Kings 3pt Defense - A Quantitative Scrutiny

Discussion in 'Kings Rap' started by Ron, Nov 27, 2016.

  1. Ron

    Ron Active Member

    The Kings have made the news (or record books) more than once, with the number of 3pt shots attempted or made against them. :oops:
    I seem to remember that we are the unwilling record holders for most 3-pointers allowed per season in the history of the NBA - a record we set last year. :(
    In their game against us the other night, the Rockets broke the all-time record for most 3-pointers attempted per game (50), and came only 2 shots shy of the NBA all-time record for 3-pointers made per game (21 vs the record of 23). :eek:

    I thought it might be interesting to research our 3pt D in a more detailed manner.
    Fortunately, the "Player Tracking - Defense" feature makes it quite easy to do. :cool:

    For instance, I didn't even need to go back to the video to check how many threes were made on each of our players last night. :)

    So... Which King was torched from the three last night?

    [​IMG]
    Here's a link to the query

    Well, mostly Rudy, it appears, with an awful 8 from 13 (62%!!) that were made on him last night (perhaps it had to do with Ariza's hot hand, but still...).
    Afflalo, on the other hand, was the best King in denying 3-pointers. Only 1 of 6 shots taken on him (16%) fell in!

    OK! Hold your horses, bros! I know that means nothing! :D
    I acknowledge, of course, that the above is purely anecdotal data with ZERO statistical significance. That's exactly why I decided to broaden the sample size gradually.

    To persue this more seriously, let's try and find out who our best & worst 3pt defenders are on a greater scale, and also check whether this is a consistent trait, or is it fluctuating/system-dependent.

    Sample check #1 - CURRENT SEASON:

    Who's been effective in defending threes on the Kings' roster this year?
    (Caution! Sample size still is too small for some/most/all players)

    upload_2016-11-27_18-56-46.png
    Here's a link to the query

    Well, AA shows consistent superiority as he allows only 25% of 3pt shots taken on him.
    (with DMC, DC & Casspi behind him)
    Temple & Barnes, on the other hand (and to a lesser extent Lawson), seem to fair quite badly against threes this year.
    It would also appear that Gay's performance vs the Rockets isn't cgaracteristic, as it evens out over the 62 shots taken on him in 15 games this season.

    Still, all these may well be mere statistical abberations, with a sample size of a few dozens shots apiece.

    Let's go further back, to last year's stats' data.

    Sample check #2 - PREVIOUS SEASON:

    Looking at 2015-16 may be problematic, since the Kings' defensive system (or lack thereoff...?:p) was different.
    We would also miss a lot of players who were not part of the Kings roster.
    Still - here goes:

    upload_2016-11-27_18-51-23.png
    A link to the query

    On a sample of a full season & hundreds of shots, Omri and Ben are the ones that emerge as the best defenders of the 3pt line (among members of last year's roster).
    Rudy Gay remains part of the middle pack, and DC seems sub-par.


    TO BE CONTINUED...
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2016
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  2. Bricklayer

    Bricklayer Don't Make Me Use The Bat Staff Member Contributor

    there's an interesting idea here -- I was thinking of doing some quarter by quarter work myself. But you need to clean this up a bit organizationally :p
  3. Fora Dragi

    Fora Dragi New Member

    You do realize basketball is a team game? You want to evaluate units that's fine but individuals is a bit difficult. You need to look at the help defense and who is missing their assignment either at the beginning or middle of the rotating D. Can't always blame the guy who is matched up.
  4. Ron

    Ron Active Member

    I'd agree, on a specific case/game or a small sample.

    The bigger the sample (body of shots) is - the less it would matter, IMHO.
    Russell Pimphustler and Amit149 like this.
  5. Ron

    Ron Active Member

    I would like to try and cover the guys I missed in 2015-16:

    Here's Temple with the Wizards last year (VERY unexpected!!):
    upload_2016-11-27_19-10-59.png

    Here's Barnes with th Grizzlies last year (also disappointing):
    upload_2016-11-27_19-13-0.png

    Here's Afflalo in the Kicks (Not top of the team but precentage still low enough):
    upload_2016-11-27_19-15-20.png

    and here's Lawson in the Rockets (nice....:D):
    upload_2016-11-27_19-18-56.png

    Attached Files:

  6. Fora Dragi

    Fora Dragi New Member

    What if you played on a unit w Jimmer. His guy gets beat you always have to stop the ball while his player throw to your wide open guy. Do you deserve the blame? Long or short term?
  7. Ron

    Ron Active Member

    1. What if your impact on 3pt shooting was stable accross 2 different teams & systems.
    Would you say that strengthens the case?
    2. Can you offer an alternative way to check the effectiveness of a player's defense against 3-pointers?
    (or are you just a knee-jerk critique ;))?
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2016
  8. Amit149

    Amit149 Well-Known Member

    Like he said, what you say is true on a specific instance but the bigger sample you have it has less meaning (though it's far from a perfect stat and some times "bad luck" does exist for certain player since the sample isn't that big).
    In that regard I think that checking the player as it relates to the team he played in is another important tool- and I'm not sure but maybe there are on/off spreads of how the team as a whole preformed with him on/off the floor.
    Ron likes this.
  9. Ron

    Ron Active Member

    I agree about the team context!

    That's why I always put the whole roster in the table.

    That way you can see how a specific player measures up to his teammates.
    Even if the whole team is bad (or exceptionally good) on defense,
    it's educational to see where the specific player ranks in comparison -
    (Near the top of the team's list, or near the bottom)
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2016
  10. dude12

    dude12 Well-Known Member

    Here's a thought though, looking at some of the previous seasons and current one, the guys at the bottom such as Temple and Barnes are usually on the better offensive players. There's no way Temple is our worst defensive player when it comes to the 3. Defensive stats are very tough to gauge......so many variables.
  11. Ron

    Ron Active Member

    Yeah... that's true...
  12. Ron

    Ron Active Member

    That's a valid point (As @dude12 also suggested).

    As for Casspi - let me check further, to see if he's consistent.
  13. The thing with Temple is he was playing behind Beal/Wall so if they were getting torched by someone (pg or sg) then you sic GT17 on them. It would make sense.
    Ron likes this.
  14. Mr. S£im Citrus

    Mr. S£im Citrus That's right, I said it! Staff Member Contributor

    [Modding]

    This thread has recently been sanitized for your sanity. Or, SANE-itized, if you will.
    VF21 likes this.
  15. Mr. S£im Citrus

    Mr. S£im Citrus That's right, I said it! Staff Member Contributor

    More posts deleted. Both of you, take it to PMs, if you want to continue this.
  16. Ron

    Ron Active Member

    As promised (to @Russell Pimphustler) I looked at Casspi's 3pt-D all the way (3.5 years back)


    Interesting stuff...

    I checked a year earlier, in 2014-15, and found out that Casspi was one of the LOWEST ranking
    Kings in 3pt defense that year, with a PLUS 5.0 impact on the 3pt% of the players he guarded. :(

    Since that was the infamous Malone>Corbin>Karl season, when we shifted paces and styles mid-season,
    I wondered if perhaps some of the posters here were right, assuming that Omri's "mojo" was only suitable for Karl's hyper-pace...
    So I tried to query the data on that particular season for each coach separately,
    and...
    Surprise!
    Funny enough, Malone's tenure was actually the best part of the season for Omri's 3pt defense!
    Those first 24 games of the season were the only period when Casspi had a negative (good) impact on the 3pt% of the players he was guarding.
    It was Karl's 30 games at the end of the season that made Omri's D-stats plummet...

    The Malone games:
    upload_2016-11-27_23-32-52.png
    The query

    Still, the bottom line is that Omri's 3pt D on that season was not elite
    (and not consistent, but who could be consistent on that cursed season?).
    He wasn't in the top bunch under any of the coaches.
    (Maybe he was still just adjusting to the team, on his 1st year of this stint)

    Anyway -
    To settle that question, and get the fullest picture possible, I checked further back, to 2013-14,
    (which is the furthest you can get, as this was the first year when tracking stats were introduced).

    Of course, Omri was not yet at Sactown back then, so I had to look at the Rockets' Tracking stats.

    What I found was quite unexpected, even for a years-long Casspi fan like me...

    Turns out that Omri was the Rockets' BEST 3PT DEFENDER, BY FAR,
    in the season he played there!
    upload_2016-11-27_23-52-49.png
    Link to query

    In fact, Omri was so effective in guarding the 3pt in that season,
    with his -10.6% impact (keeping ooponents to 25.9% from 3)
    THAT HE RANKED 2ND IN THE ENTIRE NBA!!! :eek::)

    upload_2016-11-28_0-3-42.png

    Link to query

    How cool is that? :cool:

    * Please also note that in Omri's stint in Houston he played almost SOLELY in the PF position,
    which is mostly where he may play for us this season (if he stays),
    as long as Rudy remains the stud he is, and WCS remains the... less of a stud he is...

    Last edited: Nov 28, 2016
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  17. Fora Dragi

    Fora Dragi New Member

    So you are saying team defense and schemes is more important than individual defense for defending the 3? I would have to agree.
  18. Ron

    Ron Active Member

    Yes, they ARE more important for defending the 3
    (But no, I wasn't saying that, because my posts dealt with the comparative aspect between various players in the same scheme)
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 27, 2016
  19. Glenn

    Glenn Well-Known Member Contributor

    Darn!!!
    Telemachus likes this.
  20. lwc

    lwc Well-Known Member

    Unfortunately the word is out about the Kings 3-point defense this season. The Nets just went 16/39 (41%) from 3 today.
  21. Spike

    Spike Well-Known Member

    Well yes, but I believe many of the makes were in garbage time. Going from memory, the last 4 shots were from 3, converting 3 of them.
    lwc and Ron like this.
  22. Ron

    Ron Active Member

    Well, if you're wondering who got torched last night, it was mostly Afflalo and Lawson (while Casspi maintained his reputation from above...):

    20161128_084610.png
    A link to the data

    Note, as @Spike correctly observed, that many 3s against us were made in garbage time. So perhaps Lawson deserves an appology, because he only yielded 1 of 3 when it counted, and another 3 of 3 in the 4th Q...

    Here's the 4th quarter tracking separately:

    20161128_090741.png
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2016
  23. IfAt1st

    IfAt1st Well-Known Member

    Temple has an odd obsession with cheating down to double-cover scrubs in the paint while leaving his man wide open at the 3-pt line.
    It was REALLY exposed (and pointed out on the telecast) in today's game vs the Nets.

    He HAS to stop doing this.
    The whole team has to stop doing it.
    The team does not get torn up by ballhandlers in one-on-one coverage in the paint.
    Why they continually ignore the 3-ptr (invariably how they are beaten) to double-team nobodies ion the paint who aren't being successful is a bafflement to me.

    Nice sign was that Joerger FINALLY mentioned it in the post-game comments.
    So he doesn't have an excuse to continue the insane tactic after tonight.
    206Fan, Ron and kingjatt like this.
  24. kingjatt

    kingjatt Well-Known Member

    Collison also does this alot, maybe not to the extreme that Temple does it but his recovery/closeout is worthless with him being just 6 feet tall thats pretty much a wide open look for an NBA player.

    I don't know how much of it is by design because Elston Turner mentioned trying to take away the paint vs. the Rockets in his halftime interview. You cant take just crash the paint anymore and force teams to take threes and expect to win because as we saw today even the scrubiest of teams can unleash on you if given just a bit of daylight.
  25. ESP47

    ESP47 Well-Known Member

    I'm glad Grant and Jerry got on to Temple last night for doubling Booker in the paint while leaving his man wide open to splash a couple three's in a row. Just no reason to double team unless they are at the top of the key and you can get back to your man in time.
  26. kingsboi

    kingsboi Well-Known Member

    So in other words, our players help with no reason whatsoever and in the process leaves way too many open players on the court, leaving the players to have to scramble around to recover, when it's too late.

    What was most telling to me based off those charts you posted is that Harden was above Beverley in 3 point defense, that alone tells me all I need to know about these stats. Gay is the most glaring to me without looking at any chart, followed by any guard not named Ty Lawson. For all his shortcomings, Ty actually tries to drive the player off the three and he does it consistently, unlike the majority of the roster, at least based off my own eye test.
  27. VF21

    VF21 #TheFutureIsSkal Staff Member Contributor

    This.
  28. Ron

    Ron Active Member

  29. ppine

    ppine Active Member

    Good work Ron. This is telling when it comes to evaluating the defense.
    Ron likes this.

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