[Grades] Grades v. Jazz 12/8/2015
- Thread starter Bricklayer
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The team ball in this win was great to see. Sometimes we were making too many passes! And I'd way rather see that than selfish basketball.
The main concern I have right now is how teams can basically get open three point shots at will against us. I was actually shocked to see that we're in the middle of the league in opponent three point field goal percentage:
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/team/_/stat/defense-per-game/sort/threePointFieldGoalPctOpponent
However, we're second to last in opponents three point field goals made per game. My guess is this helping down low is Karl's defensive game plan. Play small ball, help in the paint when teams try to take advantage of that, and make people beat you with jump shots. I hate seeing so many people get open three point shots against us though.
Only other gripe is with Cuz at the end of the game. His antics when he fouled out at then end of the game need to be addressed internally. The game was over, he totally fouls his man, and goes crazy at the ref when the foul is called on him. Hopefully Rondo or someone has a chat with him because if we're going to make a run, we need him to be a little more mentally stable in there.
The main concern I have right now is how teams can basically get open three point shots at will against us. I was actually shocked to see that we're in the middle of the league in opponent three point field goal percentage:
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/team/_/stat/defense-per-game/sort/threePointFieldGoalPctOpponent
However, we're second to last in opponents three point field goals made per game. My guess is this helping down low is Karl's defensive game plan. Play small ball, help in the paint when teams try to take advantage of that, and make people beat you with jump shots. I hate seeing so many people get open three point shots against us though.
Only other gripe is with Cuz at the end of the game. His antics when he fouled out at then end of the game need to be addressed internally. The game was over, he totally fouls his man, and goes crazy at the ref when the foul is called on him. Hopefully Rondo or someone has a chat with him because if we're going to make a run, we need him to be a little more mentally stable in there.
It's not a guess. It's exactly what the plan is. As a team we score a ton of points in the paint and the goal is to also shoot corner 3s throughout the game, which is theoretically the easiest 3pt shot. So we score consistently and efficiently night in and night out. The gamble is that the opposing team can't shoot a high enough percentage of jump shots to beat us. In essesnce, our offense is our defense. It's why Karl is so quick to go with a bunch of guards when we need to stop the momentum of the other team.
I suspect the fans will be upset about our perimeter D all season, because this is Karl's plan. This is what analytics gives you.
I suspect the fans will be upset about our perimeter D all season, because this is Karl's plan. This is what analytics gives you.
I'd like to see somebody do it, anyway. Anybody. I'm convinced that, if it fails, it'd be because of how the coach instructs his team to play defend.
I'm sick of watching every team try to match up to the new hotness. Coach to your personnel, preach defense, and trust in it. Just once, I'd like to see a team say, "**** it, we're not going to bother trying to match up with you. If we stay big for forty-eight minutes, you can't stop us, either. Let's see what kind of rhythm you're able to get into when somebody doesn't let you set the pace." Like, I hate to make this sound like I'm making it just about the Warriors but, like, the Warriors are basically playing a big game of chicken with the rest of the league. They're pretty much out there, like, "You know what? You're going to blink first. You might have some success against our defense early with your big lineup, but you're going to blink first. Because, we're going to come out firing from three, so you're not going to bother trying to figure out if we can actually shoot over your big lineup for forty-eight minutes. You're not going to bother trying to figure out if we can keep this up if your bigs get our glue guys in foul trouble. You know why? Because you're going to blink first. You're going to see us score forty in the first quarter, and you're going to panic, and you're going to abandon your principles, and try to go small to match up with us. And that's when we've got you!"
If we had a coach who preached defense first, last and in-between, I'd love to see a lineup of Rondo, Casspi, Gay, Cauley-Stein and Cousins. That's a lineup that could do some things, but you'd have to pull a Hinkie and Trust the Process™. That's not a squad that you could quit if the payoff wasn't immediate, but I'm sure that our coach would.
I'm sick of watching every team try to match up to the new hotness. Coach to your personnel, preach defense, and trust in it. Just once, I'd like to see a team say, "**** it, we're not going to bother trying to match up with you. If we stay big for forty-eight minutes, you can't stop us, either. Let's see what kind of rhythm you're able to get into when somebody doesn't let you set the pace." Like, I hate to make this sound like I'm making it just about the Warriors but, like, the Warriors are basically playing a big game of chicken with the rest of the league. They're pretty much out there, like, "You know what? You're going to blink first. You might have some success against our defense early with your big lineup, but you're going to blink first. Because, we're going to come out firing from three, so you're not going to bother trying to figure out if we can actually shoot over your big lineup for forty-eight minutes. You're not going to bother trying to figure out if we can keep this up if your bigs get our glue guys in foul trouble. You know why? Because you're going to blink first. You're going to see us score forty in the first quarter, and you're going to panic, and you're going to abandon your principles, and try to go small to match up with us. And that's when we've got you!"
If we had a coach who preached defense first, last and in-between, I'd love to see a lineup of Rondo, Casspi, Gay, Cauley-Stein and Cousins. That's a lineup that could do some things, but you'd have to pull a Hinkie and Trust the Process™. That's not a squad that you could quit if the payoff wasn't immediate, but I'm sure that our coach would.
I like that lineup. Could be a killer. The only problem here is the second unit. While I believe that BenMc could easily score even more than Casspi, the unit would need a leader and playmaker. Unfortunately I'm not too impressed about Collison's playmaking lately. BenMc needs touches. Collison must change his style if that would be the lineup.
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Really need to snap off a 5-6 game winning streak here to get back on track. Think the team needs to build some momentum and some confidence. Ben is starting to play better. Liking the ball movement. If Rudy can play this season like he did last night (I'm not saying he needs to shoot 10-13) but just playing fluidly and within the team movement I think he can get back to last year's Rudy.
I almost feel like Karl should implement some sort of 3 second rule with Rudy. If he doesn't have a shot within 3 seconds, move the ball. I know that might make some of his post-ups less effective, but overall would make him better for the team.
I almost feel like Karl should implement some sort of 3 second rule with Rudy. If he doesn't have a shot within 3 seconds, move the ball. I know that might make some of his post-ups less effective, but overall would make him better for the team.
In your proposed lineup, the biggest problem is that the floor spacing still sucks.
The reason why we were so successful last night was because we actually had 2 guys who can shoot the 3 ball...Ben and Casspi. While Rudy is a decent 3pt shooter, his game is best when he's closer to the rim and attacking, not spaced out and ball watching.
Casspi would be our only floor spacer, and we'd still have the same problem we'd have with Ben. To make things a bit more complicated, Casspi s a guy who cuts to the basket much more than Ben does (his given role), and it would cause problems down-low with Cousins and WCS.
However, interesting enough, one of our best lineups are:
Rondo-Belinelli-Casspi-Cousins-Kofus
Offrtg: 112.5 Defrtg 85.9 +26.6
82.8 AST%
Pace-109.76
It just goes to show you that floor spacing is extremely important. I don't think Casspi provides the same floor spacing for a SG like Ben or Belli does.
The reason why we were so successful last night was because we actually had 2 guys who can shoot the 3 ball...Ben and Casspi. While Rudy is a decent 3pt shooter, his game is best when he's closer to the rim and attacking, not spaced out and ball watching.
Casspi would be our only floor spacer, and we'd still have the same problem we'd have with Ben. To make things a bit more complicated, Casspi s a guy who cuts to the basket much more than Ben does (his given role), and it would cause problems down-low with Cousins and WCS.
However, interesting enough, one of our best lineups are:
Rondo-Belinelli-Casspi-Cousins-Kofus
Offrtg: 112.5 Defrtg 85.9 +26.6
82.8 AST%
Pace-109.76
It just goes to show you that floor spacing is extremely important. I don't think Casspi provides the same floor spacing for a SG like Ben or Belli does.
Quite insane when you think about it.
The Steph/Klay/Barnes/Iggy/Green lineup has an OffRtg of 154.7 and a DefRtg of 84.8. That's a NetRtg of 69.9!
There isn't another small ball lineup league-wide who comes close to that. But these modern NBA fools still, game after game, try beat GS by going small and fall right into their trap. We've seen how well that's worked. There's one team I'd put my money on to muck their small ball. SA. And it's because Pop might be the only coach who's fully confident and disciplined in his system and doesn't bend to others.
But I agree with Slim, what no one is trying is going big, physical, rough em up a little bit and offer a real counter-approach to GS. NBA coaches actually resemble teenagers, just follow the recent trend while being scared of individual identity. What ever happened to this is me, that is you, we'll do what we do, you do what you do and we'll see what happens between the lines.
I'm reminded of Pho during the Nash era. Not as potent as GS but a similar style. But back then the better teams wouldn't cater to the small ball, they'd stay big and try to rough them up. And Pho never got to the Finals during that era even with the back to back MVP in Nash. Doesn't mean that would work against GS but going small sure isn't working.
The Steph/Klay/Barnes/Iggy/Green lineup has an OffRtg of 154.7 and a DefRtg of 84.8. That's a NetRtg of 69.9!
There isn't another small ball lineup league-wide who comes close to that. But these modern NBA fools still, game after game, try beat GS by going small and fall right into their trap. We've seen how well that's worked. There's one team I'd put my money on to muck their small ball. SA. And it's because Pop might be the only coach who's fully confident and disciplined in his system and doesn't bend to others.
But I agree with Slim, what no one is trying is going big, physical, rough em up a little bit and offer a real counter-approach to GS. NBA coaches actually resemble teenagers, just follow the recent trend while being scared of individual identity. What ever happened to this is me, that is you, we'll do what we do, you do what you do and we'll see what happens between the lines.
I'm reminded of Pho during the Nash era. Not as potent as GS but a similar style. But back then the better teams wouldn't cater to the small ball, they'd stay big and try to rough them up. And Pho never got to the Finals during that era even with the back to back MVP in Nash. Doesn't mean that would work against GS but going small sure isn't working.
I couldn't disagree more... teams have tried to go big against this lineup and failed (what I feel about small-ball in general can be summed up by this article).
Memphis tried that in the playoffs (and lost by 50 this year) and the Cavs tried that at the finals.. other teams tried that like Houston in last year playoffs and here is a story about it (link):
The basis for that is that they have 5 guys that can shot the 3 in that lineup, and if you leave one of them open they will make you pay so starting 2 bigs isn't gonna work on the defensive side of the ball.
On the offensive side there is only so much you can do:
The only place you can really punish them is rebounding, and the Cavs had some success with that- but bear in mind that if you'll try to crush the glass with 2 bigs on the floor you are going to get killed in transition when the small team gets the rebound.
You need a pretty special bigs to beat Warriors small-ball.
And I think that in general it's not a good idea to play WCS and Cousins against small-ball- WCS can't punish a small-ball team on the boards OR punish them with scoring over mismatches... and defensively he'll have to choose between going out to the 3pt line to defend the shooter (and then he is no better than Casspi) or keep a shooter wide open.
Going big just to go big is meaningless, you have to have a reason for that... to sum it up:
Memphis tried that in the playoffs (and lost by 50 this year) and the Cavs tried that at the finals.. other teams tried that like Houston in last year playoffs and here is a story about it (link):
The basis for that is that they have 5 guys that can shot the 3 in that lineup, and if you leave one of them open they will make you pay so starting 2 bigs isn't gonna work on the defensive side of the ball.
On the offensive side there is only so much you can do:
The only place you can really punish them is rebounding, and the Cavs had some success with that- but bear in mind that if you'll try to crush the glass with 2 bigs on the floor you are going to get killed in transition when the small team gets the rebound.
You need a pretty special bigs to beat Warriors small-ball.
And I think that in general it's not a good idea to play WCS and Cousins against small-ball- WCS can't punish a small-ball team on the boards OR punish them with scoring over mismatches... and defensively he'll have to choose between going out to the 3pt line to defend the shooter (and then he is no better than Casspi) or keep a shooter wide open.
Going big just to go big is meaningless, you have to have a reason for that... to sum it up:
Houston and Cleveland tried it for a little while, and it worked. For a little while. What happened then was just what I said happened: they blinked first. Whenever Golden State gets off to a quick start, their opposition folds, like they're holding a 3-6 off-suit. They start out playing big, but they panic when the Warriors start hitting those threes. Instead of playing the odds and saying, "Okay, but you're only going to be able to keep this up as long as we allow you to get away with playing Draymond Green at center; if we stay true to ourselves, you're going to slow down," instead of doing that, they all chicken out, and try to match up to Golden State. And they can't. Basically what happened in the Finals is that David Blatt chickened out, and decided that they weren't going to call enough fouls on Golden State to make his system worthwhile; he didn't stay true to his principles. It's not like the Warriors were shutting down Mozgov, he was killing those guys.
The only team that's actually tried to stay big for a whole game against the Warriors is Memphis. And they are too old and too shallow to pull it off. Hell, defense-oriented as I am, I would be tempted to concede the points and wear them out on the other end; I'd be subject to be like, "**** it, you're going to get tired of shooting threes before I get tired of shooting layups."
The only team that's actually tried to stay big for a whole game against the Warriors is Memphis. And they are too old and too shallow to pull it off. Hell, defense-oriented as I am, I would be tempted to concede the points and wear them out on the other end; I'd be subject to be like, "**** it, you're going to get tired of shooting threes before I get tired of shooting layups."
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What I don't understand is what happened to "adopt a system that maximizes the strengths of your roster" strategy? Is that not fancy enough for today's NBA? Somebody said here earlier - Karl is coaching based on what players he wishes he had, not who he actually has. This seems to be what's plaguing most of the teams trying to replicate GSW.
Yup, game after game, this appears to be our whole strategy. We are BEASTLY down low! We did not draft WCS for offense, nor do i think Koufos or Moreland are really here for offensive purposes, for the most part. Why are the guards constantly helping out down low?! It just makes no sense. Let the big fellas handle the post. We legitimately have one of the best defensive big man rotations in league, let em do their thing, and stop leaving the perimeter wide open. It's becoming a shooters league and if there was every a year to prioritize wing defense over the post, the time is now.
Unless we can tighten up those glaring defensive weaknesses, i don't see us posting any better than a .333 win percentage.
EDIT: I just looked on NBA.com and it looks like we;re 2nd to last in defending the 3 pt shot, and we're last in opponents number of 3's taken per game (as in, teams are taking the most 3's per game against us). Adapt or die...
Unless we can tighten up those glaring defensive weaknesses, i don't see us posting any better than a .333 win percentage.
EDIT: I just looked on NBA.com and it looks like we;re 2nd to last in defending the 3 pt shot, and we're last in opponents number of 3's taken per game (as in, teams are taking the most 3's per game against us). Adapt or die...
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The Spurs have never been that great a model for us, loaded down with once great vets as they are. What you say about the final score being the thing is of course true. But in the end for a team like us that Boogie boxscore is more often than not going to be extremely telling for whether we win or not. Which is true for most teams with legit superstars of course, but maybe even moreso for us.
In 7 wins: 30.4pts TS% .594
In 8 losses: 20.5pts TS% .457
In 8 out w/injury: 1-7
So while its certainly true we shouldn't be bemoaning an off night for Cuz if we are winning anyway, on the other hand that almost never happens. In fact a stranger to teh team, and indeed to the entire sport, could almost like clockwork tell if we won or lost a game just by asking for Boogie's statline.
In 7 wins: 30.4pts TS% .594
In 8 losses: 20.5pts TS% .457
In 8 out w/injury: 1-7
So while its certainly true we shouldn't be bemoaning an off night for Cuz if we are winning anyway, on the other hand that almost never happens. In fact a stranger to teh team, and indeed to the entire sport, could almost like clockwork tell if we won or lost a game just by asking for Boogie's statline.
Again, you say you need to force them to get away from playing Draymond Green at center.... but how exactly are you going to make them pay?
They play zone, and make the post entry pass really hard to get (LeBron's Miami also did that). and because you are talking about bigs that can't really shoot they can kill your spacing and deny you of the "shooting layups" strategy.
If you remember in a few games the Cavs strategy really worked for a while as an open Iggy couldn't make his jumpers... but then he did, and the Warriors destroyed them.
They play zone, and make the post entry pass really hard to get (LeBron's Miami also did that). and because you are talking about bigs that can't really shoot they can kill your spacing and deny you of the "shooting layups" strategy.
If you remember in a few games the Cavs strategy really worked for a while as an open Iggy couldn't make his jumpers... but then he did, and the Warriors destroyed them.
Golden State didn't exactly deny Cleveland from shooting layups. Cleveland denied themselves because it is, in fact, true that they can't guard Golden State's lineup with two bigs on the floor. You say that they made the post entry pass hard, but Mozgov still killed them. But Blatt panicked, and that's the bottom line. He thought that he could go big, and Golden State would immediately wilt, and Golden State didn't immediately wilt, and then Blatt lost the courage of his convictions. He suddenly got on that, "It's not going to work, I need to go small! IT'S THE ONLY WAY!" tip. And, of course, it didn't work.
Nobody has tried to go big with the Warriors for a whole game, much less a whole series, except for the Grizzlies, and they just don't have the bodies/youth to do it. A lot of teams have flirted with going big, but it's obvious that in their heart of hearts, they don't believe in it. We need a team with a coach that both has the personnel and the faith in his system to go big, and stay big. Maybe it'll work, and maybe it won't. We already know what won't work.
Help me Obi-Wan Popovich. You're my only hope.
Nobody has tried to go big with the Warriors for a whole game, much less a whole series, except for the Grizzlies, and they just don't have the bodies/youth to do it. A lot of teams have flirted with going big, but it's obvious that in their heart of hearts, they don't believe in it. We need a team with a coach that both has the personnel and the faith in his system to go big, and stay big. Maybe it'll work, and maybe it won't. We already know what won't work.
Help me Obi-Wan Popovich. You're my only hope.
I'm glad you brought up the Warriors. The Warriors recipe to championship success is not the formula you follow in order to win multiple titles. It might be THEIR way to do so...they have the personnel to do what they do best and that is chuck a lot of three's whether they are good shots or not and play small ball because everyone is scared of Curry and Klay even attempting three point field goals. If the Warriors go on and win two straight titles, good on them. I still wouldn't try to match what they are doing because you don't just go out there and have your back court be the best shooting back court in the history of the league. I remember when everyone was saying you needed three all-stars to win a title...that was true at the time because you couldn't beat the three headed monster in Miami unless you were the Spurs who followed no bodies protocol and stuck with their own guns and in the end result....beat the dreaded Miami Heat 
! Now...I'm curious to see who will be that next team to take down the almighty Warriors. I don't know if there is a team this year to do so...maybe there is. I'd like to watch a team take them out of their game plan, if possible. If not, all hail the great Warriors for another off season while the entire league tries to run and find nothing but shooters and Draymond Green's in the draft.
! Now...I'm curious to see who will be that next team to take down the almighty Warriors. I don't know if there is a team this year to do so...maybe there is. I'd like to watch a team take them out of their game plan, if possible. If not, all hail the great Warriors for another off season while the entire league tries to run and find nothing but shooters and Draymond Green's in the draft.Like I said, for a while (mostly earlier in the series) they were able to get the ball to Mozgov and he did punish them- but if you look at it a lot of the time they had a really hard time getting the ball to Mozgov.
Blatt panicked because they were getting slaughtered by open 3-pointers, I think it's just that the bad outweighed the good.
About the "we already know what won't work"- if GS shoots that well and with Curry playing the way he did this year.... I don't think anything would work- it's not about the style they play, they are just really ****ing good, on both sides of the floor.
The point with going small against them is that it's better than the alternative of keeping an open shooter and letting them pack the paint on defense, and the thinking that since they rely on 3pt shooting you can beat them if their shooters struggle and your team gets hot.
But I'm not completely against going big, like I said- I'm against doing it when you don't have the right personnel, it's just that there are very few teams that actually have such bigs.
SAS might just be that team, both Duncan and LMA (and West for that matter) can make Draymond Green pay if he's guarding them alone down low- but can also hit midrange jumper well enough so that you can't leave them open, and you also can't leave Danny Green or Kawhi open.
They also have the option of playing Diaw which gives them a lot of the benefits of small-ball (very good shooter and fantastic passer) while staying big.
Of course they can also go small with TP-Manu-Green-Leonard-Duncan/LMA and that will be also difficult for GS (or any team) to face, but I think since their wing rotation is a little thin this year they'll most likely go big most of the time... it will be interesting for sure.
Blatt panicked because they were getting slaughtered by open 3-pointers, I think it's just that the bad outweighed the good.
About the "we already know what won't work"- if GS shoots that well and with Curry playing the way he did this year.... I don't think anything would work- it's not about the style they play, they are just really ****ing good, on both sides of the floor.
The point with going small against them is that it's better than the alternative of keeping an open shooter and letting them pack the paint on defense, and the thinking that since they rely on 3pt shooting you can beat them if their shooters struggle and your team gets hot.
But I'm not completely against going big, like I said- I'm against doing it when you don't have the right personnel, it's just that there are very few teams that actually have such bigs.
SAS might just be that team, both Duncan and LMA (and West for that matter) can make Draymond Green pay if he's guarding them alone down low- but can also hit midrange jumper well enough so that you can't leave them open, and you also can't leave Danny Green or Kawhi open.
They also have the option of playing Diaw which gives them a lot of the benefits of small-ball (very good shooter and fantastic passer) while staying big.
Of course they can also go small with TP-Manu-Green-Leonard-Duncan/LMA and that will be also difficult for GS (or any team) to face, but I think since their wing rotation is a little thin this year they'll most likely go big most of the time... it will be interesting for sure.
You're confusing results with intent. There haven't been better results going big against GS because most teams increasingly don't intend to even try to go big and increasingly aren't built that way. And as Slim alluded to, when a team does try to go big, they essentially half-ass it. You've got to fully commit and it's got to be that way against GS or anyone else.
The team with the best chance to handle GS this year, SA, has no intention of trying to go small as a blueprint. Signing West/LMA shows exactly that. They play big lineups. They've changed from being up-tempo for a few years to once again more of a halfcourt team.
And I'm not arguing simply by going big you'll beat GS. They're one helluva team. What I'm arguing is you're much more likely to beat them by going big and mucking it up than playing into the small ball blueprint and right into their hands.
The team with the best chance to handle GS this year, SA, has no intention of trying to go small as a blueprint. Signing West/LMA shows exactly that. They play big lineups. They've changed from being up-tempo for a few years to once again more of a halfcourt team.
And I'm not arguing simply by going big you'll beat GS. They're one helluva team. What I'm arguing is you're much more likely to beat them by going big and mucking it up than playing into the small ball blueprint and right into their hands.
That just goes to prove that he didn't have the courage of his convictions. Or he was never really that convicted, to begin with.
I mostly slept/daydreamt my way through the three years my parents made me go to Sunday School, but I seem to remember something about a mustard seed that I think would apply...
I mostly slept/daydreamt my way through the three years my parents made me go to Sunday School, but I seem to remember something about a mustard seed that I think would apply...