The Countdown to Tuesday, May 16

Discussion in 'Kings Rap' started by jcassio, Apr 7, 2017.

  1. jcassio

    jcassio Well-Known Member

    Here's a look at the NBA's bottom-dwellers with their current records and final games as of this evening, 4/7. Also my best-guess as to how many losses they will each finish with. If I'm in the ballpark, the biggest shift in the 1-10 last-place order will be the Kings swapping places with the Mavs and finishing with the 9th worst record. The Pels would follow us with the 10th worst record. The Hornets are likely to lose their final 3 games, but that would only move them to the 11th worst record. So unless the Kings move up in the lottery, chances are we will end up with the 9th and 10th picks in the draft.

    1. Brooklyn (19-60/.241) (Bulls on Sat) (Celtics on Mon) (Bulls on Wed) likely to lose their last 3 games, giving them 63 losses.

    2. Phoenix (22-57/.278) (playing Thunder on Fri) (Mavs on Sun) (Kings on Tues) could lose 1 or all 3 of their remaining games, giving them 58-60 losses.

    3. Los Angeles Lakers (23-55/.295) (playing Kings on Fri) (Wolves on Sun) (Pels on Tues) (Warriors on Wed) could lose 2 or all 4 of their remaining games, giving them 57-59 losses.

    4. Orlando (28-51/.354) (Pacers on Sat) (Bulls on Mon) (Pistons on Wed) likely to lose 2 or all 3 of their remaining games, giving them 53-54 losses.

    4. Philadelphia (28-51/.354) (Bucks on Sat) (Pacers on Mon) (Knicks on Wed) likely to lose 2 or all 3 of their remaining games, giving them 53-54 losses.

    4. New York (30-50/.375) (lost to Grizz on Fri) (Raptors on Sun) (76ers on Wed) could lose 1 or both of their remaining games, giving them 51-52 losses.

    7. Minnesota (31-47/.397) (playing Jazz on Fri) (Lakers on Sun) (Thunder on Tues) (Rockets on Wed) likely to lose 3 of their remaining games, giving them 50 losses.

    7. Sacramento (31-47/.397) (playing Lakers on Fri) (Rockets on Sun) (Suns on Tues) (Clippers on Wed) likely to lose 2 of their remaining games, giving them 49 losses.

    9. Dallas (32-47/.405) (Suns on Sun) (Nuggets on Tues) (Grizz on Wed) could lose 2 or all 3 of their remaining games, giving them 49-50 losses.

    10. New Orleans (33-45/.423) (losing to Nuggets on Fri) (Warriors on Sat) (Lakers on Tues) (Blazers on Wed) could lose 3 of their remaining games, giving them 48 losses.

    Other teams that could fall into the bottom 10 (or top 10 for ping pong balls):
    Charlotte Hornets (36-43/.456) may lose their last 3 games (Celtics, Bucks & Hawks) which would give them 46 losses.
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2017
  2. Sac.1989

    Sac.1989 Well-Known Member

    Watch us go 3-0

    Could have easily been a playoff year
  3. VF21

    VF21 #KingsFansForever Staff Member Contributor

    Nice summary, and good to have in one thread. Can you keep it updated for reference? Thanks! :)
  4. steelevt

    steelevt Well-Known Member

    just to refresh my memory, incase of ties between us, minny or dallas, its a coin flip right? or tiebreakers?
  5. VF21

    VF21 #KingsFansForever Staff Member Contributor

    Lottery spot ties are broken by coin flips.
    steelevt likes this.
  6. Jimbob

    Jimbob Well-Known Member

    Funny but we have a very good history of winning coin flips.
  7. jcassio

    jcassio Well-Known Member

    UPDATE:
    Here's the NBA's bottom-dwellers with their current records and games left to be played AFTER FRIDAY'S GAMES (4/7).
    Also an update on my best-guess as to how many losses they will each finish with.
    As of now, the Kings are in a 2-way tie for the 7th worst record, but look to be finishing the season in a 2- or 3-way tie for the 7th worst record (if the Mavs drop all 3 remaining games).
    And the Pels look to be finishing the season with the 10th worst record.

    1. Brooklyn (19-60/.241) (Bulls on Sat) (Celtics on Mon) (Bulls on Wed) likely to lose their last 3 games, giving them 63 losses.

    2. Phoenix (22-57/.278) (playing Thunder on Fri) (Mavs on Sun) (Kings on Tues) could lose 1 or all 3 of their remaining games, giving them 58-60 losses.

    3. Los Angeles Lakers (24-55/.304) (Wolves on Sun) (Pels on Tues) (Warriors on Wed) could lose 2 or all 3 of their remaining games, giving them 57-58 losses.

    4. Orlando (28-51/.354) (Pacers on Sat) (Bulls on Mon) (Pistons on Wed) likely to lose 2 or all 3 of their remaining games, giving them 53-54 losses.

    4. Philadelphia (28-51/.354) (Bucks on Sat) (Pacers on Mon) (Knicks on Wed) likely to lose 2 or all 3 of their remaining games, giving them 53-54 losses.

    6. New York (30-50/.375) (Raptors on Sun) (76ers on Wed) could lose 1 or both of their remaining games, giving them 51-52 losses.

    7. Minnesota (31-48/.392) (Lakers on Sun) (Thunder on Tues) (Rockets on Wed) likely to lose 2 of their remaining games, giving them 50 losses.

    7. Sacramento (31-48/.392) (Rockets on Sun) (Suns on Tues) (Clippers on Wed) likely to lose 2 of their remaining games, giving them 50 losses.

    9. Dallas (32-47/.405) (Suns on Sun) (Nuggets on Tues) (Grizz on Wed) could lose 2 or all 3 of their remaining games, giving them 49-50 losses.

    10. New Orleans (33-46/.418) (Warriors on Sat) (Lakers on Tues) (Blazers on Wed) could lose 1 or 2 of their remaining games, giving them 47-48 losses.
  8. kingdivac

    kingdivac Well-Known Member

    Was really hoping a couple weeks ago the Kings would be sitting where the Knicks are right now, record-wise....it would be great if the Pelicans tie the Mavericks and flip for #9. Ideally the Kings getting 7 and 9 would be a reasonable hope at this late juncture.
  9. Capt. Factorial

    Capt. Factorial Cantry Member Staff Member Contributor

    Don't jinx it!
  10. Capt. Factorial

    Capt. Factorial Cantry Member Staff Member Contributor

    I know there's a bit of angst about the remote possibility of us losing BOTH picks (i.e., if the Pelicans jump into the top three and we fall out of the top ten). Once the season is over I'll post a final update with fuller numbers, but for now, I just want to address the worst-case scenarios.

    The Kings can finish no higher than 10th. We are one Pelicans loss (or one Detroit+Charlotte win) from guaranteeing that the Pelicans also finish no higher than 10th. Since we can assume that will probably happen, the worst case scenarios are either Kings 9th/Pels 10th or Kings 10th/Pels 9th.

    If it's Kings 9th/Pelicans 10th, the probability that we lose both picks is 0.2%. 2 in 1000. The Pelicans would have about a 4% chance of hitting the lottery, losing us their pick. Our chance of moving up to #11/#12 and losing our own pick would be about 0.4%. Altogether there would be about a 96% chance that we would have two picks.

    If it's Kings 10th/Pelicans 9th, the probability that we lose both picks is 0.3%. 3 in 1000. The Pelicans would have about a 6% chance of hitting the lottery, losing us their pick. Our chance of moving up to #11/#12/#13 and losing our own pick would be about 9%. Altogether there would be about an 85% chance that we would have two picks.
    lwc, King Baller, Warhawk and 7 others like this.
  11. jcassio

    jcassio Well-Known Member

    What a killjoy!
    King Baller likes this.
  12. Section 101

    Section 101 Well-Known Member

    To extend the post:

    Pels at Warriors tonight (No Curry) still looks to be a loss, at Lakers (Win) at Portland (leaning loss). Finish 34-48.

    Mavs at Suns (pickem), home Nuggets (loss), at Grizz (loss), hoping they beat the Suns finish 33-49.

    Wolves at Lakers (win), home Thunder (loss), at Rockets (loss) finish 32-50.

    Kings home Rockets (loss), home Suns (win), at Clippers (loss) finish 32-50.

    The biggest help the Kings need is Pels moving down to 9. It could be the difference between getting a PG (Frank Ntilikina) or there all gone assuming one isn't picked earlier (Tatum/Isaac).

    Swapping (top 3) would be a better case scenario too if it means picking 5th over 8th.

    Beating the Mavs was a double whammy, moved us up and kept them from passing the Pels.
  13. kingdivac

    kingdivac Well-Known Member

    This is a fairly reassuring post. If the Kings pick 9/10 and both Fox and Smith are already picked up, would not mind going for Markkenon and Bridges together, and trying to stay with Collison/Lawson at point. Getting an expert marksman prospect in Markkenon seems like a great idea for the roster.
    John Galt likes this.
  14. jcassio

    jcassio Well-Known Member

    UPDATE:
    Here's the NBA's top ten lotto candidates with their current records and games left to be played AFTER SATURDAY'S GAMES (4/8).
    Also an update on my best-guess as to how many losses they will each finish with.
    As of now, the Kings are in a 2-way tie for the 7th worst record, but could finish the season in a 3-way tie for the 7th worst record (if the Mavs drop all 3 of their remaining games). For lottery purposes, ties are broken with coin flips.
    The Pels look to be finishing the season with the 9th or 10th worst record, depending on whether Davis and DMC are out for the rest of the season, and on Dallas' ability (or inability) to win 1 of their last 3 games.

    1. Brooklyn (12-60/.250) (Celtics on Mon) (Bulls on Wed) likely to lose their last 2 games, giving them 62 losses.

    2. Phoenix (23-57/.288) (Mavs on Sun) (Kings on Tues) could lose 1 or both of their remaining games, giving them 58-59 losses.

    3. Los Angeles Lakers (24-55/.304) (Wolves on Sun) (Pels on Tues) (Warriors on Wed) could lose 2 or all 3 of their remaining games, giving them 57-58 losses.

    4. Orlando (28-52/.350) (Bulls on Mon) (Pistons on Wed) likely to lose 1 or both of their remaining games, giving them 53-54 losses.

    4. Philadelphia (28-52/.350) (Pacers on Mon) (Knicks on Wed) likely to lose 1 or both of their remaining games, giving them 53-54 losses.

    6. New York (30-50/.375) (Raptors on Sun) (76ers on Wed) could lose 1 or both of their remaining games, giving them 51-52 losses.

    7. Minnesota (31-48/.392) (Lakers on Sun) (Thunder on Tues) (Rockets on Wed) likely to lose 2 of their remaining games, giving them 50 losses.

    7. Sacramento (31-48/.392) (Rockets on Sun) (Suns on Tues) (Clippers on Wed) likely to lose 2 of their remaining games, giving them 50 losses.

    9. Dallas (32-47/.405) (Suns on Sun) (Nuggets on Tues) (Grizz on Wed) could lose 2 or all 3 of their remaining games, giving them 49-50 losses.

    10. New Orleans (33-47/.413) (Lakers on Tues) (Blazers on Wed) could lose 1 or both of their remaining games, giving them 48-49 losses. The Pels held out both Davis and Cousins on Saturday. If they keep them out for the last 2 games, they'll finish with 49 losses.

    Next in line, but not cracking the top (bottom) ten:
    Charlotte - If they lose their final 2 games (against the Bucks and the Hawks), they'll finish with 46 losses. Still well behind the Pels.
    Detroit - They have 3 games left (Grizz, Wiz, Magic) and are likely to lose 2 of those games, finishing with 45 losses.
  15. Section 101

    Section 101 Well-Known Member

  16. kingdivac

    kingdivac Well-Known Member

    7 and 9.....Smith Jr. and Markonnen...one can hope.
  17. jcassio

    jcassio Well-Known Member

    UPDATE:
    Here's the NBA's top ten lotto candidates with their current records and games left to be played AFTER SUNDAY'S GAMES (4/9).
    Also an update on my best-guess as to how many losses they will each finish with.
    As of now, the Kings are in a 2-way tie with the Wolves for the 7th worst record, but could finish the season in a 3-way tie for the 7th worst record (if the Mavs drop both of their remaining games). The Kings could also end up in a 2-way tie with the Mavs for the 8th worst record. For lottery purposes, ties are broken with coin flips.
    The Pels look to be finishing the season with the 10th worst record.

    1. Brooklyn (12-60/.250) (Celtics on Mon) (Bulls on Wed) likely to lose their last 2 games, giving them 62 losses.

    2. Phoenix (24-57/.296) (Kings on Tues) could win or lose their 1 remaining game against the Kings. So they will finish with 57-58 losses.

    3. Los Angeles Lakers (25-55/.313) (Pels on Tues) (Warriors on Wed) could lose 1 or both of their remaining games, giving them 56-57 losses.

    4. Orlando (28-52/.350) (Bulls on Mon) (Pistons on Wed) likely to lose 1 or both of their remaining games, giving them 53-54 losses.

    4. Philadelphia (28-52/.350) (Pacers on Mon) (Knicks on Wed) likely to lose 1 or both of their remaining games, giving them 53-54 losses.

    6. New York (30-51/.370) (76ers on Wed) could win or lose their 1 remaining game against the 76ers. So they will finish with 51-52 losses.

    7. Minnesota (31-49/.388) (Thunder on Tues) (Rockets on Wed) likely to lose both of their remaining games, giving them 51 losses.

    7. Sacramento (31-49/.388) (Suns on Tues) (Clippers on Wed) likely to lose 1 or both of their remaining games, giving them 50-51 losses.

    9. Dallas (32-48/.400) (Nuggets on Tues) (Grizz on Wed) could lose both of their remaining games, giving them 50 losses.

    10. New Orleans (33-47/.413) (Lakers on Tues) (Blazers on Wed) could lose 1 or both of their remaining games, giving them 48-49 losses. The Pels held out both Davis and Cousins on Saturday. If they keep them out for the last 2 games, they'll finish with 49 losses.
  18. John Galt

    John Galt Well-Known Member

    Neither the Nuggets nor the Grizzlies have anything to play for so maybe Dallas can win one of those.
    Hopefully the Pels beat the Lakers which would cement us no worse than 8th with an expected Kings loss to the "hungry for home court" Clippers on Wed.

    Would sure be nice if the Kings could lose to Phoenix so I don't have to root for Clippers Wed - that would break my soul.
    lwc likes this.
  19. kingdivac

    kingdivac Well-Known Member

    I'd much rather see the Pelicans lose to the Lakers in the hopes that they coin flip with the Mavericks at the end of the season, but Mavs appear a lose-all - for the coin-flip they'd have to win one and the Pels lose both. Kings still need the 2 final losses to avoid coin flipping with the Mavs and keep the possibility of getting the 7th pick more alive. Luckily for the Kings the TWolves came through and beat the Lakers yesterday. 7 is still a possibility. Its a big jump too, as it may be the last high-end PG spot. Another idea I'd brought up would be for the Kings to go Markkanen and Bridges or Markkanen and Issac while keeping with Collison and Lawson. I think Markkanen can fulfill a specialist position - a 7ft 3pt shooter with fadeways - giving the Kings more versatility with lineups and attacks. I think Bridges has more potential to be a star than Markkanen. However if Smith Jr is there, I think he's priority for the 7 or 8 first pick. Kings could use a fearless PG who's not afraid to mix it up. Unfortunately if they pick up a PG, they may elect not to resign Lawson. At this point in Lawson's career injury potential is more of a concern vs a young draft pick.
  20. parker

    parker Well-Known Member

    You must have missed the final seconds of that game.

    Minnesota lost.
    lwc likes this.
  21. Jimbob

    Jimbob Well-Known Member

    Today Jazz play Warriors in GS, and Clips play Houston in LA. Should be interesting and might effect how the Clips play us in LA on the final game. Still, I think they will try to beat us regardless after that 1 point humiliating loss in LA a week or so ago.
    Suicide King likes this.
  22. Blob

    Blob Well-Known Member

    Good point. The Clips hold tie breaker over Jazz for 4th seed with teams tied (49-31) and two game left. For Clippers to have added incentive vs SAC they need to go into that game needing win to force a tie with Jazz. Let's say Jazz lose vs Warriors and Clips beat Rockets tonight. That gives Clips one game lead then the last game is irrelevant. If both teams lose tonight and Jazz beat Spurs before Kings game on Wed (probable) then Clips need to win vs Kings to get home court in 1st round.

    What makes it interesting is Kings could get hype for that game if they have chance to knock the Clips down to 5th seed. If you are competitor and you are not in playoffs that could be your playoffs! You can play hand in sending home the Clips in 1st round by forcing them to go on road. So it is interesting how that psychologically works. I think if the Kings need to lose the game to help draft status, and game is close, Joerger will pull his PGs off the floor in the 4th. The tank will be warmed and revved if need be. ;)
  23. Jimbob

    Jimbob Well-Known Member

    Both the Jazz and the Clips won today. It stays interesting with two games to go.
  24. jcassio

    jcassio Well-Known Member

    UPDATE:
    Here's the NBA's top ten lotto candidates with their current records and games left to be played AFTER MONDAY'S GAMES (4/10).
    Also an update on my best-guess as to how many losses they will each finish with.
    As of now, the Kings are in a 2-way tie with the Wolves for the 7th worst record, but could finish the season in a 3-way tie for the 7th worst record (if the Mavs drop both of their remaining games). The Kings could also end up in a 2-way tie with the Mavs for the 8th worst record. For lottery purposes, ties are broken with coin flips.
    The Pels look to be finishing the season with the 10th worst record.

    1. Brooklyn (20-61/.247) (Bulls on Wed) likely to lose their last game, giving them 62 losses.

    2. Phoenix (24-57/.296) (Kings on Tues) could win or lose their 1 remaining game against the Kings. So they will finish with 57-58 losses.

    3. Los Angeles Lakers (25-55/.313) (Pels on Tues) (Warriors on Wed) could lose 1 or both of their remaining games, giving them 56-57 losses.

    4. Orlando (28-53/.346) (Pistons on Wed) likely to lose their 1 remaining game, giving them 54 losses.

    4. Philadelphia (28-53/.346) (Knicks on Wed) could win or lose their 1 remaining game, giving them 53-54 losses.

    6. New York (30-51/.370) (76ers on Wed) could win or lose their 1 remaining game against the 76ers. So they will finish with 51-52 losses.

    7. Minnesota (31-49/.388) (Thunder on Tues) (Rockets on Wed) likely to lose both of their remaining games, giving them 51 losses.

    7. Sacramento (31-49/.388) (Suns on Tues) (Clippers on Wed) likely to lose 1 or both of their remaining games, giving them 50-51 losses.

    9. Dallas (32-48/.400) (Nuggets on Tues) (Grizz on Wed) could lose both of their remaining games, giving them 50 losses.

    10. New Orleans (33-47/.413) (Lakers on Tues) (Blazers on Wed) could lose 1 or both of their remaining games, giving them 48-49 losses. The Pels held out both Davis and Cousins on Saturday. If they keep them out for the last 2 games, they'll finish with 49 losses.
  25. Blob

    Blob Well-Known Member

    As bad of Wolves are - and believe I know how bad they are because I have watched their last half dozen games rooting for them in futility to win - you can't conclude it is likely they will lose when opponents have nothing to play for (OKC and HOU) with seeding secure gearing up for playoffs this weekend. If I am coach of those teams, I am giving Westbrook and Harden those games off along with other main guys. Same may go for the Wolves too (with Towns and Wiggins), then it turns into battle of the 8th through 15th man. I don't think any outcome is "likely" when it is end of bench versus end of bench.

    Also Thibs has shown as recently as last game versus Lakers he wants to win, with his main guys playing most of the 4th. Unfortunately one of those guys is Rubio. Anyway these games are toss up including last two Kings games. In way I think the Kings could play better game tomorrow in LA rather than tonight vs Suns because if they have a chance to knock Clippers down a seed in the playoff rung, from 4th to 5th, they may look at that game as their playoff game! It will be up to our coach to keep this enthusiasm in check with some strategic substitutions ;)
  26. hrdboild

    hrdboild Well-Known Member

    Westbrook is sitting out against Minnesota. I bet OKC wins by a point anyway.
    Blob likes this.
  27. kingdivac

    kingdivac Well-Known Member

    Ah indeed, my mistake thanks....
  28. Jimbob

    Jimbob Well-Known Member

    Yep, that's what the Wolves do well, fall apart in the final mins. If the Wolves do end up picking ahead of us I hope they like Markkanen. They have Wiggins, and drafted Dunn last year, but that has not paid dividends so far,
    Suicide King likes this.
  29. hrdboild

    hrdboild Well-Known Member

    I don't think Dunn looks nearly as bad as his poor stats indicate. People are calling him a bust already but watching him play a few times, all the reasons I loved him as a prospect are still apparent and Thibs should be the perfect coach for him. I think he'll be the starting PG in Minnesota in a couple years once he learns the system and becomes more comfortable picking his spots and controlling the pace. I feel the same way about Mudiay. If you look at his performance peak, he still looks like a very good player he just doesn't show it often enough to succeed right now in a lead role. His defense is a bigger issue than his offense and you know Mike Malone is going to bench anybody who misses their assignments regularly. In general I think people jump to too many conclusions on rookie performance both good and bad. If you like them as prospects you should reserve judgement for a couple years rather than expecting immediate results.
    jcassio likes this.
  30. Jimbob

    Jimbob Well-Known Member

    I agree, its way too early to make conclusions about Dunn. Hes who I was hoping to get last draft, I win some, lose some, and some just to early to tell. Iv'e gone on about Stanley, however, I primarily wanted Mudiay the year before and he was there for the picking but again the verdict is still out. Payton was my pick the year before that.
    Seems I just want a PG so hopefully this year. That's why if we fall behind the Wolves, I hope they go with a stretch 4.

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