The art and agony of the tank (split from game thread)

[ParniValjak]

I like your post and agree about Joerger, the positives of winning and culture for our youth, great bunch of young guys that seem to enjoy playing together. I also don't believe in the Hinkie philosophy and if someone does go above Vlade maybe Levin is a good choice, I don't know.
Some of us do get caught up in the winning or losing down the stretch but for me anyhow I don't think myself part of a tanking contingent. It's whats happening with the bottom dwellers and its very obvious in this talented draft. After 12 years of no playoffs I think many of us just want these picks to be as good as possible to hopefully get out of this miserable lottery position that we have been in for so long.
I believe we are on the up, hopefully by 2019 that pick Vlade gave up will be a so what its in the twenties anyway. Let some other fans get worked up about the art of tanking.

But getting an early pick is no guarantees. Paul George (10), Jimmy Butler (30), Leonard (15), Giannis (15) etc... are all-stars/franchise level players that were drafted from mid lottery onwards. Meanwhile guys like Bennett (1), T. Thompson (4), Thabeet (2), T. Robinson (5), D. Williams (2) etc.. were all top 5 picks. There are no guarantees and in this draft its just as likely that you get your franchise guy at 10 as it is to get them at 3.

 

[Kingster]

With as tight as the Clips race for home court advantage is with the Jazz, chance is its a must win game for the Clips vs Kings.

We'll see. Veteran teams don't really seem to care as much about home court advantage as they do being well rested going into the playoffs.

 

[Jimbob]

But getting an early pick is no guarantees. Paul George (10), Jimmy Butler (30), Leonard (15), Giannis (15) etc... are all-stars/franchise level players that were drafted from mid lottery onwards. Meanwhile guys like Bennett (1), T. Thompson (4), Thabeet (2), T. Robinson (5), D. Williams (2) etc.. were all top 5 picks. There are no guarantees and in this draft its just as likely that you get your franchise guy at 10 as it is to get them at 3.

Yeah that's been a trend over the last decade or so that some of the best players get drafted later. Perhaps its the change from a big mans game to small ball. I don't know for sure but its an interesting trend. Hopefully your right about this draft.

 

[jpsls]

But getting an early pick is no guarantees. Paul George (10), Jimmy Butler (30), Leonard (15), Giannis (15) etc... are all-stars/franchise level players that were drafted from mid lottery onwards. Meanwhile guys like Bennett (1), T. Thompson (4), Thabeet (2), T. Robinson (5), D. Williams (2) etc.. were all top 5 picks. There are no guarantees and in this draft its just as likely that you get your franchise guy at 10 as it is to get them at 3.

There actually isn't a meta-analysis to confirm whether or not picking higher is better. The only brief examination was done here http://www.nba.com/magic/gallery/cohen-8ball-history-picking-1-8-nba-draft-percentage-all-stars-1980

 

[Big Cuz 15]

fake show bout to be firmly placed in third after win tonight. will be music to the ears if they get bumped to 4th, 5th spot and lose their pick.

btw, hell breaking loose on fake show forum over win. lol

 

[Kingsfan23]

I'm genuinely concerned that Detroit might lose their remaining games and we could win the remaining 4 at this point

I'm just assuming the rest strategy will be kept the same through years end

 

[Suicide King]

Pop playing 4d chess.

@Carolija @Jimbob

I agree that while higher picks allow you more prospects to choose from, you still have to make a good choice. The term best player available gets thrown around a lot. We need to do our homework and be as sure as we can that we are in fact selecting the best player available. Making our picks count has been more detrimental to our struggle out of purgatory than what number we picked. Draft order just represents the size of the remaining draft pool.

 

[jcassio]

There actually isn't a meta-analysis to confirm whether or not picking higher is better. The only brief examination was done here http://www.nba.com/magic/gallery/cohen-8ball-history-picking-1-8-nba-draft-percentage-all-stars-1980

I posted this in the Kings-beat-the-Mavericks thread, but I think it's even more relevant in this thread:

Look at the top 3 draft picks for the last 7 years (below). In hindsight, only one of the three (on average) looks to be a justified top 3 pick. If you expand from the top 3 to the top 5, or to the top 10, the lesson is the same. Only about 1 in 3 high draft picks look justified with the benefit of hindsight. If you expand back beyond 2010, the same lesson is there, too. So the teams follow these prospects and (hopefully) make informed choices (draft picks). But the odds of a high pick being justified are not good! Doesn't mean it's a total crap shoot, but it does mean that there's a significant element of chance. In other words, I see no reason to assume that having a top 3 draft pick is significantly better than having a top 6 draft pick. And I see no reason to assume that having a top 6 draft pick is significantly better than having a top 9 draft pick. Yes, the chances are better, but not significantly better. I think you can significantly affect your odds if you allow uninformed people to influence the decision. Remember Jimmer? T-Rob? Unfortunately, the Kings have made their share of bad draft decisions. But that was then and this is now.

2016:
Ben Simmons, 76ers
Brandon Ingram, Lakers
Jaylen Brown, Celtics
Too early to tell if any of these guys should have been in the top 3.

2015:
Karl-Anthony Towns, Wolves
D'Angelo Russell, Lakers
Jahlil Okafor, 76ers
May be too early to tell, but right now it looks like only KAT should have been in the top 3.

2014:
Andrew Wiggins, Cavs (then to Wolves in the Kevin Love deal)
Jabari Parker, Bucks
Joel Embiid, 76ers
At this point, only 1 or 2 of the 3 should have been in the top 3 (depending on your optimism for Embiid's health).

2013:
Anthony Bennett, Cavs
Victor Oladipo, Magic (then to Thunder in the Serge Ibaka deal)
Otto Porter, Wizards
Oladipo and Porter are good players with fine upsides, but I'm not sure that any of these guys should have been in the top 3.

2012:
Anthony Davis, New Orleans
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bobcats/Hornets (then to ...)
Bradley Beal, Wizards
Only 1 of the 3 should have been in the top 3, although Beal's star is rising.

2011:
Kyrie Irving, Cavs
Derrick Williams, Wolves (who cares the journey from there)
Enes Kanter, Jazz (then to Thunder)
Only 1 of the 3 should have been in the top 3.

2010:
John Wall, Wizards
Evan Turner, 76ers (then to Pacers, Celtics, Blazers)
Derrick Favors, Nets (then to Jazz)
Only 1 of the 3 should have been in the top 3. Favors is not a bad player, but a top 3?

 

[Blob]

Having pretty much given up on my favorite prospect De'Aaron Fox (since he's probably going Top 5), I hope we can get Ntlinkina and Isaac. These last 4 games need to be used to position us for that possibility. A great PG prospect and SF prospect is what the long-suffering Kings fans deserve!!! For fans averse to tanking, think of it this way: us losing on purpose is not tanking, it is a strategic effort to reward the long-suffering fans!

Collison and Lawson need to be given the rest of the season off. Last nights team loses 19 out of 20 NBA games if the opponent is not trying even harder than us to lose. We can do even better (worse)! If we are in the game in the crunch time all the players having the worst games need to be put in. And playing players out of position should not be out of the realm of possibility either! I am talking Buddy at PG and Ben at PF!

This is how Coach Joerger needs to think about this: He is coaching partly for his longevity and next contract. If the team lands two cornerstone players this year, he's coaching a 45-50 win team in a couple of years and he's going to be positioning himself for a new 5 year 40 million contract. By contrast if he tries to win these next four games, the team could draft two duds and he's back in the D-League in 2020!!! Do the right thing for the fans and your kids college fund, Coach Joerger!

 

[Jimbob]

I'm genuinely concerned that Detroit might lose their remaining games and we could win the remaining 4 at this point

I'm just assuming the rest strategy will be kept the same through years end

Iv'e been watching Detroit as well but more as it effects the NO pick. I thought they had today's game but unfortunately Lowry came back today from an illness and slapped the Pistons in the 4th.

 

[ParniValjak]

There is simply no way in hell Joerger will coach back in the D-League. He is one of the better NBA coaches going around and he will have no trouble finding a job in the NBA especially with the number of teams that turn over coaches every off-season.

 

[kingdivac]

Where ever we draft, Fox will go right before we pick. If it's 7, he'll go 6. If we're 9th, he'll last till #8. KANGZ

Its difficult to tell if Fox will be the 2nd or even 3rd best PG in the draft. Smith appears the better shooter and possibly the better passer too. Ball has the best motor of any guard in the draft though his defense looks average, ditto on the defense for Smith. Fultz looks to be the best prospect, but who knows. The Kings could get Fox, and he pans out like say Aaron Brooks - maybe a bit disappointing. I think he looks closer to Conley, so I would not be upset with getting Fox either. Although I certainly could be wrong, I'm not high on Monk or Tatum - they seem like safer "B" picks with lower ceilings but above average from start. Monk reminds me of Jamal Crawford, and Tatum, well, I just wasn't as impressed. I'm sure the Kings will pick Tatum and Monk, now.....but getting 2 picks is a win even if they're 8 and 10 or Tatum and Monk. I'm hoping for 7 and 9....and Smith/Fox and Markkenen/Bridges/Issac......on Markkenen, Kings could certainly use a 7ft sharp shooter....closest thing to a Peja Vu stepping through the gym door in this draft.

 

[kingdivac]

Why would the pelicans tank?

Well not tank maybe but lose against the hungry Nuggets and Blazers....

 

[kingdivac]

This team can never win or lose right lol

Indeed winning when you need the loss, and vice versa.

 

[kingdivac]

As it turns out, losing when other teams are trying to lose too isn't so easy.

I wonder about that.....tough to gauge....but the results may confirm.

 

[biltalent]

Having pretty much given up on my favorite prospect De'Aaron Fox (since he's probably going Top 5), I hope we can get Ntlinkina and Isaac. These last 4 games need to be used to position us for that possibility. A great PG prospect and SF prospect is what the long-suffering Kings fans deserve!!! For fans averse to tanking, think of it this way: us losing on purpose is not tanking, it is a strategic effort to reward the long-suffering fans!

Collison and Lawson need to be given the rest of the season off. Last nights team loses 19 out of 20 NBA games if the opponent is not trying even harder than us to lose. We can do even better (worse)! If we are in the game in the crunch time all the players having the worst games need to be put in. And playing players out of position should not be out of the realm of possibility either! I am talking Buddy at PG and Ben at PF!

This is how Coach Joerger needs to think about this: He is coaching partly for his longevity and next contract. If the team lands two cornerstone players this year, he's coaching a 45-50 win team in a couple of years and he's going to be positioning himself for a new 5 year 40 million contract. By contrast if he tries to win these next four games, the team could draft two duds and he's back in the D-League in 2020!!! Do the right thing for the fans and your kids college fund, Coach Joerger!

So who do you think takes Fox? I still have hopes he falls to us.

 

[Mass]

I posted this in the Kings-beat-the-Mavericks thread, but I think it's even more relevant in this thread:


Look at the top 3 draft picks for the last 7 years (below). In hindsight, only one of the three (on average) looks to be a justified top 3 pick. If you expand from the top 3 to the top 5, or to the top 10, the lesson is the same. Only about 1 in 3 high draft picks look justified with the benefit of hindsight. If you expand back beyond 2010, the same lesson is there, too. So the teams follow these prospects and (hopefully) make informed choices (draft picks). But the odds of a high pick being justified are not good! Doesn't mean it's a total crap shoot, but it does mean that there's a significant element of chance. In other words, I see no reason to assume that having a top 3 draft pick is significantly better than having a top 6 draft pick. And I see no reason to assume that having a top 6 draft pick is significantly better than having a top 9 draft pick. Yes, the chances are better, but not significantly better. I think you can significantly affect your odds if you allow uninformed people to influence the decision. Remember Jimmer? T-Rob? Unfortunately, the Kings have made their share of bad draft decisions. But that was then and this is now.


2016:

Ben Simmons, 76ers

Brandon Ingram, Lakers

Jaylen Brown, Celtics

Too early to tell if any of these guys should have been in the top 3.


2015:

Karl-Anthony Towns, Wolves

D'Angelo Russell, Lakers

Jahlil Okafor, 76ers

May be too early to tell, but right now it looks like only KAT should have been in the top 3.


2014:

Andrew Wiggins, Cavs (then to Wolves in the Kevin Love deal)

Jabari Parker, Bucks

Joel Embiid, 76ers

At this point, only 1 or 2 of the 3 should have been in the top 3 (depending on your optimism for Embiid's health).


2013:

Anthony Bennett, Cavs

Victor Oladipo, Magic (then to Thunder in the Serge Ibaka deal)

Otto Porter, Wizards

Oladipo and Porter are good players with fine upsides, but I'm not sure that any of these guys should have been in the top 3.


2012:

Anthony Davis, New Orleans

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bobcats/Hornets (then to ...)

Bradley Beal, Wizards

Only 1 of the 3 should have been in the top 3, although Beal's star is rising.


2011:

Kyrie Irving, Cavs

Derrick Williams, Wolves (who cares the journey from there)

Enes Kanter, Jazz (then to Thunder)

Only 1 of the 3 should have been in the top 3.


2010:

John Wall, Wizards

Evan Turner, 76ers (then to Pacers, Celtics, Blazers)

Derrick Favors, Nets (then to Jazz)

Only 1 of the 3 should have been in the top 3. Favors is not a bad player, but a top 3?

I think this is an interesting point, so I decided to go check since 2000 (not counting the last 3 drafts, it's too early to judge) how many all star players were selected in the top 3, then from 4 to 6, from 7 to 9 and from 10 to 12. These are the results:

2000
1-3: 1 All star player (Martin)
4-6: 0 ASP
7-9: 0 ASP
10-12: 0 ASP
Others: Magloire, Redd

2001
1-3: 2 ASP (Chandler, Gasol)
4-6: 0 ASP
7-9: 0 ASP
10-12: 1 ASP (J. Johnson)
Others: Randolph, Parker, Arenas, Okur

2002
1-3: 1 ASP (Yao Ming)
4-6: 0 ASP
7-9: 1 ASP (Stoudamire)
10-12: 1 ASP (C. Butler)
Others: Boozer

2003
1-3: 2 ASP (Lebron and Melo)
4-6: 3 ASP (Bosh, Wade, Kaman(...) )
7-9: 0 ASP
10-12: 0 ASP
Others: West, J. Howard, M. Williams, Korver

2004
1-3: 1 ASP (Howard)
4-6: 1 ASP (Devin Harris...)
7-9: 2 ASP (Deng and Iguodala)
10-12: 0 ASP
Others: Nelson

2005
1-3: 2 ASP (Bogut and Deron Williams)
4-6: 1 ASP (Paul)
7-9: 0 ASP
10-12: 1 ASP (Bynum)
Others: Granger, Lee

2006
1-3: 1 ASP (Aldridge)
4-6: 1 ASP (Roy)
7-9: 0 ASP
10-12: 0 ASP
Others: Rondo, Lowry, Millsap

2007
1-3: 2 ASP (Durant and Horford)
4-6: 0 ASP
7-9: 1 ASP (Noah)
10-12: 0 ASP
Others: Gasol

2008
1-3: 1 ASP (Rose)
4-6: 2 ASP (Westbrook and Love)
7-9: 0 ASP
10-12: 1 ASP (Lopez)
Others: Hibbert, Jordan

2009
1-3: 2 ASP (Griffin and Harden)
4-6: 0 ASP
7-9: 2 ASP (Curry and DeRozan)
10-12: 0 ASP
Others: Holiday, Teague

2010
1-3: 1 ASP (Wall)
4-6: 1 ASP (Cousins)
7-9: 1 ASP (Hayward)
10-12: 1 ASP (George)
Others: -

2011
1-3: 1 ASP (Irving)
4-6: 0 ASP
7-9: 1 ASP (Walker)
10-12: 1 ASP (Thompson)
Others: Leonard, Butler, Thomas

2012
1-3: 1 ASP (Davis)
4-6: 1 ASP (Lillard)
7-9: 1 ASP (Drummond)
10-12: 0 ASP
Others: Green

2013
1-3: 0 ASP
4-6: 0 ASP
7-9: 0 ASP
10-12: 0 ASP
Others: Antetoukounpo

So, this is the total:

Pick 1-3: 18 ASP on 42 picks (42,86%)
Pick 4-6: 10 ASP on 42 picks (23,81%)
Pick 7-9: 9 ASP on 42 picks (21,43%)
Pick 10-12: 6 ASP on 42 picks (14,29%)
All the other picks: 27 ASP on 663 picks (4,07%)

Of course it's an easy way to look at it, but if you are looking for a franchise player you are looking for all star level. It seems that picking between 4 and 9 doesn't change a lot. Here what you need is a real good eye for talent, and it's what the Kings have been missing for too many years.
This looks like it's going to be a deep draft, with a lot of talent available. We should be able to find a good player with our picks.

 

[LPKingsFan]

Nice work, Mass. DraftExpress has also run the numbers. While 4-9 may have similar odds for finding an all star, I think the odds of drafting a bust increase http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-draft-pick-expectations

As Suicide Kings mentioned, the funny thing about those diamonds in the rough that are drafted in the teens -- they were also available with the top picks! Teams just missed them. Does that make the picks in the teens more valuable? I don't think so.

 

[mac]

Nice work, Mass. DraftExpress has also run the numbers. While 4-9 may have similar odds for finding an all star, I think the odds of drafting a bust increase http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-draft-pick-expectations

As Suicide Kings mentioned, the funny thing about those diamonds in the rough that are drafted in the teens -- they were also available with the top picks! Teams just missed them. Does that make the picks in the teens more valuable? I don't think so.

The way I look at it it means that it's not the end of the world if your young guys win some games now. The experience and proper development they gain may be more significant than the difference between the 7th and 8th pick. Just because you get the 8th pick instead of say the 5th pick doesn't mean you're resigned to drafting a bust while #5 goes on to the HOF

 

[kingjatt]

Laker fans are all over their players and organization for winning the last two, its going to be interesting to see what happens friday, who wants the L more?

 

[Mass]

Nice work, Mass. DraftExpress has also run the numbers. While 4-9 may have similar odds for finding an all star, I think the odds of drafting a bust increase http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-draft-pick-expectations

As Suicide Kings mentioned, the funny thing about those diamonds in the rough that are drafted in the teens -- they were also available with the top picks! Teams just missed them. Does that make the picks in the teens more valuable? I don't think so.

That's a great link, I didn't know about it! Thank you for posting, I love stats and I'm enjoying this analysis!

 

[mac]

That's a great link, I didn't know about it! Thank you for posting, I love stats and I'm enjoying this analysis!

See according to this, we're better off picking at 8 than 6 or 7

 

[steelevt]

Everyone posting about players being picked later being all stars or whatever are forgetting the point of higher drafts picks. If you had a higher pick, that means you could have drafted any of those "later allstar" players as opposed to picking later limiting your options because the teams in front of you can draft those players first. We all know the draft is a crap shoot and hindsight is 20/20, so saying there were Allstars drafted after top 10 picks doesn't tell the whole story since some earlier picks were bad picks.

For example the 2010 draft. You can't say it doesn't matter if you were 7th or 10th since Greg monroe was 7th pick and Paul George was 10th and the later pick was better. The fact is if the pistons picked PG first then it does matter because your whole theory is flawed. What matters is choosing the right player and the higher your draft position the more options to choose a star.

 

[allrightythen]

I find myself caring less and less about where we draft. I've spent a fair amount of time looking into the potential draftees in the upcoming class and forming opinions, but in the end I just want the Kings to draft good players. I don't really care where in the draft they come. I'm a fan and not a GM and I think I'll stay in my lane. This isn't a criticism of anyone else as we all fan in our own way and that's cool. Maybe this is just a self-preservation tool since I'm not sure how much the GM matters with Vivek right now. He may change and become less controlling and truly hire good people to do their jobs, but at this point I don't have a lot of faith that he has reached that point and I'm not sure he's even moving that direction.

 

[kingjatt]

Everyone posting about players being picked later being all stars or whatever are forgetting the point of higher drafts picks. If you had a higher pick, that means you could have drafted any of those "later allstar" players as opposed to picking later limiting your options because the teams in front of you can draft those players first. We all know the draft is a crap shoot and hindsight is 20/20, so saying there were Allstars drafted after top 10 picks doesn't tell the whole story since some earlier picks were bad picks.

For example the 2010 draft. You can't say it doesn't matter if you were 7th or 10th since Greg monroe was 7th pick and Paul George was 10th and the later pick was better. The fact is if the pistons picked PG first then it does matter because your whole theory is flawed. What matters is choosing the right player and the higher your draft position the more options to choose a star.

Exactly, Even a .001% chance at a better pick means more than any win we have picked up since the all star break, this season was finished the day we shipped Cuz out. We have essentially been handicapping our own future by winning and playing vets, bottomline.

Trying to justify the impact of the wins on draft position is fine but the fact that they impact draft position negatively is undeniable.

I dont even know how much these wins have helped the young guys mentally. I assume they arent stupid and know these teams arent going full bore to beat them. The wins truely have accomplished nothing in my opinion. Doesnt sound rosey but thats the rules of the cba and you have to take advantage of them however you can, just the way the system is set up.

 

[Blob]

There is simply no way in hell Joerger will coach back in the D-League. He is one of the better NBA coaches going around and he will have no trouble finding a job in the NBA especially with the number of teams that turn over coaches every off-season.

It was a tongue in cheek comment. Joerger has done a great job with these guys post-trade and obviously his future is fairly secure. But Joerger should not coach to win these last 4 games. He needs to resist that instinct tough at it may be. It is in his own best interest and the teams best interest. We need a PG prospect that can be molded into Top 10 PG. He needs his next Mike Conley! This can be in my estimation Ntlinkina but that may mean sitting around 7th to 9th. If we win out and end up 10th or higher then we are looking at Bridges or the kid from Arizona or we are having to package assets to move up. It makes the situation more precarious. This coach needs to see the forest through the trees and help his GM get the guy(s) who can make rebuild legitimate not sputtering. There are two gaping holes in this roster at PG and SF and they can be filled with Isaac and Ntlinka, who also happen to possess star potential. Those guys are within grasp if we play it smart, i.e. lose!

 

[Kingster]

If picks in the teens were really more valuable than the top 3 then every single team in the league that tanks to get into the top 3 is stupid and every single team in the league that doesn't trade down from their top 3 pick to the teens is stupid. I don't think so!

 

[Blob]

Everyone posting about players being picked later being all stars or whatever are forgetting the point of higher drafts picks. If you had a higher pick, that means you could have drafted any of those "later allstar" players as opposed to picking later limiting your options because the teams in front of you can draft those players first. We all know the draft is a crap shoot and hindsight is 20/20, so saying there were Allstars drafted after top 10 picks doesn't tell the whole story since some earlier picks were bad picks.

For example the 2010 draft. You can't say it doesn't matter if you were 7th or 10th since Greg monroe was 7th pick and Paul George was 10th and the later pick was better. The fact is if the pistons picked PG first then it does matter because your whole theory is flawed. What matters is choosing the right player and the higher your draft position the more options to choose a star.

Exactly! The teams that landed stars with later picks are dependent on teams picking ahead of them bypassing the better player. It is another variable out of your control. The more uncontrollable variables the greater is the challenge to get it right.

 

[LPKingsFan]

Everyone posting about players being picked later being all stars or whatever are forgetting the point of higher drafts picks. If you had a higher pick, that means you could have drafted any of those "later allstar" players as opposed to picking later limiting your options because the teams in front of you can draft those players first. We all know the draft is a crap shoot and hindsight is 20/20, so saying there were Allstars drafted after top 10 picks doesn't tell the whole story since some earlier picks were bad picks.

For example the 2010 draft. You can't say it doesn't matter if you were 7th or 10th since Greg monroe was 7th pick and Paul George was 10th and the later pick was better. The fact is if the pistons picked PG first then it does matter because your whole theory is flawed. What matters is choosing the right player and the higher your draft position the more options to choose a star.

Yep. Or to make it even more simplified -- 100% of superstars were available with the first pick.

 

[VF21]

That's a great link, I didn't know about it! Thank you for posting, I love stats and I'm enjoying this analysis!

On a related note, perhaps an analysis of what TEAMS have consistently done the best in drafting future all-stars, regardless of draft position? I still maintain that where you draft is less important in the long run than how good a job your scouts have done in looking at all the possible options available to you when you do draft.