I accidentally used age 25 instead of 24. There are no major differences between the two seasons for the players. If I had used 24 instead, it would actually strengthen my argument more regarding this specific class. No jumps for Frye or Paul.
I'm going to examine the 2005 NBA draft class. It came at random picking. I'll examine the stats of the top 15 draft picks at age 25(which is the age I referenced in my argument) then compare it to their career averages up until the age of 30(common age of peak/start of decline). I will put in
blue the players who have had at least +5ppg, +5%FG , or +3apg jumps. Meanwhile, I put players who decline by -3ppg, -3%FG, or -1.5apg in
red. Players who make reasonable improvements or declines will not be colored. [p.s.The reason why I have -3ppg instead of -5ppg is because it's much easier to play worse than it is to play better.]
1.
Andrew Bogut
- (Age 25) 32.3mins: 15.9pts/10.2rebs/2.R5blks/1.8asts on 52/0/62.9
- (26-30) 28.0mins: 8.5pts/9.4rebs/2.0blks/2.1asts on 52.8/0/45.1
2. Marvin Williams
- 26.3mins: 10.2pts/5.2rebs/0.8blks/1.2asts on 43.2/38.9/78.8
- 26.9mins: 9.4pts/5.4rebs/0.6blks/1.3asts on 43.3/36.4/80.8
3. Deron Williams
- 36.9mins: 18.7pts/10.5asts/4rebs/1.2stls on 46.9/37.1/80.1
- 34.8mins: 17.4pts/7.9asts/3.3rebs/1.1stls on 42.5/35.6/84
4. Chris Paul
- 36.0mins: 15.9pts/9.8asts/4.1rebs/2.4stls on 46.3/38.8/87.8
- 34.4mins: 18.9pts/9.9asts/4.1rebs/2.3stls on 47.5/37.0/88.0
5. Raymond Felton
- 33.0mins: 12.1pts/5.6asts/3.6rebs/1.5stls on 45.9/38.5/76.3
- 31.2mins: 11.9pts/6.0asts/2.8rebs/1.3stls on 41.6/33.7/78.6
6.
Charlie Villanueva
- 23.7mins: 11.9pts/4.7rebs/0.7blks/0.7asts on 43.9/35.1/81.5
- 15.7mins: 7.8pts/3.2rebs/0.5blks/0.5asts on 41.2/36.2/67.9
7. Channing Frye
- 11.8mins: 4.2pts/2.2rebs/0.3blks/0.3asts on 42.3/33.3/72.2
- 28.7mins: 11.4pts/5.7rebs/0.9blk/1.3asts on 43.3/38.9/83.5
8. Yaroslav Korolev, bust. was in the league for for 2 years and never saw an NBA floor after age 19.
9. Antoine Wright
- 20.8mins: 6.5rebs 2.8rebs 1.1asts 0.4stls on 40.6/33.5/68.6
- Out of the league after age 25, spent 7 games with the Kings.
10. Joey Graham
- 8.7mins: 3.6pts 1.8rebs 0.4asts
- 16mins: 5.9pts 2.8rebs 0.5asts
11. Hakim Warrick
- 23.4mins: 11.4pts/4.7rebs/0.7asts on 50.2/0/70.4
- 19.9mins: 9.2pts/4.0rebs/0.8asts on 47.9/0/72.3
12. Nate Robinson
- 19.9mins: 10.1pts/2.9asts/2rebs on 43.6/39/74.6
- 20.7mins: 9.9pts/3.3asts 1.8rebs on 41.6/36.3/80.3
13. Jarrett Jack
- 33.1mins: 13.1pts/4.1asts/1.1stl on 45.3/35.3/85.2
- 27.4mins: 11.2pts/4.6asts/0.7stl on 44.2/37.1/84.8
14. Francisco Garcia
- 17.8mins: 6pts/2.6rebs/1.1asts on 42.9/35.6/83.3
- 24.7mins: 10.1pts/2.8rebs/1.5asts on 44.3/37.1/80.9
I ended up doing the top 20, and unfortunately, a bunch of guys from this class were affected by injuries, so I left them out. They include Webster, Diogu, May, McCants, Granger, Bynum, and more.
Now analyzing the stats. Out of 14, there's only
1 player who made a significant numerical jump in their game after age 25, and it Channing Frye. It's a significant jump because he went from a backup player to a rotational starter. However, I don't think I'd consider it a large jump. 4/14 of these players actually declined from their stats they put up age 25. Bogut's single major injury wasn't enough for me to put him as an exception, although you could argue it has affected him. Simply put, these players got worse after age 25. The rest of them? Marvin Williams has been about the same. Hasn't necessarily improved or declined. CP3 had a big scoring jump, but it wasn't significant enough, age 25 is actually his lowest career scoring ppg season after having several 20ppg seasons. In this span, he went from a top 10 PG to a top 5 PG which is a reasonable jump. Same with Deron Williams. Went from a top 10 PG to a top 5 PG which is a good, but also reasonable jump. Felton has relatively stayed the same, no real improvement or decline. Joey Graham slightly improved, but not by much. Went from a 13th man to a 10th man, nothing out of the realm. Warrick didn't improve nor decline. Neither did Robinson and Jack who stayed the same. Garcia has a big numbers jump in PPG, which is more reflective of his MPG increase than anything. He went from a backup SF to a rotational player which is a reasonable improvement.
It's hard to argue this. It's even extremely hard to find any players who make grand improvements after age 25. It's extremely common that where they are at age 25, is not far off of where they will be in the future. A few times, you can expect reasonable improvements like Chris Paul did going from a top 10 PG to a top 5 PG. Or like Cisco going from a backup SF to a rotational player. HOWEVER, in this case, I found
no players who made huge jumps in their games. I found no one who went from a backup player to a good starting player. Nor did I find anyone who went from a solid starting player to a great player. why? because it's extremely rare. Most of these players barely got any better than they already were.
I didn't have to do this, but I did. I never said players can't improve. I said players don't make big improvements after a certain age. I have no clue how that is outrageous or egregious when it's a consensus in the NBA. I don't even know why this was made out to be such a big deal. Imo, the age I set was
24, someone else might differ, but the argument still remains.
Go back and re-read my argument. I feel like you misinterpreted something. I said players can only get so much better after a certain age, in which I referenced age
24.
I said a
24yearold who's a 40/100 would have a peak of 60/100. Someone who's a 70/100 could have a peak of 90/100. These are extremely favorable numbers for them. As I analyzed the 2005 class, most didn't even have the cap of 20pt jumps. In fact, only about 2 of them did.. CP3 and Williams.