Donovan Mitchell: Pick Him at #10?

Discussion in 'Personnel moves' started by Blob, May 20, 2017.

  1. funkykingston

    funkykingston Well-Known Member

    A coach being effusive about one of his own players? I've never heard of such a thing. That's nothing against Pitino, but if Calipari came out and said that Malik Monk's natural position was PG it wouldn't mean much to me. I want to see it in a workout.

    Donovan DID improve his shot quite a bit which is encouraging. But it's also worth noting that his freshman year his outside shooting was almost exactly as bad as De'Aaron Fox's. 18 of 72 vs 17 of 69 for the season.

    A bigger concern with Mitchell for me is his bad decision making in terms of launching jumpers early in the clock instead of looking for a better shot for himself or his teammates and his struggles finishing at the rim. He shot 50.7% at the basket and for all his strength and athleticism he really struggles to finish inside. Part of it is that he doesn't really get lift off one foot. He's explosive when he can gather and jump off two. But part of it is just throwing up some ugly shots.

    For reference Fox shot 58.6% at the rim and his tendency to get easily bumped off course or finish in traffic concerns me. Monk shot 61.6% though he had more open dunks that Fox or Mitchell due to attacking closeouts that had to respect his shot. Ntilikina shot 62.5% but didn't appear to get all the way to the rim often, at least in the tape I've seen. Smith shot a really impressive 65.7% at the basket, showing how well he attacks and finishes but my concern is his terrible midrange shooting and lack of a floater game that he'll absolutely need on the next level. Ball shot a ridiculous 75.6% at the rim but over half of those baskets were assisted and a bunch more came in transition. UCLA didn't run much pick and roll and he rarely broke his man down to attack the basket. But regardless of how he accomplished it, Lonzo Ball's shot chart and eFG% are borderline historic. I can't remember another player with offensive efficiency like his. But I digress.

    The player I thought was most similar to Mitchell in last year's draft was Wade Baldwin and he shot around 56% at the rim and often had trouble finishing.

    Anyway, I am high on Donovan Mitchell. But I have questions just I with every prospect in this draft. Part of my hesitation with him might be that he reminds me a lot of Baldwin (who I really liked last year) and that could be biasing me. I think Mitchell has similar physical tools but is more athletic than Baldwin but he's also not as natural an outside shooter and shows more issues with decision making. He also hasn't actually played PG in college.

    Isaac or Tatum at 5 and Mitchell at 10 wouldn't be a bad draft to me. I'd like it a lot more than Collins at 10. But if the Kings were to draft Mitchell I think I'd prefer if it was after taking Fox at 5. Then you have a very natural PG, likely at veteran PG and then Mitchell as the 3rd PG who can develop at his own pace. Again, IF Mitchell can be a PG or combo guard then I'm interested. If he's solely a SG then I'm not nearly as high on drafting him.

    A team of:

    Mitchell
    Hield
    Isaac
    Labissiere
    Cauley-Stein/Papagiannis

    could be very good defensively and has some solid shooting but would really struggle in terms of ballhandling and playmaking.
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2017
  2. Blob

    Blob Well-Known Member

    Sorry but I trust my own eyes and assessment of Hall of Fame head coach over yours. Pitino says he is a PG. He doesn't say combo guard. Obviously he has work to do, but not unlike Westbrook when he came into league. I am not saying Donovan can be the next Westbrook, but when you have a dominant physical and athletic profile AND work ethic, this bodes well he will respond to the challenge. Donovan keeps his dribble through traffic has spin moves, up and under moves. He is strong and quick. This is a guy who is going to force defense in his direction which will leave targets open for dunks and open shots. He has a lot to learn but all the tools are there.

    I would take him over Frank N and Dennis Smith Jr. at #10 without hesitation.
    Nokidding and biltalent like this.
  3. Blob

    Blob Well-Known Member

    It would be great if Jackson were to fall to #5. That would make me more confident taking Donovan at #10. Jackson can take a lot of pressure off our guards by running offense from the top of the key as a point forward.

    I disagree with Fox and Donovan (#5 and #10). You can't do that and bring over Bogdan who is being penciled in as a back-up PG. It's too much of a log jam and too much youth at one position. If we are fortunate enough to get Fox at #5, that excludes Donovan at #10.
  4. funkykingston

    funkykingston Well-Known Member

    Jackson works well as a point forward. I wouldn't want him running the offense full time, but it would be a big help.

    Bogdanovic is a shooting guard. He's got some playmaking and has spent some minutes at PG for Fenerbahce but I wouldn't want him playing PG in the NBA. He'd be like a slower Temple but with better passing vision as a PG. I like him much more as a playmaking SG. In fact, that might be an argument FOR Mitchell as Bogdan could help out with ballhandling and playmaking if he's on the floor with Mitchell.

    Will the Kings know if Bogdanovic is coming over before the draft? If not, I don't think draft decisions can be made based on him. And even if they knew he was coming over for sure they probably shouldn't anyway.
  5. ESP47

    ESP47 Well-Known Member

    I agree. Ideally you'd want all 5 positions to have playmaking abilities but you still wouldn't win if every player on the court had Temple's play making abilities. You still need that guy who can go out and get it done when the set play doesn't work correctly. If you can get that main guy and then surround him with guys like Bogdan, then you have a handful of options on each possession that are at your disposal. But in the end, someone has to be the master of their trade out there in order to win consistently in the NBA.

    I really hope Bogdan gives the Kings an answer before the draft. I don't know if their season ends before the 22nd but it would be irritating to find out that he's handicapping the organizations ability to correctly build a team by not giving them an answer on time. Guess we will find out here shortly.
  6. dude12

    dude12 Well-Known Member

    Donovan Mitchell is a PG like Garret Temple is a PG......not ideal.
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2017
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  7. steelevt

    steelevt Well-Known Member

  8. funkykingston

    funkykingston Well-Known Member

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  9. Sam0ah

    Sam0ah Active Member

  10. kingsboi

    kingsboi Well-Known Member

    nice to see them bringing Mitchell in, Oliver too.
    Jimbob likes this.
  11. Jimbob

    Jimbob Well-Known Member

    Its good to bring him in regardless of what we might do with the 5th pick. Mitchell has increased his stock to the point he is now mentioned by some as a top 10 pick. For us he needs to show PG capabilities, if not for us his rise could drop another wanted player down to 10.
    I hope he has a good showing for the Kings, if the playmaking ability is there he Buddy and Bogdan can be a well rounded rotation. And yeah, another plus is Mitchells skills mean we can comfortably take a SF at 5.
  12. Čarolija

    Čarolija Well-Known Member

    They are doing what they should be doing....covering all their bases and catering for different scenarios that draft day will throw at them. There is not much you can read into this other than the front office doing their due diligence.
    roasthawg likes this.
  13. Khanh

    Khanh New Member


    sounds like an awesome leader and loves playing defense
  14. Blob

    Blob Well-Known Member

    I know how to pick 'em ;)
    Khanh likes this.
  15. Jimbob

    Jimbob Well-Known Member

    Great interview, I also enjoyed the Swanigan and Oliver interview, both should be considered at 34.

    I have said a few times if Fox is off the board I would be happy with a draft of Isaac at 5 and Mitchell at 10. I do wonder if Mitchell impressed in his Sacramento workout with lead guard capabilities. Also wonder if he was the pick at 10 who the Kings would target as a veteran PG to help bring him along.
    kingsfan1984 likes this.
  16. ovrush

    ovrush Active Member

    Love this interview. Makes me feel even better about not trading up for Fox. I love Fox, but if he's gone snag Isaac and Mitchell at 10 and become a scary defensive unit.
    kingsfan1984 and Jimbob like this.
  17. roasthawg

    roasthawg Well-Known Member

    Mitchell is not a point guard from everything I'm reading. More of a sg in a pg body.
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  18. OptimusRhyme

    OptimusRhyme Jive Turkey Contributor

    This Kid is absolutely tearing it up. Amazing player. I Knew we shoulda took him at ten
  19. ESP47

    ESP47 Well-Known Member

    Pains me to say it, but Blob was right.

    Last 4 games scoring 24, 41, 21, 31 all on 50%+ shooting.

    Just bad timing for the Kings. A really good SG is finally in line for us to take in the draft when we are loaded with SG's after having next to nothing from that position for years.

    KANGZ
  20. 206Fan

    206Fan Well-Known Member

    you called it. I didn't want Mitchell because I didn't think he could actually play PG. He can't yet, but he's showing that he's a more than capable ball handler. That leaves him with SG...which the Kings were already loaded in Buddy, Richardson, and Bogdan.

    Right now...I just need Fox to be showing some of that same promise. It hurts for Fox to look like a developmental PG, while Mitchell is already looking like a stud.
  21. kingsboi

    kingsboi Well-Known Member

    I was going to post in the NBA section about Mitchell killing it in the last five games, he continues to impress. Another one that slipped through the cracks unfortunately for the Kings.
  22. Blob

    Blob Well-Known Member

    31 points for Donovan tonight against OKC. He makes the game look easy, something all great players do.

    Everything I said about Donovan in this thread has come to fruition, like everything I said about Lonzo Bust has come to fruition.

    I am not the least bit surprised. Projecting talent is not that hard when you don't believe the hype and trust your own eyes. :)

    There was NO stronger advocate for Mitchell pre-draft and NO stronger detractor for Lonzo Bust than myself.

    One guy is often embarrassing to watch and one guy is mostly unstoppable and probably defends better than he scores.

    Here was the problem in retrospect from the Kings standpoint.

    Even if Vlade loved Mitchell, and maybe he did, it would have been hard to choose him at #10. After getting his PG at #5, with Temple and Buddy and Boggy likely coming over, it would have been misuse of assets from the perspective of need to add a combo guard to this mix. Then you effectively turn Boogie into three guards (Buddy, De'Aaron, Donovan) when you have a massive void on the wing and NO proven starting frontline players.

    The counter argument is that there was still free agency and bad teams have to take BPA. This is a valid counterargument but after landing his franchise PG any GM would be strongly compelled to redeem one of his next best assets (draft pick) to get frontline help. With Donovan projected as a PG or combo guard (no matter what other analysis may have contended), I cannot fault him too harshly for parlaying this #10 asset as he did.

    Regardless this predicament is why I was critical of us not holding out to get Brandon Ingram when the decision to trade Cousins was made. As much as I like Buddy and his star potential, Ingram is more of a unique talent at a position that is harder to fill (combo forward). That guy is super coordinated, lanky, with face-up game hard to contain. He is a modern day player and poor man's Giannis (very poor, for now).

    We could have had Ingram and MORE (Russell and/or Randle and/or pick) if our GM did not panic around the All-Star break.

    Then in anticipation of getting your prized Euro and anticipating a guard heavy draft, you are better positioned going into the draft to get the best player AND fill a position of need, that is, a guy like Donovan.

    Yet again I cannot to be too critical of Vlade on draft day because we are presuming about a lot of hypotheticals here, including if the Kings would have retained their pick instead of conveying to CHI had they traded with LAL and where we would have picked if we kept it.

    One other point is that the draft might have played out a lot differently for us at #10 if Miles Bridges doesn't choose to go back to school.

    The teams that should be legitimately second guessed for passing on Donovan are:
    • Knicks at #8 (Frank N looks pretty good but not sure about his burst)
    • Dallas at #9 (Mitchell > DSJ 8 days per week; Mitchell is 2X the defender and leader)
    • Charlotte @ #11 (Mitchell > Monk; another easy call; two way player vs skinny one dimensional kid)
    • Denver @ #13 (Traded the Rights to Donovan @ #13 for Trey Lyes and Tyler Lydon @ #24...oops)
    Donovan does have the advantage of two years of development (physical, emotional) on these guys (Frank, DSJ, Bust, Monk) including De'Aaron, but they have a lot of catching up to do.

    P.S. I haven't scouted yet for 2018, but I think DeAndre Ayton may be the best prospect since LeBron James. He will be the #1 pick.
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2017 at 11:06 PM
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  23. Blob

    Blob Well-Known Member

    Donovan can play PG just fine. He just doesn't need to with Rubio, and you would not want him there full-time anyway or else it would detract for his scoring.
  24. 206Fan

    206Fan Well-Known Member

    I firmly believe that if Mitchell was drafted by the Kings, he would be in the GLeague right now. Joerger has given extremely short leashes, and he has already pulled players for missing shots. On the other hand, Snyder doesn't do this. He encourages his guys to take shots even if they miss. He doesn't penalize them in the same way Joerger does. But to be fair to Joerger, he also doesn't have to deal with 6 1st and 2nd year players.

    Mitchell has been absolutely great, but I highly doubt he would flourish in Sacramento. Fox has been advertised and marketed as our franchise player, but he hasn't been put in a position to succeed. Joerger hasn't been playing to his strengths. Same thing with Mitchell would happen. If he didn't play the way Joerger wanted him to, he would be yanked immediately.
    ESP47 and kingsfan1984 like this.
  25. CelticsFan

    CelticsFan Active Member

    Great call with Donovan! I may have missed it but how do view the Kings young talent. This post you think Buddy has star potential, I don’t see it. What am I missing that you see? He’s had playing time both in Sac and NO and really hasn’t done anything that would make me believe he has star potential. To me he looks like a guy who can come off the bench and depending if he’s hot or not get you some quick buckets.

    What about the other young guys? If you’re going off eye test Fox hasn’t done anything to make me believe we can count on him to be our “starting PG for the next 10 years” as people have suggested here.

    We all hope all these guys turn out to be stars but stars get paid 20+ mil a year after their rookie deal is up. Do you anticipate paying any of these player that? IMO none of our guys look like stars.
  26. Jimbob

    Jimbob Well-Known Member

    I was also pretty keen on Mitchell, but more keen on Fox at 5 so......I never did like the idea of trading down the 10th pick, that pick should have been reserved for BPA regardless of perceived need.
    Seems Vlade likes to stock pile young players and hopes the law of averages is that one or maybe two will pan out. Sort of like buying multiple stocks as a do it yourself investor.
    Mitchell showed vast improvement in his sophomore year which is huge when you consider some players deceive their freshman year, then their stock drops as sophomores like Ivan Rabb.
    Anyways, Mitchell worked out for the Kings, interviewed extremely well and our evaluators of talent missed.
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2017 at 5:12 PM
  27. Nokidding

    Nokidding Active Member

    Giles better be Webber 2.0

    Beast call @Blob
  28. sactowndog

    sactowndog Active Member

    Too early to tell about Fox. He is quick but he needs to develop his game.

    I think the big miss was not the trade down but passing on OG for Justin.
    Suicide King likes this.
  29. Jimbob

    Jimbob Well-Known Member

    I see early in this thread Kingsboi suggested Giles at 10, lets hope he too is on to something.
    I'm realitivlely new to these boards but know that almost every year the Kings scouting dept miss big on an impact player while some of the fans are seeing the obvious. So far this year its looking like Mitchell, and to a lesser extent Kuzma and John Collins though I don't remember anyone talking about them pre draft.
    Anyways, all teams miss but do the Kings seem to excell at it?
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2017 at 3:37 AM
  30. gunks

    gunks Well-Known Member

    It's a bummer we missed out on this kid. If we didn't have Bogs and Buddy, I wonder if we would have drafted him....

    I also wonder if he would have developed this fast under Joerger. There's no way I see Mitchell jacking 20 shots a game on Dave's watch.

    If Giles's knees hold up, and if he can live up to his potential, all is forgiven.

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