The art and agony of the tank (split from game thread)

Discussion in 'Kings Rap' started by New Era, Apr 1, 2017.

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  1. kingdivac

    kingdivac Well-Known Member

    I've mostly made peace with the idea that the Kings get 9/10.....(reserve the right to throw a fit if the lottery somehow bends over their results). From last year's draft which turned out what looks to be better than average - I'm all onboard (assuming they get both picks) to trade down for an extra player . If they can pull something like last year it'll be worth it. Interestingly I actually like the idea of trading down both picks for 4 players -- the old "more horses in the race idea". Like mutual funds or something.
  2. hrdboild

    hrdboild Well-Known Member

    Winning is the only measure that matters in this context. The Sixers have barely started to put the pieces together but Embiid, Saric, Simmons, Luwawu, and whoever they draft this year is a damn good pool of talent. Sure injuries could derail all that potential like they did in Portland but I'm certainly not rooting for that to happen. Embiid and Simmons are special players and I'd hate to see anyone go out like Greg Oden did. If they're a playoff team sooner than we are you'd have to say the strategy worked wouldn't you? And they were in the playoffs as recently as 2012. We've been heading back to the proverbial grindstone since 2006 so if our slow build were more effective than their all-out tank shouldn't we have some talent to show for it? The only guys on our roster worth getting excited about were draft in the last 2 years. What were we doing the rest of the time that was better than the Sixers "embarrassing mockery of the sport"? I stand by my earlier assertion that 10 years of hopeless losing is way way worse than a couple 10-15 loss seasons and a roster stacked with blue chippers, even if they are oft-injured blue chippers.

    I realize that I'm higher on Nerlens Noel's potential than pretty much anyone else at this point which skews my assessment of Dallas' talent level up but it's not hard to squint and see Dallas in the playoffs next year. They only need to improve by about 10 wins which they should do if Dirk can still play, Noel stays healthy all year, and they add a decent free agent which they seem to do every year. We're years away from reaching that level right now. And it still kills me that Seth Curry was entirely under our control and we gave him away for no reason. He ended up signing the exact contact I predicted he would get (2 years, $6 million total) in my off-season writeups and I wonder now if we make the playoffs this year just by doing everything else the same but keeping Seth Curry. He poured in 177 threes at a 42.5% clip for Dallas this year while DeMarcus was the most prolific three point shooter on our team this year (in only 55 games) making 95 of them at 35.4%. So from my point of view the only way you could argue that we're close to Dallas in talent right now is if Skal and Buddy both play like All-Stars all of next year which is very unlikely. Our role-players may add up to more meaningless wins over mediocre/tanking teams but they do not represent project-able talent in any long-term sense.

    Minnesota may just be inept, so I'll give them a partial pass. But being that inept with 2 first overall picks on your roster and a former Coach of the Year winner on the bench takes some doing. I don't like their new logo either so there. :p
  3. Mr. S£im Citrus

    Mr. S£im Citrus That's right, I said it! Staff Member Contributor

    We're not really saying the same thing: Dallas being top-heavy doesn't mean that they have "a lot" more talent. What it means is that it's easier for them to tank, by simply sitting the top guys; the Kings don't have top guys to sit.

    What are you asking us for? Ask the guy cutting the checks why he's not willing to just eat nine salaries. And, incidentally, I happen to be including Cauley-Stein and all the rookies in those nine C players so, if you don't think that any of them are going to be around when you finally become a winning team, you're even worse off than you think you are.

    In what sense? The Mavericks aren't a player away, or even three players away. They don't have a superstar to build around, nor do they have a particularly worthwhile young nucleus. Barnes, Matthews, Noel and Curry versus Labissière, Hield, Cauley-Stein and Richardson? That's a lateral move; at best, they're half a step ahead of you guys.
    VF21 likes this.
  4. Mr. S£im Citrus

    Mr. S£im Citrus That's right, I said it! Staff Member Contributor

    Let me tell you a story about the 2013-14 Cleveland Cavaliers...
  5. hrdboild

    hrdboild Well-Known Member

    Dallas has two players who already are who we hope our two best rookies will grow into. What else needs to be said? I've already stated the names of the guys I think we should keep. And they could have still been developed while sitting out fourth quarters for the last month. And I strongly disagree with the last part. Dallas makes the playoffs next year. We might win 30 games. That's my prediction.

    Wiggins/Karl Towns are already proven players. They aren't even in the same zipcode as Anthony Bennett who can't seem to hold down an end of the bench roster spot anywhere at this point and was even worse then.
  6. Mr. S£im Citrus

    Mr. S£im Citrus That's right, I said it! Staff Member Contributor

  7. Capt. Factorial

    Capt. Factorial Cantry Member Staff Member Contributor

    More likely they said, "OK guys, go out there and get us some wins!" while quietly believing that they would not actually win. And they were right, more or less. We were .421 before the trade, and as of right now we are .333 after it (with a decent chance for a loss in our last game). I think the kids have gelled a bit earlier than expected. Still, I doubt they have been encouraged to lose.
  8. kingjatt

    kingjatt Well-Known Member

    We really messed up this tank job.....the great draft class coming in just adds insult to injury. An executive with any type of plan or forward thinking should have tanked the whole year instead of trying another makeshift roster. Do these 29-30 wins really mean anything in the grand scheme of things? They mean about as much as all of the other 30 win seasons we have had.

    Don't really blame people for jumping ship, when posters on a message board have more of a clue than your teams front office its probably time to stop throwing your hard earned money into their pockets and investing yourself emotionally into such a garbage organization.
  9. Tetsujin

    Tetsujin The Game Thread Dude

    Are they? Barnes is good, I guess, but he seems to be Kevin Martin good and not actual star player good. Noel and WCS is a wash. Matthews is a shadow of the player he was pre-foot explosion and Seth Curry and Buddy are putting up similar numbers.

    In terms of a young core, neither group is going to blow your pants off but
    gives you a better chance at finding a lotto ticket cornerstone piece than
    Barnes (19.2 ppg in 35 minutes as the "star" of the Dallas Mavericks)
    Seth (entering his prime and now finding his way, which means putting up 13 ppg.)
    Dwight Powell
    Dorian Finney-Smith
    VF21 likes this.
  10. Tetsujin

    Tetsujin The Game Thread Dude

    "How do we get better?"
    "How do we tank?"
    "Uhhh, I don't know... Just do it!"
  11. kingdivac

    kingdivac Well-Known Member

    Oh yes, I completely am in lockstep with folks for not spending their hard-earned dollars on something which is not very entertaining (yet). Its over on the draft, time to move on. The wins vs Dallas and TimberWolves irked the $%^T outta me, but its sports.
  12. hrdboild

    hrdboild Well-Known Member

    I'm not even sure what we're arguing about at this point. Regardless of what you think about Dallas' future talent it's damn obvious if you've seen them play that they're all-out tanking. They even tried to put Tony Romo in a game this week. They've got D-league guys with career averages below 30% from the three point line firing up (and missing) ten triples a game. It's blatant. Whether the argument is that we can't tank or that we won't tank, does it really even matter? The point is we're actually in a position now where losing games would benefit us more than winning games and we either have no concept of how to make that happen or even worse lack the self-awareness to realize that it's even a thing. There's just no comprehending the depths of our incompetence. I would buy that our talent is gelling faster than expected if more than half these players are still on the roster in two years. They won't be. The rookies and second year players will probably still be here and everyone else save Temple and maybe Tolliver/Koufos will be gone. Ben McLemore winning games for us so he can become the next in a long line of top 10 picks we lose for nothing doesn't help us build for the future. Nobody in the league knows what Sacramento is doing because nothing we're doing makes any sense. I don't buy the "building a culture, learning how to win" soundbites. They're meaningless. Every time in the league says this kindof junk at their pressers even the ones that are blatantly tanking. I don't listen to anything these people say anymore. They have to earn my trust back at this point.
    kingjatt and fansinceday1 like this.
  13. kingdivac

    kingdivac Well-Known Member

    Its over - the Kings screwed themselves in sequencing some but managed to likely secure 2 picks. The more I think about, I want a full trade-down for 4 players late teens to 20s. It's time to go mining. Let the players battle royal it out for 12 roster spots during Training Camp.
  14. Tetsujin

    Tetsujin The Game Thread Dude

    Uhhhhhhh, are we just leaving the last three spots open or something?
  15. Mr. S£im Citrus

    Mr. S£im Citrus That's right, I said it! Staff Member Contributor

    Whom would those two guys be?

    Well, now you're just moving the goalposts... I don't know how much more "proven" Wiggins and/or Towns are than Irving was, but whatever. Alright, can I interest you in the 1997-98 Philadelphia 76ers?
  16. Tetsujin

    Tetsujin The Game Thread Dude

    Holy poo! Tom Chambers played a game for the Sixers in 97-98!
  17. fansinceday1

    fansinceday1 Well-Known Member

    dallas is ahead of us just in terms of their FO. From what Ive read they are on the same page as their owner and they have an agreed direction they are going in.

    Our front office? one knows which direction vivek will want to head in next year let alone 4 months from now.

    Personally id take dallas' front office over ours every day of the week.
    kingjatt likes this.
  18. hrdboild

    hrdboild Well-Known Member

    Harrison Barnes is a 20ppg scorer who also gets about 5 rebounds, plays solid if unspectacular defense, and shoots good percentages from the field. Isn't that basically the best-case scenario realistic projection for Buddy Hield? Dirk is the prototype for the stretch 4 scoring big man that Skal Labissiere hopes to develop into but you're probably going to argue that Dirk is washed up. Which is fine, but he's still a hall of fame level talent who's playing at a diminished but still effective pace. His PER this season was still better than anyone on our team besides DeMarcus. And I'd add to that that Nerlens Noel has already proven to be a better defender than anyone on our roster.

    The point was we're hoping to get one player as good as Towns or Wiggins in this draft and they already have two. Actually three because Kris Dunn is probably a better prospect than anyone on our roster too. Semantically speaking maybe there are other teams that fit the bill. But that Cleveland team you mentioned went to the Finals and lost the following year then won a championship the year after that. They traded out one first overall pick (Wiggins) for a different one (Lebron) but you can't say they get where they are without top of the draft talent, even if their chief achievement has been sole NBA ownership of the state where the best player of this generation grew up. And that Sixers team you mentioned went to the Semifinals and lost the following year and lost in the Finals to the Shaq/Kobe Lakers just 3 years later. If past history is any indication Minnesota will be in the playoffs next season and competing for a championship within 5 years just by developing the guys they already have so my self-righteous indignation about letting them slip ahead of us in the draft is justified.
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  19. Mr. S£im Citrus

    Mr. S£im Citrus That's right, I said it! Staff Member Contributor

    I wouldn't argue that Nowitzki is "washed up," but he's way past the point of his career where he can be the best player on a title contender. I would argue that he's past the point where he can even be the second-best player on a title contender. He's at the "I can still get you eighteen; just don't ask me to win you no games" point of his career. You have a much higher opinion of Barnes and Noel than I do... I'm not really going to waste my time with Noel, but I'm kind of triggered by Barnes. Your affinity for him is largely unsupported: his scoring increase has been consistent with any player in the league, whose usage rate gets increased by 67 percent. His rebounding and assist rates have actually gone down since going to Dallas, as has his scoring efficiency. Also, unlike the young players on the Kings, I feel pretty confident that Barnes has peaked. The only thing that you can say for sure is that Barnes is the better player than anyone on the Kings right now, but if Nowitzki does an about face and retires in the offseason, Barnes isn't leading Dallas to a record that's any better than what the Kings will have next year. I expect both Hield and Labissière to end up as better players than Barnes, and that says more about what I think of Barnes than it does of what I think of either of those guys.
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  20. hrdboild

    hrdboild Well-Known Member

    It's a curious phenomena to me that we get a kid here who puts up a 30 point game one time (against that implacable Phoenix front line) and he's already considered a better talent than a first ballot hall-of-famer at the tail end of his career or a guy who shoots below 40% from the field for 57 games then gets hot for 6 weeks is probably going to outperform one of the better young forwards in the league over the rest of his career. Harrison Barnes is a year and a half older than Buddy Hield. What rational reason do you have for feeling pretty confident that he's peaked already while Buddy Hield is only going to keep getting better? I understand that most fans have a tendency to overrate their favorite team's players but this fanbase in particular takes it to a whole other level. I like Buddy and Skal and they both look like they have a lot of potential but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Neither one is a sure-thing either. The sample size we have right now of them playing well is only about 6 weeks long and involves some very questionable competition. I'd easily take Barnes/Noel straight up for Buddy/Skal and feel pretty confident that I come out ahead in the long-run more often than not.
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  21. kingjatt

    kingjatt Well-Known Member

    Bottom line Its just maddening that a winning playoff team like dallas that has beaten us at winning throughout the years can come in and beat us at losing too! That is unacceptable! If they and the lakers/suns/sixers can be SMART and exploit the system then why couldn't we? We certainly deserve better draft position than anyone else in the lotto based on the last decade yet we can't even get that right.


    Tank properly next year please!
  22. Jimbob

    Jimbob Well-Known Member

    All 3, Kings , Dallas, and Wolves should lose tonight. So its a coin flip with Dallas for the 8th or 9th spot. That pisses me off, Dallas should not be rewarded with the coin flip opportunity considering how they played the last month.
    The Wolves, and Thibs I sure hope can pull a win to make it a 3 way tie, but its not likely. They are masterful at losing by 1 point despite playing their best players. Missing LaVine has hurt them as Rubio and and Dunn have done little putting points on the board.
  23. parker

    parker Well-Known Member

    Dallas will be most likely be tied with the Kings for the 8th position. They have only been tanking the last couple of weeks. Before the loss to the Pelicans at the end of March, they were fighting for the 8th seed.
  24. Larry David

    Larry David Well-Known Member

    Dallas controls their first round picks, is run by competent people, and can more easily sign impact free agents. It seems very reasonable that Dallas could be among the long list of NBA teams that fell down, came up with a coherent plan, and returned to the playoffs while the Kings muddled along for a decade and a half.
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  25. Mr. S£im Citrus

    Mr. S£im Citrus That's right, I said it! Staff Member Contributor

    Is that what you got out of what I typed? o_O

    I question the veracity of the notion that Harrison Barnes is one of the better young forwards in the league. And, if it turns out that he is, being as good as Harrison Barnes is hardly an unattainable goal. Harrison Barnes is one of the better young forwards in the league in the same way that Corey Maggette was once one of the better young forwards in the league: to the extent that it might be true, that's not saying much, and that's a pretty low bar, besides. It's certainly not the sort of bar where you look at Buddy Hield and think, "There ain't no way he's ever going to be that good!"
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  26. VF21

    VF21 #KingsFansForever Staff Member Contributor

    Seriously? If this freaking franchise tanks next year, I doubt if I'll ever step foot in G1C again.
  27. kingjatt

    kingjatt Well-Known Member

    I would put it at a 95% probability that we do not make the playoffs next year even if we go all out for it. Most all of our roster will be developing and we just do not have the talent to cut the top 8 in the west yet. Rookies just do not light the league on fire anymore, this draft is PG heavy and PGs take the longest to develop.

    Realistically we will not have the talent level to leap frog into the playoffs. I hope management will be competent enough to see this before hand and do this tank thing from the start or at least way earlier on.

    So if we can safely assume that playoffs are a no go next year, can we please not win 30 games and shoot ourselves in the foot by landing another 8-10 pick after yet another miserable year? I hope Vlade sees this realistically and isnt buying Grants Skal, Buddy, Papa hype but I dont assume anything with this organization anymore.

    Also not having any picks in 2019 looms large in all of this, IMO that is the year Vlade is going to load up for. I just hope he does not sacrafice any more future assets for the sake of saving his job.

    My opinion, screw the playoffs for now, we need to establish a talent base with some potential all star level prospects before we can even dream playoffs.
  28. hrdboild

    hrdboild Well-Known Member

    Sorry, that's just the way I think. I try not to put words in other people's mouths, but I'm also guilty of replying to the implications I read into them not the actual words. You're talking about Nowitzki in the context of a title contender and all I've said to this point is "Dallas looks like a playoff team next year". You're talking about how you don't get why I would like Barnes or Noel as key pieces to build around (you're not even going to "waste your time" typing a few words about Noel -- that's pretty strongly implied disdain is it not?) while simultaneously talking about the bright futures of Skal and Buddy and I'm just thinking to myself "here we go again". Somehow in Kings land every unproven youngster on another team is just an unproven youngster (and believe me, I've heard all sorts of arguments why I'm crazy for wanting to trade for anyone else's unproven youngsters when all we really want here are stars dammit, established stars) yet our unproven youngsters quickly morph into something more-- they're centerpiece players in the making. You didn't actually say that Skal will be as good as Dirk but there was a whiff of it in the air of what you posted. In the dismissive way you treated Nowitzki's status as third-banana at this point (which I think is probably a realistic ceiling for Skal) or the way that you laugh off any notions that Noel or Barnes might actually be talented players and my brain immediately jumps to "we've been here before..." territory. Certainly Buddy Hield could achieve borderline All-Star territory but he ain't there yet. And there's something to be said for actual production over projected "upside" potential. For all we know Buddy could end up being the Corey Maggette in this scenario. We'll just have to wait and see.
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  29. Kingz19

    Kingz19 Well-Known Member

    damn, Memphis playing everybody and Dallas should be flagged by the league for throwing games.
  30. Jimbob

    Jimbob Well-Known Member

    I agree, Silver has said hes going to come down on teams for resting players, no better team to make an example of than Dallas. No coin toss if they tie Sacramento would be a good place to start.
    As someone said in a previous post, this BS does not only effect lottery teams, it also effects playoff seedings.
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