Gay and Collison for Goran Dragic???
- Thread starter ockingsfan
- Start date
And I think people are losing sight that this isn't the only deal to be had. It's too one sided. There's nothing wrong with holding on to these guys until closer to the trade deadline when some playoff contenders might be in need. Why are you so reticent to go that route?
Also, what you consider a reasonable deal isn't so to others. 17-19M per for Beno Udrih 2.0 isn't close to reasonable to me. That's a joke.
Also, what you consider a reasonable deal isn't so to others. 17-19M per for Beno Udrih 2.0 isn't close to reasonable to me. That's a joke.
Oh, Dragic is a full class of player above Beno. better offensive player, better creater, and better defender.
But he's not a full class of player better than both Rudy and DC combined. That's a significant talent drain from a team low on that scale to start with. Calling it Dragic/Farmar for Rudy/Dc helps a little, but only a little. And who knows, us trying to pry more away to balance things may be why this has not happened.
But he's not a full class of player better than both Rudy and DC combined. That's a significant talent drain from a team low on that scale to start with. Calling it Dragic/Farmar for Rudy/Dc helps a little, but only a little. And who knows, us trying to pry more away to balance things may be why this has not happened.
The census around the league is that the Kings would be adding value to Gay/Collison to even get Dragic.
The real joke is that you think Dragic is Udrih 2.0 without giving a single piece of evidence that what you're saying is even REMOTELY true. 19th overall in RAPM, 54th in RPM, & a +4.3 On/Off is not "Udrih 2.0." I never thought I would be on this forum arguing with another poster that Dragic is much better than Udrih, but here I am. I guess anything is possible...
And yes, it is a reasonable contract despite what many of you like to think. A lot of people around here look at the absolute number and overreact. I've already pointed out that his contract under the new CBA equates to around $10-12 mil under the old CBA. I think that is very reasonable for a guy who is probably the 3rd/4th best player on a top notch team, and I'm fairly confident many GMs would agree with that assessment.
The real joke is that you think Dragic is Udrih 2.0 without giving a single piece of evidence that what you're saying is even REMOTELY true. 19th overall in RAPM, 54th in RPM, & a +4.3 On/Off is not "Udrih 2.0." I never thought I would be on this forum arguing with another poster that Dragic is much better than Udrih, but here I am. I guess anything is possible...
And yes, it is a reasonable contract despite what many of you like to think. A lot of people around here look at the absolute number and overreact. I've already pointed out that his contract under the new CBA equates to around $10-12 mil under the old CBA. I think that is very reasonable for a guy who is probably the 3rd/4th best player on a top notch team, and I'm fairly confident many GMs would agree with that assessment.
And the talent drain next season could be heads and above worse if they hit free agency.
I would also go as far to say that it shouldn't be just looked at as Dragic/Farmar for Gay/Collison for this season. It should be seen more as Dragic/Farmar/Casspi, Dragic/Farmar/Barnes, Dragic/Farmar/Temple, Dragic/Farmar/Tolliver, etc. considering we have 12 rotational players currently on the team (Collison, Lawson, Afflalo, Temple, McLemore, Gay, Casspi, Barnes, Tolliver, Cauley-Stein, Koufos, Cousins). There are going to be a couple guys that don't get minutes on our team that can definitely help our team if we had minutes to give them.
With that in mind, it makes more sense from a talent perspective knowing that we have competent players (who wouldn't be getting minutes) picking up the void. If we moved Gay/Collison for Dragic and had a guy like Papagiannis getting minutes, it obviously makes it a much less attractive deal, and if we think this deal still keeps our team as competitive as it was before we made the trade, then we take this deal and run because of the fact that Dragic is locked up on a reasonable deal. If you don't take the deal, you run the risk of bleeding talent next year with Collison & Gay walking.
Doing a 2 for 1 like this might also help our team morale since there would be a little bit more flexibility with the minutes which would prevent us from freezing out as many players from the rotation. We want these fellas to bond & be a family. I think that is harder to accomplish if you have 2-3 guys upset with the minutes they are getting. So let's recap the advantages I've already stated (while adding in a few more minor ones).
I would also go as far to say that it shouldn't be just looked at as Dragic/Farmar for Gay/Collison for this season. It should be seen more as Dragic/Farmar/Casspi, Dragic/Farmar/Barnes, Dragic/Farmar/Temple, Dragic/Farmar/Tolliver, etc. considering we have 12 rotational players currently on the team (Collison, Lawson, Afflalo, Temple, McLemore, Gay, Casspi, Barnes, Tolliver, Cauley-Stein, Koufos, Cousins). There are going to be a couple guys that don't get minutes on our team that can definitely help our team if we had minutes to give them.
With that in mind, it makes more sense from a talent perspective knowing that we have competent players (who wouldn't be getting minutes) picking up the void. If we moved Gay/Collison for Dragic and had a guy like Papagiannis getting minutes, it obviously makes it a much less attractive deal, and if we think this deal still keeps our team as competitive as it was before we made the trade, then we take this deal and run because of the fact that Dragic is locked up on a reasonable deal. If you don't take the deal, you run the risk of bleeding talent next year with Collison & Gay walking.
Doing a 2 for 1 like this might also help our team morale since there would be a little bit more flexibility with the minutes which would prevent us from freezing out as many players from the rotation. We want these fellas to bond & be a family. I think that is harder to accomplish if you have 2-3 guys upset with the minutes they are getting. So let's recap the advantages I've already stated (while adding in a few more minor ones).
- We reduce the risk of bleeding talent (considering Gay/Collison are expiring and Dragic is on a reasonable 3-4 year deal) giving the franchise more time to change the culture/image and make our team more attractive to FAs
- Dragic's advanced stats were very impressive last year, and he is playing very well in the preseason without a ball dominant, non-shooting SG next to him (Wade) which should result in an upgrade in our PG play
- We have two SFs who can easily slide in and account for all of our SF minutes. One of whom was a starter on two 56+ win teams (Not saying he was a key cog, but there's proof you can be a successful team with Barnes in the lineup) and the other who actually had a better RAPM, RPM, & On/Off than Gay last year (Casspi).
- We don't have to worry as much about our PG situation to start the year as we would with a suspended Collison & a risky Lawson (potentially costing us some winnable games in the beginning)
- With 12 players who could get minutes on our team currently, it alleviates some logjams which should hopefully prevent some players from being upset with the minutes they are receiving (hopefully keeping the players happy and playing hard)
- There's potentially the risk that Gay IS checked out and it may be a drag on what the coach & team are trying to move towards
I very much like how you've been posting lately 
And basically agree with every point you had in that long post. I'll add to it, that this helps clarify what direction the team is going in for Boogie next offseason. With Dragic aboard, we'd all of a sudden have a Dragic, Boogie, WCS, Joerger core that looks far more appealing than the entire team leaving next season for FA for Boogie. In an ideal world, if WCS develops, that's your #1 and #2 option with your defensive anchor and a top 10 coach all covered. And people who don't think Dragic is a #2, don't know how USG works; he's outstanding when he gets to control the back-court and has been since he became a starter. The main issue is teams the last 2 years have surrounded him with ball-dominant perimeter players that basically duplicate what he does well.
And basically agree with every point you had in that long post. I'll add to it, that this helps clarify what direction the team is going in for Boogie next offseason. With Dragic aboard, we'd all of a sudden have a Dragic, Boogie, WCS, Joerger core that looks far more appealing than the entire team leaving next season for FA for Boogie. In an ideal world, if WCS develops, that's your #1 and #2 option with your defensive anchor and a top 10 coach all covered. And people who don't think Dragic is a #2, don't know how USG works; he's outstanding when he gets to control the back-court and has been since he became a starter. The main issue is teams the last 2 years have surrounded him with ball-dominant perimeter players that basically duplicate what he does well.
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So just spit-balling rotations:
Dragic
Afflalo
Casspi
WCS
Cousins
would be my starting 5. Super well-balanced, lots of spacing and we upgrade defensively over DC and Gay in the starting lineup. The Dragic drive and kick to Afflalo and Casspi would be outstanding and I like the 2 man game Boogie and Dragic could play with his ability to cut to the rim. Casspi would probably be top 5 in 3pt FGA with Dragic and Boogie hitting him on drive and kicks.
Lawson
Temple
Barnes
Koufos
Another thing this trade does is it sets a super clear (in my eyes) 9-man rotation with lots of flexibility. Lawson is your spark off the bench, Temple and Barnes bring the defensive versatility and toughness off the bench at the 2/3 and 3/4 while Koufos probably gets his 14 MPG subbing for Boogie and 5 or 6 MPG with him on the floor. You're also bringing in 3 tough defenders that can help slow whatever position is torching us that night.
Ben
Tolliver
Farmar
And here's the bottom 3. Farmar and Tolliver are perfect here; good team guys, will stay ready and can give good minutes whenever called upon. Ben is the wild-card, as he's been since he got here, but he'd be the guy who could easily sneak in some minutes.
Dragic
Afflalo
Casspi
WCS
Cousins
would be my starting 5. Super well-balanced, lots of spacing and we upgrade defensively over DC and Gay in the starting lineup. The Dragic drive and kick to Afflalo and Casspi would be outstanding and I like the 2 man game Boogie and Dragic could play with his ability to cut to the rim. Casspi would probably be top 5 in 3pt FGA with Dragic and Boogie hitting him on drive and kicks.
Lawson
Temple
Barnes
Koufos
Another thing this trade does is it sets a super clear (in my eyes) 9-man rotation with lots of flexibility. Lawson is your spark off the bench, Temple and Barnes bring the defensive versatility and toughness off the bench at the 2/3 and 3/4 while Koufos probably gets his 14 MPG subbing for Boogie and 5 or 6 MPG with him on the floor. You're also bringing in 3 tough defenders that can help slow whatever position is torching us that night.
Ben
Tolliver
Farmar
And here's the bottom 3. Farmar and Tolliver are perfect here; good team guys, will stay ready and can give good minutes whenever called upon. Ben is the wild-card, as he's been since he got here, but he'd be the guy who could easily sneak in some minutes.
I very much like how you've been posting lately
And basically agree with every point you had in that long post. I'll add to it, that this helps clarify what direction the team is going in for Boogie next offseason. With Dragic aboard, we'd all of a sudden have a Dragic, Boogie, WCS, Joerger core that looks far more appealing than the entire team leaving next season for FA for Boogie. In an ideal world, if WCS develops, that's your #1, #2 defensive anchor and a top 10 coach all covered. And people who don't think Dragic is a #2, don't know how USG works; he's outstanding when he gets to control the back-court and has been since he became a starter. The main issue is teams the last 2 years have surrounded him with ball-dominant perimeter players that basically duplicate what he does well.
And basically agree with every point you had in that long post. I'll add to it, that this helps clarify what direction the team is going in for Boogie next offseason. With Dragic aboard, we'd all of a sudden have a Dragic, Boogie, WCS, Joerger core that looks far more appealing than the entire team leaving next season for FA for Boogie. In an ideal world, if WCS develops, that's your #1, #2 defensive anchor and a top 10 coach all covered. And people who don't think Dragic is a #2, don't know how USG works; he's outstanding when he gets to control the back-court and has been since he became a starter. The main issue is teams the last 2 years have surrounded him with ball-dominant perimeter players that basically duplicate what he does well.
In the end the fact is that in 8 years Goran's per36 numbers have been:
16.7pts 3.8reb 6.7ast 1.4stl 0.3blk 2.9TO on .561TS%
while in 7 years Darren Collison's per36 numbers have been:
15.4pts 3.3reb 5.9ast 1.4stl 0.2blk 2.6To on .561TS%
and we're giving up Rudy too, and taking back a big contract for the honor.
To put it in some perspective, per 100 possessions Goran's annual scoring has been:
08-09: 16.9
09-10: 22.2
10-11: 21.6
11-12: 23.2
12-13: 22.6
13-14: 29.0
14-15: 24.5
15-16: 22.1
DC's since he has been here:
14-15: 23.3
15-16: 22.4
so is Goran really going to be much more of a #2 than DC has been? There have been circumstances, yes. Often fighting for the ball. But I'm not convinced the current offense would give him that ball either. And its just that one outstanding year for a different coach and different and very guard based system that all that hope would be based upon. Otherwise he's really a #3 and Cuz is feeling really lonely out there on offense a lot of nights. Queue the 1990's Ewing music, which I know you don't like.
Yea he is, because he's far more talented. I also don't think we've really been seeing the real DC with us either; career year in 14-15 then probably benefited from Pace Master Karl more than anyone else on the team.
Dragic really doesn't have an 8 year sample either; hard to say he's the same guy now as he was his first 5 years when he was trying to finally get a starting job. And then after his breakout season (which is much closer to who he actually is as a player now) he's had to share the ball with IT, Bledsoe and Wade. And virtually EVERY stretch he's gotten to play without those guys, he's gone back to that big 13-14 type of counting stats.
That's why the numbers that Twslam brought up are so important; it's showing he's still highly impactful, but he isn't getting the same opportunities to show it.
Looks like this is all-for-naught thought as a quick look on HoopsHype seems like nothing is going to happen. Although Rudy saying:
Barry Jackson: Heat not pursuing trade with Gay/Dragic at this time, but might pursue Gay in 2017 free agency as secondary option. – RT: Alex Kennedy: While trying to defuse trade rumors, Rudy Gay said, “I have no choice but to work for the Sacramento Kings.” Quotes like that don’t defuse!
13 hours ago – via
should be even more of a reason to try and get rid of him.
Dragic really doesn't have an 8 year sample either; hard to say he's the same guy now as he was his first 5 years when he was trying to finally get a starting job. And then after his breakout season (which is much closer to who he actually is as a player now) he's had to share the ball with IT, Bledsoe and Wade. And virtually EVERY stretch he's gotten to play without those guys, he's gone back to that big 13-14 type of counting stats.
That's why the numbers that Twslam brought up are so important; it's showing he's still highly impactful, but he isn't getting the same opportunities to show it.
Looks like this is all-for-naught thought as a quick look on HoopsHype seems like nothing is going to happen. Although Rudy saying:
Barry Jackson: Heat not pursuing trade with Gay/Dragic at this time, but might pursue Gay in 2017 free agency as secondary option. – RT: Alex Kennedy: While trying to defuse trade rumors, Rudy Gay said, “I have no choice but to work for the Sacramento Kings.” Quotes like that don’t defuse!
13 hours ago – via
should be even more of a reason to try and get rid of him.
Come on, man. This is the best deal we're gonna get...I'd rather have Dragic than Rubio...I mean, maybe Rudy straight up for Cam Payne would be acceptable as well, but I can't realistically envision anything else. Rudy is next to worthless around the league. Folks here need to stop acting like he's worth a lotto pick. Go look at the contending teams and how many would even be potentially interested in him at the deadline AND have either a decent first round pick or rotation player they could part with in return AND be willing to soothe his ego and not make him a sixth man where he should be. Of course I would rather do Gay+BMac than Gay+Collison, but Ben is worthless as well, so you've got to forget about that.
This Kings team as currently assembled is not making the playoffs, and they have a ceiling of probably 38-40 wins, which means we lose our protected top 10 pick to Chicago. Standing pat should not be an option. Trading Gay and Collison nets us easily the highest valued player (Dragic) out of the three players involved, might make us slightly worse this season (but we keep our pick in a stacked draft plus get a better player under contract for three more years), and it solves our roster crunch issue (2 for 1) with Farmar/Lawson.
This Kings team as currently assembled is not making the playoffs, and they have a ceiling of probably 38-40 wins, which means we lose our protected top 10 pick to Chicago. Standing pat should not be an option. Trading Gay and Collison nets us easily the highest valued player (Dragic) out of the three players involved, might make us slightly worse this season (but we keep our pick in a stacked draft plus get a better player under contract for three more years), and it solves our roster crunch issue (2 for 1) with Farmar/Lawson.
K
I'd actually save Rudy as much as I dislike him and see how WCS goes during the first half of the season and if WCS does not play with any heart and continues his SL/Preseason form than I would try package both of them for the likes of MKG + filler (get DJ another Tony Allen type) and keep an eye on other possible situations (e.g. Jimmy Butler in Chicago)/ Suns for TJ Warren/Knight
I personally don't want Collison included in such a trade. As has been noted though it seems the rumor with Miami may have been just that..
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-heat/sfl-miami-heat-goran-dragic-102016-story.html
I would like to see us get something for Rudy before the trade deadline, but we have time.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-heat/sfl-miami-heat-goran-dragic-102016-story.html
I would like to see us get something for Rudy before the trade deadline, but we have time.
From Stein:
"According to the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, Spoelstra assured Dragic this week that a recent report suggesting Miami was actively discussing a deal to send him to Sacramento for Rudy Gay and Darren Collison was inaccurate. Yet one suspects this one is bound to keep coming up, partly because whispers persist that Gay would love to land in Miami ... but also because it's no secret Sacramento is on the hunt for a first-rate quarterback.
"(An aside on Gay: He's quoted in an advance copy of George Karl's forthcoming book "Furious George," due to be published in January by Harper-Colins, as telling Karl when he met the new Sacramento coach for the first time in February 2015, "Welcome to basketball hell.")"
http://www.espn.com/blog/marc-stein...n-trade-block-for-now-but-keep-watching-miami
"According to the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, Spoelstra assured Dragic this week that a recent report suggesting Miami was actively discussing a deal to send him to Sacramento for Rudy Gay and Darren Collison was inaccurate. Yet one suspects this one is bound to keep coming up, partly because whispers persist that Gay would love to land in Miami ... but also because it's no secret Sacramento is on the hunt for a first-rate quarterback.
"(An aside on Gay: He's quoted in an advance copy of George Karl's forthcoming book "Furious George," due to be published in January by Harper-Colins, as telling Karl when he met the new Sacramento coach for the first time in February 2015, "Welcome to basketball hell.")"
http://www.espn.com/blog/marc-stein...n-trade-block-for-now-but-keep-watching-miami
This Gay thing looks bad. If Miami plans to wait until FA to go after Gay, one can't help wondering how many other teams do the same. Not exactly a great position of leverage for Divac in getting value for Gay. This is what I've been so concerned about - waiting too long to pull the trigger on a trade and then getting nil because of it. You just can't wait until a player makes his unhappiness public and essentially proclaims the Kings are dead to him before you decide to look for a trade. The same principle applies to Cousins, by the way. If you wait until he publicly proclaims his desire to go elsewhere, good luck to you, you're going to need it.
While I agree with your concern that teams will just wait till Rudy enters FA, by the same token how many of said teams will get itchy trigger fingers closer to the playoffs? Wouldn't it be nice to have Gay already on your team for the remainder of this season with the possibility of him picking up his option? That may just give a team a leg up when Rudy does eventually hit free agency.
It is a tightrope walk no matter how you look at it.
It is a tightrope walk no matter how you look at it.
No, the real joke is that I already provided reasons/evidence for the comparison among the various threads going on but you either ignored it or conveniently didn't read. Either way, you're making false accusations. Go look at Beno's numbers during his 4 seasons with the Kings then compare to Dragic then get back to me. They are awfully close on average. That said, I acknowledged that Dragic is a slightly better version. But he's certainly not a lot better. The statistics bear that out. Go ahead and try to prove otherwise -- you can't.
Even Brick is acknowledging that a player of his class isn't worth Rudy and Collison. Yet here you are still digging a deeper hole. Put the shovel down already.
Even Brick is acknowledging that a player of his class isn't worth Rudy and Collison. Yet here you are still digging a deeper hole. Put the shovel down already.
I actually proved why Dragic for Gay/Collison is a good deal for us replying to Brick. Still waiting for his reply... So for right now, I haven't been proven wrong at all.
And just because Brick might not think Dragic is worth Gay & Collison that does not equate to Dragic's talent being similar to Beno. You're getting confused within your own argument. He himself shut down that foolish claim already. I'm still waiting for one other person to align with you on that thought. We might be waiting awhile...
You like to look at simple stats like PPG, RPG, APG, etc., that's fine. Feel free to do so, but you're missing the forest for the trees. Focusing on these stats alone leave you susceptible to weak player comparisons. The fact of the matter is that Dragic (last year) was very good in advanced stats that do the best job at measuring contributions to winning.
Now let me break that down for you because a lot of people have difficulty wrapping their head around it. Judging by your analysis, you would tend to conclude that if player X averages more rebounds than player Y per possession, player X must be the better rebounder. This isn't always true. Player Y might be much better at boxing out his own man allowing his team to acquire more rebounds or he might be smart enough to tip the rebound to a teammate rather than trying to control it if he is being challenged. There's other meniscule factors like somebody's shot. How quick someone can release their shot can impact the defense and thus provide a little more spacing vs. a player who might average a slightly higher 3PT% but a slower release. Or if a player tends to have long rebounds when he misses vs. others who's might have a softer bounce when they miss.
There are literally millions of factors that you miss by solely looking at stats like PPG, RPG, APG, etc. Stats like RAPM, RPM, & On/Off do as good of job as any to help account for all of these different factors and focus on what matters...helping a team win. Dragic (as it turns out) happens to be very good in these stats.
And just because Brick might not think Dragic is worth Gay & Collison that does not equate to Dragic's talent being similar to Beno. You're getting confused within your own argument. He himself shut down that foolish claim already. I'm still waiting for one other person to align with you on that thought. We might be waiting awhile...
You like to look at simple stats like PPG, RPG, APG, etc., that's fine. Feel free to do so, but you're missing the forest for the trees. Focusing on these stats alone leave you susceptible to weak player comparisons. The fact of the matter is that Dragic (last year) was very good in advanced stats that do the best job at measuring contributions to winning.
Now let me break that down for you because a lot of people have difficulty wrapping their head around it. Judging by your analysis, you would tend to conclude that if player X averages more rebounds than player Y per possession, player X must be the better rebounder. This isn't always true. Player Y might be much better at boxing out his own man allowing his team to acquire more rebounds or he might be smart enough to tip the rebound to a teammate rather than trying to control it if he is being challenged. There's other meniscule factors like somebody's shot. How quick someone can release their shot can impact the defense and thus provide a little more spacing vs. a player who might average a slightly higher 3PT% but a slower release. Or if a player tends to have long rebounds when he misses vs. others who's might have a softer bounce when they miss.
There are literally millions of factors that you miss by solely looking at stats like PPG, RPG, APG, etc. Stats like RAPM, RPM, & On/Off do as good of job as any to help account for all of these different factors and focus on what matters...helping a team win. Dragic (as it turns out) happens to be very good in these stats.
FWIW, here are the stat comparisons between Beno's 4 seasons in Sacramento versus Goran Dragic's past 5 seasons (since his 2011 breakout season):
Udrih: 12.6 ppg -- 48% 2-pt -- 36.1% 3-pt -- 3.1 rpg -- 4.6 apg -- 1.08 spg -- 1.96 TO
Dragic: 15.5 ppg -- 48% 2-pt -- 34.8% 3-pt -- 3.2 rpg -- 5.7 apg -- 1.25 spg -- 2.54 TO
So does 2.9 ppg and 1.1 apg equal a much better player??
Virtually identical production. Dragic had twice the volume of 3pt attempts and makes (432-1241 versus 228-631) which helps account for the scoring difference. But he didn't shoot it better. Everything else is about as close as it gets. His assists are higher but so are his turnovers.
Again, how is the Beno Udrih 2.0 comparison a joke? Dragic is slightly better -- no more.
Udrih: 12.6 ppg -- 48% 2-pt -- 36.1% 3-pt -- 3.1 rpg -- 4.6 apg -- 1.08 spg -- 1.96 TO
Dragic: 15.5 ppg -- 48% 2-pt -- 34.8% 3-pt -- 3.2 rpg -- 5.7 apg -- 1.25 spg -- 2.54 TO
So does 2.9 ppg and 1.1 apg equal a much better player??
Virtually identical production. Dragic had twice the volume of 3pt attempts and makes (432-1241 versus 228-631) which helps account for the scoring difference. But he didn't shoot it better. Everything else is about as close as it gets. His assists are higher but so are his turnovers.
Again, how is the Beno Udrih 2.0 comparison a joke? Dragic is slightly better -- no more.
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