I'd started writing a longer post about all the options available at the PF position in free agency at the end of the season, but with the team doing so well -- and Thompson, Landry, and Evans all being key contributors so far -- it seemed appropriate to pump the breaks a bit on talk of replacing them. Instead I just wanted to mention a couple guys I'm keeping an eye on as possible off-season additions keeping in mind Reggie Evans is a free agent at the end of the year, and while we should look to bring him back, he'll be 35 at the end of the season. We also need to be thinking about adding some size in the frontcourt. So this is less about replacing Thompson/Landry/Evans at this point for me and more about looking for ways to get even better in the aggregate by adding like-minded players.
Alright, first let me explain my criteria...
Darren/Gay/Cousins is working and we have a lot invested at the SG position already with two top 10 picks in a row. My goal was to try and find the perfect player to plug into our PF spot, either starting or off the bench. My target areas were rebounding, defense (statistically measured using block and steal percentage -- not the best indicator I realize), and low usage rate. Basically a player who won't use up a lot of offensive possessions and does the dirty work down low. I ran a single season search at basketball-reference for the first 5 seasons of active player's careers for any season which combined >15 True Rebound %, >1.5 block and steal percentage, and <20 usage percentage. I also filtered out guards. Here are the results sorted by defense rating:
LINK to LIST
First, the obvious -- the top two names on the list correspond to the current season so the sample size is very small. Scanning further down the list though, you can see that a lot of the names we expect to see are showing up. Tyson Chandler, Samuel Dalembert, Chris Anderson, Joakim Noah, Andre Drummond. Any of these guys in the prime of their career would easily fit the bill.
Secondly, you can eliminate the guys near the twilight of their career. Chandler and Dalembert are still decent options, but they're rapidly nearing the point where big men lose huge chunks of the season to injuries. My goal was to find a young PF to commit to, not a temporary stopgap.
Thirdly, Thomas Robinson and Larry Sanders are off to what are likely to be unsustainable starts this year, but both have previously made the list -- Robinson in his rookie season and Sanders in his fourth, which is interesting because those were considered very poor seasons for both of them. Looking deeper into their stats, Sanders barely missed on the steals the year before and Robinson barely missed on the steals in his second season. So it might not be a fluke, both of them seem like decent bets to make the list again. That makes them players to watch this year.
Fourthly, the other young PFs most likely to fill a need for us if we can get them are Ed Davis and Gorgui Deng. Dieng is particularly intriguing because he doesn't just meet the criteria, he knocks it out of the park on every level. I also like that he gobbles up offensive boards at a high rate. You couldn't invent a more perfect player for us, alas he's Minnesota's for the next two years. Ed Davis is a per/36 star who hasn't quite had a breakout year yet, but he's been consistent about providing under the radar value for his team. Definitely worth considering.
Lastly, two mid-career vets made multiple appearances on the list and thus can't be ignored. Those two players are Amir Johnson, who is actually a combo forward so less interesting than these other guys for us, and Paul Millsap. Millsap meets some of the criteria, but not all of them. His rebounding rates are moving in the wrong direction (particularly on the offensive end) and he's headed for his fifth straight season with a usage rate over 20. His defensive peripherals are outstanding though and he can limit his shot attempts on a better team, but I feel like the price/performance balance isn't going to be in our favor. An intriguing option, but he wouldn't be my first choice. Amir Johnson is a potential Reggie Evans replacement, not the same on the boards of course, but he makes up for it in other areas. At the right price he's worth considering. Both of these guys, it should be noted, would not help our size problem down low.
So here's the list, and their contract status at the the end of the season:
Gorgui Dieng is signed next season and has a team option for the 2016/2017 season.
Ed Davis is likely to execute his player option at the end of the year and become a free agent.
Larry Sanders has 3 years of 11M per left after this year.
Thomas Robinson's last option year was declined by Portland so he will become an unrestricted free agent.
Amir Johnson will be an unrestricted free agent.
Paul Millsap will be an unrestricted free agent.
I've been stumping for Larry Sanders for 2 years now, so that shouldn't come as a surprise. I know people are going to tear into me for daring to suggest Thomas Robinson as an option, but perhaps a "not so fast" is in order? The guy does have legit size to play PF and seems to be getting better, particularly on the boards where he was solid from the beginning. Millsap and Davis are potential free agent targets in the off-season. I didn't consider Omer Asik or Greg Monroe here even though both will be free agents because I think they'll be out of our price range.
Thoughts? Who did I forget?
EDIT: Another player who met the criteria that I forgot to mention was Kyle O'Quinn on Orlando. He'll be a restricted free agent at the end of the year. I don't know much about him, I'll have to watch him play this year, but for completeness sake he should be on the list.
Alright, first let me explain my criteria...
Darren/Gay/Cousins is working and we have a lot invested at the SG position already with two top 10 picks in a row. My goal was to try and find the perfect player to plug into our PF spot, either starting or off the bench. My target areas were rebounding, defense (statistically measured using block and steal percentage -- not the best indicator I realize), and low usage rate. Basically a player who won't use up a lot of offensive possessions and does the dirty work down low. I ran a single season search at basketball-reference for the first 5 seasons of active player's careers for any season which combined >15 True Rebound %, >1.5 block and steal percentage, and <20 usage percentage. I also filtered out guards. Here are the results sorted by defense rating:
LINK to LIST
First, the obvious -- the top two names on the list correspond to the current season so the sample size is very small. Scanning further down the list though, you can see that a lot of the names we expect to see are showing up. Tyson Chandler, Samuel Dalembert, Chris Anderson, Joakim Noah, Andre Drummond. Any of these guys in the prime of their career would easily fit the bill.
Secondly, you can eliminate the guys near the twilight of their career. Chandler and Dalembert are still decent options, but they're rapidly nearing the point where big men lose huge chunks of the season to injuries. My goal was to find a young PF to commit to, not a temporary stopgap.
Thirdly, Thomas Robinson and Larry Sanders are off to what are likely to be unsustainable starts this year, but both have previously made the list -- Robinson in his rookie season and Sanders in his fourth, which is interesting because those were considered very poor seasons for both of them. Looking deeper into their stats, Sanders barely missed on the steals the year before and Robinson barely missed on the steals in his second season. So it might not be a fluke, both of them seem like decent bets to make the list again. That makes them players to watch this year.
Fourthly, the other young PFs most likely to fill a need for us if we can get them are Ed Davis and Gorgui Deng. Dieng is particularly intriguing because he doesn't just meet the criteria, he knocks it out of the park on every level. I also like that he gobbles up offensive boards at a high rate. You couldn't invent a more perfect player for us, alas he's Minnesota's for the next two years. Ed Davis is a per/36 star who hasn't quite had a breakout year yet, but he's been consistent about providing under the radar value for his team. Definitely worth considering.
Lastly, two mid-career vets made multiple appearances on the list and thus can't be ignored. Those two players are Amir Johnson, who is actually a combo forward so less interesting than these other guys for us, and Paul Millsap. Millsap meets some of the criteria, but not all of them. His rebounding rates are moving in the wrong direction (particularly on the offensive end) and he's headed for his fifth straight season with a usage rate over 20. His defensive peripherals are outstanding though and he can limit his shot attempts on a better team, but I feel like the price/performance balance isn't going to be in our favor. An intriguing option, but he wouldn't be my first choice. Amir Johnson is a potential Reggie Evans replacement, not the same on the boards of course, but he makes up for it in other areas. At the right price he's worth considering. Both of these guys, it should be noted, would not help our size problem down low.
So here's the list, and their contract status at the the end of the season:
Gorgui Dieng is signed next season and has a team option for the 2016/2017 season.
Ed Davis is likely to execute his player option at the end of the year and become a free agent.
Larry Sanders has 3 years of 11M per left after this year.
Thomas Robinson's last option year was declined by Portland so he will become an unrestricted free agent.
Amir Johnson will be an unrestricted free agent.
Paul Millsap will be an unrestricted free agent.
I've been stumping for Larry Sanders for 2 years now, so that shouldn't come as a surprise. I know people are going to tear into me for daring to suggest Thomas Robinson as an option, but perhaps a "not so fast" is in order? The guy does have legit size to play PF and seems to be getting better, particularly on the boards where he was solid from the beginning. Millsap and Davis are potential free agent targets in the off-season. I didn't consider Omer Asik or Greg Monroe here even though both will be free agents because I think they'll be out of our price range.
Thoughts? Who did I forget?
EDIT: Another player who met the criteria that I forgot to mention was Kyle O'Quinn on Orlando. He'll be a restricted free agent at the end of the year. I don't know much about him, I'll have to watch him play this year, but for completeness sake he should be on the list.
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What I said about the rebounding remains a concern for me though.
