Ongoing draft/lottery discussion [OPEN SPOILERS]

Which draft lottery slot will King's get this evening?


  • Total voters
    54
  • Poll closed .

hrdboild

Hall of Famer
#1
After months of speculation and wishful thinking, we'll finally know by this afternoon where we'll be picking in the 2015 NBA draft.

These are the spots available to us and the relevant odds:

1st overall........6.3%
2nd overall......7.1%
3rd overall.......8.1%
6th overall.....43.9%
7th overall.....30.5%
8th overall......4.0%
9th overall.......0.1%

What we want to see here are envelopes 6-9 opened up without a Kings logo inside of them. That would mean our numbers were selected and we won a top 3 pick. I've never seen it happen, but hope springs eternal! While we're waiting, I recommend checking out the draft analysis topics created by Capt. Factorial, bajaden, Gilles, Dime Dropper, and Uncia03 if you haven't seen them already.

Part 1 (Prospects projected in 1-4 range)

Part 2 (Prospects projected in 5-10 range)

Most likely we'll be targeting one of the players mentioned there (Myles Turner, Devin Booker, and Kelly Oubre could also be in the mix) and/or looking to trade the pick. I don't know about you, but I'm excited!

NOTE: The draft lottery will be televised at 5:30pm PST on ESPN.
 
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#2
Getting excited, but trying to protect myself from the "oh so this means we're picking 9th" thoughts.

Nervous to see where we land tonight, and hopefully this is the last time we do this for a long time.
 
#8
I want Russell, so best case scenario we win the lottery, trade down to 3rd come away with Russell and other assetts. Although I would be fine with Towns as a twin tower guy next to Cousins. Most likely though we either go with WCS at 6 or 7 or trade the pick(probably in a Lawson deal).
 

CruzDude

Senior Member sharing a brew with bajaden
#10
Just for fun and something to do before the draft lottery at 5:30, let's guess which slot the Kings will get this new Karl's year. Poll closes at 5:30 pm
 
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Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#11
This is the Kings you are talking about, I wouldn't rule out dropping to 8th or 9th!
9th is so super-unlikely that I wouldn't even stress over that. Besides, if we pick 9th, there will be at least 3 other teams (Wolves, Knicks, Magic) who will be crying as hard as we are and one (Lakers!) who will have lost their pick entirely and will therefore be crying harder. The Sixers would be crying, too, if it didn't mean that they had picked up the Lakers' pick in exchange for falling three spots.

I'm pretty zen about this one for the first time in a while. We're most likely going to pick 6th or 7th where WCS is kind of right in our wheelhouse if all current indications are correct. And I feel like I have a really good idea of what kind of a player WCS is going to be, and I think he'd be a big part of our team. Or, we jump up and get a shot at somebody like Towns or Russell, guys who are less sure things but have incredible ceilings. Wherever we pick, we're going to get a good player, we've got Cousins and Gay and we've got George Karl, so we just need to put some faith in Vlade Divac bringing in some complementary pieces and smoothing over the egos over the summer. A .500+ record next season is well in sight. I'm not going to stress out.
 

gunks

Hall of Famer
#13
We will be picking 7th... I am already prepared for that lol.
Yup. That should land us WCS though, so picking 7th wont be the end of the world. Although he's been getting a lot of pre draft hype. It would be crazy, but I wouldnt be surprised to see him go top 5.

If we get the first pick, I solemnly swear off of all of my vices (video game vice pending completion of Mass Effect 3). If we get the first pick and Vlade screws up on draft night, I solemnly swear to relapse into all of said vices with a renewed vigor.
 
#23
For some reason I keep thinking the Kings will end up with the #2 pick although reflexively I voted #7 in the poll. I'm just too used to the Kings moving down a slot I guess.

21.5% chance of picking in the top 3
78.5% chance of picking 6th, 7th or 8th

Not great odds for a top 3 pick but despite my understanding of statistics and probability I still maintain that the Kings are "due".

Still, this is one draft where I'm not really going to be upset if the Kings don't move up. Willie Cauley-Stein seems tailor made for the Kings and I struggle to see another team ahead of Sacramento drafting him even if the Kings get bumped down to #7. But yeah, a little lottery magic would be pretty sweet.
 
#24
Yup. That should land us WCS though, so picking 7th wont be the end of the world. Although he's been getting a lot of pre draft hype. It would be crazy, but I wouldnt be surprised to see him go top 5.

If we get the first pick, I solemnly swear off of all of my vices (video game vice pending completion of Mass Effect 3). If we get the first pick and Vlade screws up on draft night, I solemnly swear to relapse into all of said vices with a renewed vigor.

Same.. I don't see WCS going much higher when you have younger players. 1-5 is where you take flyers.
 
#25
For some reason I keep thinking the Kings will end up with the #2 pick although reflexively I voted #7 in the poll. I'm just too used to the Kings moving down a slot I guess.

21.5% chance of picking in the top 3
78.5% chance of picking 6th, 7th or 8th

Not great odds for a top 3 pick but despite my understanding of statistics and probability I still maintain that the Kings are "due".

Still, this is one draft where I'm not really going to be upset if the Kings don't move up. Willie Cauley-Stein seems tailor made for the Kings and I struggle to see another team ahead of Sacramento drafting him even if the Kings get bumped down to #7. But yeah, a little lottery magic would be pretty sweet.

Would you still take WCS if we had the 3rd pick? I would totally consider it depending on who went first and second. It's most likely going to be Okafor and Towns so I would consider WCS at 3. Unless Russell or Mudiay blow us away in workouts.
 
#26
I love WCS and he's by far my first choice at 6 or 7. I just don't think I could justify taking him over Russell or Mudiay, though. Both those guys have legit star potential. It might not be our biggest need, but we do still need a Robin for our Batman.

At 6 though, I'm taking WCS and running.
 
#29
Would you still take WCS if we had the 3rd pick? I would totally consider it depending on who went first and second. It's most likely going to be Okafor and Towns so I would consider WCS at 3. Unless Russell or Mudiay blow us away in workouts.
With the third pick? Probably not.

But at the very least the third pick would give the Kings a chance to trade down and nab WCS while adding another role player and/or shedding a contract.

To me the ideal scenario might be something like this:

The T'Wolves get the #1 pick, the Kings get #2 and a late lottery team (Pacers, Thunder, Jazz, Suns) jump up to #3.

Why is this ideal?

1. The Kings finally jump up into the top 3.
2. The Lakers pick gets pushed to #6 so they'd lose it to Philly.
3. Miami's pick would fall to #11 and they'd lose it to Philly.
4. As a bonus the Knicks (and Phil Jackson and Derek Fisher) slide to #4 and likely lose out on Towns, Okafor and Russell

This isn't far off from Philadelphia's dream scenario except for the fact that their own pick is now #5 giving them the 5th, 6th, and 11th picks in the draft.

Imagining that Towns goes #1 the Kings are left to decide whether to choose between Russell or Okafor (or Mudiay or Winslow etc) or trade down. A wonderful haul would be to deal the #2 pick to the Sixers for the #6 pick (assuming WCS is on the board) and the number #11 pick while dumping Landry on Philly.

That would give the Kings Cauley-Stein, the #11 pick (Kaminsky? Payne? Johnson?) while also opening up cap room to improve the bench.

Would the Sixers do it? Who cares, it's MY ideal scenario. But in reality they might. Hinkie is huge on optionality but at a certain point you have to capitalize on all that flexibility and make a move that will push the franchise forward. Since they have to get to the cap floor anyway Landry's contract isn't the albatross it would be to other teams (and the season after next he's an ending contract anyway) and they'd still have the #2 and #5 picks along with loads of caproom, Noel, Embiid and the rights to Saric. Russell, Noel, Embiid, and Winslow (or Porzingis) is a nice core with plenty more picks to add to it.

For the Kings it means not only WCS but another rookie in a relatively strong draft as well as an extra $6,750,000 for Vlade & co to upgrade the bench.

Dream, the impossible dream . . .