Who do we draft?

Discussion in 'Personnel moves' started by Folsomkingsfan, Mar 7, 2017.

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  1. Folsomkingsfan

    Folsomkingsfan Active Member

    With the NBA season coming to an end its looking like there will be a possibility that we land two top 10 picks. I know there is still 20 or so games left to play, but at this stage in the season the current standings should give us a pretty good idea of where other teams will end up. Assuming we stay in our current area of two picks between 6-11 Who would you like to see us take? Also this is assuming that fultz, ball, Jackson, and Smith are off the board because they seem to be the consensus top 4 guys.

    Personally I'd go jayson Tatum with our lowest pick. NBA ready body, can create his own shot, and is a solid defender. Then with our second first rounder id go Frank ntilikina. I was a deaaron fox fan before but he just seems to unathletic to be dominant at the position. Not to mention his busted shot. Frank is a 6'5 pass first guard who is a menace defensively and who can jump right out of the gym. He's a project player but his ceiling is insane.

    So who would you like to see us target in the draft assume we keep our picks?

    Btw - if this is posted in the wrong area or needs to be combined with another thread feel free to so. I didn't see anything covering this explicitly so didn't know where to put it.
  2. Spike

    Spike Well-Known Member

    It's a great conversation to have once we know how many pick we have, and where we are drafting. Considering there's a puncher's chance that we might not wind up with ANY picks, it's best to wait until that time happens, otherwise, we're just making sausage here.
  3. Glenn

    Glenn Well-Known Member Contributor

    Indeed. It is still at the point where we could get 2 top 5 picks or no 1st round picks whatsoever. I will play along assuming we are 5-10 but I will need some links to be able to to contribute. I like the description of the two players mentioned. I will assume that any player in the top 10 has somewhat of an offensive game and adding defense to the skill set is a huge addition. As predicting the future of picks is really more a matter of luck than absolute skill, the idea of BPA is not a strong argument.

    Do people remember Kawhi Leonard?
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2017
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  4. funkykingston

    funkykingston Well-Known Member

    My favorite player in this draft is Lonzo Ball. I like him more than Fultz and if by some magic the Kings end up with the 2nd pick (or 3rd if Fultz and Jackson go 1-2) I'd take him in a heartbeat. A lot is made of his shooting motion (it does look like he's shooting a bow and arrow a bit) but his release point is actually perfect and he's consistent with it so I don't worry.

    But if the Kings end up with two non-top 3 picks I'd like to see them end up with a PG and a SF from this draft.

    Smith Jr, Ntilikina, Fox or possibly Monk if he shows he can play the 1
    SF Isaac or Tatum or (likely after a trade down) Miles Bridges or Justin Jackson.

    If there's a trade down I'm also really interested in Hartenstein and Rabb. Anunoby could be a great gamble in a trade down scenario too. He's got a ton of potential if he comes back from injury and keeps improving.

    Ntilikina and Isaac would probably be my favorite combination of picks right now. Long, defensive minded and able to play in an aggressive switching defense while having a lot of upside on the offensive end.
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2017
  5. 206Fan

    206Fan Well-Known Member

    I think the Kings will end up with 2 picks between 7-9, so I don't think we'll have a chance at a premier PG.
    I'd draft Jayson Tatum+Frank Ntilikina.

    Ideally, I think we could trade down with our later pick while grabbing another late 1st rounder. Similar to what we did with Phoenix last year. I'd do the 9th pick for the Blazers 11thpick + 21st pick.

    In that case, I'd draft Malik Monk, Miles Bridges, and Isaiah Hartenstein.
  6. Spike

    Spike Well-Known Member

    I'm going to defer to the Capt. as far as number-crunching goes, but, for the purposes of this discussion, my guess is that we have one pick in the 2-5 range (we can't get the first), and another pick in the 5-10 range. I would structure the conversation given that scenario, unless you also want to break it into:

    2 picks in the 2-5 range
    2 picks in the 5-10 range
  7. Capt. Factorial

    Capt. Factorial Cantry Member Staff Member Contributor

    I won't be crunching numbers (yet) because there's just too much we don't know. The standings are actually bunched up very tight so it might not make much sense until the regular season is over to start putting odds on things. At that point crunching the lottery will probably happen.

    I do like the idea of breaking things up into scenarios, which eases the difficulty of asking "what if we get 3/7? What if we get 4/7?", etc.

    I'm not quite as sure on draft order as some here are. I think Monk may rise a bit, and I wouldn't bet against Tatum going higher than we think. But that's all going to clear up down the road.
  8. lwc

    lwc Well-Known Member

    I believe that the Sixers can trade swap our pick but not the Pelicans pick, is that correct? Also, is the Pelicans pick top 3 protected?
  9. VF21

    VF21 #KingsFansForever Staff Member Contributor

    Yes...and yes. It's explained pretty well in the pick discussion thread in Kings Rap forum.
  10. Glenn

    Glenn Well-Known Member Contributor

    Yes and yes. (Addendum: see VF21 :D) It is also the truth as I see it that wherever the Sixers finish and whether or not we swap a pick isn't going to be that significant. This means I don't think there will be much separation in the record of the Kings and Sixers especially when the significant record only bothers us if the Sixers have a record better than us. Did that make sense?

    In any case, I am not watching the Sixers on a daily basis.
  11. kingsboi

    kingsboi Well-Known Member

    I'd like to establish that we have two picks and if we do, where they are slotted before talking who we like and dislike. Until then, there is still some season left to discuss about what we have in Trill, Hield, Skal, Richardson, Bubba moving forward
  12. Glenn

    Glenn Well-Known Member Contributor

    Is Bubba Big Papa? If so, I think he will have little to offer but we might want to keep him deep on the bench in case of emergencies. I think the other 4 have use. Imagine if we get two good 1st rounders and Bogdan comes over. That would be 8 people with three or less years of experience. 7 with almost no experience.
  13. kingsboi

    kingsboi Well-Known Member

    Yeah it's hard to make out what can become of Papa right now since he hasn't played many minutes as Malachi and Skal have. I'm still not holding out hope that Bogdan is coming over but that's just my take. I feel that Bogdan is expendable depending on who and where the Kings draft but we shall see how the chips fall.
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  14. allrightythen

    allrightythen Well-Known Member

    Based on where we are at right now my favorites are Tatum and Ntilikina to fill the SF and PG spots going forward. I do like Isaac at SF as well but I like Tatum a little more. I'm sure lots will change as the draft gets closer but those are my guys right now.
  15. twslam07

    twslam07 Well-Known Member

    Tatum/Isaac with our initial 1st rounder and Ntilikina/Fox/Monk with the second 1st rounder. With out 2nd rounder, I'd like to target J. Evans, T. Bryant, or J. Jeanne.
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  16. John Galt

    John Galt Well-Known Member

    How good are the guys projected to be around 35? I keep hearing it is a deep draft... but does that peter out after the top 10 or so? Or is there the chance to get a keeper at ~35?
  17. Jimbob

    Jimbob Well-Known Member

    Dallas and Portland both won again today, both look to be making a playoff push. We are in a serious tangle with the Wolves, Knicks and Pels all of which should pull ahead of us, but I'm not sure where their motivations lie. Then there are five teams that should have a worse record, although the Suns are looking better.

    So with that we said, Tatum and one of those PG's sounds great and should be available around our range.
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  18. King Baller

    King Baller Well-Known Member

    I know very little about these young players. Frank Ntilikina looks good in this video:

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  19. Čarolija

    Čarolija Well-Known Member

    If we do have two picks inside 10 (still a big if at this stage), ideally you want two all-stars down the track. Common sense says that it will likely be a PG and a SF but given that common sense is not a strong point of this franchise, I can see us drafting a SG (Monk) and a PG.

    I think Tatum will end up being a top 5 pick so I highly doubt we will get him unless we suck our way into top 5 picks and the rest of the cards fall our way.
  20. funkykingston

    funkykingston Well-Known Member

    This is pretty much a standard draft outside the lottery. Tweeners, undersized players, high floor, low ceiling upperclassmen, some international prospects worth gambling on and/or drafting and stashing etc.

    But there are some guys that mocks currently have in the very late first round or second round that I really like:

    Justin Jackson (rightfully seems to be moving up)
    Jawun Evans
    Caleb Swanigan
    Tyler Lydon
    Ethan Happ
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  21. KestrelKing

    KestrelKing Active Member

    I say we do whatever it takes to draft Dennis Smith Jr. Our current draft position wont get it done but I would even trade up to make it happen if necessary. This kid looks like a star to me.
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  22. funkykingston

    funkykingston Well-Known Member

    I think Tatum will be all over on team's draft boards. He's got good tools and is really, really skilled offensively for his age but he's also a Paul Pierce/Carmelo type player whose game is midrange focused and who is best posting up or ISO'ing. In today's NBA he's a bit of a throwback and pace and space teams might not see him as a fit.

    IMO for Tatum to have more widespread appeal he has to be a consistent shooter from three. He's looked significantly improved from outside recently but he also has a lot of windup on that jumper. He'll need to learn to catch the ball on a hop and set his feet and get it out a bit faster on the next level.
  23. funkykingston

    funkykingston Well-Known Member

    I haven't been nearly as high in Smith Jr as others. It may be that I keep going back to Steve Francis as a comp that is biasing me against him. But that last game he really did look bad and he got outplayed. And it's a bit of what we saw with Ben Simmons where you wonder how such a talented player couldn't lead his team to more wins.*

    Combine all that with the injury history and I'm really wary. I could be totally wrong as he does have star potential whereas other guys I like (Ntilikina, Isaac & Markkanen) look like high level role players but he makes me nervous.

    *I give Fultz a bit of a pass on not elevating his team as Romar has shown himself to be an A+ recruiter and a C- coach.
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  24. Čarolija

    Čarolija Well-Known Member

    Baby steps! :)

    He has improved his long range shooting this year and it's one thing that was the question mark on him to start the season. See, for example, I would have more concern about Ball's shooting mechanics than Tatum's. Ball has that wind up shooting mechanics similar to what Kevin Martin had. Can he create enough separation to get that shot off?

    Shooting off the dribble he seems competent enough when he drives left and pulls up. However, when he goes right, he does not go for a pull up because his mechanics needs him to wind up from his left and his body needs to be at a certain angle to the basket (not squared btw) for him to get his shot off. His FT percentage is concerning. For example someone like Martin, even with the funky mechanics he was highly efficient from the free throw line.

    I am also not convinced of his ability to run the half court offense. He seems to do most of the damage in the open floor. Don't get me wrong, there is a lot to like there but there are enough red flags for me to pause and think about whether he really is a can't miss prospect.

    I see Tatum as someone who can come in and have an immediate impact. He can score, he can rebound well for his position and he can defend well enough. He can create his own shot....you can isolate him and let him go to work if you need to. Eventually, his game is going to demand more respect so he will have better opportunities to create for others due to the attention he will eventually get.

    He is a bit of a iso player but he is young enough to learn how to move the ball and move off the ball to get better looks. IMHO, whoever gets Tatum will be getting a very good prospect who can contribute from day one and be a very good player, all-star level for a very long time.
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  25. Jimbob

    Jimbob Well-Known Member

    Do you prefer Isaac's and Jackson's game over Tatum?
  26. upinsmoke

    upinsmoke Well-Known Member

    With that 2nd rounder I would like to take Jordan Bell. He's a scrapper and quick off his feet he's reminds me of a Q. Acy mold players that every team could use.
  27. andjel

    andjel Well-Known Member

    While I agree that it is too early to get exact probabilities, I am giving shot of estimating where we are in the realistic worse case scenarios.

    Our/Philly pick (easy, we are not losing this one):
    Kings/Philly would have to be better than teams fighting for playoff by two wins to get out of bottom 9. Not gonna happen.
    Chance of two teams bellow 10th place winning the top 3 picks is tiny (less than one percent). Only twice did the team below 10th place ended up with the top 3 pick, and that was in different years.
    I am ready to take bets that we will keep the pick (either ours or Philly's) and it will be top 10.

    Pelicans Pick (tricky):
    Option A) Pelicans sink
    They are not getting below Nets and Lakers, and by far most probably Suns ( I do not see how they can be worse than Kings/Orlando/76, but lets ignore that).
    The worse case scenario is 4th worse team.
    4th worse gives them 38% chance of getting top 3 (5th spot 29.3%; 6th spot 21.5%; 7th spot 15%; 8th spot 10%; 9th spot 6.1%; 10th spot 4%...).
    Exciting gambling, higher risk of losing the pick, higher reward if we keep it.
    Worse case scenario we have 62% chance to have the second top 10 pick.

    Option B) Pelicans rise
    That one is hard to predict, but even if they make a playoff, considering % in the east conference, they will be the lowest team (six wins behind the east coast playoff teams and 10 games behind OKC) in the playoff which is good for 15th pick.
    Worse case scenario Kings second pick is top 15.
  28. funkykingston

    funkykingston Well-Known Member

    With Ball I worry about two things: One is his dad and his seeming desire to push him to the Lakers (who may not even have a pick) and the other is how he operates a halfcourt offense which is where things go in the playoffs.
    But Ball is such a rare talent that I think you take the same approach I was advocating last year with Simmons. You put the ball in his hands, build your team around his skillset and let him run things. His shot isn't actually slow, it's just awkward looking but his release point is actually pretty close to ideal. And given that Jason Kidd was the 2nd pick, and co-rookie of the year I don't worry about Ball. He's on the same level as a passer and floor general and while his shot is funky, he's far more advanced offensively than Kidd who couldn't shoot a lick early on. Not to mention being bigger/longer, more athletic and a slightly better defender.
    As for Tatum I like him a lot. But is he a Jabari Parker or Rudy Gay type player? A decent rebounder, decent defender (when engaged) and good iso scorer who doesn't move the ball and isn't super efficient?
    He's a smooth athlete but not a really explosive or gifted one. And he HAS shown some vision but isn't always willing to pass. If that changed I could see him as a poor man's Grant Hill which would be an great package, especially if his outside shooting continues to develop.
    Talent wise I have him as the third or fourth best prospect. But the TYPE of player he becomes is the big concern to me.
  29. funkykingston

    funkykingston Well-Known Member

    Yes and no. I like watching Tatum the most. He's insanely skilled for his age.

    Jackson is a bit of a weird prospect. Not super long and shooting is a big concern but he's got a motor, is aggressive defensively and is a capable and willing passer. He's like a poor man's Scottie Pippen, minus the freakish wingspan.

    Isaac to me looks like a role player. But he looks like an ideal roleplayer for today's NBA if he fills out and shows the ability to play on the wing as well as a small ball four.

    He's long, he rebounds, he defends, he blocks shots and while he has a slow motion and the results aren't quite there it's easy to see him as a 3&D player who can maybe be more.

    Tatum might well have the most upside and I think he has the highest floor. But is his game too much of a throwback in this day of analytics saying threes and dunks only?

    I don't know.
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2017
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  30. allrightythen

    allrightythen Well-Known Member

    Did you mean Isaac with that second line?
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