Home Court is Mathematically Possible

T

TonyFiat

Prospect
#1
#1
It's a long shot, but still possible......
If the Kings go 3-1;
The Rockets go 3-0 (this would include a win over Denver); and
The Sonics go 0-4......

Then, the seeds shake out like this:

3- Seattle (50-32)
4- Dallas
5- Houston (51-31)
6- Kings (51-31)
7- Denver

Houston holds the tiebreaker over the Kings because of a better conference record. If Denver only loses their game against Houston the rest of the way, then they will also be 50-32, but the Sonics win the division because of head-to-head.

All of this adds up to the Kings having home court in the 1st round vs. Seattle. It might not be as far-fetched as it seems, although the probability is pretty low. The way the season's gone, it's hard to predict what the Kings will do in any single game, much less over the course of 4 of them. Seattle plays their next game at home against the Hornets, which should be a gimmie for a division leader....then again, the Sonics have dumped 6 in a row. After that game, they go on the road to Minny, Dallas, and Houston....all pretty tough. Houston's remaining games are all at home against Denver, the Clips, then Seattle.

Outside of the Kings games, the biggest ones toward making this happen are NO @ Sea tomorrow and Den @ Hou on Saturday. If those games are won by the Hornets and Rockets, then this might look a little more possible.
 
Warhawk

Warhawk

Give blood and save a life!
Staff member
#3
#3
TonyFiat said:
It's a long shot, but still possible......
If the Kings go 3-1;
The Rockets go 3-0 (this would include a win over Denver); and
The Sonics go 0-4......

Then, the seeds shake out like this:

3- Seattle (50-32)
4- Dallas
5- Houston (51-31)
6- Kings (51-31)
7- Denver

Houston holds the tiebreaker over the Kings because of a better conference record. If Denver only loses their game against Houston the rest of the way, then they will also be 50-32, but the Sonics win the division because of head-to-head.

All of this adds up to the Kings having home court in the 1st round vs. Seattle. It might not be as far-fetched as it seems, although the probability is pretty low. The way the season's gone, it's hard to predict what the Kings will do in any single game, much less over the course of 4 of them. Seattle plays their next game at home against the Hornets, which should be a gimmie for a division leader....then again, the Sonics have dumped 6 in a row. After that game, they go on the road to Minny, Dallas, and Houston....all pretty tough. Houston's remaining games are all at home against Denver, the Clips, then Seattle.

Outside of the Kings games, the biggest ones toward making this happen are NO @ Sea tomorrow and Den @ Hou on Saturday. If those games are won by the Hornets and Rockets, then this might look a little more possible.
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Isn't home court in the first round determined by seeding, not by record?
 
VF21

VF21

Super Moderator Emeritus
SME
#5
#5
I'm not even going to try and follow the logic of all this.

;)

I'm just gonna wait a few more days and let the Sacramento Bee spell it out nice and clear for me.

:D
 
Warhawk

Warhawk

Give blood and save a life!
Staff member
#6
#6
You're right - my bad. For some reason I thought the first round advantage went by seedings. Very interesting. Completely improbable (as you said, a long shot), but interesting.... :)

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/matchups

"The division winner with the best record in each conference is seeded No. 1, the other division winners are seeded No. 2 and No. 3 and the remaining six teams are seeded Nos. 4 - 8 according to their won-lost records. (Home-court advantage in all playoff series is determined by better won-lost record, not higher seeding.)"
 
Purple Reign

Purple Reign

Starter
#7
#7
TonyFiat said:
Home court goes to the team with the better record. Seeding has nothing to do with it.
Click to expand...
Are you sure? I know that it is like that in the second round. The Kings did not have home court against the Mavericks in 2003 even though the Kings won their division and the Mavericks did not. But I am pretty sure that home court is decided by seeding not by record in the first round only.
 
hrdboild

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
#8
#8
^^ This, by the way, is all new this year with the reorganization of the divisions, which is why there's been so much confusion. In the past seeding was determined by record, so home court advantage did coincide with having the higher seed. Now that the top 3 spots are given to the division leaders, it's possible to have a higher seed and not have home court advantage.
 
Purple Reign

Purple Reign

Starter
#9
#9
Warhawk said:
You're right - my bad. For some reason I thought the first round advantage went by seedings. Very interesting. Completely improbable (as you said, a long shot), but interesting.... :)

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/matchups

"The division winner with the best record in each conference is seeded No. 1, the other division winners are seeded No. 2 and No. 3 and the remaining six teams are seeded Nos. 4 - 8 according to their won-lost records. (Home-court advantage in all playoff series is determined by better won-lost record, not higher seeding.)"
Click to expand...
Did not know that. :eek: Interesting.
 
Twix

Twix

Starter
#10
#10
Making the PO is already good enough for me...But If Kings have a shot of getting home court in the first round (every little thing will help)...I'm all for it! :D

Thank you for the stat, Tony!
 
hrdboild

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
#11
#11
Actually, what interests me the most about the above analysis is this part:

It's a long shot, but still possible......
If the Kings go 3-1;
The Rockets go 3-0 (this would include a win over Denver)

Then, the seeds shake out like this:

5- Houston (51-31)
6- Kings (51-31)

Which means, if we go 3-1 (seems likely) and Houston goes 3-0 (against Denver, Clippers, Seattle), then we still lose the 5 spot because of the tiebreaker. It's looking more and more like we'll be facing Seattle in the first round. But then again, the way this season has gone, anything can happen.
 
N.U.F.A.N.

N.U.F.A.N.

Bench
#14
#14
I dont really care about home court... going on the road in the PO's and stealing one first would give us more confidence comming come during the series. It puts more pressure on the home court team.
 
G

GoSACtown

Bench
#15
#15
N.U.F.A.N. said:
I dont really care about home court... going on the road in the PO's and stealing one first would give us more confidence comming come during the series. It puts more pressure on the home court team.
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lol stealing game 1 on the road means nothing.....see: last year against twolves.....we had game 2 stolen also, until we choked......
 
Twix

Twix

Starter
#16
#16
N.U.F.A.N. said:
I dont really care about home court... going on the road in the PO's and stealing one first would give us more confidence comming come during the series. It puts more pressure on the home court team.
Click to expand...
That's true... but if you were to ask any player and coaches if they have a chance to get home court, they'll take within a second.
 
Catalyst

Catalyst

G-League
#17
#17
TonyFiat said:
It's a long shot, but still possible......
If the Kings go 3-1;
The Rockets go 3-0 (this would include a win over Denver); and
The Sonics go 0-4......
Click to expand...
Cool post Tony. I enjoy these funny scenarios at the end of the season that could happen. Thanks for sharing.
 
D

Diehard Jim

Bench
#19
#19
this will not matter because at the current positionings the sonics and kings would have to meet in the WCF and then the kings oculd possibly have HCA not going to happen though
 
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