Matching Players with Draft Pick value

[HighFlyingMonkey]

What do you think is fair pick value (2014 draft) for our roster?

My take:

Cousins: Pick #1-3
McLemore: Pick #5-7
Thomas: Pick #14-17
Vasquez: Pick #18-20
Landry: Pick #18-20
Thompson: Pick #20-23
Thornton: Pick #20-23
Patterson: Pick #25-28
McCallam: Pick #25-28
Jimmer: Second Round

Salmons: Expiring, so value of the pick depends on how much salary we are taking back

Outlaw, Hayes: Negative value, but expire next year

 

[Dreadnought]

The value equates, but no one will trade. Whoever wins the #1 or #2 pick wouldn't trade it for Cousins, and no one in the top 5 would trade it for McLemore. And absolutely no one would give up their lottery to late 1st for any of the guys you listed.

 

[HighFlyingMonkey]

The value equates, but no one will trade. Whoever wins the #1 or #2 pick wouldn't trade it for Cousins, and no one in the top 5 would trade it for McLemore. And absolutely no one would give up their lottery to late 1st for any of the guys you listed.

You're vastly overestimating the value of mid-late first round picks. Most don't even amount to rotation players.

I wouldn't say that nobody would trade a top 1-3 pick for Cousins, especially if he blows up this year, which is looking likely. And if a team is in the top 7 of the draft and has a need at SG, why not look at McLemore? Are the likes of Embiid and Harrison that much better as prospects?

 

[bajaden]

What do you think is fair pick value (2014 draft) for our roster?

My take:

Cousins: Pick #1-3
McLemore: Pick #5-7
Thomas: Pick #14-17
Vasquez: Pick #18-20
Landry: Pick #18-20
Thompson: Pick #20-23
Thornton: Pick #20-23
Patterson: Pick #25-28
McCallam: Pick #25-28
Jimmer: Second Round

Salmons: Expiring, so value of the pick depends on how much salary we are taking back

Outlaw, Hayes: Negative value, but expire next year

Unfortunately, you picked the deepest and most talented draft in the last 10 or 15 years with which to make the comparison. Cousins would definitely be a top 5 pick somewhere, possibly, and should be number 1, but you never know how reputation will affect a GM. Mclemore would be in the lottery, but not top 7 . Probably down around the 12 pick. Lets remember he's still unproven. Thomas somewhere near the bottom of the first or near the top of the 2nd. McCallum and Jimmer would both be second round picks in the 2014 draft. I'd have Patterson , Thornton, and Thompson all in the 25 to 30 range, and Landry somewhere around 17 to 22. Vasquez is the most difficult to figure. He's had one great year, and he brings a lot of intangibles. My guess is somewhere between 15 and 20, which is very close to yours.

The top of the 2014 draft is loaded with big men two of which are most likely lottery picks. 3 to 4 supremely talented SF's. 3 to 4 very talented PF's. There are going to be players out of the lottery, that would have been battling to be top 5 picks in the last draft. Any team that has two lottery picks in this next draft, is going to make a huge jump forward the following season. Hey, its all subjective speculation, but its a fun exercise.

 

[bajaden]

You're vastly overestimating the value of mid-late first round picks. Most don't even amount to rotation players.

I wouldn't say that nobody would trade a top 1-3 pick for Cousins, especially if he blows up this year, which is looking likely. And if a team is in the top 7 of the draft and has a need at SG, why not look at McLemore? Are the likes of Embiid and Harrison that much better as prospects?

Any time you have to choose between a good big man, and a good little man, your always take the big man. Embiid has a ton of potential. He's only been playing basketball for a few years, and his progression has been amazing. You have a 7 footer with a huge wingspan, that also happens to be a great athlete. He could well end up being the first pick in the draft, depending on whose doing the drafting. Which Harrison are you talking about. Andrew, or Aaron? Andrew is probably going to be the best PG in the draft, sorry Marcus. Hey, I love McLemore! I think we got the real deal, but when your projecting the draft, GM's are going to go on accomplishments, and right now, he hasn't got any.

As far as mid to late first round picks, your mostly right, but not in this draft. This is a very very deep draft. There's going to be quality into the second round. Choose wisely, and you have a good player.

 

[Dreadnought]

You're vastly overestimating the value of mid-late first round picks. Most don't even amount to rotation players.

I wouldn't say that nobody would trade a top 1-3 pick for Cousins, especially if he blows up this year, which is looking likely. And if a team is in the top 7 of the draft and has a need at SG, why not look at McLemore? Are the likes of Embiid and Harrison that much better as prospects?

I retort that you are overestimating the value of our players. If it were that easy to trade our players for those picks, we would have done it by now. While I love Jason Thompson and Isaih Thomas as much as the next guy, we don't hear much (read: never) about teams actually interested in any of our players. If our players were THAT good, our team itself would be good. McLemore went #7 in a draft where Anthony Bennett (who I think is a dud) went #1. I'm a HUGE McLemore fan, but that goes to show quality of this most recent draft.

Everything else was said by Baja, and he/she knows their stuff on prospects.

EDIT: Let me emphasize the value of the picks for those respective players equate, I am not arguing that at all. I just know no team will trade for them. Maybe I have a baseball card that is worth $50. It does me none of the kids on the block want it.

 

[twslam07]

What do you think is fair pick value (2014 draft) for our roster?

My take:

Cousins: Pick #1-3
McLemore: Pick #5-7
Thomas: Pick #14-17
Vasquez: Pick #18-20
Landry: Pick #18-20
Thompson: Pick #20-23
Thornton: Pick #20-23
Patterson: Pick #25-28
McCallam: Pick #25-28
Jimmer: Second Round

Salmons: Expiring, so value of the pick depends on how much salary we are taking back

Outlaw, Hayes: Negative value, but expire next year

If that was the actual value of all of our players, I would trade them all right now for those picks. I've said it before, but we have a lot of "junk" and misfitting pieces. I still think this roster needs to be refreshed quite a bit.

I'm even toying with the idea of trading Cousins for the #1 pick to get Wiggins. I love the talent level of Cousins as much as the next guy and think his ceiling is incredibly high, but there will always be a risk because of his attitude. Granted there is a risk trading Cousins for an unproven rookie. I'm not saying I would do it, but I would probably stop and think about it. Now if you proposed the 1st pick of last years draft for Cousins, I would hang up the phone laughing, but Wiggins makes me stop and think. Other than pausing to think on Cousins, I would trade all of our players in a heartbeat for these picks.

Thinking about this realistically, it would be awesome to bring in all of these rookies at once. 1) Our salary level would be incredibly low, giving us the opportunity to sign good free agents. 2) All of these players would be entering their prime at the same time which make our core very strong. 3) Considering we would have basically an all rookie roster (or all-star college roster) our first year, it's likely we would end up with another low pick the following year. Thus bringing in another strong young talent. We could be setting ourselves up easily for a dynasty.

Unfortunately, the value you place on our players is not right especially when taking into account their salary level.

 

[Dreadnought]

If that was the actual value of all of our players, I would trade them all right now for those picks. I've said it before, but we have a lot of "junk" and misfitting pieces. I still think this roster needs to be refreshed quite a bit.

I'm even toying with the idea of trading Cousins for the #1 pick to get Wiggins. I love the talent level of Cousins as much as the next guy and think his ceiling is incredibly high, but there will always be a risk because of his attitude. Granted there is a risk trading Cousins for an unproven rookie. I'm not saying I would do it, but I would probably stop and think about it. Now if you proposed the 1st pick of last years draft for Cousins, I would hang up the phone laughing, but Wiggins makes me stop and think. Other than pausing to think on Cousins, I would trade all of our players in a heartbeat for these picks.

Thinking about this realistically, it would be awesome to bring in all of these rookies at once. 1) Our salary level would be incredibly low, giving us the opportunity to sign good free agents. 2) All of these players would be entering their prime at the same time which make our core very strong. 3) Considering we would have basically an all rookie roster (or all-star college roster) our first year, it's likely we would end up with another low pick the following year. Thus bringing in another strong young talent. We could be setting ourselves up easily for a dynasty.

Unfortunately, the value you place on our players is not right especially when taking into account their salary level.

Wiggins is far and away a better talent than Cousins. If a offer ever came up like that that the public knew about and the Kings turned it down, I would stop being a fan. It's that easy of a decision.

Your strategy works better in video games, albeit, a fun idea. Generally, only like 1/5 draft picks even pan out to be anything useful.

 

[twslam07]

Wiggins is far and away a better talent than Cousins. If a offer ever came up like that that the public knew about and the Kings turned it down, I would stop being a fan. It's that easy of a decision.

Your strategy works better in video games, albeit, a fun idea. Generally, only like 1/5 draft picks even pan out to be anything useful.

I think it's a lot closer than you're making it sound. Cousins is easily a top 5 center right now and has the potential to be the best center in the league. You don't give those type of players up for an unproven rookie who we haven't even seen play in college yet. I've heard the hype, watched some of his highlights here and there, and read many scouting reports. He is a very talented young man who has the potential to be a superstar in this league, but so does Cousins. And at least with Cousins, I know that he will at least continue to be a top 5 center rather than the risk of Wiggins not amounting to anything.

Only a 1/5 of drat picks pan out to anything useful?! Useful? Really? I don't think that statement is close to right even when we take 2nd rounders into account. Since all of these draft pick values are in the 1st round range that makes your statement even more bizarre. Why don't we review some past drafts to see if this "1/5 of draft picks pan out so something useful" comment is at all true.

2007 Draft
Kevin Durant
Al Horford
Mike Conley
Jeff Green
Corey Brewer
Joakim Noah
Spencer Hawes
Thaddeus Young
Rodney Stuckey
Nick Young
Marco Bellinelli
Jared Dudley
Wilson Chandler
Aaron Brooks
Arron Afflalo
Tiago Splitter
Carl Landry
Marcus Williams
Glen Davis
Josh McRoberts
Marc Gasol
Ramon Sessions

21 players divided by 60 players = 35%
15 first round players divided by 30 players = 50%

2008 Draft
Derrick Rose
Michael Beasley
OJ Mayo
Russell Westbrook
Kevin Love
Danilo Gallinari
Eric Gordon
DJ Augustin
Brook Lopez
Jerryd Bayless
Jason Thompson
Brandon Rush
Anthony Randolph
Robin Lopez
Marreese Speights
Roy Hibbert
JaVale McGee
JJ Hickson
Ryan Anderson
Courtney Lee
Kosta Koufos
Serge Ibaka
Nicolas Batum
George Hill
Nikola Pekovic
Mario Chalmers
Deandre Jordan
Omer Asik
Luc Mbah a Moute
Goran Dragic

30 players divided by 60 players = 50%
24 first round players divided by 30 players = 80%

2009 Draft
Blake Griffin
James Harden
Tyreke Evans
Ricky Rubio
Stephen Curry
Jordan Hill
Demar DeRozan
Brandon Jennings
Gerald Henderson
Tyler Hansbrough
Jrue Holiday
Ty Lawson
Jeff Teague
Eric Maynor
Darren Collison
Omri Casspi
Byron Mullens
Taj Gibson
DeMarre Carroll
Wayne Ellington
Toney Douglas
Sam Young
DeJuan Blair
Jonas Jerekbo
Jodie Meeks
Patrick Beverley
Marcus Thornton
Chase Budinger
Nando De Colo
Patrick Mills

30 players divided by 60 players = 50%
21 first round players divided by 30 players = 70%

2010 Draft
John Wall
Evan Turner
Derrick Favors
DeMarcus Cousins
Ekpe Udoh
Greg Monroe
Al-Farouq Aminu
Gordon Hayward
Paul George
Ed Davis
Patrick Patterson
Larry Sanders
Kevin Seraphin
Eric Bledsoe
Avery Bradley
Quincy Pondexter
Greivis Vasquez
Landry Fields
Lance Stephenson

19 players divided by 60 players = 32%
17 first round players divided by 30 players = 57%

2007-2010 draft: 42%
2007-2010 draft (1st round only): 64%

I think it is pretty safe to say that a lot more than 1/5 of draft picks pan out to something useful, and considering in this scenario we would be getting 9 1st round picks, it makes sense to apply that 64% "pan out" rate. That would give us approximately 6 useful players on average while shedding massive amounts of salary which would give us plenty of cap space to sign free agents.

 

[jalfa]

with the way first round draft picks are valued right now, I'm pretty sure there's only one player on the roster that would net one in a trade. not exactly sure if that's the point of this exercise, but that's how I see it. especially with the hype that surrounds next year's class.

 

[randymoss1881]

There's no way you trade Cousins for Wiggins if Cuz wants to be here. Cousins has potential to be a 25-12-3 guy which would be better than a SF giving you 25-8-4. Center is a harder position to fill you get wiggins then you would end up over paying for someone like deandre jordan or Mcgee. People must be selling Cousins when he puts it together and starts getting star calls it's over.
If Cousins reached his potential I would take him over everyone in the league but lebron

 

[Dreadnought]

I think it's a lot closer than you're making it sound. Cousins is easily a top 5 center right now and has the potential to be the best center in the league. You don't give those type of players up for an unproven rookie who we haven't even seen play in college yet. I've heard the hype, watched some of his highlights here and there, and read many scouting reports. He is a very talented young man who has the potential to be a superstar in this league, but so does Cousins. And at least with Cousins, I know that he will at least continue to be a top 5 center rather than the risk of Wiggins not amounting to anything.

Only a 1/5 of drat picks pan out to anything useful?! Useful? Really? I don't think that statement is close to right even when we take 2nd rounders into account. Since all of these draft pick values are in the 1st round range that makes your statement even more bizarre. Why don't we review some past drafts to see if this "1/5 of draft picks pan out so something useful" comment is at all true.

2007 Draft
Kevin Durant
Al Horford
Mike Conley
Jeff Green
Corey Brewer
Joakim Noah
Spencer Hawes
Thaddeus Young
Rodney Stuckey
Nick Young
Marco Bellinelli
Jared Dudley
Wilson Chandler
Aaron Brooks
Arron Afflalo
Tiago Splitter
Carl Landry
Marcus Williams
Glen Davis
Josh McRoberts
Marc Gasol
Ramon Sessions

21 players divided by 60 players = 35%
15 first round players divided by 30 players = 50%

2008 Draft
Derrick Rose
Michael Beasley
OJ Mayo
Russell Westbrook
Kevin Love
Danilo Gallinari
Eric Gordon
DJ Augustin
Brook Lopez
Jerryd Bayless
Jason Thompson
Brandon Rush
Anthony Randolph
Robin Lopez
Marreese Speights
Roy Hibbert
JaVale McGee
JJ Hickson
Ryan Anderson
Courtney Lee
Kosta Koufos
Serge Ibaka
Nicolas Batum
George Hill
Nikola Pekovic
Mario Chalmers
Deandre Jordan
Omer Asik
Luc Mbah a Moute
Goran Dragic

30 players divided by 60 players = 50%
24 first round players divided by 30 players = 80%

2009 Draft
Blake Griffin
James Harden
Tyreke Evans
Ricky Rubio
Stephen Curry
Jordan Hill
Demar DeRozan
Brandon Jennings
Gerald Henderson
Tyler Hansbrough
Jrue Holiday
Ty Lawson
Jeff Teague
Eric Maynor
Darren Collison
Omri Casspi
Byron Mullens
Taj Gibson
DeMarre Carroll
Wayne Ellington
Toney Douglas
Sam Young
DeJuan Blair
Jonas Jerekbo
Jodie Meeks
Patrick Beverley
Marcus Thornton
Chase Budinger
Nando De Colo
Patrick Mills

30 players divided by 60 players = 50%
21 first round players divided by 30 players = 70%

2010 Draft
John Wall
Evan Turner
Derrick Favors
DeMarcus Cousins
Ekpe Udoh
Greg Monroe
Al-Farouq Aminu
Gordon Hayward
Paul George
Ed Davis
Patrick Patterson
Larry Sanders
Kevin Seraphin
Eric Bledsoe
Avery Bradley
Quincy Pondexter
Greivis Vasquez
Landry Fields
Lance Stephenson

19 players divided by 60 players = 32%
17 first round players divided by 30 players = 57%

2007-2010 draft: 42%
2007-2010 draft (1st round only): 64%

I think it is pretty safe to say that a lot more than 1/5 of draft picks pan out to something useful, and considering in this scenario we would be getting 9 1st round picks, it makes sense to apply that 64% "pan out" rate. That would give us approximately 6 useful players on average while shedding massive amounts of salary which would give us plenty of cap space to sign free agents.

I believe you and I have different definitions of useful, considering players like Sam Young who averages 2.8 pts a game to you is useful. You must be enamored with our current Kings roster.

EDIT: You guys can overvalue Cousins all you want, I believe in his potential, but claiming him to be a top 5 center right now is neither here nor there. You guys are the same people claiming Jimmer was supposed to be a top 10 NBA player and how Jason Thompson could be a starter for a championship team.

Double Edit:

Find me team(s) that will trade their picks away for our entire roster. I'll take it. That was not even the argument either, so idk what your attack was for.

 

[twslam07]

I believe you and I have different definitions of useful, considering players like Sam Young who averages 2.8 pts a game to you is useful.

Feel free to nit pick players. Take him out of the list if you would like. It doesn't change the fact that your statement of "1/5 draft picks amount to anything useful" is completely wrong. You're not even close.

You must be enamored with our current Kings roster.

I've said it before, but we have a lot of "junk" and misfitting pieces. I still think this roster needs to be refreshed quite a bit.

Couldn't be more wrong again. Did you not read my post? I've stated on here multiple times that I dislike the makeup of this team.

EDIT: You guys can overvalue Cousins all you want, I believe in his potential, but claiming him to be a top 5 center right now is neither here nor there. You guys are the same people claiming Jimmer was supposed to be a top 10 NBA player and how Jason Thompson could be a starter for a championship team.

Wrong again. It's very sly of you to try to throw me in with those people who think Jimmer would lead us to the promise land or think that Thompson is a starting caliber PF. It was a good attempt at trying to shoot down my credibility, but I have never mentioned anywhere that I think Fredette should be any more than a 5th guard off the bench. As for Thompson, I think he can be a 3rd big off the bench for a championship team, but I've never seen him as a starting PF for a successful team.

Double Edit:

Find me team(s) that will trade their picks away for our entire roster. I'll take it. That was not even the argument either, so idk what your attack was for.

Your strategy works better in video games, albeit, a fun idea. Generally, only like 1/5 draft picks even pan out to be anything useful.

I'm sorry, by this quote it appears that you have little faith in this strategy working especially since you stated "only like 1/5 draft picks even pan out to be anything useful." One would assume by that statement that you have little faith in building a team through the draft. My goal was to show you how many players actually pan out in the draft to persuade you that it would make sense to take all of those draft picks for our players.

On a side note, go Mustangs!!!

 

[bajaden]

I believe you and I have different definitions of useful, considering players like Sam Young who averages 2.8 pts a game to you is useful. You must be enamored with our current Kings roster.

EDIT: You guys can overvalue Cousins all you want, I believe in his potential, but claiming him to be a top 5 center right now is neither here nor there. You guys are the same people claiming Jimmer was supposed to be a top 10 NBA player and how Jason Thompson could be a starter for a championship team.

Double Edit:

Find me team(s) that will trade their picks away for our entire roster. I'll take it. That was not even the argument either, so idk what your attack was for.

You know what, the minute you start with "you people" I lose all interest in having a discussion with you. This isn't about you people, its about a couple of people that simply don't agree with you. And by the way, I thought he made a very good point by listing the drafts and the successes that came out of those drafts. You choose to pick one player that may or may not end up with a good career, and Ignore someone like Chandler Parsons who is a starter, possible future all star, and a second round pick.

You don't like Cousins! Fine, I could care less, you'll jump on the bandwagon at some point. But to compare Cousins with Jimmer is ridiculous, and to be honest, insulting to my intelligence. I will admit that I thought Thompson would be a little better than he turned out, but I'm certainly not disappointed in him. He's a solid journeyman PF in the league, and yes, there are some NBA teams that would love to start him. Now if your looking for Blake Griffin or the next Karl Malone as your standard, then no, he's not them. But if you looking for a complimentry player to put next to a Dwight Howard, then yes, he would be a very nice starter.

What any of this has to do with equating current team players with potential draft picks is beyond me. Actually the whole idea doesn't make sense unless you have a crystal ball.

 

[bajaden]

Feel free to nit pick players. Take him out of the list if you would like. It doesn't change the fact that your statement of "1/5 draft picks amount to anything useful" is completely wrong. You're not even close.





Couldn't be more wrong again. Did you not read my post? I've stated on here multiple times that I dislike the makeup of this team.



Wrong again. It's very sly of you to try to throw me in with those people who think Jimmer would lead us to the promise land or think that Thompson is a starting caliber PF. It was a good attempt at trying to shoot down my credibility, but I have never mentioned anywhere that I think Fredette should be any more than a 5th guard off the bench. As for Thompson, I think he can be a 3rd big off the bench for a championship team, but I've never seen him as a starting PF for a successful team.





I'm sorry, by this quote it appears that you have little faith in this strategy working especially since you stated "only like 1/5 draft picks even pan out to be anything useful." One would assume by that statement that you have little faith in building a team through the draft. My goal was to show you how many players actually pan out in the draft to persuade you that it would make sense to take all of those draft picks for our players.

On a side note, go Mustangs!!!

In regards to your last paragraph, I agree with you. For those that don't think you can build a team through the draft, I'd like to point out that just about every player in the NBA was drafted at some point. The cheapest, and if you smart and do your homework, the best way to build a team, is through the draft. And, as I've tried to point out repeatedly, more and more teams are going to put much more emphasis on the draft as their main rebuilding tool, helped with the occasional trade or freeagent signing. The new CBA is going to force teams to lower their payroll, and therefore, shed the salaries of multimillion dollar freeagents. You may never see a Wade, Lebron, and Bosh on the same team again, and after this season, won't see them all on the Heat.

Everyone always likes the Spur's, and how they manage their team. You'll notice that just about everyone of their core players was drafted by them. They fill in the gaps with freeagents or the occasional trade. But their lifeblood has been the draft, which they continued with Leonard.