kings win coin flip

B

Boogie-havoc

Bench
#6
#6
All tie breakers included, pre lottery order :

1. Bobcats - (25%)
2. Wizards - (19.9%)
3. Cleveland - (13.8%)
4. Hornets - (13.7%)
5. Sacramento - (7.6%)
6. Portland(via Nets top 3 protected) - (7.5%)
7. Warriors(Utah'z pick, top 7 protected) - (3.6%)
8. Raptors - (3.5%)
9. Detroit - (1.7%)
10. Hornets(via Minnesota) - (1.1%)
11. Portland - (0.8%)
12. Bucks - (0.7%)
13. Suns - (0.6%)
14. Houston - (0.5%)

----------------------------------------

15. Sixers
16. Houston(via Knicks)
17. Dallas
18. Minnesota(via Utah)
19. Orlando
20. Denver
21. Boston
22. Boston(via Clippers)
23. Atlanta
24. Cleveland(via Lakers)
25. Memphis
26. Indiana
27. Miami
28. Oklahoma City
29. Chicago
30. Golden State(via Spurs)
 
Padrino

Padrino

All-Star
#7
#7
well there's a piece of good news. the lottery is what it is: a lottery. charlotte set the record for most futile win/loss record (by percentage) in the history of the nba. yet its still no guarantee that they'll get the first pick in the draft. in fact, very few teams with worst-in-the-nba status have, in recent history, actually ended up with that first pick. everything's chance. its all coin flips and random selections. you can't engineer it, no matter how much "tanking" you accomplish as an organization. this is why i did not root for a single "lin" this season. the kings drafted tyreke evans at #4 in 2009, and demarcus cousins at #5 in 2010. with the right coaches and mentors, there is simply no reason that those two players cannot become the cornerstones of this franchise moving forward. i said it in 2010. i said it in 2011. i'm saying it now, and i'll continue to say it until either player is traded or walks in free agency. would it be nice to win the lottery and snag anthony davis at #1? of course. but that'd just be icing on the proverbial cake when the kings have two of the best players in the last three drafts already on their roster. either way, whoever they end up drafting is just icing on that cake...
 
Capt. Factorial

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#9
#9
And now the numbers!

1st: 7.6%
2nd: 8.4%
3rd: 9.5%
4th: --
5th: 26.2%
6th: 38.5%
7th: 9.4%
8th: 0.4%
9th+: --

That means we've got about a 25.5% chance of getting a top-three pick. Our highest likelihood is to land at #6, and #5 or #6 is pretty likely (64.7%). The odds of dropping two spots to #7 (like we did last year) are even lower than the odds of getting #3. The odds of dropping three spots are vanishingly small.
 
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sidney

sidney

Starter
#11
#11
Capt. Factorial said:
And now the numbers!

1st: 7.6%
2nd: 8.4%
3rd: 9.5%
4th: --
5th: 26.2%
6th: 38.5%
7th: 9.4%
8th: 0.4%
9th+: --

That means we've got about a 25.5% chance of getting a top-three pick. Our highest likelihood is to land at #6, and #5 or #6 is pretty likely (64.7%). The odds of dropping two spots to #7 (like we did last year) are even lower than the odds of getting #3. The odds of dropping three spots are vanishingly small.
Click to expand...
Weird that with the 5th pick we have a higher chance of picking 6th than 5th.
 
Kingster

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#13
#13
Capt. Factorial said:
And now the numbers!

1st: 7.6%
2nd: 8.4%
3rd: 9.5%
4th: --
5th: 26.2%
6th: 38.5%
7th: 9.4%
8th: 0.4%
9th+: --

That means we've got about a 25.5% chance of getting a top-three pick. Our highest likelihood is to land at #6, and #5 or #6 is pretty likely (64.7%). The odds of dropping two spots to #7 (like we did last year) are even lower than the odds of getting #3. The odds of dropping three spots are vanishingly small.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the numbers.
 
Capt. Factorial

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#15
#15
sidney said:
Weird that with the 5th pick we have a higher chance of picking 6th than 5th.
Click to expand...
That's just the way it works until you get to the #6 slot. All the way down to there, given that you don't hit the lottery, the odds of at least one team jumping you are better than the odds of no teams jumping you. 6th spot and below, you're more likely to stay put.
 
Kingster

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#17
#17
Capt. Factorial said:
And now the numbers!

1st: 7.6%
2nd: 8.4%
3rd: 9.5%
4th: --
5th: 26.2%
6th: 38.5%
7th: 9.4%
8th: 0.4%
9th+: --

That means we've got about a 25.5% chance of getting a top-three pick. Our highest likelihood is to land at #6, and #5 or #6 is pretty likely (64.7%). The odds of dropping two spots to #7 (like we did last year) are even lower than the odds of getting #3. The odds of dropping three spots are vanishingly small.
Click to expand...
Capt, what is the probability for the 4th slot? It looks like we have a very good probability of getting a top 5 pick (interpolating what #4 would be).
 
Warhawk

Warhawk

Give blood and save a life!
Staff member
#18
#18
Kingster said:
Capt, what is the probability for the 4th slot? It looks like we have a very good probability of getting a top 5 pick (interpolating what #4 would be).
Click to expand...
We can't get the 4th. The lottery is only through 1-3, and if we don't win it either we stay at 5 or go to 6-8 if others jump ahead of us.
 
Capt. Factorial

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#23
#23
Kingster said:
Capt, what is the probability for the 4th slot? It looks like we have a very good probability of getting a top 5 pick (interpolating what #4 would be).
Click to expand...
Warhawk's response above is correct. I just didn't want to put in 0% because at a careless glance one might think it was (any old number) rather than 0.
 
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