2016 NBA Draft Discussion

#1
There isn't really a thread for discussing prospects/draft position etc. like there usually is every year, so hopefully this will serve that purpose. Now that Karl is officially gone, our new coach may have input into who we draft (in the likely outcome that we keep our pick), if he's hired before the draft.

Assuming we don't move into the top three, and stay put at either 8/9/10, some of the guys I'm particularly interested in in that range are Hield, Demetrious Jackson, Luwawu, Chriss (I know some people think he's overrated, but he's a productive 18 year old kid with very intriguing size/athelticism/skills - definitely worth a look in that range, also wouldn't be surprised if he plays SF down the road), Murray and you also have to take into account Poetl and some others.

Why aren't more people discussing Demtrious Jackson? I think his game is more suited to the NBA - sure, he's a little undersized, but not terribly so. I think he had a chance to be very good. He's an insane athlete and plays on both sides of the ball. Definitely worth consideration if it looks like Rondo won't be returning.
 
#2
Apparently the NBA is holding a coinflip tomorrow to break the tie between the Kings, Nuggets, and Bucks.

Basically, we'll all still get the same ping pong balls. But should we fail to move up in the lottery, it would determine what order we would fall in. This is HUGE for us. I hope we get lucky.
 

hrdboild

Hall of Famer
#3
There isn't really a thread for discussing prospects/draft position etc. like there usually is every year, so hopefully this will serve that purpose. Now that Karl is officially gone, our new coach may have input into who we draft (in the likely outcome that we keep our pick), if he's hired before the draft.

Assuming we don't move into the top three, and stay put at either 8/9/10, some of the guys I'm particularly interested in in that range are Hield, Demetrious Jackson, Luwawu, Chriss (I know some people think he's overrated, but he's a productive 18 year old kid with very intriguing size/athelticism/skills - definitely worth a look in that range, also wouldn't be surprised if he plays SF down the road), Murray and you also have to take into account Poetl and some others.

Why aren't more people discussing Demtrious Jackson? I think his game is more suited to the NBA - sure, he's a little undersized, but not terribly so. I think he had a chance to be very good. He's an insane athlete and plays on both sides of the ball. Definitely worth consideration if it looks like Rondo won't be returning.
Which Murray are you referring to? I think Buddy Hield, Jamal Murray, and Kris Dunn are long gone by the time we come up at 8-10 -- but guys like Dejounte Murray, Marquese Chriss, Ivan Rabb, Skal Labissiere, Jakob Poeltl, and Timothe Luwawu should go in that range. Some see Jaylen Brown slipping down after his poor showing in Cal's first round tournament loss. I'd be happy with any of those guys from where we're picking this year. There are a lot of intriguing players to discuss. I think this draft may end up being like the 2012 draft where there are a lot of productive NBA players throughout the whole first round, but they're not necessarily the names that people are talking about the most right now.
 
#5
Apparently the NBA is holding a coinflip tomorrow to break the tie between the Kings, Nuggets, and Bucks.

Basically, we'll all still get the same ping pong balls. But should we fail to move up in the lottery, it would determine what order we would fall in. This is HUGE for us. I hope we get lucky.
I'll be happy if we don't get 10th. If we do get 10th, you can be absolutely certain that one of the teams behind us will break into the top 3, leaving us without a pick.
 
#6
This is not a great draft.

But there will be a prospect who will eventually be a very good player available in the 8-10 range.

Although not a great fit next to Cousins, I like Rabb a lot. Maybe Ellenson as a guy to groom to be a stretch 4. Luwawu has 3&D potential. Brown has an NBA ready body but will he develop his shot enough to be a good compliment to Boogie? Sabonis is one of those guys that doesn't ever really jump out at me when I watch him play but he seems to find a way to be effective. Gamble on developing a kid like Labissiere or Chriss? And quite honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Buddy Hield slid when workouts start. Bigger, stronger, faster guys like Brown may entice with their greater potential leaving the Kings to snag the guy that would probably help them the most immediately.

Or maybe you trade down to get two firsts from a team like Boston or Denver. Grabbing a pair of guys out of a group that probably contains Wade Baldwin, Taurean Prince, Caris LeVert, Malik Beasley, Denzel Valentine

Or you trade the pick (by itself or packaged) for veteran help. Personally I'd rather draft well and build the team that way but I can see the logic with not gambling and getting the known quantity.
 
#7
I'll be happy if we don't get 10th. If we do get 10th, you can be absolutely certain that one of the teams behind us will break into the top 3, leaving us without a pick.
But that would be such a Kings thing to happen.

With our pick, the Bulls will select a player who will turn into one of the greatest ever.
.
 
#8
But that would be such a Kings thing to happen.

With our pick, the Bulls will select a player who will turn into one of the greatest ever.
.
I'm expecting it. Honestly, the odds don't matter, it will probably happen.

Didn't someone here calculate the odds of us dropping down the draft so many years in a row, and it was like 1% or something?
 

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#9
I'm expecting it. Honestly, the odds don't matter, it will probably happen.

Didn't someone here calculate the odds of us dropping down the draft so many years in a row, and it was like 1% or something?
Probably me. I don't remember what the odds against our poor luck were, but I do remember that we were the single unluckiest team in the lottery since the ping-pong ball era started.
 
#10
Probably me. I don't remember what the odds against our poor luck were, but I do remember that we were the single unluckiest team in the lottery since the ping-pong ball era started.
That's the beautiful thing about statistics though. If you flip a coin 6 times and it comes up heads all six times, the odds that the next flip will be tails is around 75% because the numbers always average out.

Right Capt.?


















;)
 

Glenn

Hall of Famer
#14
I know. Just having some fun with our resident statistician.

I'm not at Capt's level but I did pretty well with my cipherin'.
I will bet money that some people still don't get it.



Hmm, I found a documentary on the early years of Prince. Gotta go now. :) He's an interesting character.
 
#15
The Kings screwed themselves over by finishing 5-5. Instead of looking to pick between 5-7...we're looking to pick between 8-10. *sigh*. Kings continue to disappoint again! no shocker to anyone though.


In our range, we're probably looking at
Point Guards
  • Wade Baldwin IV
  • Demetrius Jackson
  • DeJounte Murray
Shooting Guards
  • Furkan Korkmaz
  • Denzel Valentine
  • Malik Beasely
Small Forwad
  • Jaylen Brown
  • Timothe Luwawu
  • Taurean Prince
Power Forward
  • Marquese Chriss
  • Henry Ellenson
  • Ivan Rabb
  • Domantas Sabonis
  • Deyonta Davis
  • Skal Labissiere
Center
  • Jakob Poeltl
  • Stephen Zimmerman
This is such an underwhelming list, but still lots of potential. Italicized are the guys who are on their own tier in terms of potential. Notice, there are only 4...The slashed are the guys who we probably shouldn't draft in the top 10.
 
#16
This is not a great draft.

But there will be a prospect who will eventually be a very good player available in the 8-10 range.

Although not a great fit next to Cousins, I like Rabb a lot. Maybe Ellenson as a guy to groom to be a stretch 4. Luwawu has 3&D potential. Brown has an NBA ready body but will he develop his shot enough to be a good compliment to Boogie? Sabonis is one of those guys that doesn't ever really jump out at me when I watch him play but he seems to find a way to be effective. Gamble on developing a kid like Labissiere or Chriss? And quite honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Buddy Hield slid when workouts start. Bigger, stronger, faster guys like Brown may entice with their greater potential leaving the Kings to snag the guy that would probably help them the most immediately.

This draft has more talented bigs than smalls. Would the Kings draft a PF/C after taking WCS?

Or maybe you trade down to get two firsts from a team like Boston or Denver. Grabbing a pair of guys out of a group that probably contains Wade Baldwin, Taurean Prince, Caris LeVert, Malik Beasley, Denzel Valentine

Or you trade the pick (by itself or packaged) for veteran help. Personally I'd rather draft well and build the team that way but I can see the logic with not gambling and getting the known quantity.
If the Kings end up with the 10th pick and miss out on the better prospects, I think we need to trade back. There's not really a talent gap in those names I provided above... except for Jaylen Brown.

This draft is dominated by bigs after the top 2 guys. Would the Kings draft another PF/C even after WCS? One guy I'd love to see us gamble on is Chriss.
 
#17
Only at #47 on DX at the moment I'm pretty sure Chinanu Onuaku will rise, when people realize that he has this combination:
  • 6.10", 9.2" standing reach, 250 pounds with mobility to play PF and quick jump (can actually follow perimeter players and close out to contest outside shots as he has a couple of perimeter blocks this season)
  • youngest sophomore in the country (with a lot of progress from freshman season after a stint with U19 team USA)
  • not a shooter with only .589 FT% (up from .467 as a freshman, he even shot underhand from time to time :))...well, more than half of his shots were actually jumpshots this year and he made a whopping .518% of them (up from .227). Make no mistake, he's WCS and not Boogie at the moment in terms of shooting as his range is limited, but he sure is not Drummond or Deandre. Not a slouch inside with .736% at the rim.
  • lead all Division 1 in DRtg this season, anchored top-3 defensive team in the nation, while being the best defender on that team by a margin. Plays with intensity, going after loose balls. One of the best rebounders in the nation after being just average as a freshman.
  • Can handle a bit (similar to WCS), has basic post moves and footwork - good luck sticking a wing with him (already more comfortable inside than Willie). Averaged 2.7 assists per 40 minutes (Boogie had 1.7, for example).
 
K

KingMilz

Guest
#18
Only at #47 on DX at the moment I'm pretty sure Chinanu Onuaku will rise, when people realize that he has this combination:
  • 6.10", 9.2" standing reach, 250 pounds with mobility to play PF and quick jump (can actually follow perimeter players and close out to contest outside shots as he has a couple of perimeter blocks this season)
  • youngest sophomore in the country (with a lot of progress from freshman season after a stint with U19 team USA)
  • not a shooter with only .589 FT% (up from .467 as a freshman, he even shot underhand from time to time :))...well, more than half of his shots were actually jumpshots this year and he made a whopping .518% of them (up from .227). Make no mistake, he's WCS and not Boogie at the moment in terms of shooting as his range is limited, but he sure is not Drummond or Deandre. Not a slouch inside with .736% at the rim.
  • lead all Division 1 in DRtg this season, anchored top-3 defensive team in the nation, while being the best defender on that team by a margin. Plays with intensity, going after loose balls. One of the best rebounders in the nation after being just average as a freshman.
  • Can handle a bit (similar to WCS), has basic post moves and footwork - good luck sticking a wing with him (already more comfortable inside than Willie). Averaged 2.7 assists per 40 minutes (Boogie had 1.7, for example).
Is he related to the mammoth (dude was a tank) that played in the NBA for a bit and star at Syracuse?
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#24
Well, if I were to make up a list it would look something like this: Take note that some of these players would be considered a reach at 8 to 10.

Point Guard: Personally, the only PG I'm interested in is Kriss Dunn, so I wouldn't use our pick on any of these guys.

1. Wade Baldwin: 6'3", 195 lbs, 6'10" wingspan. Baldwin is a good all around player, but not great at anything. Has good size for the position. Good defender.
2. Demetrius Jackson: 6'1", 194 lbs, 6'4.5" wingspan. Very good distributor of the ball. A bit undersized for the position. Needs to improve three point shot.
3. Tyler Ulis: 5'9", 160 lbs, 6'1.25" wingspan. Probably best player of the three, but very undersized. Good shooter, and a true pass first PG. Tough kid.

Shooting Guard: Quite a drop off after Hield and Murray. However, there could be a couple of hidden gems there.

1. Furkan Korkmaz: 6'7", 185 lbs. Really needs to get stronger, but very good athlete, excellent shooter with great lateral quickness. Needs strength and more strength. Only 17 years old as I write this, turns 18 in June. Good handles, but use a little more tightening.
2. Timothe Luwawu: 6'7" without shoes, 205 lbs, 7'2" wingspan. Elite athlete that projects to be a very good defender that can guard multiple positions. His three point shot needs to improve and his handles need work. A bit of a project, but could be a diamond in the rough.
3. Denzel Valentine: 6'6", 220 lbs, 6'10" wingspan. Terrific passer with great court vision that can play the point. Very good three point shooter and decent to good finisher. Very good ball handler. Not blessed with good lateral quickness. He struggles to keep his man in front of him.

Small Forward: Huge drop off after Simmons and Ingram. I include Brown in the hope he slides.

1. Jaylen Brown: 6'7", 222 lbs, 7'0.5"wingspan. Elite athlete who is very raw in some area's. Your betting on his potential. He could become a lock down defender. Has an NBA body and very strong. He can finish through contact. Three point shot isn't broken, but needs some work. Has decent handles.
2. Taurean Prince: 6'7", 215 lbs, 6'11.5" wingspan. Prince should end up being a solid bench player. Good defender, and decent to good outside shooter. About to turn 22 years of age.
3. Jake Layman: 6'9", 220 lbs. Projected as a 2nd round pick. However, I really, really like Layman. very good athlete with explosive leaping ability. Good outside shooter when set. Very good defender that can defend both the SF and PF positions. Very quick to the basket and good finisher. Reminds me a lot of Chandler Parsons, who was also a 2nd round pick. Keep your eye on Layman. He could go in the first round after workouts.

Power Forward: A solid group of power forwards, but none of them are elite. All of them need developing to some extent.

1. Henry Ellenson: 6'10", 231 lbs, 7'1.5" wingspan. He is the most skilled of the group. He projects to be a stretch four, but his three point shot still needs some work. Terrific passer, good ball handler and decent to good post player. Not blessed with good lateral quickness. Needs to get stronger. Not a shotblocker.
2. Ivan Rabb: 6'9.5", 215 lbs, 7'2" wingspan. Good but not an elite athlete. Very good rebounder, and finisher around the basket. Has a nice 15 to 17 foot jumpshot. Needs to add strength. Good ballhandler for his size. Improved as season went on. Decent to good defender and shotblocker.
3. Deyonta Davis: 6'10", 230 lbs, 7'1.5" wingspan. He should bring rebounding and defense right away. Offensively he's a work in progress. Very good athlete that does most of his scoring around the basket on putbacks, pick and rolls etc. Needs to develop some game away from the basket. Think project.
4. Marquese Chriss: 6'8.5", 225 lbs, 7'0" wingspan. Terrific athlete that has project written all over him. Your betting on potential. He does have a good outside shot, but offensively, other than putbacks, he has nothing else. He projects to be a good defender, but got lost too often on switches. Known to be a bit of head case as well.
5. Domantas Sabonis: 6'10", 231 lbs, 6'10.5"wingspan. Yes, that Sabonis! He may be the most ready to play of any of the players listed. He has a good overall skill level. Good rebounder and crafty scorer around the basket, but he struggles a bit when going up against bigger players. Decent outside shooter, and may eventually project to a stretch four. Not blessed with athleticism. Knows how to play the game.

Center: There's some potential at this position.

1. Jakob Poeltl: 7'1", 242 lbs, 7'1" wingspan. Poeltl is the best center in the draft, and would be a solid choice for the Kings if Hield and Dunn are gone. He's an excellent defender that holds position in the post extremely well. He's a good shotblocker, but will never lead the league in that dept. He has a solid, but not elite post game, and a nice jump shot out to 17 feet or so. He reminds me a lot of a young Bogut. He has a little nasty in him.
2. Damian Jones: 7'0", 248 lbs, 7'2" wingspan. Good athlete who can rebound and play some defense right away. Offensively he's more of a project. His ball handling and passing are a work in progress. While he's shown a little jumper in the key, and some half hooks around the basket, he's a little mechanical and seems to lack a feel for the game. Definitely a project.
3. Diamond Stone: 7'0", 255 lbs, 7'3.5" wingspan. Big man with a big body. Deceptive athlete with pretty good hops for his size. Very raw offensively and does almost all his scoring at the basket. Has the potential to be a good shotblocker and post defender. With some development he could be a starting center in a couple of years.
4. A. J. Hammons: 7'0", 278 lbs, 7'3" wingspan. Hammons will likely be a 2nd round pick, but he may be the most skilled center in the draft. Why you ask is he a 2nd round pick? Well, he's 24 years old, and is known as Mr. Hot and Cold. Hammons will come out and absolutely dominate a game. He'll look like a man among'st boys, and then in the next game, he'll be absent. He's also been plagued with injuries throughout his career. But he's very talented. He's a terrific shotblocker and can score in the post with either hand. He's also surprisingly quick laterally and has the ability to keep SF's and PF's in front of him. If his next coach has a cattle prod, who knows how good he can be.
 
#25
Does anyone have an opinion on who we could/should target with the 58th pick?
This is one of most important decisions for this team's future. :p Looking for someone, who looks like he might be an NBA player, would probably be the strategy.

Thoughts on Malik Beasley?
Mclemore with advanced handle. Could be an above average defender due to lateral quicks, but is neither big or long to be imposing on that end.

P.S. Korkmaz is already 18, otherwise he wouldn't be eligible for this draft, since his birthday is in July, and players must be at least 18 on draft day.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#26
This is one of most important decisions for this team's future. :p Looking for someone, who looks like he might be an NBA player, would probably be the strategy.


Mclemore with advanced handle. Could be an above average defender due to lateral quicks, but is neither big or long to be imposing on that end.

P.S. Korkmaz is already 18, otherwise he wouldn't be eligible for this draft, since his birthday is in July, and players must be at least 18 on draft day.
Arrrgh! Your right. I was reading an article that referred to him as being 17 years old, and didn't realize that the article was a year old. Oh well, he's still one of the younger players in the draft. I really like the kid. Add about 15 pounds of muscle on him and you might have something special. Or not!
 

hrdboild

Hall of Famer
#27
Brown has an NBA ready body but will he develop his shot enough to be a good compliment to Boogie?
The jumpshot doesn't look like a reliable weapon yet, but he's only played one season in college. It's important to note that a 4th year senior shot an astounding 46% on 322 three point attempts this year, but that same player shot 24% on 80 attempts as a freshman. Development is relative and unless you think the shot is broken, you can project improvement in a younger player that should be part of your evaluation. I was similarly concerned about Jaylen Brown's jumper, so I looked into it a little more closely. If you look at his splits this year, the first and last months of the season were his worst by far -- a combined 6 for 33 in 11 games in March and November. Between those two months he was 24 for 69 in 23 games in December/January/February which is a respectable 35%. I don't expect him to come out of the blocks shooting the lights out, but I don't think it's a long-term concern. He should be able to add range and consistency in time.

I like to look at Free Throw rate for college wings because that's usually an indication of how aggressively they attack the basket. When the shot isn't falling, an NBA scorer needs to be able to draw fouls and get to the line and in that regard Jaylen Brown looks like he's in good shape. James Harden is the gold standard of drawing fouls in the NBA right now and his college Free Throw Rate over two seasons at ASU was .600. Jaylen Brown wasn't far off that mark this season at Cal with a Free Throw Rate of .574.

Here are some other college wings to compare to:

Rudy Gay (2 seasons, UCONN): .353
Paul George (2 seasons, Fresno State): .369
Dwyane Wade (2 seasons, Marquette): .421
Andrew Wiggins (1 season, Kansas): .538
DeMar DeRozan (1 season, USC): .401
Harrison Barnes (2 seasons, UNC): .313
Jimmy Butler (3 season, Marquette): .776 <= Not a typo o_O
 
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#28
FTAs/FGAs ratio is not a good indicator of ability to attack the basket as fouls are rare on 3pt attempts. FTs/2ptFGs is much better, though Brown looks impressive in that metric as well, so just a note :)

Cali this year was least passing team in the country, even edging out perennial leader in this category, Calipari's disciples. So Brown's low efficiency can be explained by the fact, that he had to create for himself basically every time, but low efficiency is always a point of concern. (for this reason I don't rate Dejounte Murray, who looks too much like another Huskie, Wroten) As for shooting in HS it's never been a good indicator as was once again proven by Winslow.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#29
FTAs/FGAs ratio is not a good indicator of ability to attack the basket as fouls are rare on 3pt attempts. FTs/2ptFGs is much better, though Brown looks impressive in that metric as well, so just a note :)

Cali this year was least passing team in the country, even edging out perennial leader in this category, Calipari's disciples. So Brown's low efficiency can be explained by the fact, that he had to create for himself basically every time, but low efficiency is always a point of concern. (for this reason I don't rate Dejounte Murray, who looks too much like another Huskie, Wroten) As for shooting in HS it's never been a good indicator as was once again proven by Winslow.
I watched Brown play quite a bit this season. And your right, he was left to create for himself way too often. His handles are decent and in the open court, he's got to be one of the best in college last season, but his ability to free himself up still needs a lot of work. That said, he did draw a lot of fouls when going to the basket since he's not afraid of contact. I don't think his outside shot is broken, it just needs some tweeking, and a lot of practice. Browns not my first choice, but if he's sitting there at eight, which he won't be, I'm taking him on potential alone.

Wroten is one of those guys that I thought would improve his jumpshot once in the NBA. Doesn't look like it. Some players just don't have the touch, or a feel for shooting. Don't know why. Must be genetic.....
 
#30
By the way, the NBA approved Thon Maker for the draft. So he's another potential pick, though I honestly have no idea where he'll go. He's not ready for the NBA and most websites are projecting him as an early second rounder, however I would be very very surprised if he isn't taken in the first round. Some team will fall in love with the potential. He's also very smart so he will be able to sell himself at interviews. I don't know how I feel about him - I do like his size and potential a lot, but I wish we could have seen him play a year of college ball. The group workouts will be very important for him. Very interested to see how he does.