside 6p 6r 0a 12per
A SL team that would have convincingly kicked their butts:
1. G Jerryd Bayless 23p 4r 2a 34per
2. SG Wayne Selden 22p 3r 3a 27per
3. SF Adam Morrison 24p 2r 2a 26per
4. PF Jason Thompson 16p 8r 0a 18per
5. C Marreese Speights 18p 10r 0a 20per
G Jordan McRae 21p 2r 1a 29per
G Nolan Smith 18p 3r 2a 34per
SF Alando Tucker 21p 3r 0a 35per
F Montrezl Harrell 16p 8r 1a 22per
C Zhizhi Wang 17p 6r 1a 22per
1. PG Chris Paul 11pts 5r 5a 17per
2. G Jeremy Lin 9p 3r 1a 18per
3. SF Trevor Ariza 10p 4r 2a 18per
4. F Ron Artest 9pts 3r 2a 26per
5. PF David West 6pts 4r 0a 16per
PG Rajon Rondo 10p 4r 5a 18per
G JJ Barea 8p 1r 4a 17per
G Wesley Matthews 7p 1r 0a 12per
F Nicolas Batum 6p 4r 1a 3.18per
C Hassan Whiteside 6p 6r 0a 12per
A SL team that would have convincingly kicked their butts:
1. G Jerryd Bayless 23p 4r 2a 34per
2. SG Wayne Selden 22p 3r 3a 27per
3. SF Adam Morrison 24p 2r 2a 26per
4. PF Jason Thompson 16p 8r 0a 18per
5. C Marreese Speights 18p 10r 0a 20per
G Jordan McRae 21p 2r 1a 29per
G Nolan Smith 18p 3r 2a 34per
SF Alando Tucker 21p 3r 0a 35per
F Montrezl Harrell 16p 8r 1a 22per
C Zhizhi Wang 17p 6r 1a 22per
Fox played the 8th most minutes for rookies. What the hell are you talking about? And he was a skinny 19 year old.....AND they also fit in Frank Mason for an additional 980 minutes at the same position. AND JJ was 14th in minutes for rookies, ahead of Anunoby who is supposed to be much, much better and Toronto’s best defensive wing.
If Bagley can become a ferocious rebounder and play some defense he will be fine. I would love for him to watch video of DeAndre Jordan taking lobs at the hoop. With Fox, Hield and especially Bogdan passing he could be unstoppable. His range will expand over time. Watch the guy get up. He has a lot of hop.
Yes. It's called a general sense of optimism, a trait shared by many humans. It needn't be surprising. Of course, there are also those who, if Bagley had killed it in Summer League would say it was only Summer League but if he had done poorly would cry out woe for the future, but they typically aren't as much fun at parties.
There's a big difference between picking #2 and #5... oh and DONCIC who's already NBA ready and fills a need for this team. Being picked at #2 means you should have the franchise weight on your shoulders. There would've been the same expectations if we had drafted Doncic. Idk, at some point, we have to stop babying our draft prospects. However, Bagley is really young, so he get's a pass for his rookie year, but the expectations are completely rational especially in this very talented draft.
All logical fans knew WCS was a high level role player at best. That's not the same expectation for Bagley..who in theory, should be a bluechip prospect.
All logical fans knew WCS was a high level role player at best. That's not the same expectation for Bagley..who in theory, should be a bluechip prospect.
Dude take a deep breath and actually read the post. We are talking about Bagley and his minutes not Fox.
Any way you slice it if Bagley plays 20-25 min a game it’s going to be because he’s struggling not because he’s killing it. I expect him to play more minutes because I expect him to have a big impact on this team. We aren’t talking about the #2 pick having a big role on a championship team like GS we’re talking about a guy who got drafted by the Kings as a potential franchise player on a bad team. Playing 20 mpg would be a major disappointment.
Any way you slice it if Bagley plays 20-25 min a game it’s going to be because he’s struggling not because he’s killing it. I expect him to play more minutes because I expect him to have a big impact on this team. We aren’t talking about the #2 pick having a big role on a championship team like GS we’re talking about a guy who got drafted by the Kings as a potential franchise player on a bad team. Playing 20 mpg would be a major disappointment.
Ben is the only rookie who we've thrown into the fire with his 26.7 mins, however, we've never played other rookies "lots of minutes". Jimmer played 18.6mpg in his rookie year. T-Rob played 16mpg. Stauskas played 15.4mpg. Willie with 21.4mpg. Papagiannis 0mpg(didn't play at all until tanking time). Richardson 9mpg.
Seems to me like most of our approaches have been slower...and none of them have panned out except for Willie.
I don't think Fox benefited from being brought in slowly. We tried to shield him the best we could... that was hiding him in matchups. Forcing him to play behind George Hill. Taking the ball out of his hands as the 2nd fiddle. Buddy is a 2nd year player, yet he was also given the "low minutes treatment". We all know how well that went.
These kids are our future. We need to see what they can do and see what we have in them. Who cares if they struggle? All you need to see is the potential there. Ingram was a freaking stick coming into the NBA at 18/19yearsold 6'9 180lbs. They gave him 28.8mpg in his rookie year. He didn't put up great numbers: 9.4pts 4rebs 2.1asts 40.2/29.4/62.1. He looked physically overhwelmed and outmatched in the NBA. Even with those negatives, you could see that he was a special talent.
The Kings are going to stop this babysitting BS. Joerger already said so with the training wheels comment. This is the NBA now.
Seems to me like most of our approaches have been slower...and none of them have panned out except for Willie.
I don't think Fox benefited from being brought in slowly. We tried to shield him the best we could... that was hiding him in matchups. Forcing him to play behind George Hill. Taking the ball out of his hands as the 2nd fiddle. Buddy is a 2nd year player, yet he was also given the "low minutes treatment". We all know how well that went.
These kids are our future. We need to see what they can do and see what we have in them. Who cares if they struggle? All you need to see is the potential there. Ingram was a freaking stick coming into the NBA at 18/19yearsold 6'9 180lbs. They gave him 28.8mpg in his rookie year. He didn't put up great numbers: 9.4pts 4rebs 2.1asts 40.2/29.4/62.1. He looked physically overhwelmed and outmatched in the NBA. Even with those negatives, you could see that he was a special talent.
The Kings are going to stop this babysitting BS. Joerger already said so with the training wheels comment. This is the NBA now.
There are some of those on the board, but I think they are a minority.
As for me, De’aaron looked a franchise PG in his game, Giles, aside from some athleticism stop/go issues looked very skilled and I think will be a good player, Gabriel looked a possible diamond in the rough. I consider myself just a objectionist, and not a negativist, and most of the negativity I’ve seen hasn’t been of a trolling nature, but concern for the objectively worst tip pick performance in the field (per professional opinion)
I’m not sure about this being a party, or a forum to discuss a team where questionable things keep happening. “There is negativity because the team is negative”
I didn’t want to offend, or touch upon forum rules, but, IMO if I created a third party poll among NBA fans about whether or not a fan should be concerned about taking Bagley 2 after his SL performance I think the results would be different than on here. I didn’t like being isolated on that. Nor do I feel I’m in the minority despite those two threads. I think there are a lot of positive fans here (not that that is a bad thing)
Any forthright sentiment I have on Bagley is not to bring the forum down, but because I feel let down as a fan. After a decade of misses in the draft, and the standard you have for a number 2 in your mind.. a certain anger comes into it for many fans to see it again
As for me, De’aaron looked a franchise PG in his game, Giles, aside from some athleticism stop/go issues looked very skilled and I think will be a good player, Gabriel looked a possible diamond in the rough. I consider myself just a objectionist, and not a negativist, and most of the negativity I’ve seen hasn’t been of a trolling nature, but concern for the objectively worst tip pick performance in the field (per professional opinion)
I’m not sure about this being a party, or a forum to discuss a team where questionable things keep happening. “There is negativity because the team is negative”
I didn’t want to offend, or touch upon forum rules, but, IMO if I created a third party poll among NBA fans about whether or not a fan should be concerned about taking Bagley 2 after his SL performance I think the results would be different than on here. I didn’t like being isolated on that. Nor do I feel I’m in the minority despite those two threads. I think there are a lot of positive fans here (not that that is a bad thing)
Any forthright sentiment I have on Bagley is not to bring the forum down, but because I feel let down as a fan. After a decade of misses in the draft, and the standard you have for a number 2 in your mind.. a certain anger comes into it for many fans to see it again
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