Kings Rotations

Discussion in 'Kings Rap' started by lwc, Nov 28, 2017.

  1. hrdboild

    hrdboild Well-Known Member

    Coaches tend to have different priorities than GMs. If I were to rank the organization's goals for this season it would go something like this:

    Ensure that we pick high in the 2018 draft
    Maximize the value of all tradeable assets
    Develop young players into core pieces of the rotation
    Continue to establish an environment of trust between the players and the coaching staff

    There are probably more but those seem like the key points. The head coach is looking at that same list and inverting it. His job is to work with the players he has now and establish habits which will benefit the team long-term. That means he has to reward players who play hard in practice and use a quick hook if he sees that a young guy is either unable or (worst case) unwilling to carry out the gameplan. It means he needs veterans on the floor for the inevitable moments when the kids start to get off track and he can't just call a timeout.

    Personally I would prefer that this season be used entirely to develop the future of the team. I would play our productive vets (Hill, Temple, Koufos) starters minutes in hopes that a playoff team will see them as vital parts to their post-season run and offer us something of value for them. That means the young guys have limited roles for now and they get to stay on the floor longer only if they're really having a great game (like Buddy was against the Clipps). I think it could be argued that Skal is getting too much slack for the way he's been playing for instance. That's only hurting his confidence and his perceived value. There's no benefit.

    Bogdanovic is the one guy caught in the middle. He's not a veteran but he's not a kid either. He's got a long-term deal already and I don't think anyone in the organization wants to see him traded. I think he should be getting all the playing time he can handle and he should be leading the team in shot attempts. Willie should be playing a lot too. He's either a core player or a trade piece and neither scenario benefits from keeping him on the bench.

    So looking at what Joerger has done so far with the minutes distribution, I don't see much to complain about. Fox and Skal should actually be getting less minutes at this point in the season I think. Bogs and Koufos should be getting more. Buddy and Zach are about right. Coach has a lot of different agendas to juggle and he's doing a reasonably good job of keeping everyone involved right now. Sending a few guys down to the G League helps. Establishign an actual starting lineup would probably help more. What I'd really like to see right now is a starting lineup with Hill, Temple, Bogdanovic, Kosta and Willie all getting 33+ minutes per game. Then we find takers for Hill, Temple, and Kosta and bid them a tearful goodbye, thank them for their services, and slide a better prepared trio of De'Aaron, Buddy, and Skal back into the starting lineup. Remember we came into this season with 9 players on rookie deals. There's no way we could have reasonably expected Joerger to find minutes for all of them. We can afford to be patient with all the kids. They may be our future but they're not ready yet and they may actually learn more from watching on the bench right now and talking through the plays with the coaching staff.
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2017
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  2. Blob

    Blob Well-Known Member

    "Unwatchable" and "Constantly lost on both ends" is hyperbole.

    Skal is missing shots he can make. He is pressing because he is struggling. When a player is pressing he tends to compounds his struggles.

    Skal needs to do a better job of establishing and holding position on both ends. Then he can make more plays and be more efficient. This is a primarily an issue of lower body strength.

    Even without this strength, Skal can still make more shots than he is making once he sees the ball go in and slows down and gets his confidence back.

    Skal has nice touch nice footwork and high release point. He get off his feet quick. He has decent to good rebounding and shot-blocking instincts. The skills are there.

    On the other hand I am disappointed Skal did not come back from off-season significantly stronger.

    Now perhaps that occurred but it is not reflected in his play because he was so far behind to begin with, strength-wise.

    He needs to do more heavy squats lunges and plyometrics so he does not get tossed around, so he is the pusher rather than the pushee.

    The Greek Freak is in his 5th year in the NBA (at 22 years old) and emerging as dominant LeBron-esque force.

    Skal will never be this good, but he has a similar frame to a 20 year old Giannis.

    Patience will be rewarded with Skal, though I am not entirely confident in our training and developmental staff.

    I said before the season for us to surprise the league and win 40 games we needed players to step forward and 2 of 3 three front court positions (SF, PF, C) to be filled with capable starters (Willie? Skal? Justin? Malachi? )

    Instead of 3 out of 3 favorable or 2 out of 3 favorable or even 1 of 3 stepping up and pleasantly surprising, we are ZERO out of THREE in terms of finding viable starters seizing opportunity.

    This is why we have a point differential (-12.2 per 100 possessions) commensurate with a 65 loss team. This can change but likely includes Skal becoming a capable rotational player.

    He doesn't have to be great, he just has to perform to his ability and reasonable expectations. That hasn't happened yet.
    King Baller likes this.
  3. SacTownKid

    SacTownKid Well-Known Member

    Yeah but his defensive effort hasn't been that bad though so I can somewhat understand Joergers reasoning. He's Joergers only real option to put someone in there as a small ball PF without being overwhelmed in some matches so I think Dave gets a pass on that one.
    King Baller likes this.
  4. SacTownKid

    SacTownKid Well-Known Member

    This team doesn't play a rotation that has what you consider a real starter though. Real starters minutes aren't being played by anyone right now and Skal in particular is playing something like 5-7 minutes of the 1st and 3rd some nights. If you are looking at the game from strictly a numbers standpoint, that extra 10 minutes or so could be the difference between a terrible game or a great one depending on the player. Look at Buddy's game against the Bucks the other night. Had Buddy been used the same way he was the next night, that outburst never occurs.

    I agree about Skal, patience with him is OK because he is still developing physically. I just hope he gets the same chances he got last year towards the end of the year when this show starts winding down.
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  5. Blob

    Blob Well-Known Member

    If you play these guys 33 minutes per game, you will score about 85 points per game and give up 110 points per game. (-25 points!)

    "What I'd really like to see is a starting lineup with Hill, Temple, Bogdanovic, Kosta and Willie all getting 33+ minutes per game."

    I understand your rationale of fielding your five best defenders, but it won't work.

    The reason no one is getting near close to 33 minutes per game is because no one has distinguished themselves as deserving of these many minutes.

    I think you are putting the cart before the horse. Once you get to the 15-20 MPG threshold, players don't play better because they get more minutes. They get more minutes because they play better.

    Temple and Hill is a non-dynamic (to be kind) backcourt. Boggy is not fleet of foot. Between Willie and Kosta you have zero legitimate post scorers or high post facilitators.

    There is not enough speed, creativity or shooting. You have a group that will defend but average about 20-22 points per quarter. Then you get behind get discouraged and get buried.

    The strength of this unit (defense) will collapse when the burden to score bends and breaks.

    Unless Hill becomes a 20 point scorer (little to no chance), Willie learns to create his own offense (little to no chance) or Boggy becomes lights out 50% from deep and become a legitimate primary 20 PPG scorer (little to no chance), this lineup for this duration is doomed.
  6. hrdboild

    hrdboild Well-Known Member

    I think you missed my intention here. We're not going to win a lot of games with this roster regardless. Maximizing our winning potential this season doesn't even begin to enter into my thinking and I don't think Joerger has a mandate to win either. We have no 2019 draft pick and no go-to scorers. We have a ton of rookies or second-year players who need to either (1) develop into core players we can rely on or (2) show enough long-term potential that they can be packaged in deals for different players who we can develop (ideally a wing who can absorb SF minutes). We're going to have a top 5 pick in this year's draft and hopefully that brings back a franchise player that we can build around. But that doesn't mean we need to throw this season away.

    Bogdan Bogdanovic and Willie Cauley-Stein
    are ready to play now so let's keep them out there and see what they can do. Both are exciting young players the fans can rally around.
    Garrett Temple and Kosta Kofous are both on expiring deals with player options. Both are valuable bench pieces (3 and D wing and steady backup big respectively) that playoff teams are shopping for every year. If we're going to get anything back for them it needs to happen before the 2018 trade deadline.
    George Hill is a respected veteran PG and arguably the best trade chip we have. If his numbers are up we can move him for a young wing player in the second half of the season and let Fox and Mason assume bigger roles.

    Giving these veterans playing time isn't just about trade value. It allows us to bring the kids along slowly, letting them work on a few key areas of the game at a time instead of the whole playbook. Have Skal focus on establishing position closer to the basket and securing rebounds. Have Fox work on his outside jumper and take note of how Hill defends. Let all the kids watch how legit NBA defenders like Hill, Koufos and Temple go about preparing for the game and working as a team. That way when more minutes open up for Fox, Mason, Buddy, and Skal later in the season they're actually ready to take advantage of the situation. Bogs and Willie will already be comfortable in their roles at that point too which makes the transition a little easier. It may be a boring team to watch in the meantime but at least we'd be accomplishing something. Fox feeding Randolph in the post then standing around and watching him go to work isn't accomplishing anything. It's not the way we want Fox to play anyway (I hope!), nobody is going to trade for Zach Randolph at this point in his career and there's nobody on the roster who's going to be here in 2 years that even remotely resembles Zach Randolph in play style. And that's really the only glaring problem I see on this team right now: Zach serves no purpose. We shouldn't have signed him in the first place, as either a role model or a building block, and letting him dominate offensive possessions in the post is a curious way to integrate the fastest PG since John Wall to the NBA.
  7. Suicide King

    Suicide King Well-Known Member

    Willie also represents the first rookie scale contract we will have to make a decision about. It would also be interesting to see the chemistry with Willie, Kosta and Bogdan try and set the tone for games from the start. It has some merit, especially since wins shouldn't be the driving decision maker right now.
    King Baller likes this.
  8. Folsomkingsfan

    Folsomkingsfan Active Member

    Joerger's bias to Randolph is what I think is the root cause of the issue. I'm sure by this point that Joerger has drilled into Fox's mind to look for Zbo every time down the court because he sees him as his only real reliable scoring option. I wish he would encourage Fox to look to create on his own rather than have him rely on a single player, which is what I think is going on.
  9. Blob

    Blob Well-Known Member

    You make fair points and a few I agree with, especially in regards to Randolph, a pointless signing rooted in sentimentality, not reality, especially with Jonathon Simmons for the having at 3/18, but don't you think the intention should be to be as competitive as possible while developing the youth?

    I think that should be the intention and I think that is what Joerger is trying to do.

    But I do NOT think playing the aforementioned line-up 33 minutes per game is a means to this objective. This is a means to get blown out.

    The issue is simple. The performance of individual players so far does not justify or mandate 33 minutes per game for any of them.

    Who can you honestly say deserves 33 minutes per game based on 20 game sample? I think the answer is NO ONE.

    Now prospectively when a player gets a hot hand or favorable match-up then "yes" play that player 30 minutes or 35 minutes or 40 minutes, by all means!

    If this has carryover one game to the next game then the playing time will become rightfully disproportionate towards that player.

    I hope this will be the case with guys like Buddy, Skal, Boggy and Fox but thats up to them. Until then, the new lineup starting with the first Portland game has paid incremental dividends. The stats unequivocally bear that out despite home thrashing vs the Bucks who in my opinion will be 25-12 in one month time or thereabouts. That is a DAMN good team ready to take off with the most dominant player in the NBA since a young LeBron.

    Given the monumental embarrassing struggles of the team, I don't think you keep playing musical chairs with the starters like you suggest.

    With regards to maximizing the trade value of Temple, Koufos and Hill preceding the 2018 trade deadline, I agree this should be a consideration. But the league knows what Temple and Koufos can do more or less. Expanding their roles to 33 MPG will accentuate their weaknesses as much as emphasize their attributes. They will be exposed as the role players they are. Your premise that playing them more will boost their value is flawed.

    With regards to Hill I think he benefits from playing with another PG in De'Aaron so he is more free to play off the ball and score. To maximize his value preceding the trade deadline, I do NOT think you want to pair him with Temple. I am confident pairing Hill with Fox is the best way to boost his production and value and potentially peddle him off if the right deal comes along.

    At the same time hopefully Skal and Giles develop and Z-Bong role declines and a new home is found for Koufos with Papa G and Giles absorbing those minutes to equal or better results.
  10. hrdboild

    hrdboild Well-Known Member

    Two things: (1) I don't think we should play musical chairs with the starting lineup, I think we should settle on a starting lineup and stick with it. A lineup that allows us to slowly develop our youngest players and give the few trade chips we have a chance to maximize their value. Now if George Hill sucks so bad that nobody will want him if he plays 30-35 minutes per game that's tough for us, but I don't think that will be the case because (2) As you yourself allude to, the league already knows who these players are. A 20 game sample from this season doesn't negate the 600 game samples we already have of Hill and Koufos and the 400 game sample we have of Temple. I don't expect them to suddenly break out as All-Stars with more minutes, I just want them to continue to play their game. They are role-players! That's fine. Playoff teams need role-players. We just need them to pass on their wisdom and then kindly step aside when the time comes. I'm not expecting a lottery pick in exchange for any of them, just an asset that we can use. Probably in a package deal with a redundant player like Malachi Richardson who isn't getting much of a chance behind Buddy and Bogs.

    This isn't that dramatic of a change either. Hill, Temple, and Cauley-Stein would only be getting 7-8 more minutes per game than they are now. Kosta and Bogs would be getting 10-12 more minutes per game. I don't think the result is going to be a sudden falloff in competitiveness from where we already are. We're at -10.8 already which is second worst in the league. Fox and Skal are struggling, let's pump the brakes a bit and pull back their minutes for now. In return they'll end up getting more minutes later in the season anyway and they'll theoretically be better prepared to perform by then. I think the whole team would benefit from a clarification of roles. I also don't think playing time is the magic pathway to improvement that it's sometimes assumed to be. Put the 5 players who are most capable of executing the gameplan on the floor and work in the kids when they show progress. Part of development is managing expectations and giving players reasonable goals and milestones to work toward.
    Suicide King likes this.
  11. sactowndog

    sactowndog Active Member

    I think the chances of any team offering us something of value for our vets is relatively low. The result is those minutes are lost for the young guys to develop and you lose draft spots.
  12. ppine

    ppine Well-Known Member

    Maybe now people will stop complaining so much about Randolph who got 25/13 last night in Chicago.
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  13. dude12

    dude12 Well-Known Member

    Unfortunately, that won't be the case. He played well though.
    VF21 likes this.
  14. Telemachus

    Telemachus Well-Known Member

    Nope! They will still complain because he still took minutes away from youth, and also helped lead us to a win (can't have those).o_O
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  15. CelticsFan

    CelticsFan Active Member

    Thought this was interesting

    ESP47 likes this.
  16. Capt. Factorial

    Capt. Factorial Cantry Member Staff Member Contributor

    Bonus points for anybody who can identify the three common factors in those Kings lineups.
  17. Suicide King

    Suicide King Well-Known Member

    I was trying not to think about it.
  18. VF21

    VF21 #KingsFansForever Staff Member Contributor

    They're all alphabetical?

    I know that's only one... :p

    And yes, I also know that's avoiding the reality. I can do that; I'm old.

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