A Big Stats Thread: On/Off, Lineups, & per Quarter

Discussion in 'Kings Rap' started by Bricklayer, Nov 30, 2016.

  1. Bricklayer

    Bricklayer Don't Make Me Use The Bat Staff Member Contributor

    I wanted to look at our +/- numbers, how the various starting lineups had done, and then how the team had done at various points in the game. Below you can find statistical explanations for several nettlesome trends and decisions the Kings keep coming back to, but its largely the diary of a middling team, not a terrible one.

    PART I -- On/Off
    These numbers stress not only the overwhelming importance of Cousins/Gay (although Gay's offensive +/- has plummeted as he has come down to Earth the last two weeks), but also show how Tolliver, Willie, and Ben have fallen out the back of the rotation. You can also see the "Koufos" effect, where his presence makes a massive difference for us defensively (and is likely why Boogie, who has been a big + guy defensively the last few years, is now having his impact offensively -- Koufos did the same thing to Marc Gasol in Memphis), but he's by far the worst main rotation player on the team offensively. BTW, we are again actually winning Cuz's minutes this year (+1.5), and this year we are also winning Rudy's minutes (+2.1) as well. If we could just do a little better in the 10-12min without them we're a .500 team.

    Overall:
    Gay +12.0
    Cousins +11.2
    Collison +4.7
    Koufos +3.2
    Temple +1.8
    Barnes +1.7
    Casspi -0.6
    Lawson -1.0
    McLemore -2.6
    Afflalo -3.8
    Tolliver -18.9
    Cauley-Stein -23.4

    Offense:
    Cousins +11.9
    Gay +6.3
    Collison +2.9
    Afflalo +1.1
    Barnes +0.0
    Lawson -1.1
    McLemore -1.2
    Casspi -1.4
    Temple -2.5
    Koufos -6.6
    Tolliver -8.1
    Cauley-Stein -11.0

    Defense:
    Koufos -9.6
    Gay -5.6
    Temple -4.3
    Collison -1.9
    Barnes -1.7
    Casspi -0.7
    Lawson -0.1
    Cousins +0.6
    McLemore +1.4
    Afflalo +4.9
    Tolliver +10.9
    Cauley-Stein +12.3

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAC/2017/on-off/

    PART II -- RPM
    ESPN's "Real Plus Minus" stat is theoretically more advanced than the raw +/- stats above. Again here you see the two man nature of the team. then the solid pack of roleplayers hovering around break even, and then the fall off to the shakier pieces. Collison and Afflalo being down there rather than amongst the solid roleplayers is a problem. Ben has always done terribly by this statistic BTW. If they ever actually released the formula, I might even be able to tell you why.
    With League Rank:
    Cousins 4.94 (#10)
    Gay 2.29 (#27)
    Koufos -0.03 (#116)
    Lawson -0.51 (#158)
    Temple -0.54 (#162)
    Barnes -0.84 (#183)
    Tolliver -1.73 (#288)
    Collison -1.85 (#297)
    Afflalo -1.89 (#304)
    Casspi -2.17 (#331)
    Cauley-Stein -2.88 (#382)
    McLemore -3.41 (#402)

    http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/11/sort/RPM

    PART III -- Starting Lineups
    The stats below make a pretty good argument for why Joerger keeps going back and going back to that Koufos/Cuz well. Check out the DRTG and Rebound% of those lineups. then pan down to the various attempts to use Matt Barnes at PF, and both the DRTG and Reb% fall off to catastrophic levels. Willie faceplanting this offseason has really left us with our same hole, and maybe in the end, if we did make a trade, bringing back a legit starting quality true PF might be a real target.

    Here are our starting lineups this year:
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAC/2017_start.html

    And here's how each of those combinations has done together on the year (not just as starters):

    Koufos/Cousins/Gay/Afflalo/Lawson (10 starts, 154min)
    ORTG: 105.3 (54.0 TS%)
    DRTG: 106.0 (53.7 TS%)
    Assist%: 58.0%
    Rebound%: 53.7%

    Koufos/Cousins/Gay/Afflalo/Collison (3 starts, 44min)
    ORTG: 97.7 (51.6 TS%)
    DRTG: 95.4 (54.3 TS%)
    Assist%: 54.1%
    Rebound%: 56.8%

    Cousins/Barnes/Gay/Collison/Lawson (2 starts, 21min)
    ORTG: 107.3 (49.4 TS%)
    DRTG: 122.0 (64.8 TS%)
    Assist%: 64.3%
    Rebound%: 45.7%

    Cousins/Barnes/Gay/Afflalo/Lawson (1 start, 55min)
    ORTG: 109.4 (53.2 TS%)
    DRTG: 126.4 (63.6 TS%)
    Assist%: 55.3%
    Rebound%: 45.1%

    Cousins/Barnes/Gay/Afflalo/Collison (1 start, 38min)
    ORTG: 118.9 (62.0 TS%)
    DRTG: 125.7 (60.5 TS%)
    Assist%: 65.6%
    Rebound%: 44.3%

    Cousins/Casspi/Gay/Afflalo/Lawson (1 start)
    -- played 6 minutes of 1 game (the Milwaulkee beatdown)

    http://nbawowy.com/#/team-level


    PART IV -- Quarter by Quarter
    The numbers below give credence to the impression that the team gets off to bad starts, but is tenacious. You can see our defense improving quarter by quarter, with a big jump between the first half and the second half (we give up 56.0pts in the 1st half, only 47.2pts after the break). And we win those second halves, which I think are played closer to the grind it out style that favors us. Maybe the solution is to have the guys play a warmup 5 on 5 quarter on the practice court before each game.

    BTW, on the season the Kings are a -2.0 Pts For/Against. But -1.1 of those points come from our 3 OT losses, where we were only competitive in 1 OT and have been outscored by 20 overall. In regulation we've only been outscored -0.9, which is well within the range of a .500 team. And in fact given our 0-3 OT record, we are basically 3 pts on the season from being 10-8 rather than 7-11.

    1st Quarter Scoring:
    Kings: 26.1
    Opp: 28.6

    2nd Quarter Scoring:
    Kings: 26.0
    Opp: 27.4

    3rd Quarter Scoring:
    Kings: 25.4
    Opp: 23.3

    4th Quarter Scoring:
    Kings: 24.4
    Opp: 23.9

    OT Scoring:
    Kings: 7.3
    Opp: 14.0


    There were more things I was going to look at, but this thread is long enough already, so I'll leave it off here.
    Last edited: Nov 30, 2016
  2. ESP47

    ESP47 Well-Known Member

    It's no surprise that when they try (second half) they are a solid team. When they come out thinking they are good enough to not have to put in the effort (first half) they suck. Pretty much been the M.O. for this franchise for years. Doesn't matter who the coach or the players are. They play lazy, especially against competition they don't deem as good as them and it's why they can't even consistently beat bottom of the barrel teams. No matter the roster, the team always acts like they are better than they really are and seem stunned when they find themselves down by 15 points every game. Top teams can get away with farting around for 3 1/2 quarters and then turning it up at the end but a team that lacks talent like we do needs to play from start to finish because every possession is crucial.
  3. IfAt1st

    IfAt1st Well-Known Member

    I'd be interested in seeing Cousins' stats when he's on the floor with Koufos vs when Koufos is not on the floor.
    Iced Espresso likes this.
  4. Iced Espresso

    Iced Espresso Well-Known Member

    Hey Brick

    How much of the better second halves do you think is from Joerger and the coaching staff making adjustments?

    If they are making some good adjustments, I can't fathom why the pregame talks and the first half results are so poor.
    CelticsFan likes this.
  5. Iced Espresso

    Iced Espresso Well-Known Member

    I never liked the pairing, but with our horrendous rebounding it makes it easier to watch them both together.
  6. Bricklayer

    Bricklayer Don't Make Me Use The Bat Staff Member Contributor

    [​IMG]

    Excellent question -- the effect is incredible:

    Cousins w/ Kosta: 238 minutes
    Per 36: 24.2pts (.505TS%) 9.8reb 3.2ast

    Cousins no Kosta: 374 minutes
    Per 36: 34.4pts (.610TS%) 10.3reb 3.6ast

    Kosta might be the only thing standing between Cuz and an MVP run.
    Last edited: Nov 30, 2016
  7. IfAt1st

    IfAt1st Well-Known Member

    Thanks for those stats!

    I think Demarcus doesn't like playing with Koufos, and the pairing is being forced by Joerger.
    Further, I don't think Demarcus particularly likes Koufos.
    At the least, it's pretty clear Koufos "isn't Demarcus' dawg."

    IMO, the bad starts are likely to continue (more often than they should) until Joerger takes Koufos out of the starting lineup.
  8. Dime Dropper

    Dime Dropper Well-Known Member

    Cuz with Kosta is a scrub.
  9. Sac.Kings

    Sac.Kings Well-Known Member

    The main things that I get out of this thread are:
    1. We need a "real" starting PF. By real, I mean good.
    2. Still don't have a reliable starting SG

    The same two problems have now plagued us for years. How incapable have we become? It shouldn't be this difficult, although in fairness, WCS has been such a disappointment and Afflalo has not been anywhere near what I expected out of him.
  10. kingsboi

    kingsboi Well-Known Member

    You sure he is the only thing? What about that guy wearing number 8 and that guy wearing 40?
  11. kingsboi

    kingsboi Well-Known Member

    so then why does coach insist on playing them together still? I suppose he has three more games to figure this out before he reaches the 20 game mark.
  12. kingsboi

    kingsboi Well-Known Member

    That's silly talk. Just because he can't play with him doesn't mean he doesn't like him. What clues does he show to you for you to come up with this assumption?

    Maybe it's this? [​IMG]
    IfAt1st likes this.
  13. Siranthony

    Siranthony Active Member

    Ya PF would be nice. Without all the stats, I could tell you our season so far boils down to end of game and overtime performance.

    I don't think anyone should care whether Cousins numbers fall when Koufos is on the floor. All that should matter is if we won during that time. It is a team sport. It's a bad sign when you see players on the same team fighting each other for a rebound. Shows players are looking for stats.
  14. Suicide King

    Suicide King Active Member

    Or their roles are overlapping
  15. Dime Dropper

    Dime Dropper Well-Known Member

    I was 100% being sarcastic! But the point is right, he's much better without Kosta.
  16. Kingsfan23

    Kingsfan23 Well-Known Member

    Really confirms my adamence about WCS playing time, when he's played he has turned the teams momentum in a negative fashion

    Let's hope he does better with the chances he is given
  17. Gliesian

    Gliesian Active Member

    Call China and get JT on the phone y'all think I'm playin

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