Let's Talk Fox...

#1
I don't get to see all the games here in Canada, but when I do catch the Kings on TV, I'm always underwhelmed by Fox on 2 fronts:

1. He doesn't seem to have any playmaking skills or IQ at all. I see him just making the first pass at the top of the key and simply deferring the play running/calling responsibilities to Bogdan (or someone else).

2. He doesn't seem to play good D. For a guy with his speed and above average length for his position, he seems to lose his guy off the a screen almost every time.

What I'm wondering is if my observations are correct? Perhaps I am just pigeon holed with a couple handful of viewings (I hope).
 
#2
i actually see fox expending plenty of defensive effort, pressuring his man. but it often seems like if his man can just keep his dribble alive, eventually fox will overcommit and his man will get by him.

"a" for effort though.

by the way, i am on record as being in favor of trading him while his value is high. a mark price/kevin johnson situation.

as to "playmaking", joerger appears to be a "slow the game" coach (worked in memphis) to where the first few passes are just to work a weave while setting screens and trying to get a favorable "one on one" matchup. almost all of skal's scoring comes this way.

lots of "draw and kick" (for buddy and bogi). freelancing rather than plays being called. that starts with the coach - not the point guard.

i can only think of one time this year where all five players touched the ball in a meaningful way (passing to establish a rotational advantage, rather than just to move the ball) and the last guy shot - that was against the warriors, who do that all the time.

under george karl, that happened all the time, often with willie making the pass that opened things up.

i don't blame fox for that. put him with pop and he could be the next tony parker.
 
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#4
1. His playmaking skills are lacking. He doesn't distribute the ball well, nor does he look to get teammates involved. His overall basketball IQ is good, unless you're talking about passing IQ? He seems to have a solid grasp of the NBA.

2. His D isn't good. His defensive ability was severely overrated coming into the season, and the hype surrounding them actually died down 20 games into the season when everyone realized he was a poor defender. He just didn't have the strength to contain a lot of them. I think a lot of his defensive struggles were also due to his inexperience. I would say he was a poor defender in his rookie year. Jerry event admitted during a game(10 games ago?) that Fox was much improved lately and implied that he struggled in the beginning of the year. Even with all this being said, Fox still has the tools to be a good defender.

I think both concerns are legitimate and real. Hopefully we see big improvements to them next year. I think he's the PG of our future, but I'm still not sold on him being our franchise player of the future.
 
#6
i actually see fox expending plenty of defensive effort, pressuring his man. but it often seems like if his man can just keep his dribble alive, eventually fox will overcommit and his man will get by him.

"a" for effort though.

by the way, i am on record as being in favor of trading him while his value is high. a mark price/kevin johnson situation.

as to "playmaking", joerger appears to be a "slow the game" coach (worked in memphis) to where the first few passes are just to work a weave while setting screens and trying to get a favorable "one on one" matchup. almost all of skal's scoring comes this way.

lots of "draw and kick" (for buddy and bogi). freelancing rather than plays being called. that starts with the coach - not the point guard.

i can only think of one time this year where all five players touched the ball in a meaningful way (passing to establish a rotational advantage, rather than just to move the ball) and the last guy shot - that was against the warriors, who do that all the time.

under george karl, that happened all the time, often with willie making the pass that opened things up.

i don't blame fox for that. put him with pop and he could be the next tony parker.
You're probably jumping the gun with wanting to trade Fox after 1 year. Looking at this draft, who would you replace him with?
 
#8
Young or Doncic but I don’t see us trading him Fox is fine
If there was an opportunity to do a 1 and 1 swap with Fox and Doncic, we'd probably jump on it, but I don't see it happening. I think the FO loves Fox too much to trade him. They spoke extremely highly of him when he got drafted.

I like Young... he could be the next best PG, or he could flop. Fox is much more safe. I wouldn't be mad if we did trade Fox for Young, but I wouldn't advocate for it.
 
#9
There’s far too many on this site drawing conclusions far too soon. Too much desire for instant gratification. The kid just turned 20 this season and hasn’t even finished his rookie campaign yet.

Those old enough will remember the instant gratification we got from Jason Williams during his rookie season. But opponents adjusted and he never played liked that again. He was a serviceable PG but never a great one even once he settled down and reeled his game in.

Conversely, there are numerous examples of players that didn’t show much their rookie seasons that became HOF material after several years. Go look at Steve Nash. Took him until his 5th season before really making a splash.

Some of you need to relax. Rome wasn’t build in a day.
 

pdxKingsFan

So Ordinary That It's Truly Quite Extraordinary
Staff member
#10
He's a rookie at one of the toughest positions with the most expectations in the league. Very young, still filling out his body and has clearly struggled the final 1/3rd of the season, which is to be expected.

Shown the ability to hit game winning shots in the final possession of games at a rate comparable to the best in the league this year.

The rest will hopefully come in years 2-3.
 
#11
There’s far too many on this site drawing conclusions far too soon. Too much desire for instant gratification. The kid just turned 20 this season and hasn’t even finished his rookie campaign yet.

Those old enough will remember the instant gratification we got from Jason Williams during his rookie season. But opponents adjusted and he never played liked that again. He was a serviceable PG but never a great one even once he settled down and reeled his game in.

Conversely, there are numerous examples of players that didn’t show much their rookie seasons that became HOF material after several years. Go look at Steve Nash. Took him until his 5th season before really making a splash.

Some of you need to relax. Rome wasn’t build in a day.

are you referring to the jason williams who got a ring in miami?

yes, he was third banana, but maybe that is where fox is destined to finish.

or the steve nash who had really never played against top flight competition until he came to the nba?

fox has been playing against top flight competition for many years now (aau/college). sure he is 20, but so was chris paul when he came to the nba. do you believe that de'arron fox is the next chris paul or damon lillard? both were seen as top talents their first year in the league and averaged 35 minutes per game as rookies.

problem with fo x is, yes, you can wait, but if he doesn't live up to his draft status, you will get less for him over time. when a guy comes into the league and has a basically poor season punctuated by a few highlight reel plays, you should make a decision. either stay with him and hope he improves or find a team who will give you great value for him.

only because we have mason (very adequate), bogi (who can play the point, at least offensively), buddy, who needs to be on the court in the clutch (as does bogi) and temple (when you need a defender at the end of games) can we entertain acquiring the frontcourt player we need for one of our guards. mason won't bring enough - judging by draft status (and because all that most people have seen of fox is on highllight plays on sportscenter), i'm guessing fox has the most value.

we are fine in the backcourt, even without fox (frank, bogi, buddy, temple). we are NOT fine in the frontcourt. this is the late 80's again - trading kj and keeping price (the lesser talented pg) led to 11 straight playoff seasons for phoenix, seven of eight for cleveland. where is our larry nance?

if you could get kahwai leonard and say, patty mills, for fox and our #1 would you do it?

i would, but i'd think longand hard about the $200+ million salary investment, but talent-wise, i don't think twice. fox for kahwai (and the salary price tag) straight up is a no-brainer.

it isn't that i don't like fox - i do - it's just that others have stepped forward while he is still coasting on "potential". so, sadly, he becomes the odd man out (assuming that his value has not slipped.)

let me put it this way (in assessing his value and/or value slippage):

if you did last year's draft over, would he still be #5?

obviously mitchell passes him, probably smith jr, maybe even kuzma?
 

pdxKingsFan

So Ordinary That It's Truly Quite Extraordinary
Staff member
#12
Mike Bibby played against top notch competition, won a NC in college and was drafted 5 spots ahead of Jason Williams and 2 full seasons later it was seen as a fairly even trade yet today that move was lopsided. Point guards take time.
 
#13
DeAaron is GREAT defensively

Perimeter defense is much more 5 on 5 than you think

If Fox only had to worry about his man on the other end then that would allow Fox to be praised as the top 3 defensive PG he is the ENTIRE nba
 

gunks

Hall of Famer
#14
Fox has been pretty trash outside of a few games and clutch moments.

But we really need to give him time. If he doesn't improve at all next season, we might try to bank on "potential" and sell high, but I think it's a long shot that he doesn't come back better next season.

If we trade him this draft, I'd be pretty disappointed in the FO. Unless we somehow get Ayton or Doncic coming back.
 
#15
Does Phoenix need a point guard? Trade Fox/WCS for Ayton which they draft number 1 overall. Then draft Doncic at our number 2 overall pick after a great lottery. Start Bogdan, Buddy, Doncic, Giles, Ayton. Me make a kidd of course :) .
 
#16
are you referring to the jason williams who got a ring in miami?

yes, he was third banana, but maybe that is where fox is destined to finish.
Yep. That guy.

Your assertion that his being part of a title team somehow means something is ridiculous. Derek Fisher was part of 5 title teams yet never averaged more than 13 points and 4 assists. Dude was a role player. Lots of role players have titles. You're skirting the point that Jason Williams shot out of a cannon his rookie season and looked to be all world, but never lived up to the potential.

After 1 season, Tyreke Evans looked like a better draft pick than Steph Curry. But how'd that look after 3-4 seasons and now?

or the steve nash who had really never played against top flight competition until he came to the nba?

fox has been playing against top flight competition for many years now (aau/college). sure he is 20, but so was chris paul when he came to the nba. do you believe that de'arron fox is the next chris paul or damon lillard? both were seen as top talents their first year in the league and averaged 35 minutes per game as rookies.
You're making some really poor arguments.

Nash may have went to a small school, but he was a top 15 pick for a reason. Furthermore, he was playing against top flight competition his first few years in the NBA wasn't he? It still took him til year 5 to show something significant.

AAU is not top flight competition. They're may be some good players there, but most never reach the NBA. Fox is still really green with only 1 season of college and now 1 year of NBA experience.

Comparing any player to the exceptions that hit the ground running is flawed. Players develop at different rates.

Jason Kidd didn't destroy his 1st season in the NBA. But he turned out pretty good, didn't he?
How about Mike Conley, Tony Parker? Mike Bibby? Kevin Johnson? The list can go on and on.

The crux of the point is, nobody knows FOX's future after year 1. He could turn out to be a disappointment or he could still meet or exceed his potential.
 
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kingsboi

Hall of Famer
#17
Fox is a teenager with the body of a high school girl, it's a given that he will get bullied around in the NBA playing with grown men and his best tool right now to score and be effective is his speed. He doesn't need to be a natural distributor, if he grows into more of a scoring PG, I'm fine with that considering the teams lack of offense and he can share ball handling duties with Bogs.

Secondly, his defensive potential is there, I've stated this all ready in another thread about Fox and I'll have to preach it again, once he grows into his frame and packs on some more muscle and within time, expands his game, he can at the very least be a menace on the defensive end and provide 15-18 PPG and that's fine with me so long as the Kings have the number one option.
 
#18
I don't like what I see and I'm not an instant gratification guy. Too many things need to go right in order for him to become a good player.

Fox's rookie season is the worst of any of the decent point guards in the league. By FAR. Dennis Schroder is the only decent PG whose rookie season is even in the vicinity of Fox's. The odds are very low of him becoming average and astronomically low for him ever becoming our #1 guy.

If I can get Doncic with Fox/our pick, I'm doing it.
 
#19
It's too early to give up on Fox, but he's on notice to come back markedly improved next year in both strength/weight, shot selection, shooting %, getting into the paint vs. settling for jumpers, increased Assist %, lower turnover % and rebounding. Yeah... he's got quite a lot to work on, and the brutal facts are, with a PER of 11.22 and the aforementioned issues, he's a disappointment for a top 5 pick thus far.

Looking at his numbers when compared to other PGs, he's a combo guard who settles for far too many midrange jumpers but doesn't make many of them. You can live with a combo guard if they can score - and score efficiently - and build around that talent accordingly. He thus far, can not score efficiently:
  • The midrange problem: He's taking more midrange shots than 91% of the PGs in the league but is in the bottom 3rd (28%) in accuracy. He should be going into the paint more, but 32% of his shots are taken there (was 55% in college) as his lack of strength prevents him from getting to the basket...thus he settles for jumpers.
  • Three point shooting: we all knew this going in, but it hasn't gotten much better. Hovering at 30% with two attempts per game, he'll need to bring this above the Antoine Walker level (33% or above) next season.
  • Let's say he never fixes his jumper, maybe he can become a better PG vs a combo? There's lots of room to improve:
  • His assist rate of 24% is in the bottom 28% for PGs in the league
  • If he can't improve his passing, he needs to cut turnovers, currently at 14.8%.
  • He's sporting a nasty 1.87 A/TO ratio. You want a true starting PG to possess at least a 2:1 ratio.
  • Keep in mind, he's never been more than a combo guard... so we might want to set expectations accordingly. This ain't J-Will boys and girls.
Defensively, there's some plusses and big holes:
  • he's a good shotblocker for a PG, with a block rate of 0.6%
  • he's average in terms of steals (1.5%) good for 43% of all PGs. Not bad for a rookie who needs to gain 30 lbs.
  • he's fouling too often, good for bottom 3rd of the league, but chalk this up as a good thing (effort) and not a worry (when compared to steal rate and the fact he's a rookie).
  • his lack of rebounding is a big problem: he's in the bottom 3rd of all PGs in both offensive and defensive rebounding. It's not like someone is stealing rebounds from him, this is a poor rebounding team! Adding strength and effort will be key here.
Health will be another factor... other than freak accidents which can derail careers, or players who don't put in enough consistent effort in their diet and exercise: skinny guys simply have a shorter shelf life.

Right now, Fox is playing like a fringe backup. His passing and shooting haven't drastically improved throughout his up-and-down season. This offseason - and next - is absolutely crucial to his career and hopes of becoming a true starting guard. Adding strength and weight this offseason will be of the utmost importance... and not that Kristaps Porzingis "I didn't gain much weight but added a lot of strength!" baloney, actual muscle that can last through the season. This will help his ability to get to the line and not settle for jumpers, defend larger guards, and rebound better. Then, he needs to keep working on his jumper, and watch film/get more reps to become a better passer who takes care of the ball.

Honestly, I think Fox will round out to be a good player in time if he puts the right work in. As a fan, I'm very hopeful - and nervous - about the kind of offseason that he puts in, as it's crucial that - given our lack of assets and high draft pick/no draft pick next summer - he maximizes his potential.
 
#20
It's pretty mind boggling how some people are talking about Fox like he sucks or should he traded. Dude is a rookie and showed plenty of promise of what's to come in the future. Not everybody can have a rookie season like Mitchell, it doesn't mean they suck or should he traded before their value goes down, that's laughable.

Give him time. He is very talented and a hard worker. Seems like some people started watching the NBA over the last couple years and have no idea how the vast majority of players develop.
 
#21
I have no idea. He certainly could develop into an All-Star. Many point guards need time to figure out how to run NBA offenses instead of simply relying on their skills. And some don't and they remain pretty streaky. Some players learn to shoot well.

Fox could do both. But, he's going to have to do both. People like to bring up Mike Connelly, but that kid know how to run an NBA offense during his rookie season. He needed time to hone his craft, but he know how to run an offense. He wasn't as effective because he couldn't shoot and defenders went under screens on him.

Fox has immense physical tools. But, he needs to master two things that are not easy for many prospects to master.

It's too early to say he's in trouble long term. It's also unreasonable to say he's certainly on track and just needs time.
 
#22
It's pretty mind boggling how some people are talking about Fox like he sucks or should he traded. Dude is a rookie and showed plenty of promise of what's to come in the future. Not everybody can have a rookie season like Mitchell, it doesn't mean they suck or should he traded before their value goes down, that's laughable.

Give him time. He is very talented and a hard worker. Seems like some people started watching the NBA over the last couple years and have no idea how the vast majority of players develop.
It’s better to be negative than positive I guess
 
#23
It's too early to say he's in trouble long term. It's also unreasonable to say he's certainly on track and just needs time.
No it's not. This is exactly what I expected out of Fox having watched him at Kentucky, although his shot-making in pressure situations has been an added bonus. Anyone that watched him at Kentucky knew he is an electrifying athlete, good defensive potential, solid passer and IQ but not outstanding, and will need time to really develop into what he can become. That doesn't mean he'll definitely turn into an all-star, but it's inaccurate to state that it's unreasonable to say he's on track. His shot has probably been slightly better than expected.

Here is the real issue with expectations. Some people don't watch college ball, which is absolutely fine. What's not fine, is then applying inaccurate and unrealistic expectations on a player, and then declaring them as having under-delivered or as being sub-par prospects. You don't get to choose what a player's game should look like based on your own desires. If you're going to have a strong opinion on what to expect from a rookie, you better have done your homework when he was in college. This is a general point, not specifically to Larry David or anyone else. But there's definitely multiple posters in this thread who it applies to.
 
#24
It's too early to give up on Fox, but he's on notice to come back markedly improved next year in both strength/weight, shot selection, shooting %, getting into the paint vs. settling for jumpers, increased Assist %, lower turnover % and rebounding. Yeah... he's got quite a lot to work on, and the brutal facts are, with a PER of 11.22 and the aforementioned issues, he's a disappointment for a top 5 pick thus far.

Looking at his numbers when compared to other PGs, he's a combo guard who settles for far too many midrange jumpers but doesn't make many of them. You can live with a combo guard if they can score - and score efficiently - and build around that talent accordingly. He thus far, can not score efficiently:
  • The midrange problem: He's taking more midrange shots than 91% of the PGs in the league but is in the bottom 3rd (28%) in accuracy. He should be going into the paint more, but 32% of his shots are taken there (was 55% in college) as his lack of strength prevents him from getting to the basket...thus he settles for jumpers.
  • Three point shooting: we all knew this going in, but it hasn't gotten much better. Hovering at 30% with two attempts per game, he'll need to bring this above the Antoine Walker level (33% or above) next season.
  • Let's say he never fixes his jumper, maybe he can become a better PG vs a combo? There's lots of room to improve:
  • His assist rate of 24% is in the bottom 28% for PGs in the league
  • If he can't improve his passing, he needs to cut turnovers, currently at 14.8%.
  • He's sporting a nasty 1.87 A/TO ratio. You want a true starting PG to possess at least a 2:1 ratio.
  • Keep in mind, he's never been more than a combo guard... so we might want to set expectations accordingly. This ain't J-Will boys and girls.
Defensively, there's some plusses and big holes:
  • he's a good shotblocker for a PG, with a block rate of 0.6%
  • he's average in terms of steals (1.5%) good for 43% of all PGs. Not bad for a rookie who needs to gain 30 lbs.
  • he's fouling too often, good for bottom 3rd of the league, but chalk this up as a good thing (effort) and not a worry (when compared to steal rate and the fact he's a rookie).
  • his lack of rebounding is a big problem: he's in the bottom 3rd of all PGs in both offensive and defensive rebounding. It's not like someone is stealing rebounds from him, this is a poor rebounding team! Adding strength and effort will be key here.
Health will be another factor... other than freak accidents which can derail careers, or players who don't put in enough consistent effort in their diet and exercise: skinny guys simply have a shorter shelf life.

Right now, Fox is playing like a fringe backup. His passing and shooting haven't drastically improved throughout his up-and-down season. This offseason - and next - is absolutely crucial to his career and hopes of becoming a true starting guard. Adding strength and weight this offseason will be of the utmost importance... and not that Kristaps Porzingis "I didn't gain much weight but added a lot of strength!" baloney, actual muscle that can last through the season. This will help his ability to get to the line and not settle for jumpers, defend larger guards, and rebound better. Then, he needs to keep working on his jumper, and watch film/get more reps to become a better passer who takes care of the ball.

Honestly, I think Fox will round out to be a good player in time if he puts the right work in. As a fan, I'm very hopeful - and nervous - about the kind of offseason that he puts in, as it's crucial that - given our lack of assets and high draft pick/no draft pick next summer - he maximizes his potential.
I think your offensive stats are illuminating. On defense his in ability to stay in front of his man, anticipate and fight through screens, and to make the right switch are concerning.

I call it the Kentucky culture because you see the same stuff from Skal and Willie. Nobody at Kentucky plays team basketball because no one was around for more than a year. I think Willie is a lost cause, Skal is working to get better, Fox I just don’t know.
 

Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
#25
No it's not. This is exactly what I expected out of Fox having watched him at Kentucky, although his shot-making in pressure situations has been an added bonus. Anyone that watched him at Kentucky knew he is an electrifying athlete, good defensive potential, solid passer and IQ but not outstanding, and will need time to really develop into what he can become. That doesn't mean he'll definitely turn into an all-star, but it's inaccurate to state that it's unreasonable to say he's on track. His shot has probably been slightly better than expected.

Here is the real issue with expectations. Some people don't watch college ball, which is absolutely fine. What's not fine, is then applying inaccurate and unrealistic expectations on a player, and then declaring them as having under-delivered or as being sub-par prospects. You don't get to choose what a player's game should look like based on your own desires. If you're going to have a strong opinion on what to expect from a rookie, you better have done your homework when he was in college. This is a general point, not specifically to Larry David or anyone else. But there's definitely multiple posters in this thread who it applies to.
De'Aaron is third in his draft class in assists per game (4.4 v. DSJ's 5.1 v. Lonzo's 7.2) and 7th in PPG. It's not like he's out there having Jimmer performances every night.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#27
I think because of Fox's build and his rookie status he's worn down during the course of the season. He's obviously taking games off and plays off toward the end of the season, and it just looks to me that he's tired and trying to conserve energy. A priority for him during the off-season is going to be strength and conditioning so that he can put out the effort for 90% of the games he plays instead of 50% of the games. He has outstanding defensive and offensive potential, but until he gets the strength and conditioning needed for the NBA grind, he's only going to show it every now and again, rather than on a consistent basis.
 
#28
No it's not. This is exactly what I expected out of Fox having watched him at Kentucky, although his shot-making in pressure situations has been an added bonus. Anyone that watched him at Kentucky knew he is an electrifying athlete, good defensive potential, solid passer and IQ but not outstanding, and will need time to really develop into what he can become. That doesn't mean he'll definitely turn into an all-star, but it's inaccurate to state that it's unreasonable to say he's on track. His shot has probably been slightly better than expected.

Here is the real issue with expectations. Some people don't watch college ball, which is absolutely fine. What's not fine, is then applying inaccurate and unrealistic expectations on a player, and then declaring them as having under-delivered or as being sub-par prospects. You don't get to choose what a player's game should look like based on your own desires. If you're going to have a strong opinion on what to expect from a rookie, you better have done your homework when he was in college. This is a general point, not specifically to Larry David or anyone else. But there's definitely multiple posters in this thread who it applies to.
Well this is what happens when fans and the media overhype young players. He came into the season with "John Wall 2.0" labels. The only thing either of them have in common is that they're both PGs who played at Kentucky who couldn't shoot. Fox was heavily regarded by most as a future allstar and superstar before he even played a single game. There's still an idea among fans that he's a future all-star. If he gets that much praise, then it's only fair he deserves the same amount of criticism.

As I said above, I don't agree with trading Fox. I think the talks are way too early. In general I think some people just expected too much out of him because of all the preseason hype. Kings heavily marketed him as our future. You have media personnel like Grant Napear calling him the next big thing.
 
#29
I wish people would stop with the strawman arguments on here. Just because someone says that Fox is not playing well, doesn't mean that their expectation is for him to play like Mitchell.

It's not about being positive or negative. Look at the advanced stats on the guy and then compare them to other rookie PGs at his age and you're going to be hard pressed to find very many players who have been as bad as him and then developed into good players.

Searching through some recent stats, Dennis Schroder, Zach LaVine, Norris Cole, Emmanual Mudiay, Austin Rivers, Shane Larkin, Dante Exum and Shelvin Mack are the only guys I've seen so far that have had rookie seasons even comparable to Fox's. Mudiay's is the only one that is truly comparable. My eyes tell me he's bad, even for a rookie, but the analytical data tells me he's really really bad. If you looked at Dennis Smith Jr's regular stats you'd say he's having a comparable season to Fox but the advanced stats say he's been much much better.

Basically DSJ has to take 3 steps to become Damien Lillard while Fox has to take about 9 steps to get there. I'm not saying that Fox will never become a good player. There are a couple good players in that list I posted above, but the odds of him reaching that level are very low because if you search you'll find a handful of bad players for every one good player you find that were as bad as Fox their rookie seasons. Plus I was just searching for decent named guys that are still in the league. I'm sure you'd find way more no name guys who washed out if you looked harder.
 
#30
I don't like what I see and I'm not an instant gratification guy. Too many things need to go right in order for him to become a good player.

Fox's rookie season is the worst of any of the decent point guards in the league. By FAR. Dennis Schroder is the only decent PG whose rookie season is even in the vicinity of Fox's. The odds are very low of him becoming average and astronomically low

If I can get Doncic with Fox/our pick, I'm doing it.
Jamal murray, Kris dunn, kyle lowry, and mike conley all had terrible rookie seasons too. All things considered, I actually don't think foxs has been that bad for a 20 year old twig who supposedly had no jump shot at all.