Diminished Impact of Center & the Three-Point Shot

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#1
http://timeoutatshannons.com/blog/new/nba-centers-face-extinction/

I don't think this subject gets enough discussion. Cousins may be the best center in basketball, which in years gone by would be huge news, but if the center's impact in determining the outcome of the game has diminished significantly because of the 3-point shot and all of its ramifications, then how big of a deal is it really? If we were in an era prior to the 3-point shot, or in the 2000s when the impact of the 3-point line hadn't thouroughly permeated the coaching, strategy, refereering, and individual player skills and shot selection of the NBA, and we did in fact have the best center in basketball, would we have finished with the 7th worst record in the league? The fact that Cousins spends as much of his time facing the opponent from the outside is a testament to the "new game" of the NBA, which incentivizes the face up game and disincentivizes the back-to-the-basket game. Cousins is undoubtedly a good NBA player, but is the position of center more important than other positions, no more important than other positions, or is it less important than other positions on the floor in the current NBA? And in this new era of 3-point ball, how does the role of center change, if any?
 
#2
I think a strong force on the inside is just as important as ever. Just because the rest of league may have been pulled into using the 3 point shot more, doesn't mean that every team has to be influenced as heavily.

What I find interesting is that scoring averages were actually higher some time ago, when not nearly as many 3 point shots were attempted. If you want to score at a more efficient higher rate, find a way to take 'easier' shots closer to the basket
 
#3
I think a strong force on the inside is just as important as ever. Just because the rest of league may have been pulled into using the 3 point shot more, doesn't mean that every team has to be influenced as heavily.

What I find interesting is that scoring averages were actually higher some time ago, when not nearly as many 3 point shots were attempted. If you want to score at a more efficient higher rate, find a way to take 'easier' shots closer to the basket
This is a testament to what happened when guys started to jump ship on their college careers early. The fundamentals and mid range parts of the game slowly diminished. Now guys either emphasize on taking the ball to the rack or hovering around/back peddling towards the 3-point line.
 
#4
The rise of the three point shot is just math. It makes sense to shoot them, if you make a high percentage and keep balance in your offense. The increased emphasis on three point shooting can and should be a boost for players with post games. Team needs to guard the three point line, particularly the corners more now than the 90s when Hakeem, Shaq, Robinson, and Ewing were putting up 20 a game mostly in the pivot. The way the game is going centers should have more space to work and defenses will have to pick their poison.

Many team have to get creative with small ball because there are so few traditional centers that can score. But given the choice, most teams would take a mobile post up center.

And it's not just guards that post up. Lebron was great as a face up player, but got two rings when he focused on the back to the basket game he'd been tinkering on for a few seasons.

Post play isn't ineffective. It's just something kids aren't working on today. They would rather be KG than Duncan.
 
#5
http://timeoutatshannons.com/blog/new/nba-centers-face-extinction/

I don't think this subject gets enough discussion. Cousins may be the best center in basketball, which in years gone by would be huge news, but if the center's impact in determining the outcome of the game has diminished significantly because of the 3-point shot and all of its ramifications, then how big of a deal is it really? If we were in an era prior to the 3-point shot, or in the 2000s when the impact of the 3-point line hadn't thouroughly permeated the coaching, strategy, refereering, and individual player skills and shot selection of the NBA, and we did in fact have the best center in basketball, would we have finished with the 7th worst record in the league? The fact that Cousins spends as much of his time facing the opponent from the outside is a testament to the "new game" of the NBA, which incentivizes the face up game and disincentivizes the back-to-the-basket game. Cousins is undoubtedly a good NBA player, but is the position of center more important than other positions, no more important than other positions, or is it less important than other positions on the floor in the current NBA? And in this new era of 3-point ball, how does the role of center change, if any?
well, you have to ask yourself the age-old question: "which came first, the chicken or the egg?" perhaps the emerging significance of the three-point shot is a result of diminishing returns from big man prospects in the last decade, and not some magical formula that advanced statistical gurus have conjured from thin air. or, more likely, perhaps the emerging significance of the three-point shot has simply coincided with the decline of quality big men across the league at large. thus, for lack of legitimate low-post threats in an age of sophisticated defensive schemes, the three-point shot has earned a much greater value for some teams...

the metrics of three-point shooting in the contemporary nba really isn't that complicated, but the easiest way to space the floor remains in having players who can draw defenses toward the rim, which opens up the game for the marksmen of the league. if you've got lebron james, then you've got the greatest in the world and a multi-dimensional offensive weapon that can attack the post in a number of smart and highly-skilled ways, making life leaps-and-bounds easier for the outside shooting guns-for-hire that miami employed across the last four years (and that cleveland will likely employ for the next several)...

and if you've got demarcus cousins, then you've got the single most offensively-gifted center in the entire nba, and one who is able to dominate the low block on a regular basis. but, as you note, it is a different era, and it's not easy for a dominant post big to accomplish an entire offense's worth of work on his own. hence the need for supplementary shooting. note: since demarcus cousins was drafted by sacramento, the kings have routinely shot around 33% from distance, which has consistently ranked them at the bottom of the league...

that said, i can appreciate the new regime's insistence on bringing in additional shooting, as well as the new regime's insistence on the ball not "sticking." with more threats from outside, and with a greater emphasis on ball movement, the kings should be able to effectively swing the ball to cousins and then back out to dead-eye shooters like nik stauskas. if mclemore had come as advertised during his rookie year, it's no big secret that life would have been made much easier for demarcus (and it also may have eliminated the need to draft stauskas altogether)...
 

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
#6
We have a rare commodity on our team, a once in a generation type of talent in DeMarcus and not many teams can say they have that option. When you look around the league these days, yes it's a lot about three point shooting, I mean look at the 2011 Mavericks for example, they had no low post presence but as a team they all shot the ball really well and won a championship with an efficient Dirk. Most of the players in the league depend on either elite scoring or elite two way players so we can say that we have that low post player that can also take you out on the perimeter. Complimentary three point shooting and floor spacing is what is required next, whether we will have that this season is yet to be determined.
 
#7
This is a testament to what happened when guys started to jump ship on their college careers early. The fundamentals and mid range parts of the game slowly diminished. Now guys either emphasize on taking the ball to the rack or hovering around/back peddling towards the 3-point line.
Needs to start well before that. For most players, if you play in the NBA you were tall in high school. You should be working on a post game, at least a little, since at least the 8th grade. Even if it's just something you tinker with to break out a few times a game. The player wants to work on his handle so he can be a prospect if he doesn't grow much taller. The coach wants to win games and it's easier to take the ball out of the hands of the best player on the court by doubling him on the block. Often, they both push it off.

For kids that stay even 2-3 years, college is a good place to work on this like a post game or other skills. But if show up to college without have a feel for the post and the spacing down there, it's going to take a long time to craft a post game.
 
#8
This is a testament to what happened when guys started to jump ship on their college careers early. The fundamentals and mid range parts of the game slowly diminished. Now guys either emphasize on taking the ball to the rack or hovering around/back peddling towards the 3-point line.
The worst shot in basketball that is attempted on a regular basis, is the step-back and/or fade away three. I'd rather see a player 'step into' a 21 foot two point shot
 
#9
Several things the author mentions are not quite correct or in some cases flat out wrong.

Yes, some of the players in the game still carry the label, but only one of the starters, Dwight Howard, possesses the physical characteristics or style of play historically attached to the position.
Um, Kevin Durant is bigger than Bill Russell. Let me say that again for emphasis. Kevin Durant is an inch taller and weighs 20 lbs or so more than Bill Russell did in his playing days. And only Dwight Howard has the style of play or physical characteristics? Roy Hibbert is taller than any of the great centers listed and other than O'Neal he outweighs all of them. And according to this shot chart 70% of his shots were taken at the rim and 91% of his shots were taken in the paint or from either block. Marc Gasol? Pau Gasol? Cousins? Duncan? There are plenty of big men who still play a traditional back to the basket game. Certainly many look to expand their skill set and definitely a lot more guys that in years past WOULD have been planted in the blocks moving to the wings ala Dirk and Garnett. But the notion that low post scoring big men are gone is ridiculous. Even more ridiculous that Howard, a guy with virtually no low post moves, is being deemed the only true back to basket center left.

Ostensibly, the shot would open up play in the middle, but over the long run it devalued size and interior skill. Prior to the 3-pointer, closer shots tended to be better shots, and highly skilled big players excelled at making close shots. The 3-point shot slowly changed team offensive strategy as well as the long player development.
Um, what? The Rockets won championships by essentially clearing everyone out to the three point line to give Olajuwon space to operate. The three point shot was used to punish defenses from double teaming the Dream. And if they did guard him straight up he'd dominate anybody that tried to defend him. A very young Shaq and his Orlando team got the schooling of a lifetime from Olajuwon. It wasn't the three point shot that won them that series. It was Olajuwon's otherworldly low post play that opened up the three point shot for his teammates. And how is the modern era Rockets team being constructed? Well, with Asik now jettisoned it is essentially the same setup. Dominant big man, surrounded by three point shooters. Add in Harden's ability to attack the rim to cover for the fact that Dwight isn't really a dominant low post player and you have virtually the same formula. The three point shot can't eliminate inside play because without inside play (either by a post player or a slasher) there is no double team to leave open a three point shooter.

Along with the 3-point shot, the ratcheting up of physical play in the middle rendered low post play less effective. By the mid to late 1980s players such as Rick Mahorn and Kevin McHale wrestled for post position. In earlier eras, court position was ceded based on first to a spot. By the 1990s, the low post wrestling morphed into all out body-to-body combat. Centers with fade-away shots such as Olajuwan or Ewing and O’Neal with his brute force could survive but the die was cast. The same forces bubbled up at the collegiate level. I sometimes hear fans and analysts express dismay at the “lack of low post skills,” but low post skill is impossible to employ when defensive players are permitted, literally, to shove offensive players.
The author has his timeline reversed. In the 50's and 60's the dunk was often seen as a showoff move and guys would get shoved mid air. The NCAA banned dunking when Lew Alcindor was in college. And while the 80's and early 90's (thanks largely to Chuck Daly and post Lakers Pat Riley) did see an increase in physical low post play, the league has been steadily reducing the allowable contact down low. You cannot legally shove a low post player. You can't even put two hands on him. This point by the author is simply wrong. Defensive players (on the wings as well as the post) have MORE restrictions on them now, allowing offensive players more room to work. And it isn't the physicality of the college level that prevents developing a low post game. It's kids coming out of college after a single season, not having worked on their game and largely lacking the bulk to battle grown men down low.

The league values the 3-point shot and the the athleticism of Michael in his era and and LeBron today.
I found this quote interesting simply because as their careers wore on both Jordan and now James have found increasing success by posting up their defenders. And just with great centers, the key was to surround them with guys who could hit outside shots to punish double teams.

And that's the big issue with this entire article. The 3 point shot isn't making low post players extinct. If anything, it's slowly killing the midrange jump shot. That shot is a lower percentage shot than shots in the paint and while it is (or at least should be if players today still worked on it) a better percentage shot than a three, the difference of that extra point scored on a 3 makes the long jumper a better shot statistically.

And the other thing the author seemingly misses is this - the three point shot is almost always a passive play. Yes, there are pull up threes in transition, and the Durants and Currys of the world will dribble over screens to launch a three but the vast majority of the time it's a guy camped out in the corner, on the wing or up top and waiting for a pass to come out so he can catch and shoot. By its very nature it is almost exclusively a play that depends on someone else beating their man and requiring a rotation or forcing a double team to free up an open look for three.

Strong post play GENERATES open three point looks.

There is a lack of great centers in the NBA right now compared to the last couple decades. But the author's conclusion for why is off base.
 
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#11
This article makes me think we should have traded Demarcus and maxed out IT instead and built the team around him.
The real question is whether or not we'd have found any takers for Cousins.:eek:
He's a center with the ability to be dominant in the low post, and though he can hit the mid-range shot, he is unable to really stretch that all the way to the 3-point line. So...considering that we're paying him the max, would we even find another team that would want such a relic?:rolleyes:
 
#12
I think people are a bit out of hand with the love of guard heavy basketball. We just went through a period of time where there weren't great young bigs and instead a lot of great young wing players and a ton of point guards. The NBA adjusted to its talent (as it always has done). If the future has great young bigs with Davis, Cousins, and Embiid, then don't be surprised if trends change again.

The way the NBA game is played is based around the star talent. Even the rules are changed to accommodate this.
 
#13
I think people are a bit out of hand with the love of guard heavy basketball. We just went through a period of time where there weren't great young bigs and instead a lot of great young wing players and a ton of point guards. The NBA adjusted to its talent (as it always has done). If the future has great young bigs with Davis, Cousins, and Embiid, then don't be surprised if trends change again.

The way the NBA game is played is based around the star talent. Even the rules are changed to accommodate this.

This is an interesting thought. Hence the physical guard play that was allowed during Jordan's reign.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#14
Several things the author mentions are not quite correct or in some cases flat out wrong.



Um, Kevin Durant is bigger than Bill Russell. Let me say that again for emphasis. Kevin Durant is an inch taller and weighs 20 lbs or so more than Bill Russell did in his playing days. And only Dwight Howard has the style of play or physical characteristics? Roy Hibbert is taller than any of the great centers listed and other than O'Neal he outweighs all of them. And according to this shot chart 70% of his shots were taken at the rim and 91% of his shots were taken in the paint or from either block. Marc Gasol? Pau Gasol? Cousins? Duncan? There are plenty of big men who still play a traditional back to the basket game. Certainly many look to expand their skill set and definitely a lot more guys that in years past WOULD have been planted in the blocks moving to the wings ala Dirk and Garnett. But the notion that low post scoring big men are gone is ridiculous. Even more ridiculous that Howard, a guy with virtually no low post moves, is being deemed the only true back to basket center left.



Um, what? The Rockets won championships by essentially clearing everyone out to the three point line to give Olajuwon space to operate. The three point shot was used to punish defenses from double teaming the Dream. And if they did guard him straight up he'd dominate anybody that tried to defend him. A very young Shaq and his Orlando team got the schooling of a lifetime from Olajuwon. It wasn't the three point shot that won them that series. It was Olajuwon's otherworldly low post play that opened up the three point shot for his teammates. And how is the modern era Rockets team being constructed? Well, with Asik now jettisoned it is essentially the same setup. Dominant big man, surrounded by three point shooters. Add in Harden's ability to attack the rim to cover for the fact that Dwight isn't really a dominant low post player and you have virtually the same formula. The three point shot can't eliminate inside play because without inside play (either by a post player or a slasher) there is no double team to leave open a three point shooter.



The author has his timeline reversed. In the 50's and 60's the dunk was often seen as a showoff move and guys would get shoved mid air. The NCAA banned dunking when Lew Alcindor was in college. And while the 80's and early 90's (thanks largely to Chuck Daly and post Lakers Pat Riley) did see an increase in physical low post play, the league has been steadily reducing the allowable contact down low. You cannot legally shove a low post player. You can't even put two hands on him. This point by the author is simply wrong. Defensive players (on the wings as well as the post) have MORE restrictions on them now, allowing offensive players more room to work. And it isn't the physicality of the college level that prevents developing a low post game. It's kids coming out of college after a single season, not having worked on their game and largely lacking the bulk to battle grown men down low.



I found this quote interesting simply because as their careers wore on both Jordan and now James have found increasing success by posting up their defenders. And just with great centers, the key was to surround them with guys who could hit outside shots to punish double teams.

And that's the big issue with this entire article. The 3 point shot isn't making low post players extinct. If anything, it's slowly killing the midrange jump shot. That shot is a lower percentage shot than shots in the paint and while it is (or at least should be if players today still worked on it) a better percentage shot than a three, the difference of that extra point scored on a 3 makes the long jumper a better shot statistically.

And the other thing the author seemingly misses is this - the three point shot is almost always a passive play. Yes, there are pull up threes in transition, and the Durants and Currys of the world will dribble over screens to launch a three but the vast majority of the time it's a guy camped out in the corner, on the wing or up top and waiting for a pass to come out so he can catch and shoot. By its very nature it is almost exclusively a play that depends on someone else beating their man and requiring a rotation or forcing a double team to free up an open look for three.

Strong post play GENERATES open three point looks.

There is a lack of great centers in the NBA right now compared to the last couple decades. But the author's conclusion for why is off base.
I don't think there's any question that defensive wing players have more restrictions upon their game than defensive post players, if not by the structure of the rules themselves, then by the interpretation of those rules. And if defensive players have more restrictions on them when they guard wing players, then logic would tell you that relatively speaking the post defensive players have fewer restrictions. And if the post players have fewer defensive restrictions, then the post offensive players are playing at a disadvantage relative to the offensive wing players. So, relatively speaking, offensive wing players have an advantage over offensive post players. Has this condition always occurred? Not in my recollection. It's only lately that the wing guys, the face-up guys, have an advantage relatively speaking over the low post center.

Also, let's not confuse Cousins with a low post player. How often does he post up versus start the offense from the high post? At very best, 50-50 imo. So Cousins, although he may look like a low post player, he may have the skills of a low post player, and in the olden days may have been the prototypical low post center, is not a low post center if you actually look at his game in today's world. If Cousins were born 20 years ago, would he be the prototypical low post center? Probably. I would argue that the reason he's more of a hybrid is because at the margin the 3 point line and all it's ramifications have changed the game so that he is more effective taking much of his game outside as opposed to inside.

As far as MJ and LBJ, I'd argue that their inside games was the cherry on top, not the cake. The cake brought them championships before they ever had the cherry on top. If you're game is fantastic except for one last cherry, why not finish it off?
 
#15
The best teams have the ability to score inside and outside and even from the middle. You can score from the inside from a variety of ways (low post or guys that can get to the basket like Lebron). You no longer need to score from the low post in order to win, you just have to have some way of scoring inside while also scoring from further out.

The Mid-Range game is still very important and something that guys like Dirk, Aldridge, Durant, and Duncan thrive on that helps lead their teams to win. You often here about how the mid-range game is dead in the NBA but I think that's not really true.....it's just that the mid-range game in the NBA used to be accomplished mostly by guards and now it's the SF's and especially PF's and even some centers that are shooting and making so many of the mid-range jumpers. Not many PG's can shoot from the mid-range anymore but fortunately the forwards have picked up the slack.

Seemingly most good teams are solid at scoring in at least 2 of the 3 areas if not all 3. Really the only area the Kings have done well at the past couple seasons is on the inside and that's just not going to lead to wins. One thing of note too is that when you struggle from the outside you also give up more fastbreak points. Long misses lead to long rebounds which lead to easy buckets for the other team. If the Kings improve their outside shot you'll see that the transition baskets allowed magically improves too.

One last thing, as good and talented as DeMarcus Cousins is, he's not a "once in a generation" type talent like I saw earlier in this thread. Cousins is damn good and parts of his game are a refreshing throwback to big men of the past but he's not "once in a generation". If he was the Kings would have won more games regardless of the supporting cast. Cousins is not yet at the level where he makes all of his teammates better and he's not yet the type of player that can just will his team to wins. "Once in a generation" type players don't wallow on bad teams for several years, they make massive impacts right from the start.
 

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
#16
I was expecting to have to refute some incredibly detailed advanced stat guru's mathematical model about the glory of the 3pt shot etc.. Instead I got a year old (Aug 2013) single page opinion blog from some writer at Forbes?

Ok, this can be done quickly and by cribbing over some stuff.

1) as usual for this sort of thing, it reflects the normal tendency to always view one's own age as something special and different and unique. We all at some level are eternal teenagers. I am old enough to remember the last time the center position was declared dead...it was the 1980s, just before the influx of the greatest generation of centers in NBA history. no great centers come into the league for a spell, and its obviously because the game doesn't want them anymore. As if great centers were popping up in high school and college and the NBA just wasn't drafting them or some such. Or there were a bunch of highly coordinated 7'1" guys working down at the local McDonalds because NBA scouts had been telling them sorry son, you're just too big for our league.

2) In order to make this argument then you have to stand behind the proposition that if Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson, Shaquille O'Neal, Patrick Ewing and Alonzo Mourning were all in next year's draft that they wouldn't come in and just wreck the league in epic fashion. You want to make that argument? And if you have enough brains not to attempt it, then next thing you realize is that its personnel driven. Centers don't matter as much because great ones haven't come into the league. Not because great ones have been wandering around in the league unable to make any impact. Until Cuz's emergence Dwight Howard might be the only Top 20 all time center to have entered the league in the last 15 years. Yao maybe MAYBE, but he'd be borderline Top 20 at best and with the shortened career. In order for little opinion blogs like this to be valid, you would have to argue that in fact we've got multiple Top 20 centers running around the league, but they just aren't able to have much impact now because you know, three point shot and all that.

3) As to how could we not win more games with Cousins, allow me to crib some numbers I have seen posted elsewhere. Here's how you win 28 games with a young franchise center:

Exhibit A: PER
26.1 Cousins (5th in league)
20.5 Thomas (54 starts)
19.6 Gay (55gms)
16.3 Fredette (41gms)
<----------------------------------15.0 = league average PER
14.1 Vasquez (18gms)
13.8 Evans (24 gms)
12.4 Cunningham (8gms)
11.9 Williams
11.7 Mbah a Moute (9gms)
11.4 Hayes (16gms)
11.2 Landry (18 gms)
11.1 Thompson (2007 minutes on year)
10.4 Outlaw
10.3 Patterson (17gms)
9.7 Thornton
9.7 McCallum
9.6 Acy
8.3 Salmons (18gms)
7.9 Gray
7.7 McLemore (2187 minutes on year)
2.9 Ndiaye
-0.3 Johnson (7gms)
-8.3 White (3gms)

you give him 2 above average teammates, and one half season of Jimmer, none of whom start more than 55 games. And then load him down with a giant bag of rocks, 22 of them, in one of the most chaotic seasons in recent league history. 16 of the 22 started at one point or the other in the season. The entire starting lineup at the beginning of the season beyond Ben McLemore was traded by Christmas. And speaking of Ben McLemore, he was just about the very worst major minute player in the NBA, a giant anvil sucking up ridiculous minutes and pulling the enterprise down (amongst players with 2000 or more minutes on the year, Ben was dead last in PER at 7.7, and only two other guys (Harrison Barnes and Norris Cole) were even under 10.0).
 
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#17
I don't think there's any question that defensive wing players have more restrictions upon their game than defensive post players, if not by the structure of the rules themselves, then by the interpretation of those rules. And if defensive players have more restrictions on them when they guard wing players, then logic would tell you that relatively speaking the post defensive players have fewer restrictions. And if the post players have fewer defensive restrictions, then the post offensive players are playing at a disadvantage relative to the offensive wing players. So, relatively speaking, offensive wing players have an advantage over offensive post players. Has this condition always occurred? Not in my recollection. It's only lately that the wing guys, the face-up guys, have an advantage relatively speaking over the low post center.
That's certainly a point worth discussing but it is NOT what the author was claiming. He wasn't stating that rules were relaxed on wing defenders relative to post defenders, he was claiming that post defense has gotten increasingly physical when in fact the reverse is true.

Also, let's not confuse Cousins with a low post player. How often does he post up versus start the offense from the high post? At very best, 50-50 imo. So Cousins, although he may look like a low post player, he may have the skills of a low post player, and in the olden days may have been the prototypical low post center, is not a low post center if you actually look at his game in today's world. If Cousins were born 20 years ago, would he be the prototypical low post center? Probably. I would argue that the reason he's more of a hybrid is because at the margin the 3 point line and all it's ramifications have changed the game so that he is more effective taking much of his game outside as opposed to inside.
Yes and no. Cousins is more of a true post player than Patrick Ewing or Alonzo Mourning ever were and yet they are lumped in with Shaq and Olajuwona as the great back-to-the-basket centers of the past. But in general, yeah, big guys in the NBA with low post skills are decreasing. I wouldn't dispute that. Some of them (Frye, Nowitzki, Durant, Garnett, Bosh etc) have moved primarily to being outside shooters. Although there were always those kinds of guys in the past (Robert Horry, Sleepy Sam Perkins etc) there are a lot more of them today. I think there are a lot of reasons for that. Jordan and Garnett are two reasons. MJ and Pippen showed people it was possible to dominate with a pair of skilled wings without a real big man. And Garnett showed the versatility that a seven footer could have. Post play isn't sexy. It's grinding, physical work that takes a toll and requires years to get good at. Playing on the perimeter is easier and gives you a better chance of showing up on Sportscenter. And there are probably other reasons as well. But I simply reject the notion that the advent of the three point shot eliminated true centers. Especially since the greatest era of centers happened long after the NBA borrowed the idea of the three point shot from the ABA.

As far as MJ and LBJ, I'd argue that their inside games was the cherry on top, not the cake. The cake brought them championships before they ever had the cherry on top. If you're game is fantastic except for one last cherry, why not finish it off?
Really I don't think it was the cherry on top for Jordan. When he came back from his break from the NBA he was bigger, stronger and not as quick or high flying as before. His physicality against opposing SGs wasn't a trick in the bottom of the bag, it was a major weapon and he leaned on it harder and harder each year until he retired for good. Hard to say for sure now, but I think we'll see something similar from LeBron as he uses his advantages (he has either a size, strength and/or quickness advantage over every SF in the league) in the post to create mismatches in the last third or so of his career. I think for both Jordan and James the post game starts as an addition and becomes a replacement.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#20
I've been watching basketball for a long time. Both college and NBA, and I just won't get caught up in the flavor of the month. There is no chicken or egg thing with the 3 pt shot. It was the invention of the old ABA (it actually had been around for much longer) which was looking for any gimmick available to get recognition. The NBA adopted it in 1979. Amazingly, with the addition of the 3 pt shot, scoring went down instead of up. Of course that wasn't the only reason, but it was certainly one of the main culprits. The problem with the shot, is not everyone that takes them is a good shooter. Josh Smith anyone? As for why teams are going away from the traditional center in favor of stretch fours and 7 foot dudes that camp at the three point line ready to launch, is because there just aren't enough Cousins to go around. And to be clear, even Cousins isn't cast from the same mold as Chamberlain, Russell, Moses Malone or even Shaq. Move Shaq 18 feet away from the basket on offense, and he's worthless. In many ways, Cousins is a hybrid.

When speaking of spacing, the conversation always starts at the three point line. But don't you think they spaced the floor before the 3 pt shot came into existence. Rick Barry once said that if there had been a 3 pt shot when he played, he would have led the league in scoring every year. Translation, a lot of his shots were from that distance anyway. Why? Because he could. The difference then was, that if you wern't comfortable shooting from that distance, then there was no incentive to shoot from that distance. You moved closer to the basket, and Wa La, in most cases, your shooting percentage went up. In short, you don't need a three point line to space the floor. However, as a result of the three point shot, you ended up with players taking shots that they previously wouldn't have taken. But its part of the game now and isn't going away any time soon. As for lack of low post centers, I agree with whomever mentioned one and done as one of the main reasons.

The easiest, and probably the earliest skill anyone learns, is how to shoot the basketball. Put up a hoop outside your garage and buy your 10 year old a basketball, and he'll spend hours outside shooting shot after shot. The percentage of time dedicated to shooting vrs dribbling and other basketball skills is very heavily slanted to shooting. Your not going to see a lot of 10 year old's practicing post skills. And if they're players that did most of their growing late, like Anthony Davis, or our own JT, they're going to be behind the curve in that area. I think most post skills are learned in college, and if you don't stay in college for more than one year, then the result is what you see. Back when we had a lot of your typical low post centers, every player went to school for four years. By the time they got to the NBA, they had already developed low post skills. When Cousins played in highschool, he played away from the basket more than at the basket. But at Kentucky, Calapari told him to get in the post, and the only reason he would come out of the post, would be to go to the bench. Calapari realized that with Cousins, he had something no one else had. A dominate big man that very few teams could match up with. He knew he had a terrific rebounder, but that it's very difficult to rebound from the three point line.

In the end, basketball is still basketball. What's going on now is just the latest current fad. The Spurs win, and everyone wants to build a team just like the Spurs. Not saying that's a bad idea, but the Spurs are the sum of the parts, all the way up to the GM. By the time most teams even get close to emulating the Spurs, they will have forgotten why, and a new fad will be the talk of the NBA. The question is, do you want to lead, or follow? Do want to be the innovative creator, or the cheap knock off duplicator? It's a lot easier to follow, and jump on the latest fad bandwagon. But will that win you a championship? Probably not. Fad's come and go, but solid fundamental basketball along with teamwork will always get you to the dance.
 
#21
That's certainly a point worth discussing but it is NOT what the author was claiming. He wasn't stating that rules were relaxed on wing defenders relative to post defenders, he was claiming that post defense has gotten increasingly physical when in fact the reverse is true.



Yes and no. Cousins is more of a true post player than Patrick Ewing or Alonzo Mourning ever were and yet they are lumped in with Shaq and Olajuwona as the great back-to-the-basket centers of the past. But in general, yeah, big guys in the NBA with low post skills are decreasing. I wouldn't dispute that. Some of them (Frye, Nowitzki, Durant, Garnett, Bosh etc) have moved primarily to being outside shooters. Although there were always those kinds of guys in the past (Robert Horry, Sleepy Sam Perkins etc) there are a lot more of them today. I think there are a lot of reasons for that. Jordan and Garnett are two reasons. MJ and Pippen showed people it was possible to dominate with a pair of skilled wings without a real big man. And Garnett showed the versatility that a seven footer could have. Post play isn't sexy. It's grinding, physical work that takes a toll and requires years to get good at. Playing on the perimeter is easier and gives you a better chance of showing up on Sportscenter. And there are probably other reasons as well. But I simply reject the notion that the advent of the three point shot eliminated true centers. Especially since the greatest era of centers happened long after the NBA borrowed the idea of the three point shot from the ABA.



Really I don't think it was the cherry on top for Jordan. When he came back from his break from the NBA he was bigger, stronger and not as quick or high flying as before. His physicality against opposing SGs wasn't a trick in the bottom of the bag, it was a major weapon and he leaned on it harder and harder each year until he retired for good. Hard to say for sure now, but I think we'll see something similar from LeBron as he uses his advantages (he has either a size, strength and/or quickness advantage over every SF in the league) in the post to create mismatches in the last third or so of his career. I think for both Jordan and James the post game starts as an addition and becomes a replacement.
For what it's worth, Kobe also notably worked on his post game with Hakeem some years back and I strongly believe doing so prolonged his career as a superstar. In addition, it's easy to lump guys like Dirk and LA as non-post players just because they do take and make a large number of outside shots. But in watching the games one would see that in crunch time both guys are isolated in the post and asked to score.

Perhaps even stranger is the fact that the Heat have been the team to beat the last 4 years and it's well known and often said that the way to beat them is having a good post player. But... I guess despite that it's all about the 3 point shot yo!
 
K

KingMilz

Guest
#22
Spurs

Duncan = C/PF
Shooting: Everyone aside from Splitter, Baynes

So I would say C's and 3 point shooting is mighty important considering the team that should have won the last two titles had both. The whole reason they are able to beat younger/more athletic teams like the Thunder/Heat was cause of these two factors. The only team they had issues with is another team in the Mavericks who like the Spurs had a dominant PF/C in Dirk along with a ton of 3 point shooting.
 
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#24
That's little to support some of the claims in this blog and just too many flat out wrong claims (like the physical play of the late 80's destroying the center position then ignoring that the 90's probably saw the most dominant era of centers in nba history with shaq, zo, Robinson, Ewing, Hakeem, Duncan at the end, etc). A sign of the times, an article with a predetermined thesis that ignores all facts that bring the thesis into question.

The idea that great centers are out there but not being drafted or utilized is laughable at best (which seems insinuated in the article) But we could see the next 15 years dominated by cousins, AD, Noel, and Embiid. Don't mistake the weak skills of the current centers to think suddenly the position has no value.

Just a pure opinion fluff piece that ignores that Duncan has 5 titles, shaq has 4. And Kobe's other two titles came with not one but two fairly decent "centers" (Bynum and gasol). So, other than Miami (the two with Lebron, not the one with shaq) who else won without a center? Dallas had chandler, who while not a low post threat, certainly was enormously valuable in Dallas's title as the defensive anchor in the middle.
 
#25
I will disagree with the majority here on one minor point. The illegal defense rule change does make it somewhat harder for a traditional center to score 23 plus ppg.

That said, I would almost infinitely prefer a scoring center like Cousins over a scoring pg like Kyrie.
 
#26
The center position is still very important, but the game around the center position has changed significantly. Instead of having pass first point guards playing the pick and roll game with centers, we now have first option scoring point guards who don't look for their big men as much, we have stretch 4's that slot up at the 5 spot and spot up shooters at every position. The need for a workhorse center isn't as high as it used to be so most centers are now valued more for their defense as oppose to their offense. In fact out of the 30 nba teams we are one of only 3 nba teams where the first option is their center (the other 2 being the hornets and the hawks). With that being said I would value a center who puts up 20 ppg higher than any other position simply because of how hard it is to do and the defensive competition you're going against every night.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#27
I was expecting to have to refute some incredibly detailed advanced stat guru's mathematical model about the glory of the 3pt shot etc.. Instead I got a year old (Aug 2013) single page opinion blog from some writer at Forbes?

Ok, this can be done quickly and by cribbing over some stuff.

1) as usual for this sort of thing, it reflects the normal tendency to always view one's own age as something special and different and unique. We all at some level are eternal teenagers. I am old enough to remember the last time the center position was declared dead...it was the 1980s, just before the influx of the greatest generation of centers in NBA history. no great centers come into the league for a spell, and its obviously because the game doesn't want them anymore. As if great centers were popping up in high school and college and the NBA just wasn't drafting them or some such. Or there were a bunch of highly coordinated 7'1" guys working down at the local McDonalds because NBA scouts had been telling them sorry son, you're just too big for our league.

2) In order to make this argument then you have to stand behind the proposition that if Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson, Shaquille O'Neal, Patrick Ewing and Alonzo Mourning were all in next year's draft that they wouldn't come in and just wreck the league in epic fashion. You want to make that argument? And if you have enough brains not to attempt it, then next thing you realize is that its personnel driven. Centers don't matter as much because great ones haven't come into the league. Not because great ones have been wandering around in the league unable to make any impact. Until Cuz's emergence Dwight Howard might be the only Top 20 all time center to have entered the league in the last 15 years. Yao maybe MAYBE, but he'd be borderline Top 20 at best and with the shortened career. In order for little opinion blogs like this to be valid, you would have to argue that in fact we've got multiple Top 20 centers running around the league, but they just aren't able to have much impact now because you know, three point shot and all that.

3) As to how could we not win more games with Cousins, although me to crib some numbers I have seen posted elsewhere. Here's how you win 28 games with a young franchise center:

Exhibit A: PER
26.1 Cousins (5th in league)
20.5 Thomas (54 starts)
19.6 Gay (55gms)
16.3 Fredette (41gms)
<----------------------------------15.0 = league average PER
14.1 Vasquez (18gms)
13.8 Evans (24 gms)
12.4 Cunningham (8gms)
11.9 Williams
11.7 Mbah a Moute (9gms)
11.4 Hayes (16gms)
11.2 Landry (18 gms)
11.1 Thompson (2007 minutes on year)
10.4 Outlaw
10.3 Patterson (17gms)
9.7 Thornton
9.7 McCallum
9.6 Acy
8.3 Salmons (18gms)
7.9 Gray
7.7 McLemore (2187 minutes on year)
2.9 Ndiaye
-0.3 Johnson (7gms)
-8.3 White (3gms
)

you give him 2 above average teammates, and one half season of Jimmer, none of whom start more than 55 games. And then load him down with a giant bag of rocks, 22 of them, in one of the most chaotic seasons in recent league history. 16 of the 22 started at one point or the other in the season. The entire starting lineup at the beginning of the season beyond Ben McLemore was traded by Christmas. And speaking of Ben McLemore, he was just about the very worst major minute player in the NBA, a giant anvil sucking up ridiculous minutes and pulling the enterprise down (amongst players with 2000 or more minutes on the year, Ben was dead last in PER at 7.7, and only two other guys (Harrison Barnes and Norris Cole) were even under 10.0).
Actually, I'm in agreement on some of your reasoning for winning 28 games. The bench was absolutely horrid. So how does that PER look now? :)

As far as Cousins and the 3 point line, I think that his effectiveness is reduced because of the 3 pt line and all of its ramifications. Would he be more of a post player without the 3 pt line? Probably. And playing in the post would he cause there to be more fouls called because of his post play? Probably. Does that factor into winning and losing? Absolutely. As it is now, if you're playing against the Kings, you play Cousins to take the outside 2 pt shot - first, because you won't foul him, second, because he's further from the basket, and lastly because if he makes the 2 pointer you can make up the difference by shooting in a 3 at the other end. (And with the Kings being horrid in 3 pt defense that just augments the last point).