[Grades] Grades, Kings vs. Rockets 10-18-17

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#31
Can you explain this a bit more if possible?
When watching the game I noticed (of course) that the Rockets got a lot of free throws, and that we didn't. But looking at the box score later, I was surprised to find that the total number of fouls committed by the two teams was not hugely different, and instead what was more salient was the average number of free throws the Rockets got per foul the Kings committed, and vice versa. So I calculated those numbers and compared it to a league average over the last several years. The Rockets were awarded almost 1.5 free throws per foul on average (well above the league average) and we were awarded fewer than 0.7 free throws per foul on average (well below the league average). The willingness for the officials to give the Rockets free throws was a major factor in the game since we actually outshot them otherwise.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#32
When watching the game I noticed (of course) that the Rockets got a lot of free throws, and that we didn't. But looking at the box score later, I was surprised to find that the total number of fouls committed by the two teams was not hugely different, and instead what was more salient was the average number of free throws the Rockets got per foul the Kings committed, and vice versa. So I calculated those numbers and compared it to a league average over the last several years. The Rockets were awarded almost 1.5 free throws per foul on average (well above the league average) and we were awarded fewer than 0.7 free throws per foul on average (well below the league average). The willingness for the officials to give the Rockets free throws was a major factor in the game since we actually outshot them otherwise.
So Capt. Factorial, are those stats statistically significant or not?
 

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#35
So Capt. Factorial, are those stats statistically significant or not?
I can't believe you baited me into actually calculating this...technically the test I would normally use to calculate significance of ratios isn't right because these ratios can (and do) go over 1. But a quick fudge of that test suggests they would not reach statistical significance, no. Then again, you wouldn't really expect that out of one game.
 
#38
Willie - Grade: B I thought Willie's stat line was a little misleading but encouraging nonetheless. If he can gain consistency with that left hand flip and shooting the ball out to 18 feet then he suddenly expands his game beyond a dunker and lob finisher. The Rockets were daring him to score. They were leaving him unguarded simply because they did not see him as legitimate threat to score. It was nice however that Willie just took what the defense gave him. In other instances where opponents are going to play him straight up with conventional D those same quality shots are unlikely to be there. On defense he challenged a few shots but still does not play with enough presence in the paint. This is a game for Willie to build upon. Perhaps if Willie gets more involved in the offense and touches it more like he did last night it will inspire him defensively? I can hope anyway.

De'Aaron Fox - Grade A- I don't think I am exaggerating when I say De'Aaron Fox is the fastest player in the NBA, faster than Wall, faster than Isaiah. Now perhaps there is someone who could tie or beat him sprinting from one end of the court to another. But if you combine his length and speed with the ball then he is the fastest player in the NBA. He's a blur and he makes guys with decent speed look slow. With his speed and juke moves it is EASY for him to get clean looks at the hoop. All he has to do is get a head of steam going to the cup, force the defender to retreat then stop on a dime for clear skies. This bodes well because although his outside shot is his current weakness, getting open shots is NOT a problem. The other aspect of his game that impresses me and this stood out in the first preseason game is he can go to his right hand when he needs to in traffic. Fox was checking Ariza for a while and did not seem overwhelmed guarding a SF hinting at his versatility and skill. I only knock the grade down with a minus because he missed a couple of easy 15 foot shots I know he would like to have back.

Buddy Hield - Grade B - I love Buddy's activity level. He's non-stop. He's better defensively with his footwork and his fight. Buddy is like any shooter subject to hot streaks. When he sees that first one go in clean, then he can be off to the races. This is the nature of a player like Buddy, so fans may as well get used to 1-5 FG stretches followed by 12 points in 2 and one half minutes. Hill and Fox are going to look to get him in the ball when he gets hot. They are going to ride the hot hand smartly so. 15 to 20 games into the season the comfort level between these new teammates is going to be a lot higher. I see Buddy as the player likely to have the highest usage rate on the team, our probable leading scorer. I was penciling him in for 15-20 PPG this year. I think I will probably lean towards the higher end of this range if he is able to do a better job attacking the rim and getting to the free throw line. Buddy shot zero free throws last night. To be a prolific scorer, you cannot shoot 17 FGAs without getting to the line once.

Random Notes:

- If Vince Carter is going to be effective part of the rotation, which I strongly doubt, it is going to be as a back-up PF. I can see him semi-effective in this role because he will be able to free up against less mobile players to face up and get open threes. The absence of Z-Bo opened up a few minutes for him last night. If both these guys are available I don't see Carter getting off the bench.

- Perhaps the outcome would have been different if Temple was not 1-6 from 3s. He got a lot of open looks.

- Papa G can play as well as Oven Mitts Koufos did last night. We need an enforcer in the back-up center role. Someone who is going to make his presence known. I have kind of seen enough of Koufos to know he is one of these players at his best who is going to help you lose respectably. It is hard to overcome bad hands and bad touch and be a player who can consistently help you win.

- Justin Jackson shows pretty good poise for a rookie. The defensive issues that I thought he had going back to the Spurs pre-season game in which he was posterized twice may have been overstated. He has some fight to him and seems to generally know where to be on the court most of the time.
 
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#39
Given our expected struggles on offense this season, it would be great if Fox perfected the pullup midrange jumper in transition ala Westbrook/ Beno Udrih. With his speed he can get that shot anytime he wants.

I liked that Buddy had to work on some 1 on 1, midrange type plays to get himself going. That will be very useful experience and practice for him. He is expending a lot of energy running around the court though, but it isn't often leading to open shots for him. I'd like to see us start running some simple screen action to get him shots coming off curls.
 
#41
Is Hill needed going forward. He’s solid, and did solid things last night, but in a bygone season I can’t help but wanting Fox AND Mason our there

Having Fox start and play 30 minutes a game would make it a more enticing watch
 

gunks

Hall of Famer
#43
Is Hill needed going forward. He’s solid, and did solid things last night, but in a bygone season I can’t help but wanting Fox AND Mason our there

Having Fox start and play 30 minutes a game would make it a more enticing watch
Hill was signed before Fox and Mason showed that they could hang with NBA players. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see him traded by the deadline. KK might be gone too, I know he was grumbling about wanting to be traded, I could see Vlade obliging him.
 
#44
Is Hill needed going forward. He’s solid, and did solid things last night, but in a bygone season I can’t help but wanting Fox AND Mason our there

Having Fox start and play 30 minutes a game would make it a more enticing watch
Hill was the primary guy holding the young ones accountable last night. Especially Willie towards the end of the game. I'd like him to stick around at least a season or two to teach these guys the right way to play the game. Plus, hes pretty damn good!
 
#45
Is Hill needed going forward. He’s solid, and did solid things last night, but in a bygone season I can’t help but wanting Fox AND Mason our there

Having Fox start and play 30 minutes a game would make it a more enticing watch
I'd rather hold on to him until the off season. See if we can get a 3-5 ish year younger vet for him from someone close to contention. He makes a ton of loot so may have to eat some bad salary. But we don't need any more kids, so middling aged guy for him later who has some upside if we can get it.
 
#46
Is Hill needed going forward. He’s solid, and did solid things last night, but in a bygone season I can’t help but wanting Fox AND Mason our there

Having Fox start and play 30 minutes a game would make it a more enticing watch
I want Hill to be here at least for this year. Even if he isn't the player we all want to see I think he is still a massive asset for Fox and Mason's development. Despite the promise that both Fox and Mason showed so far, they still have their weaknesses and bad habits. Having a guy out there, who while not being a star player, doesn't make many mistakes should pay dividends in the long run. Hill should also prevent us from getting blown out most nights. Being on a team that is constantly losing by 20-30 every night is a disaster for player development. The perfect example of what happens when both of these things happen is Marquees Chriss. He had lots of bad habits going into his rookie season, yet had no one in front of him to show him the ropes. He played big minutes every night and the Suns lost many, many games by big amounts. Fast forward one year and his bad habits are all still there. Also his confidence has gone down as evident by his much higher reluctance to shoot the ball. It's gotten to the point where the Suns cut his minutes and stopped starting him. I hope Mason eventually plays solid minutes, but I love what I saw last night. Rookies playing with great vets, exciting basketball, and us in the game all the way to the end. That's what I think helps us more in the long run. Trade Hill next season or the trade deadline after, but just not right now.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#47
Fox A- - loved his game last night! He showed everything i wanted to see from him - quickness, speed, ball handling, attacking the basket, finishing around the rim, passing, making good decisions (!). He seemed very mature and smart out there... He had 2 bad passes, but overrall, he had great debut. Teammates really trust him. Hope he will continue on that level
Hill B - he stepped up with points when his teammates struggled. Good game, just like i expected from experienced player like him.
Hield B - he was struggling in the first half, but he was taking good shots and showing some effort in defense. It paid off later, i love Buddy when he is on fire.
Temple B- - great steals, good defense and ball distributing, but that wasn't his shooting night. That type of performance is what i expect from him, just with hitting 1/2 more threes.
Malachi C- - unfortunately, airball three made him pretty unconfident
Vince C+ - good shooting, but few bad reactions in the 4th quarter. However, i like his mentoring during the game and i feel more confident when he is on the court.
Jackson C+ - his stats weren't impressive, but few shoots just fell off. He played good defense with no bad decisions in the offense.
Skal B- - active on rebounding, good midrange shoots, protecting the rim better than usual, and solid defense overrall. It's just, his decision making are questionable sometimes. PF shouldn't have 5 turnovers.
WCS A- - he started awful, 2 bad shoots, offensive foul, turnover, but then he turned the things around all over. Active on offensive rebound, protecting the rim, hitting few midrange shoots, making some left sky hooks, playing with a lot of energy... That's WCS i want to see more often.
Koufos C - he is one smart bigman, but he didn't play smart at all last night. He was solid on rebound, but few bad shoots and thats pretty much all he did last night.

Overrall, im very pleased.
In regards to Koufos, they had him playing in the high post like Willie. That's simply not one of his strengths. I thought he really struggled out there, mainly because he's not a good ballhandler, and doesn't have the quickness that Willie has, nor Willie's passing skills. Not sure what the future holds for him if they continue to use him that way. He looked like a fish out of water at times.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#49
He needs to tighten up on defense Capela was abusing him sometimes but still great game.
If your guarding Capela, and Harden drives into the lane, what do you do if your Willie? If you stay home, It's likely a layup for Harden. If you stay home and then step in at the last minute to try and block the shot, it's likely a layup for Harden, and a "And One". If you leave Capela and come out to stop the ball, someone else has to switch to guard Capela, if no one switches, or is late switching, then you get the result you got last night. I'm not pointing fingers or absolving anyone, what I'm saying is that Harden and Capela run that play extremely well and it's not that easy to stop, especially when you have a lot of inexperienced players on the floor.

I thought the few times Capela had the ball in a post up and was guarded by Willie, that Willie did a decent to good job on him. According to my notes that happened three times, and Capela scored two of those three times, but all three were highly contested by Willie. My complaint was that twice Willie got caught ball watching, lost sight of Capela who twice scored on backdoor's.
 
#50
When watching the game I noticed (of course) that the Rockets got a lot of free throws, and that we didn't. But looking at the box score later, I was surprised to find that the total number of fouls committed by the two teams was not hugely different, and instead what was more salient was the average number of free throws the Rockets got per foul the Kings committed, and vice versa. So I calculated those numbers and compared it to a league average over the last several years. The Rockets were awarded almost 1.5 free throws per foul on average (well above the league average) and we were awarded fewer than 0.7 free throws per foul on average (well below the league average). The willingness for the officials to give the Rockets free throws was a major factor in the game since we actually outshot them otherwise.
Rockets are a 3pt shooting team, but they did a great job penetrating inside. Kings did not do that at all with the exception of Fox. Even when Fox drove, he tried his best to avoid contact. Kings are going to be in big trouble this year if we can't consistently get inside or even draw fouls. Capela and NeNe were their only paint protectors too.

Kings about to be last in FTA until Randolph comes back...which might be the next game. Our team is capable of drawing fouls, but they're just too young and inexperienced to know how. If Skal reaching his ceiling, I expect him to get to the line at least 5-6 times a game. I'm fine with Fox's finesse finishes because I wouldn't want him to wrecklessly attack like Westbrook. Just not an effective way of playing
 
#51
Hill was signed before Fox and Mason showed that they could hang with NBA players. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see him traded by the deadline. KK might be gone too, I know he was grumbling about wanting to be traded, I could see Vlade obliging him.
I do not believe we can do without Hill and Koufos at this time n the season. Let us lett things work themselves out before losing any talent.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#54
I can't believe you baited me into actually calculating this...technically the test I would normally use to calculate significance of ratios isn't right because these ratios can (and do) go over 1. But a quick fudge of that test suggests they would not reach statistical significance, no. Then again, you wouldn't really expect that out of one game.
Thanks for doing the calculation!:)
 
#55
- Papa G can play as well as Oven Mitts Koufos did last night. We need an enforcer in the back-up center role. Someone who is going to make his presence known. I have kind of seen enough of Koufos to know he is one of these players at his best who is going to help you lose respectably. It is hard to overcome bad hands and bad touch and be a player who can consistently help you win.
Koufos had a couple of bad plays but Fox throwing him the ball like he's Deandre Jordan isn't Kosta's fault. Papa isn't even in the same stadium as far as defense and all around BBIQ goes. Papa gives up all sorts of easy buckets because he just doesn't know where to be yet. Kosta is an average basketball player and Papa is a massive negative at the moment...and I'm a fan of both guys but lets not pretend that Papa is better at anything other than shooting.