[Game] Kings v. Spurs - 10/27/16 - 7:30 PM PDT

#1
That's how you start a new season :)

The Kings christen a new arena tonight, begin a new era, and do so in bold and confident spirits with 1-0 record following their unadulterated thrashing of the baby-faced Suns.

In my Game 1 preview, I predicted a final of 110-93, off by a total of 4 points (113-94). I will try to do better next time. ;) I also predicted the starting line-up, fairly obvious two weeks into camp, the first man off the bench, and primary variables conducive to comfortable route, namely minimizing TOs (only 13 after leading the pre-season), denying open 3s (4-16, 25% for the Suns), and pounding the paint, which Kings did in the second quarter with the bench mob, and third with Boogie time.

What I did not expect (or predict) was Temple looking like Andre Miller in his prime, smooth as butter with his mid range (6-8 FGs). I also expected Lawson to work defensively, but did not expect him to be as effective as he was, holding Bledsoe to 16 points and 4 TOs.

The difference between Lawson's tenacity on the floor versus Rondo, even Collison, with willingness to pick up 3/4th court, is sharp. Lawson has a bit of a bulldog in him, with low center of gravity, unafraid of contact. To delay a team getting into their set even by 2-3 seconds shortens the clock by that much with an out-front effort that is contagious.

The Kings won despite their backcourt going 5-16 FGs, Boogie playing 25 minutes, and Koufos wearing the oven mitts for hands like he wore last season (1-6 FGs).

To Koufos credit, he was stellar in second quarter defensively, as the good guys surged to an 18 point margin.

Joerger introduced a nice wrinkle. He took Lawson out of the game early in 1st, subbing with Temple. He did so to bring Lawson back in to start the second, a deft move to give second unit more natural QB. Look for Joerger to sub out Lawson early tonight to provide more stability to second team as primary ball handler.

Besides the issue of competence, and not looking like something out of the King Tut exhibit on the bench, I noticed a difference between Joerger and Karl in regards to foul trouble. Joerger sat Boogie longer with two fouls in the 2nd, and longer with 4 in the 4th. Karl was more willing to gamble.

This bears watching as the season wears on, including tonight.

I think this can be a positive in disguise. If Boogie knows when he picks up reaching fouls he is going to sit for a prolonged time, unlike last year, I think he will be more inclined to defend with his feet than hands. It is a hard habit to break when the opponent shows the ball not to swipe at it. I also love Boogie's willingness to give up his body to draw offensive charges. But there has to be a middle ground between commitment to defend and ability to stay on the floor.

For my liking, Boogie was a bit too demonstrative over fouls, with incredulous look a handful of times. At what point do we conclude, especially with Joerger emphasis on D, that Boogie is going to be foul prone for rest of his career? Our best player avoiding chronic foul trouble is going to be key to making the playoffs.

I loved Boogie's enthusiasm from the sidelines, especially in 1st quarter when we raced out to a 12 point lead. The whole bench was up, lead by his ebullience. This is good, a collective attitude that Karl did not engender with his aloofness and cranky arrogance.

Barnes is going to squeeze Omri for minutes, who drew Joerger's wrath for two careless TOs. The perimeter defense may be the most dramatic change from season ago, led by Ben, Affalo, Temple and Ty. The only hole I saw was Rudy, whose lateral agility does not look to be improved much since his Achilles treatment.

Joerger's D did seem to allow for switching. It appears if a guy is not a baller and defenders are of like size, switching is permitted. If a guy is baller, no switching, or else you are likely to get burned. In other words Rudy and Omri will switch on Marquis Chriss. If Chris Paul has the ball, switching is forbidden to keep your best defender on him.

Now onto tonight:

The joint will be jumping and the guys in black will be intent on crashing our party. When Joerger looks at the Spurs, he has to envision a team he would like to emulate. The Spurs are a methodic, precise, structured execution machine with a lot of player movement and unselfishness. They are stingy as heck on defense with mistakes called out (see Pop) not overlooked (see Karl). Its hard to beat a team that does what you want to do better.

Yet we match up with well with them with the exception of SF. I think Rudy will take this match-up personally, as chance to get make a statement against the DPOY in Kawhi, who is a guy that also looks like Top 10 scorer with the retirement of Timmy and the decline of their guards.

No prediction tonight, because I will never predict a Kings loss! But I will say if we can get the game over 100 points, our chances improve. If the game is in the mid 80s or 90s, edge to Spurs. Watch Jonathon Simmons off the bench. He is a havoc maker of the Gerald Wallace mold. Boogie can dance on Aldridge and Gasol by pulling them away from basket, shake bake and eviscerate. :cool:

If Boogie tries to bully in the paint without space or edge, he's going to get denied and frustrated. And if he goes begging for a whistle, it is only going to preclude a long night. There are not a lot of easy baskets to be had versus the Spurs, so it would be nice if we can make 3s (looking at you Ben) and force TOs and change ends in a blaze of glory.

Oh what the heck, I will make a prediction:

Kings 99
Spurs 94

Let's do this!
 
#3
Normally I'm not a fan of the KK & Cousins starting tandem, but tonight is an exception with how big the Spurs are. I think we can bully their bigs too, what other team can say that?

Keys for the Kings to win

1. Cousins has to be able to get to the line and disrupt the Aldridge & Gasol duo. Get them in some foul trouble early and it should help a great deal
2. We need an A game from Rudy. Make Kawhi work on both ends of the floor, Rudy doesn't need to outscore him or anything, but needs to make him work hard all night
3. Get out and run when we can. Be it Lawson pushing the ball, Barnes throwing outlet passes, make those older Spurs bodies work
4. Limit Turnovers, we can't be careless with the ball tonight
5. Tolliver gets hot from 3

We do all that, and Cousins stays out of foul trouble we have a chance.
 
#4
I live in Southern California and am considering taking a half day and making the drive up. Problem is, I'm needed at work tomorrow so I'd have to head back down right after the game, getting in around 5 am. Likely not doing it, but I have an hour or two to decide.

I cant stand the thought of missing tonight! It's going to be amazing.
 
#8
Nice thoughts.
Blob, your score prediction with the Kings-Suns game was almost on point. As a skeptic who thought Bledsoe/Booker/Knight would light us up, I will not question your prediction powers ever again!

I wish I could be there for home opener :(
Have fun to everyone who's attending! Need to get that W!
 
#9
I live in Southern California and am considering taking a half day and making the drive up. Problem is, I'm needed at work tomorrow so I'd have to head back down right after the game, getting in around 5 am. Likely not doing it, but I have an hour or two to decide.

I cant stand the thought of missing tonight! It's going to be amazing.
IFLYSWA
 
#11
This might be a game where playing big could work. It depends on the kind of offense the Spurs play since they have a great pnr guard in Parker and two capable mid-range bigs.
 

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
#12
These are the Spurs, but an interesting observation would be just how similarly we are built/matchup:

2 near 7 foot big men inside
6'7"-6'8" big physical SF
quick, or formerly quick, penetrating PG

in fact if you went position by position amongs the starters this would be fair:

Pau v. Kostas --> Edge: Pau
LMA v. Boogie --> Edge: Boogie
Kawhi v. Rudy --> Edge: Kawhi
Anderson v. Afflalo --> Edge: Afflalo
Parker v. Lawson --> Even, or at this point maybe even edge Lawson


But as I say, these are the Spurs, so you don't expect to beat them. But I do expect us to matchup with them and hang tough. We've got a lot of competitive sized bodies to throw at Kawhi, our guardline is at least as good, and Boogie vs. Pau/LMA is a good showdown.
 
#14
It is the Spurs and they looked mighty good vs. the Warriors. Then again, we are due some MAJOR good karma. We need Cousins and Rudy to have great games, as well as someone unexpected to have a great game. Maybe Ben Mac or Matt Barns. As others have said, play as hard as you can and I will be happy.
 
#15
It will be interesting to see traditional lineups go at each other. Pau's mobility has dropped off enough that he's a liability on defense at this point. Expecting the Kings to attack him. For the Spurs, Kawhi has owned Rudy Gay for the past couple of years. Rudy will have to play smart tonight or he'll end up with a ton of turnovers. Game will probably be decided by the benches. Simmons is an explosive player, and Manu always has solid games against the Kings, even at his age.
 
#16
I live over seas where espn2 has the clippers vs blazers instead of the kings vs spurs in the grand opening of the new arena.
That and a rested spurs team in Sac while our guys are coming off a b to b road game. I hope the Kings win this and we start getting a bit of respect.
 
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kingsboi

Hall of Famer
#20
Won't be upset one bit when the Kings lose this one, the Spurs are going to do what the Spurs do and that's take care of teams like the Kings...I'd like to see them compete, but even if that doesn't appear so, I'll be content with that and move on to the next one.
 

Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
#28
The thing is that Pau was really bad defensively against the Warriors but Golden State's big man line-up is essentially freeloading Zaza, ring-chasing old dude David West, and Javale McGee so nothing really bad came out of it.

We have Boogie.