First of all, I don't think Cauley-Stein is a make or break pick for us. He has a lot of talent defensively but I don't think he's anywhere close to Anthony Davis or Nerlens Noel on that end. He's very mobile and a legit 7 footer, but his block rate went way down this year and he also hasn't improved much offensively in three years. I think he's a safe pick, but almost everyone else in the top 10 has a higher ceiling than he does. I see him more as a Brian Grant level roleplayer than the defensive force some are predicting. That's a nice player to have, especially since he fits our needs so well, but there are probably better choices we could make.
After the consensus top 4 (Towns, Okafor, Mudiay, Russell), the next 4 for me are Johnson, Turner, Winslow, and Cauley-Stein in that order. Yes I have Cauley-Stein ranked 8th, not 5th. Johnson is the type of player who could eventually push Rudy Gay into a 6th man role (ala Andre Igoudala this year). He's just so smart defensively and always tries to put himself between the ball and the basket. On top of that he's physical enough to bull his way to the basket and get to the line and he's better than advertised from the three point line. I don't think he'll be near as prolific as James Harden as a scorer, but he has a similar type of offensive game where he doesn't look particularly quick or athletic but he keeps finding ways to put points on the board.
Winslow is a perfect bench wing for us -- he's instant energy and hustle. He's really improved as a scorer this season and you have to like his effort on defense. Every team needs players like that. Turner gets a bad rap I think having played at Texas instead of a bigger program with a better coach. When I look at Texas this year, almost everyone on that team got worse as the season went on. That doesn't happen on better coached teams. People forget that Turner was ESPN's #2 prospect from this class. He's got Chris Bosh type of potential though he's still got a long ways to go. Also, his numbers this year are actually very similar to LaMarcus Aldridge's freshman year at Texas. Minutes played, points, and rebounds are nearly the same and Turner average an additional block per game. Also Turner shot 84% from the free throw line which is really impressive for a freshman big man and suggests his developing three point jumper is probably legit as well.
We're going to learn more about Hezonja and Porzingis closer to the draft. Both of them deserve to be in the top 10 conversation from what I've seen. Hezonja is an explosive athlete who can shoot, handle, and drive to the basket and play either wing position. Porzingis is the kind of big man shooter we see in every draft it seems though he's a little more intriguing than most because he shows defensive potential as well. I also think Devin Booker is probably going to go in the 12-18 range but he's a player a lot of teams are likely to regret passing on. I would consider him at 9 or 10 and I'd definitely consider him if we package either McLemore or Stauskas in a trade for Noel. Philly currently has the #16 pick which is right about his projected draft range right now.
Obviously the higher the pick is the better chance we have of getting what we want in a trade, but even in the 6-8 range I think there are players on the board that other teams will covet. Johnson and Winslow in particular would be big gets for teams which need wing players (Lakers, Magic, Knicks, Sixers, Celtics, Nuggets, Pistons, Hornets). Of course that's contingent on them having something we want. Noel has come on strong at the end of the season and may be untouchable now. If we can't find a willing trade partner, I wouldn't feel bad about drafting Johnson, Winslow, Turner or Cauley-Stein. Turner is the only project among them who probably won't contribute as much right away but he could be the best player from this draft 3 or 4 years down the line.
So back to the original question, here's what I'm thinking at each lottery position:
(1) If we get #1 I'm 100% targeting Nerlens Noel and a lower Philly pick. A lot depends here on where Philly's top pick is and whether they get the Laker pick too, but I think we can make it happen somehow.
(2) Same as above, unless Philly has #1 -- although we might be able to talk them into the benefits of drafting both Towns and Mudiay to pair with Embiid next year. Drafting Towns is plan B unless he's off the board at #1 (which is pretty likely actually). I like Mudiay here in that case. Another possibility if Minnesota gets pushed to 4 is swapping picks with Minnesota in order to acquire Gorgui Dieng, who would also be a good fit in our starting lineup. Then we draft Mudiay, Russell, or Johnson at #4.
(3) Still targeting Noel, though we may have to drop the demand for a pick in return. Towns, Mudiay, or Russell would all be good choices for us if we keep the pick or make the Dieng trade.
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(6-8) This is where things get interesting. Philly could have as many as 4 first round picks in this draft in which case they don't need another one. They probably want one of Johnson or Winslow though if they don't get the Lakers pick. Assuming Towns, Mudiay, Russell, and Okafor are all gone I'm drafting Johnson, Turner, Winslow or Cauley-Stein and looking for a veteran upgrade in free agency. If the pick is Johnson or Winslow, DeAndre Jordan may be on the market after the Clippers get bounced from the playoffs a fourth year in a row and start to think about making some changes. If we take Turner or Cauley-Stein we probably don't want to block them but we'll need to add a steady veteran somehow as our third big.
The only situation which is a little worrying is if we end up 9 or 10. That's the range where it's difficult to trade the pick for much value and the players left on the board probably need a couple years to develop before they're regulars in an NBA rotation. There's a decent enough chance though that Porzingis or Hezonja impress enough to push somebody else down. But it's too early to worry about that right now. Once we actually know what our pick is, it'll be easier to sort through these kinds of scenarios and determine which of them are likely.
. Looking forward to a favorable lottery - we're long overdue!
