Sorting out the pick situation (split from game thread)

Discussion in 'Kings Rap' started by Kingz19, Apr 12, 2017.

  1. Kingz19

    Kingz19 New Member

    Well. We got 8 barring shenanigans...looks like New Orleans will win
  2. Blob

    Blob Well-Known Member

    Blazers lose. And just like that the Kings have a 72% chance to pick 8th and 87% chance to pick 10th.
  3. SLAB

    SLAB Well-Known Member

    If 10, do we lose it?
  4. andjel

    andjel Well-Known Member

    82% to pick 8th or better
    lwc likes this.
  5. SLAB

    SLAB Well-Known Member

    I'm still so confused about our pick situation.

    Earlier in this thread someone said there's 4% chance we lose NOLA's pick and 0.1% chance we lose our protected one.

    All I need to know, is that true? I don't care about the number we might pick. That's up to the stupid ping-pong balls. I just want to know we have a pretty good shot of keeping both picks.
  6. Blob

    Blob Well-Known Member

    No. The Pelicans secured the 10th worst record by winning tonight. There's a 87% chance that pick is #10 (ours), 9% that pick is #11 (ours) and 4% of Top 3 (theirs).

    The biggest news between now and lottery May 16 will be whether Bridges declares. Whether or not we are interested, he's projected to go around #10. If nothing else it will increase the trade value if he declares.
    lwc and SLAB like this.
  7. andjel

    andjel Well-Known Member

    We lose NO pick if they win top 3 lottery .... chances 4%
    We lose our pick if 3 teams leap frog us .... chances practically 0 (less than 0.01%)
    SLAB likes this.
  8. Blob

    Blob Well-Known Member

    I am not sure how he calculated 0.1%. I think that's wrong. But there's a 100% chance we keep our pick. :) There's still a 4% chance the Pelicans jump to Top 3.
    SLAB likes this.
  9. SLAB

    SLAB Well-Known Member

    Okay, that's what I needed to know! That post a few posts up threw me off.
  10. SLAB

    SLAB Well-Known Member

    So, what's everyone's money on the stupid lottery balls bouncing the worst way imaginable?

    Imagine the chaos. We win lottery. Pels get number 2, and Sixers get 14. :p
  11. Blob

    Blob Well-Known Member

    OK, I see now. I stand corrected. The best odds three teams jump us (and push us to 11th pick thereby conveying to Bulls) would be 0.057 (9th worst Top 3 odds) * 0.04 (10th) * 0.029 (11th) = 0.000066 or 0.0066% In this case we would lose our pick and the Pelicans pick. But I think I like our odds. ;)
    lwc and SLAB like this.
  12. Blob

    Blob Well-Known Member

    Here's some more odds. If not interested in nitty gritty, all you need to know is odds we keep both picks and they are between 8 and 11 are 85.5%. Here is more of a breakdown:

    Two Picks:
    Odds we pick 8th and 10th >> 63%
    Odds we pick 9th and 10th >> 14.6%
    Odds we pick 8th and 11th >> 6.4%
    Odds we pick 9th and 11th >> 1.5%
    Odds we move up (possible swap) and 10th >> 8.7% (best case scenario)
    Odds we move up (possible swap) and 11th >> 1%
    One Pick:
    Odds NOP move up and 8th >> 2.9%
    Odds NOP move up and 9th >> 0.7%
    No Picks
    Teams 9, 10 (NOP) and 11 move Top 3: >> 0.001%
    =============================
    Total = 98.8%

    I did not include the 0.8% chance our pick is 10th (we keep) and the 0.2% odds the NOP is 12th (we keep). This is the other 1%. That is is 99.8%. Don't ask me where the other 0.2% went. ;)


    Also:
    SAC pick: 89.2% chance of 8th or 9th.
    SAC pick: 10% chance of move up and swap (?)
    NOP pick: 95.9% chance of 10th or 11th (ours)
    NOP pick: 4% chance of move up and lose (theirs)
    Last edited: Apr 12, 2017
  13. VF21

    VF21 #KingsFansForever Staff Member Contributor

    MOD NOTE: I split this from the Clippers game thread and closed the tanking thread since it's now a done deal. Our fate is in the bouncing of the ping pong balls.
  14. Capt. Factorial

    Capt. Factorial Cantry Member Staff Member Contributor

    I'm not sure where/how you got your numbers, but my calculations don't match yours. To wit:

    Count on this:
    8 & 10: 72.5%

    These could reasonably happen:
    9 & 11: 8.1%
    9 & 10: 5.3%
    5 & 10: 3.5%
    9 only: 3.4%
    6 & 10: 3.1%
    3 & 10: 1.7%

    These are pretty long shots:
    2 & 10: 0.7%
    6 & 11: 0.4%
    10 only: 0.3%
    10 & 11: 0.3%
    7 & 10: 0.3%
    10 & 12: 0.2%
    6 only: 0.2%
    7 & 11: 0.1%

    Don't worry about it:
    7 only: 0.05%
    3 & 11: 0.04%
    2 & 11: 0.02%
    3 only: 0.02%
    2 only: 0.01%

    So you're saying there's a chance!:
    No Picks: 0.005%
    7 & 12: 0.004%
    12 only: 0.003%
    13 only: 0.0007%

    Some summary stuff:
    Chance we have two picks: 96%
    Chance we have one pick: 4%
    Chance we have no picks: 0.005%
    Chance we have a top-three pick: 2.5%

    Chance we lose the Pelicans' pick: 4%
    Chance we lose our own pick: 0.008%

    Chance we move up and swap: 10%
    Chance we do better than 8 & 10: 9.8% (but it kind of depends on how you define "better"...e.g., is 7 & 11 better than 8 & 10?)
    Odds we keep both picks and they are between 8-11: 86.2%
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2017
  15. bajaden

    bajaden Well-Known Member

    I think I need a drink......:rolleyes:
  16. LPKingsFan

    LPKingsFan Well-Known Member

    Some sites like tankathon show the Kings having a 10% chance of moving up to the top 3 - but that fails to account for the potential pick swap, if Sac jumps up but Philly does not. Hence the odds are lower, as Capt shows. Do I have that right?

    Unfortunately, no chance of moving up with the Pelicans pick. Ugh.
    lwc likes this.
  17. jcwkings

    jcwkings Well-Known Member

    With the Sixers at 4th its pretty much certain if we somehow move up and have to swap we will still be getting a better pick than 8th or 9th. Sixers are likely to be 4-6.
    VF21 likes this.
  18. Kingster

    Kingster Well-Known Member

    Buck up, man! If you want to go on a binge, just wait and see the calculations that Capt. Factorial did to arrive at those conclusions!:)
  19. gunks

    gunks Well-Known Member

    Isn't everyone saying the draft is 11 players deep anyhow? With a very deep "tier 2" of 8 players or so?

    Perhaps with some wheeling and dealing, Vlade can still nab us one of Fox or Isaac (who draft express has us nabbing at pick 8 anyhow). I actually expect him to try to get us more picks, if anything.

    It would have been nice to pick at 5 and 7, or whatever we were two weeks ago. But we'll still get some good players.

    I actually trust Vlade when it comes to talent evaluation. Just keep Vivek the hell away from the war room.
  20. andjel

    andjel Well-Known Member

    One of those 11 (Miles Bridges) seems to be withdrawing from the draft, but we are still in a good position (as long as Pels do not go up).
  21. kingdivac

    kingdivac Active Member

    Have been saying this for a little while - get more horses in the race - don't mind going from 2 to 4 players, and letting them battle royal it for roster spots.
  22. hrdboild

    hrdboild Well-Known Member

    If Capt. Factorial says it, you can pretty much take it to the bank. Those are the odds. Dallas pulling through with that last win granting us sole ownership of the 8 seed was a pleasant surprise. It makes losing our pick to Chicago very unlikely.
  23. Section 101

    Section 101 Well-Known Member

    So your saying there is a chance!
  24. bajaden

    bajaden Well-Known Member

    Oh, believe me, I know... We've had a few conversations at summer league that I'm still trying to figure out what he said. :confused:
  25. The Effort Police

    The Effort Police Active Member

    It's eleven deep if you think Miles Bridges is declaring (he isn't) and you like Markkanen (I don't). In my case, it's nine deep so that leaves us with the familiar problem of hoping someone ahead of us reaches and our guys aren't being the ones reaching. But with Vivek in charge, prepare for Luke Kennard.

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