How the Kings Can Win 40 Games (Part II)

#1
(Note: This is continuation of one post since there is a 2000 word limit. See Part I first.)

Bogdan: I don’t have a lot to say about Bogdan other than he is an extremely fundamentally sound. The guy is highly efficient in his expenditure of energy on the court to be where he needs to be and make the best and most efficient play.


Stardom is based on creating space to get high percentage looks. This is the unknown as he enters into his rookie season against better competitors. How well will Bogdan create space against more size and quickness? The promising aspect is Bogdan does NOT require a lot of space to make shots and plays. I am dubious of his purported near 7’0” wingspan. If he has this type of length that will make his transition easier and allow him to steal minutes at the three.


There are reasons for optimism in addition to his fundamentals and economy of movement. The size of his contract is telling. This is vote of confidence from Vlade includes Peja as a former star win the league with similar set of playing attributes. He knows what it takes to create and make shots. If he did not give his blessing than Vlade does not give 3 years and 29 million. Moreover Bogdan is not a soft Euro softie. He moves his feet to deny penetration. He does not shy from contact. I am sick of watching passive players who do not command their space on the floor.


I don’t know if Bogdan will be a star. I can tell you he is not going to be soft. He is going play like a man in a man’s league. I don’t think he will intimidated. He is not Stauskas 2.0. Bogdan has something to prove after proving everything overseas. I would not bet against him. The pairing of Fox and Bogdan off the bench is intriguing. Both can play with and without the ball. This projects to be a dynamic pairing because both are comfortable initiating or curling from the weak side.


Part of the reason the Kings were so generous to Bogdan is because he projects as a guy who will make plays for teammates, who will prevent the offense from getting bogged down. After bearing witness to Ben and Affalo and Marco, this will be a reprieve for long suffering fans. A guy who is not clueless and helpless with 5 seconds on the shot clock. Bogdan is tough and savvy and creative. Welcome aboard, kid.


De’Aaron Fox: I think that Fox has more star potential coming out of Kentucky than Boogie did coming out of Kentucky. Say what you want negatively about Boogie, and personally I have said plenty over the years, but he is a three-time All Star and the most talented center in the NBA with Karl Anthony Towns. Fox can be better. He can do more. The only thing I saw preventing Boogie from stardom going back to before that draft was NOT his attitude, it was his conditioning. He was fat and remained fat for his first five years in the league. It was not until his 6th or 7th year that we saw Boogie lean down to where he needed to be and run the court more consistently. This was reflected in his efficiency where he finally hit my benchmarks of 55% true shooting and better than 1:1 assist to turnover before his trade at midseason.


When you get winded you take bad shots. When you get winded you are more prone to bad decisions with the ball. When you have your wind you are more discerning. This is all water under the bridge, but if Boogie would have took his conditioning and diet more seriously, he could have shed the baby fat sooner, perhaps we would not be having this discussion. But Boogie had issues, that haunted hm, that haunted the team and haunted the fan base, and precipitated his trade after tumultuous but memorable run.


De’Aaron Fox has NO such demons. At least none that we know about.


What he does possess is demonic speed. Speed kills. Fans witness to dominance of Isaiah, that is, most everyone reading this, already know this. When the point of attack consistently gains an edge with burst or blow by, good things happen. The defense collapses and rotates and someone is left open. A lane is unguarded. A shooter is unguarded. A lob pass is there.


Where Isaiah and Fox differ is length and shooting ability. Where they are similar is speed and scoring instincts. And this is where the four teams who passed on Fox (76ers, Lakers, Suns, Celtics) may come to regret their decision. Fox is an unselfish player. But he is also a natural scorer. Fox is going to be a 20 PPG scorer in this league. He is relentless in his attack of the rim. If you give him a lane he is going to take it. He is not afraid of contact. He is also able to stop on a dime on float the ball up with touch.


If De’Aaron had an outside shot he would have been the #1 pick in the draft. He didn’t have one and that is why he fell. Boogie has a bad attitude and that is why he fell. I believe more in the ability of Fox to become a three point threat than Boogie to become a model of decorum, sportsmanship and leadership.


I will say it now: I think De’Aaron Fox will be one of the best players in franchise history. I don’t see anything preventing him from greatness. Is John Wall a great player? I guess it is debatable. Let’s be generous and say he is. John Wall is a 32% three point shooter over his 7-year career. Fox will be at least this “good” from deep. Where Fox projects as more effective is with his unorthodox lefty game, floater game, and attack mode at the rim. If Fox can make his outside shot, something that was only an issue in limited samples size in freshman season, he projects only below Steph Curry and Russell Westbrook in 3-4 years of seasoning.


George Hill: What you need to know about George Hill is that he is Coach Pop favorite player to coach and Pop coached Timmy, David Robinson, Manu and Tony Parker. I envision Hill as a Darren offensively who is a far superior defender.


He is going to cut off penetration at the point of attack where Collision played a lot of matador at the top of the key. George Hill knows where to be on the floor at all times. He knows where his teammates should be at all times. And he will be vocal enough to let them know when they are not where they are suppose to be.


George Hill ranked 6th among ALL PGs in real plus minus with a RPM of 3.75. This was behind only Chris Paul, Curry, Westbrook, Kyle Lowry and Mike Conley. George Hill was ahead of Lillard, Kemba Walker, John Wall, Kyrie Irving and Isaiah Thomas in RPM. This stat has something to do with the quality of teammates, but still there is an attempt to adjust for quality teammates and opponents.


While even the best stats are imperfect, his ranking shows the contract VLADE shelled out (2/40) and the esteemed opinion of the best coach in the NBA is supported quantitatively.


Where George Hill will prove to be most valuable I think is crunch time. Providing stability and organization and execution of Joerger’s designed set. Secondarily, our young PGs will learn by osmosis through his example and mentorship. Whereas Boogie did not have a meaningful veteran upon to lean upon for support and guidance, Fox and Mason will have one of the best in the league. This is how to finally get it right on paper after getting it wrong on so long.


Skal: I have pontificated thoroughly about Skal already. But as the best Kings fan in the stratosphere I will add the following. When a big player is comfortable facing up or back to the basket or catching on the run, how can you not project good things? Very good things? Very future all-star things?


I was never a fan of Jason “Scrub” Thompson when fans vehemently defended him out of misplaced sentiment. Since then the perpetual mouth breather was cut from three teams (76ers, Raptore, Warriors) and disappeared to Japan where he is probably complaining about “bad calls”. Remember this is a guy who would launch uncontested missiles from 15 feet, barrel over his defender without rhyme or reason, and trip over his own two feet when catching the ball in transition if a guard was foolish enough to trust him with the ball. This is what fans have been bear witness to, the incompetence, the futility, the hopelessness.


This has changed with the Prospects of Haitian Sensation.


Even a guy like Boogie is prone to misfortune and misadventure when he catches the ball on the run on the break. Even Boogie is mistake prone when he puts the ball down around guards and forwards from the perimeter. Skal projects as a guy who can do it all where the majority of bigs are going to fumble, stumble, get flummoxed and flabbergasted. When you have a face up game and post up game and agility and balance to catch the ball on the move the sky is the limit! This is why Peja referred to him as a player with Chris Bosh skills.


There is a problem if majority of minutes going to Zack instead of my main man Skal. Zack is a problem waiting to happen. We know Joerger has a propensity for the vets. We know of their history together. Here is the potential problem: Does Joerger see who Randolph is today? Or does he see who he remembers? Is he stuck in the past and fond memories with the Grizzlies or does he acknowledge the declining skill set?


Zach Randolph was 49% true shooting last year on 29% usage. That is a pathetic number on a high percentage of possessions. Zach is at least smart with the ball (unlike Boogie for most of his career). He doesn’t turn it over but he does not score efficiently. Randolph had a 13.5% assist percentage versus only a 8.6% turnover rate last year. That's good. But his dominance out of the low block was FAR from dominant. More like meandering and pedantic.


So if the Kings are going to win 40 games, it is going to be because Skal outplays Zach and forces the coach to play him 30 MPG, not the other way around. If the Kings are going to win 40 games, it is because Boogie was in Willie’s way. Willie has been freed (Free Willie) and this is reflected in his near double double production and overtaking Koufos instead of mopping up behind him.


If the Kings are going to win 40 games, it is because they are led by a dynamic and relentless backcourt, the strength of their team, with speed, shooting, savvy and clutch shots. The foursome of Hill, Buddy, Fox and Bogdan cedes no quarter, takes no backseat, and makes the job of teammates along the frontline easier and fun.


This is a season of a lot of questions and immense challenges against far more established and proven teams in the mighty West. This is also a season of potential. There is cohesiveness and synergy that can make up for lack of experience and proven stardom. There is NO reason to cede to teams in transition like the Mavs, Jazz, Clips, Pelicans, Suns and Lakers. There is NO reason to fear aging teams like the Spurs and Grizzlies. There is NO reason to cower against Thunder, Wolves and Warriors who may expect to casually show up and win.


The Kings can shock the NBA if they play to their maximum potential led by one of the best young coaches in the NBA. If two of three starting positions along frontline are answered affirmatively. If Hill and Buddy plays as well as they are capable as high usage players. If Bogdan and Fox challenge for ROY. If Willie proves the second half of last season was not a fluke, but a forecast of what is come. If our veteran continent of Temple, Koufos, Vince and Randolph provide a stabilizing influence to prevent long losing streaks.


The best win to win in 2018-19 and beyond is to win now. There is NO reason to postpone success. Training camp opens in one week. I am ready. I know the fans are ready. I think the players and coaches are ready too. It is the job of the coach of this team to get the most out of this team and put his players in the best position to succeed. It is the job of the players to play smart and relentlessly with hustle and heart every second they are on the floor. It is the job of the fans who go to the games to make the environment hostile to the opponent and inspiring to the good guys.


It is time to go to work. It is time to do this. It is time to show Boogie we don’t need you and we are better off without you. Thanks for the memories but we are better off without you. It is time for Vlade to be vindicated. It is time for Joerger to coach better than ever. What you did in the past is irrelevant. Joerger needs to prove himself all over again and I am waiting to be impressed.


It is time for castoffs and unproven players to prove themselves. It is time for new reputations to be earned. It is time to rise from the ashes and set ablaze to the frustrations of the past. It is time to win. Just win baby. And if it turns into another sub 30 win season, can we at least beat the Lakers 4-0? Success comes in many forms, and Magic with a frown instead of famous ear to ear smile as the final buzzer sounds with De’Aaron Fox dribbling out the clock is one of my definitions of simple but satisfying success.


Sports and NBA and competitive tends to go in cycles. The Kings have been down for a long time. But being due is not basis enough. Success has to be earned. I think the Kings have the players and coaches in place to earn their share of the pie, their slice of success. I don’t know how big of a slice it will be, but I am fascinated to find out.

Let's do this,
Blob
 
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#2
Yeah brother. I don't think it's that hard to be competitive. I think we can be solid at every position. Though I'm high on JJ and Skal, and think Koufos is solid if WCS isn't ready to step in (and WCS looks encouraging on recent instagram clips)
 
#5
I think the Kings will be competitive and fun to watch but will fall short more often than not. The stretched out schedule also doesn't favor us since there will be less of those wins when catching a tired team. I say we win 29 games.
 
#7
I want the Kings to get the #1 overall pick this year. However, if us winning 40 games means that Fox is the next coming of Curry/Westbrook, and Skal looks like a legitimate franchise player, then I'm all down for this scenario.
 
#8
Yeah brother. I don't think it's that hard to be competitive. I think we can be solid at every position. Though I'm high on JJ and Skal, and think Koufos is solid if WCS isn't ready to step in (and WCS looks encouraging on recent instagram clips)
It is a bad sign if Willie cannot beat out Koufos.

If Wille builds on what he did to end of the year and strong summer then he should win the starter spot. He failed miserably last year and Joerger was left but no choice to start Koufos and Boogie. I thought that pairing could work because of the versatility of Cousins but he didn't show the desire to play away defensively from the key and that duo struggled.

As dependable as Koufos is, you cannot run offense through him as a high post center. Willie is a little more dynamic in this regard. If Willie and Skal can handle the boards, I want to see these guys starting. I get the feeling that Willie wants to develop as a center who can step away and face up his man, shoot the short jumper, take one power dribble to rim and use his athleticism to draw fouls and make plays. This is a far cry from his projected role as a defensive enforcer when he was drafted.

He has a quickness and length advantage against centers and when Willie works from the mid post to high post and pick and roll he can use his skills. There is this conventional wisdom that we should pair a vet with a young guy, or Koufos and Skal to start and Z-Bo and Willie as back-ups. Meh. I think with a veteran like Hill running the show we can afford to go young at the other positions assuming these guys have strong camps.

My projected starters are:

Starters
Hill
Buddy
Temple
Skal
Willie

Bench
De'Aaron
Bogdan
Jackson
Zach
Koufos or Papa G

No Playing Time Unless Injury or Fouls:
Papa G or Koufos
Vince Carter
Mason
Giles

Like I said in OP if two of the three starting positions along frontline are competently manned, this team can take off. Then we have a dynamic and formidable backcourt for 96 minutes, four capable starters and one hole along the frontline filled by committee. To me the biggest questions are:
  • Is Willie a capable starting center in this league?
  • Is Skal a capable starting PF in this league?
  • Can Temple slide down to SF and give us solid minutes before Malachi or Jackson is ready to take over by mid season?
If two of these three questions are answered favorably, the Kings can win 40 games.