Who do we draft?

Discussion in 'Personnel moves' started by Folsomkingsfan, Mar 7, 2017.

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  1. 206Fan

    206Fan Well-Known Member

    His defensive problems are being over-blown. Here's this video, but it's in French(I'll translate a few). I don't agree with all of this, but I think it's more reflective of his potential on that end. Should add, it goes through his strengths and weaknesses too. Great breakdown, the best I've found on his defense.

    Athleticism: Excellent
    Defensive Effort: Average/good
    Discipline and fundamentals: Average
    Pick and Roll: Excellent
    Isolation: Excellent
    Help defense: Average
    Steals? on defense: Very good
    Potential: Very good

    Isolations: Smith posses great lateral quickness. He can contain penetration

    Activeness: Sometimes Smith shows high intensity.
    He takes good defensive stance and puts pressure 1 on 1.

    ok.. too much French for one day. But I think you can get an idea just from watching the defensive clips together.
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2017
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  2. biltalent

    biltalent Well-Known Member

    Thanks for this video. He can surely sit down and slide if he wants to. If we indeed do take him I hope Joerger can get that out of him consistently.
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  3. Folsomkingsfan

    Folsomkingsfan Active Member

    I think he's rated fine where he is between 8-10. He's a great offensive talent with an ability to get others involved, but his defense is shady (as others have mentioned) and his attitude has been compared to Steve Francis and Stephon Marbury. Those comparisons are most likely blown way out of proportion, but at this point I'd be hesitant only because this the first time in years that our team has shown any king of chemistry. The last thing I'd want is to bring in a guy who thinks he is above the team.
  4. hrdboild

    hrdboild Well-Known Member

    I think when you're looking at Dennis Smith Jr., he's a guy that can jump off the screen at you for good and bad reasons. He's going to be one of the best athletes in the league. His quickness, ball control, and explosive leaping ability are very impressive. But he played one year in college and he's already taking plays off on defense. That's a really bad sign. As I've said before I think he's got franchise player potential -- which I wouldn't say for Fox or Ntilikina. You get this kid to buy into your system and give max effort every minute he's on the floor and you've got an elite PG -- another Kyrie Irving or Damian Lillard who will challenge for scoring titles and make multiple All Star teams. I still would take Fox or Ntilikina first if they're available. One of the hardest things to do is to change a player's habits. Given the choice between an elite scoring point and a ball-hawking pest I've got to go with the standout defender provided they are at least giving you positive contributions on offense, but that's just my preference. I think Fox and Ntilikina could both be very good players but they're "between the lines" guys who are going to help you win in ways that don't typically get rewarded with league accolades. They probably won't be household outside of their own media markets unless they go to New York, Boston, or LA.

    Is that a fair tradeoff? Depends. If Smith reaches his full potential, and Fox/Ntilikina are good but not elite defensively than probably not. If Smith ends up being one step below the other elite scoring guards and Fox or Ntilikina are first/second team All-Defense than it's a much closer call. With Fox you really need to see him develop that jumper or he's going to struggle with much tighter passing/driving lanes. With Ntilikina you need to see him tighten his handle and show you that he can get into the paint rather than settling for jumpers over the defense. With Smith the questions are about flagging effort defensively, balancing his aggressive scorer's mentality with the team game, and potential for further injuries. So all three of them come into the league with some question marks. But if you want the guy with the best chance to be a star? I think that's Smith. Does that mean we have to take Smith if he's on the board? Maybe not. I'm in a weird place right now after the Cousins trade -- similar to where I was the year after the Maloofs released Rick Adelman. If you're not happy with that level of performance from your coach/star as a front office, what will you be happy with? So in that context, if these guys are serious about making a change in the team's personality, Dennis Smith might not be the best choice. If Fox/Ntilikina are both gone and Smith is there you pick him anyway and get to work. Otherwise I think you get a guy who's already shown a willingness to dig in and be their team's defensive captain to lead the charge from the main point of attack and go from there.
  5. Sac.Kings

    Sac.Kings Well-Known Member

    I think Dennis Smith has most to prove in his interviews with teams. He's got the talent and the athletic ability, time to figure out what's between the ears.

    I'm not in favor of patching up the SF spot first and look for a PG later. This is a guards league whether we like it or not and we don't have a PG period at this time. We need a PG and we need a good one. Smith is a high level talent player and he happens to have all the tools to be one of the best point guards in the game, if he chooses to. This is where your coaching staff comes into play. We finally have a good staff so why not use them?
  6. Jimbob

    Jimbob Well-Known Member

    It will be interesting if Smith will try out for the Kings especially with a pick that might be only as high as 8. If he does and he comes across good that's a positive.
    I agree a PG should be the main focus but if the big names are all off the board, though unlikely, what to do, it means a guy like Tatum or Isaac has fallen a bit so in this case its BPA for me.
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  7. Sac.Kings

    Sac.Kings Well-Known Member

    We might get lucky.... and really if Smith is smart, he should work out for everyone. The biggest mark against him is attitude and intensity. If he can alleviate some of those concerns, it could potentially result in a bigger rookie paycheck for him. However, I am not worried about whether he works out for us or not, Vlade doesn't seem to care one way or another :)

    If I am the Kings, go for the SF spot at pick 8 if you can't get the PG or take Zach Collins if teams suddenly jump on his bandwagon. There could be some surprises on draft night, someone always slides and someone jumps into the top 10. It's hard to know.

    By the way, has that coin flip happened yet? Or do we not need to do that anymore?
  8. The_Jamal

    The_Jamal Well-Known Member

    I see virtually no chance Markkanen isn't a top 7 pick. He's going to blow teams away in workouts and as the only big man projected in the top 10, he'll get rated higher by that fact. I still believe in his offensive potential to be a star and even his floor to be a Ryan Anderson type contributor.
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  9. The_Jamal

    The_Jamal Well-Known Member

    I've gone back and watched some DSJ tape (as it's looking like he'll likely be there on our pick) and wanted to see if I missed anything. All the positives I initially saw (scoring potential/athleticism/playmaking potential) were all still there, but the lack of effort thing still stuck out.

    I guess I'm starting to disregard that a bit and am willing to focus on his upside as a player and trust Joerger. Joerger is a great all-around coach, but by far his best ability as a leader is to get his players to fully commit to playing hard and not quitting. DSJ won't have the chance to dog it here or he'll be on the bench. I mean, it still matters especially with 2 other dynamite PG's that might be available when we pick, but I won't be as upset at drafting DSJ as I would have been a month ago.
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  10. kingdivac

    kingdivac Well-Known Member

    I like him too.....I'm hoping they get him, but some Mocks have him going earlier - 5-7 range. The Kings should be able to get a good PG, maybe not the best in the draft but a solid player. Smith could be one of the best, and talent level-wise the best potentially in 3 years. He is the most athletic in terms of finishing without question. Not the best defender, playmaker, or shooter though.
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  11. funkykingston

    funkykingston Well-Known Member

    If the Kings stay at 8 the worst case scenario then at least ONE prospect I really like will be there.

    Fultz, Ball and Jackson are likely to go top 4 if not top 3.

    Then there's (in my order)


    If they like all of those guys, ONE of them will be there at 8. Two would be there at 8 if Monk is taking top 7. One will be there at 10 if Markannen or Collins (or another prospect) also goes top 9.
  12. bajaden

    bajaden Well-Known Member

    Look, I get where your coming from. You can keep showing film and reports till your blue in the face, and your not going to tell us anything we don't know. Our problem isn't with his abilities. We/I know how talented he is. My problem is with his desire. With his wanting to be a great player. Trust me, I hope I'm wrong about him. Especially if we draft him. All I'm saying is that there's some risk to drafting him. Yes, he is capable of being a good defender. But, I watched him just stand there and be a spectator on defense. I watched him make no effort to stay in front of his man at times. It's not about can he. It's about will he.

    Unless you have some crystal ball that guarantees he's going to be a different player in the NBA, I'll continue to worry about him. I have no worries about Fox's effort. or Fultz's. Ball gave me some pause when he mailed in his last game in my opinion. It looked like his mind was already on the NBA. Yeah, I know, he was going up against a good defender, but I watched him go against Fox earlier in the season and he fared a lot better in that game. But at least it was only for one game. Smith mailed it in too many games for me. Fultz could have done the same thing, but didn't, and he actually played on a worse team.
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  13. bajaden

    bajaden Well-Known Member

    My gut tells me that Markkanen is going to go in the top seven and or Monk, or if were lucky, both. If any team in the top seven needs a center and passes on Collins then they need a new GM. And, as I've said, if everyone I like is gone by ten, then I'm fine with the Kings either trading down, or taking Collins, who I think is going to be a very good NBA player. I think Mark Few did his best to hide him this year with the hope he wouldn't declare and it didn't work. Hard to hide a talent like that. Of course if he hasn't hired an agent yet, he can always withdraw from the draft.

    By the way, I hope they don't go in the order you have them listed. But you do have them listed in the order I would take them.
  14. bajaden

    bajaden Well-Known Member

    I agree with you on Markkanen going in the top seven. And you may be right about him being the next coming of Ryan Anderson. His numbers in college are very similar to Anderson's at Cal. Anderson was a better rebounder, and a better low post scorer than Markkanen, and I think a more fluid player, but there are definitely similarities to their games. If the Kings had a dire need at the PF position, I'd be all over him. However, if the Kings are lucky enough to have a shot at Isaac, he's a player that can probably play both the SF and PF position down the road, when he gets stronger.

    That's one of the reasons I prefer Isaac over Markkanen. I doubt that Markkanen will ever be able to guard the SF position. However, he may be able to play the five a little.
  15. The_Jamal

    The_Jamal Well-Known Member

    Are we so certain Monk can't transition to PG? Especially with Buddy developing more as a playmaker/ball-handler, I do think we can get away with 2 combo guards who are lights-out shooters. Just as a pure talent, Monk is just one of my favorite players in this draft. There isn't a shot he can't make or create for himself and he's an absolute stud athlete. There's no ball-handling concerns for me and I do think he's underrate as a playmaker because he wasn't asked to do so next to Fox. He's also a guy who we don't have to question about effort or fire on the court.
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  16. Capt. Factorial

    Capt. Factorial Cantry Member Staff Member Contributor

    It was not widely reported, but word around the UCLA program is that Ball pulled his groin (hamstring? Can't remember which) in the first half, which would account for his apparent issues on effort.
  17. The_Jamal

    The_Jamal Well-Known Member

    One of my first posts in this thread was shipping Markkanen as a potential offensive star. You just don't see guys like him with his stroke/release/effectiveness AND the ability to create his own shot. Was also really impressed with his ability to run the PnR as the ball-handler too. There's obvious concerns on the defensive end/rebounding, but I don't really care as I think his offensive upside is so tremendous.

    This was all before we got to see Skal though and his potential as a future starter (maybe star?) for us though. I still love Markkanen and if he were far and away the best talent where we draft, I'd have no issues with stacking more bigs. But like you said, we'll likely be choosing between Markkanen and other prospects like Isaac/DSJ/Ntilkina who are just as exciting as prospects. It'd just be bad team management to pass on talented prospects at positions of need to grab another big man
  18. bajaden

    bajaden Well-Known Member

    Not to nic pick, but I disagree on the tighter passing lanes. It's much harder in college to get into the lane than it is in the NBA. They have no defensive three second rule in college, so a center. like Bell for instance, can just plant himself under the basket or in the lane, and protect the basket. You can't do that in the NBA. They spread the floor much better in the NBA. Fox will run rampant in the NBA. A team like Syracuse sticks a center right in the lane in front of the basket, and then zones the rest of the court. It's damm hard to penetrate that.

    One of the reasons I said that Thabeet would be a bust in the NBA was because he couldn't play away from the basket, and in the NBA he would have to. But if watched him play in college, the dude never left the lane. He blocked a ton of shots, and put good defensive stats, but they were empty stats when translated to the NBA. He couldn't move his feet laterally. As a result he couldn't guard the pick and roll, or any player on the perimeter. Players like Fox and Ball will find it much easier to penetrate in the NBA than they did in college.
  19. Sactown ExPat

    Sactown ExPat Member

    He can definitely be a modern P&R PG/playmaker. I like him a lot, and would definitely take him at #8 if available. In addition to his skills, we seem to like the Kentucky pedigree, as well. His familiarity with Skal is also a bonus.
  20. hrdboild

    hrdboild Well-Known Member

    In general I would agree. One of the biggest differences between the NBA and the college game right now is how much more open the floor is for dribble drives in the NBA. I was mostly projecting long-term with that one. If Fox doesn't eventually get some kind of jumpshot then defenders are going to be able to play off him (which minimizes the impact of his first step) and cheat into the passing lanes. I've got Fox third overall on my board right now though so I'm really not that worried about him. The jumper doesn't look broken it's just not going in enough right now. I expect him to continue working and develop his jumper in the NBA the way Wall, Walker, Conley and Lowry have. Also I'm going to be really mad when he gets drafted at 6 or 7. He's been my target since the beginning of the season and all we had to do was lose those two 1 pt games at the end of March.
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  21. Jimbob

    Jimbob Well-Known Member

    Watch Vlade take Monk and Markkanen. Two scorers first and foremost.
    Recon that will keep Vevek happy as well.
    I'm not being sarcastic, it would not surprise me. Vlade would have his bigs, and we would have a bunch of combo guards including Monk, Buddy, and Bogdan, maybe Galloway, and keep Ty around as insurance.
    I think Rudy will opt in and along with Temple and Malichi we have some resemblance of a SF.
    Basketball 3.0
    Reality though, both players may not be there at 8 and 10.
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2017
  22. Čarolija

    Čarolija Well-Known Member

    The more I think about it the more it makes sense for me if the Kings package their two picks and trade into top 3 to get a high level prospect.

    The Kings will have a LOT of kids next season and there is a limit to how many of those you want around. Phoenix is a team that makes some sense to me as a trading partner. They have a bad contract that they want to get rid off in Knight and they might get a pick that is of interest to us. If the King trade their picks (8 and 10) and Afflalo to Phoenix for a top 3 pick and Knight, it makes some sense for both teams.

    Phoenix get Knight's contract off the books (saving some $45 million over the course of the deal) and they can waive Afflalo for what is it $2.5 million??? plus they get two top 10 picks to round out the roster with youth which is what they seem to be aiming for. Meanwhile, Kings get a top 3 pick which allows them to get a high level prospect, Knight who you can't expect too much from but I think he can be re-educated into Bucks version by Joerger. This still leaves the Kings with the ability to sign a max level deal and fill out the roster with a couple of handy vets if needed.
  23. Sactown ExPat

    Sactown ExPat Member

    That's a steep price to pay for Jackson or Ball. Two top 10 picks and Knight's contract. We would need a top 10 protected 2019 from them too.
  24. funkykingston

    funkykingston Well-Known Member

    I love Monk. If he shows true PG skills in workouts then I'd be okay with the Kings taking him. I can squint and see him as a Lillard-like scoring PG but it's a big projection because I've never seen him really run an offense.

    Kind of nice that a player as talented as Monk is being looked at as a contingency plan.
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  25. Jimbob

    Jimbob Well-Known Member

    I just saw that the Wolves won the tiebreaker with the Knicks. Wonder if that will effect how things shake out?
  26. Section 101

    Section 101 Well-Known Member

    Ya hamstring. Bad genes!
  27. Tetsujin

    Tetsujin The Game Thread Dude

    Buddy sorta plays like CJ McCollum. Hey, we'd be the Blazers!
  28. Blob

    Blob Well-Known Member

    Unfortunately Monk doesn't have PG skills. No way. No chance. That guy is scorer. He's a finisher. He's not a draw and dish guy. I like him but he's a SG. I think you or another poster may have had him slotted for 76ers. I agree he makes sense there with Simmons as point forward. Stauskas is not a starter in this league. Simmons needs targets to pass to, and Monk will a great catch and shoot guy. The dude is money. But he's not going to be a King. There are a lot of unknowns this draft.

    But I declare this as a known. Monk will NOT be a King. I stake my reputation on it!

    It is good news if 76ers key in on Monk. Even if 76ers pass I have fair level of confidence Vlade is going to get this right. I think he will be smart enough to draft length and defense and accentuate current strengths of the team. No Monk. No Markannen. Both these guys are good. But what are we going to do with them? I don't see it. They are comparable in terms of talent with what we have (Buddy, Skal) and do not address our weaknesses. Easy pass!

    The more I see Frank N (not gonna bother to spell his last name :)) the more I am comfortable with the Kings drafting him. The guy has a tenacity and presence about him and obvious skillset. We need PG who denies penetration at top of the key. We saw how Rondo caused all sorts of issues allowing dribble penetration. Collison was hardly a stalwart. Lawson does decent job with angles and low center of gravity. But we need long term replacement and potential star.

    Frank can shoot it. He has a poise about him. And he is held back by the half court offense his team runs that suppresses his production.

    Kings were 27th in defensive efficiency. Your defense game plan devolves when you cannot slow point of attack. What's the point of having Temple and Willie and whoever else you think can defend if all they are doing is covering for weaknesses of teammates!!! For a team surrendering too many open 3s we don't need to scrambling all over place due to PG getting burned! Though offensive potential is enticing, this is what Smith and Markannen will bring. You are basically spinning your wheels in mud if their offensive production is not exemplary.

    By contrast Fox and Frank N are not going to get burned on D. Frank N. has traits to be extraordinary ball stopper with skills on other end. This brings me to Smith. I think it was posted in this thread showing his defensive "skills". That was illuminating. As much as I like what Smith can do offensively, his defense is terrible. His lack of length and lateral mobility (ACL recovery?) is obvious. Which ever team drafts him, they will have a hard time keeping him on the floor if his D does not get appreciably better. I am concerned also he has tunnel vision as an offensive player.

    We already saw with guys like Rudy, Tyreke and heck even John Salmons isolation ball does NOT work unless your efficiency is appreciably better than league average. I don't want to take chance again a guy like Smith is going to buck this trend. It would be great if he were an Isaiah Thomas, but I just think the odds are not great.

    A lot of drafting well is process of elimination. I like Zach Collins but not enough to sit where we are if he's the default choice at #10. I am leaning towards wanting to package picks and trading up for Fox, or pick Frank N and Issac if we can get both. If it comes down to Frank N and Collins or Fox, I would rather have Fox. If it comes down to Frank N and Isaac or trading up for Fox, then give me both of those players.

    There's noise and speculation and nonsense this time of year. It s fun! But when you cut through noise, and look at the needs of the team and strengths of draft, its not complicated....

    Get Fox. Or Get Isaac and Frank. Or "die" trying.
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2017
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  29. funkykingston

    funkykingston Well-Known Member

    Yes I see Monk as perfect for Philly. If they get the Lakers pick then Monk and Markkanen plus a FA SG makes for a great supporting cast next to Embiid and Simmons.

    My ideal draft for the Kings (barring lotto magic to jump to #2 or #3) is Isaac and Fox or even Isaac and Ntilikina.

    That said, I'd be okay with Smith if he's there. I've got major concerns with him but he absolutely has star potential where I'm not sure Fox or especially Ntilikina do.

    What's more likely - that a coach/situation convinces DSJ to play hard every possession or that Fox develops an outside shot or Frank N. develops the ability to aggressively turn the corner on defenders?

    That's the million dollar (well multi million actually) question.
  30. Blob

    Blob Well-Known Member

    You and I are on same page, though I am becoming increasingly weary with Smith. This guy is reliant on athleticism with ACL tear. Yikes. I tore my ACL long ago. It was not fun. I am recovered but reaction time is diminished. Even with strength and stability restored , there is innervation issue that affects change of direction and explosiveness. My doctor told me that never comes back, with slight numbness in affected area. Reaction time is not what it was. We have seen this Rondo, who used to be an amazing defender.

    Not to suggest Smith cannot be competent defensively, but it is risk independent of subpar length at PG position. Rondo has arms for miles. Smith not so much. His defense is frankly garbage. The video in this thread wanted to make the case he was a defender. That was not defense! That was a guy who cannot keep future accountant or plumber in front of him. :)

    Wait until Smith goes up against legitimate pro players like [insert 25 of 30 starting PGs in the NBA here]. It won't be pretty. Now maybe he presents as many problems on other end of court. But you are betting on diminished odds and best case scenarios. Maybe it plays out favorable. But I think less uncertainty, less risk exists when you target guys like Fox and Frank, guys with superior length and clean physical exam.

    Dennis Smith Jr. has amazing offensive skills, explosive athleticism, relentless scorers mentality. He also has subpar length, tunnel vision, dubious lateral mobility and reconstructed knee. Do you want to cash in one of your Boogie derived assets for him? I am currently leaning towards "pass". I don't think Kings are made complete nor rebuild successful with a neutral to negative defender a PG. There's better and more obvious path forward.
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