[Game] Kings vs Clippers, Friday 6 Jan 2017, 22:30 ET / 19:30 PT

Discussion in 'Kings Rap' started by Ron, Jan 6, 2017.

  1. Blob

    Blob Well-Known Member

    Boogie's not getting traded because (1) he likes it here (2) he can get $80M more up front on a 5 year deal (3) the viral video vs Furillo didn't help his trade value.
  2. Blob

    Blob Well-Known Member

    Are you suggesting a return to short shorts of the 80s to bring sexy back ;)
  3. 206Fan

    206Fan Well-Known Member

    How much is money worth if the team you're playing with has been dysfunctional throughout your entire career, and can't put a decent roster around you though?

    Cousins is already going to be set for life no matter how much more money he gets up front.. If KD left arguably the 3rd best team in the entire NBA to join the NBA's #1 team.. what's stopping Cousins from leaving a bottom feeding team to join a semi-decent franchise?
  4. Kingsfan23

    Kingsfan23 Well-Known Member

    Gay is having less of an impact on winning as time goes on
    Kingster and New Era like this.
  5. Joshoua

    Joshoua Well-Known Member

    Warriors blew a 24 point lead
  6. Blob

    Blob Well-Known Member

    That's a fair point, but it is a comfort and ego thing with Boogie, whose ego precedes him into every room and arena he enters. You are right the money at these levels is mostly irrelevant. He can buy anything he wants....but I think for the sake of unspoken bragging rights it is important to him to make MORE than Antony Davis, Gasol, Whiteside, Drummond, and pretty much everyone except guys like LeBron and Curry and Harden. He sees himself as that level of player and that is substantiated through the size of his contract in lieu of wins and playoff appearances.
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2017
  7. Blob

    Blob Well-Known Member

    Crunch time is his kryptonite.
    New Era likes this.
  8. hrdboild

    hrdboild Well-Known Member

    I wouldn't be opposed. :) Ron Ron made them look good after all. If the shorts have to get shorter to bring back the bump and thump, then that's just the way it's got to be. 30 small balling dandy teams and nobody left to back down a guard and loft a chip shot over their head is just a sad state of affairs. Especially when every team defense is a switching bonanza of flailing arms and feet now. Where's Bonzi? I bet he could still get it done against these kids who have never even been asked to defend a post-up player in their lives.
    Blob likes this.
  9. Bricklayer

    Bricklayer Don't Make Me Use The Bat Staff Member Contributor

    Kawhi has a NEGATIVE +/-.

    You want to talk impact? Which was indeed this evening's inaccurate critique? The Spurs get better when Kawhi's talent is off the floor.
  10. mac

    mac Well-Known Member

    Lol. Not sure if serious.
  11. Bricklayer

    Bricklayer Don't Make Me Use The Bat Staff Member Contributor

    Dead serious. Know your stuff before you reflexively question things.

    The Spurs are a Net NEGATIVE -1.0 with Kawhi on/off. And the plot thickens from there, because the reason they are a -1.0 with him on/off? Its not his beta offensive mentality, its because they get killed on DEFENSE when he is on the floor. They are running a net -9.9 (as in much greater negative than Belinelli ran with us last year) with Kawhi on the floor vs. off.

    There is even a whole school of conspiracy theories/excuses about why this is so put out by Spurs fans. Apparently teams are running Kawhi off into the corner and playing 4 on 4 vs. everybody else or some such, and Pop is too dumb to see that.
  12. Getting outscored 32-12 in the 2nd quarter and, for whatever reason, not electing to go for the 2 for 1 to end the game tells me this team is definitely NOT ready for the playoffs this year. I'd almost rather see us miss the playoffs and improve the roster with better basketball IQ than take the current roster with a mediocre basketball IQ in to the first round, where either the Warriors, or Spurs (sorry, Rockets fans, you're not at their level yet) will make us look worse than a bunch of elementary school kids playing basketball for the very first time. Actually, at times, I do wish we had a bunch of 6 - 8 year old kids on the floor over whatever the heck had been on the floor at that time.

    Save the embarrassment of getting spanked in front of a national audience, and just show up after game 82 when we're ready to play like real men on a consistent basis.
  13. gunks

    gunks Well-Known Member

    What a scrub. I guess we can throw The Spurs a bone and give them Rudy for Kawhi. Heck, why not add Ben to the mix so we aren't ripping them off too badly?
  14. peacelate

    peacelate Well-Known Member

    Kawhi Leonard is a superstar. There's no argument really.

    Leonard is 12th in the league in real-plus minus. Cousins is 11th.

    I find it absurd and incredulous to conclude a 3x all-nba defensive and 2x DPOY hurts his team on defense based on 34 freakn games.
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2017
    Kingster, LoungeLizard, Blob and 3 others like this.
  15. SacTownKid

    SacTownKid Well-Known Member

    The answer is pick and roll. Really the only way to defend these days and be as close to solid as you can get is to play with enough size and athletic ability to be able to switch most screens. The lack of hand checking and other physically oriented defense has effectively taken away most players ability to provide resistance before players go into the screen. As a result teams that don't switch or play the middle in a semi-zone like the Warriors, who should get a 3 second call almost every defensive possession by the way, have to resort to help defense like the Kings. It's a style that worked at one time, that time is not now and not with this team it would appear.
    KingsFanGER likes this.
  16. jcwkings

    jcwkings Well-Known Member

    The only players i take over Khawai are Lebron and Durant.
    mac likes this.
  17. Blob

    Blob Well-Known Member

    You have a curious impulse to try to diminish great players like Kawhi and Anthony Davis to try to prop up Boogie. It's unnecessary and a bad look. Plus your stats are wrong. Or attempt to fit them into preconceived narrative is wrong.

    Like Peace said, Kawhi is 12th in RPM. Boogie is 11th. Here is the link. It is fair conclusion based on this stat the value that Kawhi brings to his team is close approximation to value Boogie brings to his team.

    Then there is offensive and defensive rating. The important thing to look at is net. Here is net point differential per 100 possessions scored and allowed over his six seasons for Kawhi:
    • +18
    • +15
    • +17
    • +17
    • +25
    • +19
    This is incredible value and spectacular performance by Kawhi that reflects more than being part of best organization in NBA. Let's focus on this year so I can disprove your wild assertions. Kawhi has offensive rating (ORtg) of 121 and defensive rating (DRtg) of 102 for a +19. This is estimated points per 100 possessions scored and allowed when Kawhi is on the floor.

    As a team the Spurs are 110.7 ORtg and 101.3 DRtg for a differential of 9.4. They are kicking butt with a 29-7 record. But they kick more butt by almost 10 points per 100 possessions with Kawhi. (19 - 9.4 = +9.6)

    Now to your point: The Spurs defensive rating is 101.3. With Kawhi it is 102 (-0.7). But it only takes a hint of intuition and logic to conclude why this is so. Kawhi checks the best offensive player for the 33 MPG, usually part of the best five the opponent has to offer. For the 15 MPG he is off the floor, it coincides with lesser skilled opponents, second units and garbage time. The -0.7 difference in DRtg is buried in this.

    But this differential is inconsequential relative to the net differential when Kawhi plays. Like I said Kawhi is +19 per 100 possessions while as a team the Spurs are +9.4. By contrast, Boogie is +5 (110 - 105) in offensive and defensive rating while his team is -4 (104.2 - 108) for a net of + 8.8 (5 - (-3.8)) So both guys are +9 points per 100 possessions relative to their respective teams. This is reflected in their respective RPM (real plus minus) of 11th and 12th since these numbers are derived similarly.

    I won't address the beta mentality comment than to say Kawhi is 13th in scoring with 24 PPG and 61% TS on a team with an offensive not designed to be carried by one player. He also has a 1.6 assist to turnover. If Boogie was 61% TS and 1.6 in assists to turnovers, the team would be 5 games over .500 and he would be leading candidate for MVP with Westbrook.

    As it stands you can make a more compelling case for Kawhi as MVP than Boogie, and this is coming from someone who readily acknowledges the strides Boogie has made to his game.
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2017
  18. Lopes

    Lopes Guest

    Oh man could you imagine how good the Spurs would be if they pulled off the kawhi for bellinelli trade...said no one ever.
    Blob, 206Fan and New Era like this.
  19. mac

    mac Well-Known Member

    Well fans here wouldn't trade Cousins for LeBron so it's no surprise they think Kawhi isn't a superstar (basketball wise, not talking about cultural icon status and whatnot).
  20. kingdivac

    kingdivac Well-Known Member

    Often you don't know or expect who will become great or fall-out in the NBA. I watched a bit of Leonard at San Diego State and thought at best he'd be a journeyman in the league. His defensive game in College was little compared to what it is in the NBA and his shooting greatly improved especially from long range. He'd always had very smooth dribbling for his size and great athleticism. Surely he put in much work. Then you have an Oden or Fredette who ruled College but couldn't transition in the NBA. Drafting is a diamond in the rough situation really as there's more busts than even good players to say nothing of Stars or All-Stars.
  21. Mr. S£im Citrus

    Mr. S£im Citrus That's right, I said it! Staff Member Contributor

    I tend to be of the opinion that how a draft pick turns out is, like, ninety-eight percent the result of which team drafts him. There are, maybe, five guys in any given draft that would either end being a star or a bust, no matter where they got drafted, and everybody else, it depends on which teams they end up on.
    KingsFanSince85 likes this.
  22. Lopes

    Lopes Guest

    A great example of how stats can be misused. thanks for bringing this up. Basketball is a team sport trying to show value of an individual with one stat is futile. In the end all that matters is collecting assets that work well together. The kings have failed miserably for the last 10-15 yrs. very frustrating losing streak.
    Blob likes this.
  23. KingsFan80

    KingsFan80 Guest

    I am not sure how to respond to this...
  24. Bricklayer

    Bricklayer Don't Make Me Use The Bat Staff Member Contributor

    You should respond to it, like the other chuckleheads here, as flat FACT.

    You will note Kawhi's gushing Bieberesque teen idol fans here, are of course terrified of my little FACTUAL number and so inventing wild strawmen and arguments I did not make to try to counter. But there is no countering the FACT that the Spurs have been better with Kawhi off the floor than on this year.

    Which BTW is bizarre. He's had a very good -- as in nearly Cousins-level positive +/- impact in years past. But not this year, leading people on other boards, who watch ALL the teams, not just this one, to wonder a little whether 1st option offensive responsibilities have caused him to quit consistently focusing on defense, ala Kobe.

    Regardless, let's review. An idiotic statement was made about Cousins not having the impact of superstars. That is on its face wrong. Now how do we attempt to measure "impact"? Well, you go go W/L with a guy available or not. You can go go +/- with him on/off the floor. Or, yes, you can go "RPM", which I use but which is a messy "advanced" stat that mushes a lot of stuff together, including apparently raw stats and previous performance (you see we don't get to see the actual formula and so have to take it on faith).

    So, Cousins, by ALL of the above measures, is one of the most impactful players in the league. His +/- is virtually identical to James Harden and Anthony Davis, he's #11 in RPM, we're 0-1 without him this year, and for years now have been embarrassing + lucky to win 1 out of 5 without him available. He's an impact monster. So, as mentioned, stupid stupid statement that will not stand.

    And Kawhi on the other hand, is notably and NOTORIOUSLY (as in any involved NBA fan should already be aware of this number because it is being discussed) falling very very short in one of those ways of measuring "impact". Now Kawhi is a marvelous player. There's legit question whether he's got a superstar mentality, but his talent is undeniable. But the idiotic statement was not made about marvelous playerism. It was made about "impact". And the superstar with the biggest "impact" questions around him right now is Kawhi. The Spurs this year have actually done as well with Kawhi off the floor as on. That's an IMPACT issue.

    Here's the Net +/- of the Top 10 guys or so:

    Paul +18.7
    LeBron +18.2
    Westbrook +17.7
    Curry +12.5
    Antetokuonmpo +9.7
    Harden +8.2
    Davis +8.0
    Cousins +7.9
    Durant +5.0
    Kawhi -1.0

    See how that jumps out?
  25. Lopes

    Lopes Guest

    And yet what the s the Spurs record? Seriously you hinted at bellinelli being superior defender given your stat. You gonna stick with that?
  26. Capt. Factorial

    Capt. Factorial Cantry Member Staff Member Contributor

    Let's add some names here and try to figure out what is going on with Kawhi.

    Paul +18.7
    LeBron +18.2
    Westbrook +17.7
    Curry +12.5
    Antetokounmpo +9.7
    Harden +8.2
    Davis +8.0
    Cousins +7.9
    Durant +5.0
    Danny Green +4.0
    League Average 0.0
    Tony Parker -0.6
    Kawhi -1.0
    LaMarcus Aldridge -3.0
    Pau Gasol -6.3

    So we're looking at the second-best team in the league, and FOUR of their five starters are negative in net +/-? How can this be?

    The answer, of course, is that the Spurs' bench is absolutely killing it this year. Instead of the net +/-, let's look at the same players, but look at their team's DRTG when they are off the floor:

    Westbrook 114.1
    LeBron 111.9
    Paul 110.9
    Antetokounmpo 110.1
    Davis 108.6
    League Average 108.0
    Cousins 108.0
    Harden 104.8
    Curry 104.5
    Durant 104.4
    Danny Green 102.9
    Tony Parker 102.2
    LaMarcus Aldridge 100.5
    Pau Gasol 100.4

    Kawhi 97.5

    So basically every single one of the Spurs' starters are faced with an other-worldly "off" DRTG put up by the Spurs' bench. Just for completeness, let's look at the same thing, but for ORTGs when the player is off the floor:

    LaMarcus Aldridge 117.7
    Durant 113.4
    Pau Gasol 113.1
    Danny Green 111.9
    Tony Parker 110.7

    Curry 108.2
    League Average 108.0
    Kawhi 107.4
    Harden 106.9
    LeBron 106.2
    Paul 105.8
    Antetokounmpo 105.8
    Westbrook 102.0
    Cousins 100.2
    Davis 99.8

    Damn, look at the Spurs' offense when their starters are off the floor! Typical benches kinda suck at offense - look at the Kings and the Pelicans here. But the Spurs (and here also the Warriors) benches are really really good at offense.

    What we're seeing here is not "Kawhi is not making an impact and we don't know why." What we're seeing here is "None of the Spurs starters are making an impact in Net +/-, and the reason is that the Spurs bench is REALLY REALLY GOOD." We could also point out that Pop's sub patterns, which I admittedly haven't studied this year, could also play a role. What if Pop usually leaves two starters on the floor at all times? When the other starters rest, then their "off" values are going to have two starters and a Ginobili - so it's not necessarily ONLY the bench, there could be a lot of those San Antonio starters contributing to Kawhi's "off" values (just as Kawhi could be contributing to LMA's "off" numbers).

    The point is, there's a reason that Kawhi's Net +/- doesn't look good this year, and a deeper look shows that it's not because he sucks. It's because his team is really good too.
    alonshin, bajaden and peacelate like this.
  27. bajaden

    bajaden Well-Known Member

    This is why I pay zero attention to +/-. Too many variables. I've seen games where the best player on the floor gets a minus rating, and the only reason was the players around him. I would take Leonard in a heartbeat on my team. There are times when you have to go with the eye test, and he passes that test.
    SLAB likes this.
  28. KingMilz

    KingMilz Guest

    Giannis as well to me if GM's took that who would you start your franchise around poll again that had KAT winning they would switch it to the Greek Freak
  29. Mr. S£im Citrus

    Mr. S£im Citrus That's right, I said it! Staff Member Contributor

  30. jcwkings

    jcwkings Well-Known Member

    Cmon dude you are losing all credibility here. This is more absurd than the "IT is a team cancer chucking midget, get him out of here" from a few years ago, and even then I knew this was the twilight zone of Kings fans.

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