The #10 Pick if We Get Fox and No Trade Happens....

I think we will look back at tomorrow in coming months and years as one of biggest days in Kings history if all goes well. It will be pivot point in franchise from irrelevancy to legitimacy. From laughingstock to stacked.

This team is not that far away. But the 2 to 3 to 4 pieces we need are contingent on being astute & bold & insightful & positioning ourselves adeptly for free agency July 1 to fill in the remaining holes.

Remember when the Kings got White Chocolate, C-Webb and Vlade in one summer back in the day? This is the kind of summer we can have with the combination of draft picks and cap space!

Yet the few pieces we need may as well be a million if we draft the next Nik, Jimmer or T-Rob.

Vlade is close yet so far. We need stars. Not one but two (to add to our prospective stars, Buddy and Skal)!
And perhaps a sleeper later in the draft. I like our odds to get Fox. And I like our odds to get a high level prospect if he's not there (Isaac or Jackson).

#10 is where it gets dicey. This is where Vlade is going to earn his paycheck or egregiously chase the next Wes Matthews. I am hoping he learned from his high risk low reward rookie GM day and and alters his approach accordingly.

OG Anunoby needs to be crossed off the list. So does Frank N. If we get Fox, then Donovan is a no-go. Smith Jr and Tatum are not falling to #10. We are running out of options. These scoundrels, aka the other 29 teams in the NBA, are looking to steal our assets on the cheap. Unless a antagonist comes to their senses we are hanging on to #10 and need to make the most of it.

I don’t say this with unadulterated excitement but if Zach Collins can play PF we may as well draft him at #10 IF and ONLY IF we get Fox and IF and ONLY IF a better trade opportunity does not present itself from an overpaying team…..

His stats are eye-opening:

FG - 65% (through the roof)
MPG - 17 MPG (foul prone)
DRB % - 23% (solid)
BLK % - 10% (great)
ORtg -DRtg. - 131 - 74 (+56) (legendary)

Collins production and efficiency was off the charts in limited minutes. He blocks shots. He can shoot the jumper (though sample size is ridiculous small, i.e. 10 for 21 on 3s - 48%). He has more polish with his face up game than Willie or Papa G. And more shooting range than Skal.

We are NOT going to get our SF at #10 unless we want to invest in damage goods likely sidelined until 2018. I think we can afford to be patient with a guy like OG. But there have been some rumblings this was a BAD ACL tear (probably with meniscus and MCL damage too). I do not want to incur this risk at #10 . Tatum is not falling to #10. Bridges unfortunately returned to school.

Here’s the advantages of Collins that I talked myself into the night before the draft:

• We add him to our three young bigs (WCS, Skal, Papa G) and battle it out for minutes . Likely 2 or 3 will emerge. If three emerge then we have one trade candidate down the road. In the interim, these guys are NOT going to have to worry about foul trouble when penciled in for 20-25 MPG

• We aggressively seek new home for Koufos (possibly for a mid-first rounder?). Galloway opting out is a blessing. We don’t need him. We need his roster spot more than his skill set. $5-6M more to absorb Otto Porter into our cap space His opting out also makes adding another rookie more sensible.

• It is conceivable Kings are going to play “three guard lineups” with a combination of Fox, Buddy, BB, Temple, Malachi. If we are going relatively small at SF it may be helpful to have more size along front line to close off penetration and help against post ups. Having 4 guys who are 7'0" tall gives Joerger a lot of length to provide resistance (Skal is 6'11" but close enough )

• Collins does not stretch the floor like Lauri M but he’s tougher. He’s a lob target and corner three target and wing target for Fox. I like that Collins (1) finishes strong inside with length and force and touch (2) shows perimeter touch. Showing skill inside AND outside gives a weapon to help Fox win the ROY in a landslide!

I don’t know about Collins perimeter D on the pick and roll. This is THE question mark. This is where I defer to scouting. His success depends on his ability (or inability) to play pick and roll D and not get exposed. He has to be able to challenge then rotate back. He has to have quick enough feet and lateral speed. If he is too slow then he is resigned to center. Then we have three guys fighting for playing time there.

The prudence to draft Collins is contingent upon him having agility to defend small ball fours and the hedge against PG on pick and roll and defend away from the basket. Per this workout video his agility looks pretty good. Previously I pegged this guy as a center. He may have the mobility to play away from the basket.



Everybody is thinking about our hole at SF. But we have hole at at PF too!

Our projected starter is a kid with limited experience. Skal has all star potential but premature to project him as 30-35 MPG player. Consistent with the philosophy of Joerger of bringing along the youngster slowly, requiring minutes being earned, it is viable to project Skal as 20-25 MPG so he does not have pressure of doing more than ready. When he has inevitable off night we need someone step up and play respectable minutes.

This is where Collins comes in. To alleviate burden on Skal and assume some responsibility at that position. Prospectively you could see Skal playing 25-30 MPG and Collins 15-20 MPG or even split depending on the fouls, the opponent and who has the hot hand. In this optimistic scenario, landing Fox at #5 and Collins at #10 will be a epic day for the Kings, their fans, and so-bright-you-have-t0-wear-shades future.

Next on the to-do list:

Can we move Koufos for a pick and nab SF prospect? Maybe maybe not. But we don’t have to get it all done on Thursday. There’s is pending buyout or trade Affalo. This is bullet in our gun. There’s the open roster from Galloway's unexpected gift. There’s 50M in cap space to take advantage of desperate teams with bloated payrolls. There’s a tremendous opportunity for Vlade to improve this team. The stars are lining up following lottery luck. Vlade needs to get this right. I don’t have unequivocal confidence. But more confidence in him than Laker fans have in Magic after that horrific trade yesterday of D’ Angelo for cap space!

These are exciting times. Even if Fox goes Top 4, I don’t see that as devastating. Disappointing yes. But we nab Isaac at #5 (or Jackson if he slides) and perhaps Collins or Donovan at #10. Magic is foolish to think we would trade the #5 and#10 for #2. No thanks, pal. You trade away best player on your team with expectation the Pacers would give away Paul George? Good luck with that. The only thing more great than seeing the Kings rise from the ashes of despair and years of bumbling and fumbling and Jimmering around will be to watch the Lakers wallow in ineptitude and whiff on lofty aspirations as the league passes them by just like Fox goes by Ball for another uncontested layup.

Tomorrow is going to be a great day! Fox and Collins! Let's do this!

I want who Vlade and his staff want and are able to get. We cannot cherry-pick the best for us in this draft. We have take the best we can get and I pick Vlade's team as my choosers.

If you want who Vlade wants then you are operating on the assumption he is infallible. I don't operate on that assumption. He has already proven he is not. To be fair no GM is perfect but if he drafts Tatum at #5 for example I am not going to get behind the pick. I don't think this will happen but I am not supporting whatever he does automatically just like I don't automatically support players because they wear the Kings jersey.

I'm onboard with Fox and Collins - a defensive draft - seems good for mixing in with Hield - bring back Collison for shooting and call it a day. That is what many mocks are predicting.....but remember last year! Who the hell knows.....
You can't teach Collins shot blocking ability.

Last year was a bit different though. There were clear 8 prospects and then a big fall off. After that there was not really much consensus and more of wide ranging opinions about likely order.

This year there is a clear top 5 or maybe 6 and then there is a bit of a fall off after pick 11. There are two tiers if you like. While I would not be surprised if there is a left field selection at 10 I think at 5 there will be no real surprises.

I suspect that at 10 we pick who ever slides down or Collins who reportedly the front office is high on. I would still like to see a trade up that would enable us to walk away with high quality prospects at both PG and SF.

Suicide watch for the Kings remotely selecting him 5. I think he's that level talent and I heard he kicked the door down in that workout

I just don't know about Collins. Excellent shot blocker and rebounder. Can shoot the 3 and has excellent offensive and defensive potential.

On the other hand, he turns the ball over and fouls a TON. His wingspan isn't that great for a guy his size which means his shot blocking may not translate.

I have this sinking feeling that in the end it will look like Jason Thompson and Meyers Leonard had a baby and named him Zach Collins.

Standing reach is more important than wingspan

Something tells me Kings about 75% getting Fox at #5. Otherwise, Tatum or Jackson at #5 (99% one or the other) and then best player regardless position at #10 - hoping for in this order: Monk, Smith, Issac (although likely gone). Fox/Monk (UK blazing back court) would sure be interesting in Kings purple. The trifecta with Buddy in scorching 3 guard attack? But more likely Monk instant offense off the bench 6th man. But if it's Tatum or Jackson to Kings at #5 then at least small forward spot secured with departure of Gay. #10 selection no matter who it is unlikely to start anyway, at least right away.

The foul trouble is a concern (probably his greatest), but we can't forget that he is in fact a 19 year old big man. Those tend to take awhile to figure out how to play and Collins is as far along on both ends as I've seen in a long time. Also, the dude goes balls to the wall on both ends which probably contributes to his foul trouble. He'll learn how to pick his spots better with time. I do know you can't teach his rim protection instincts or his rebounding ability.

Watch his shot blocking clips - he has extraordinary reactions - so I think it will translate.

There's a chance the pick at #10 is the other Collins.

John Collins was in town twice to workout for the Kings.

My pick at 10 requires seeing OG's medical records, because if healthy, that's who I want.

Barring that, or if medical records indicate trouble, Collins...I guess.

I'm with you on og assuming Fox is the pick at five. If we go with a sf there instead then I'm rooting for Mitchell at ten. Just not sure Vlade and Co will be sold enough on either guys upside to pass on a Collins if he's there.

If we go SF at 5, I would hope to get Ntilikina at 10. Not just because he is a PG, but I really like his prospects. His stats on paper are skewed due to how differently things were ran compared to NCAA.

He is only getting 20 mins a game and splitting time at PG with an older player. They have a structure and he has been limited by it.

I would be surprised to see him available at 10 but if we go SF at 5 and he is there at 10, that's who I would like. He is the PG I wanted before our fortuitous lottery luck. With my other pick being OG.

I will admit to not being as familiar with Mitchell as I should be.

Ah ..... Those are several areas where we differ. Let's you and I sit down and enjoy the draft.

If we have Fox already I think the next pick is Justin Jackson.

It's times like these where I wish Miles Bridges declared...

I'd be happy with taking Collins at #10, but if we take Fox at #5, that does not prevent me from taking Smith Jr., Monk, Ntilikina, or Mitchell at #10. We need the best player. Period. We're not in the position to start getting cute with who we take. This team needs talent in the worse way possible.


I would like to make a trade to get a late lotto/mid 1st round pick as well...

Draft Day Trade
Portland Gets: Arron Afflalo (waived), Kosta Koufos, & #34
Sacramento Gets: Evan Turner, Meyers Leonard, #15, & #20

NBA Draft
Using Draftexpress as a gauge of who would be available at each of those picks, I would take...

#5 - Fox
#10 - Z. Collins
#15 - Ntilikina
#20 - Anunoby

Free Agency
I'd resign Lawson as a veteran PG who can help teach the position to both Fox & Ntilikina. Since he's a better passer/setup man than Collison, I'd rather have him in these guys ears when helping develop that part of their game. We'd also sign Bogdanovic as well which would leave us one open roster spot to try and go after a guy like Porter (99% chance it won't happen) with our massive amount of cap space.

2017-2018 Roster
PG - Lawson / Fox / Ntilikina
SG - Hield / Bogdanovic / Richardson
SF - Temple / Turner / Anunoby
PF - Leonard / Labissiere
C - Cauley-Stein / Papagiannis / Collins

2018-2019 Offseason
Then next year, you're probably looking at a top 3 pick and we can land a guy like Michael Porter. Then you're looking at a future young core of...

PG - Fox / Ntilikina
SG - Hield / Bogdanovic / Richardson
SF - Porter / Anunoby
PF - Labissiere / Cauley-Stein
C - Collins / Papagiannis

The Portland trade I like. I was thinking Turner/Leonard for 15/20 too.

Yes defense defense defense!!! I think one thing that is not appreciated is that once De'Aaron gets his shot down he can be a 20 PPG scorer.....so the Kings can build their offense around three guys capable of giving you 20 PPG - Buddy, Skal and Fox - then add tough guys around them who can defend and make open shots.

I think I prefer Lawson over Collison. He sets up our bigs better.

If we get Fox, then the tenth pick could go down one of the following routes:

Borderline top five talent falls
Malik Monk: if this kid falls I would say draft the kid and don't look back. Yes we have Buddy, Malachi, Bogdanovic (if he comes over), and McLemore (if we don't use the qualifying offer). But Monk is an excellent shooter and has a lot of scoring potential. I could see him becoming a Lou Williams like player which would give us an excellent sixth man. He could even push Buddy for the starting role which would force Buddy to keep working hard.

Jonathan Isaac: in the unlikely event he is available he should be snapped up. He has excellent size and a decent skill set. I am not convinced he is ever going to become a go to option on the offensive end. In fact I see him becoming more of a Marvin Williams like player - a damn fine defensive player that can knock down a three point shot. We could do worse than find the next Marvin Williams, but if that offensive side of his game does develop then the sky is the limit.

The more realistic options
Lauri Markkanen: this kid can shoot and stretch the floor. The defensive end is a question mark at this time but if he works hard and becomes an acceptable defensive player then that should be enough to give him the opportunity of having a good career in the NBA. Adding Markkanen would give us some exciting options in the front court like him and Skal, him and Willie, or him and Pappa.

Donovan Mitchell: he is one of the prospects that I like the most as a possible tenth overall pick, the issue is that his natural position is one that we already have depth at. However, if he was to develop his ball handling skills, then he could feasibly develop into a sixth man candidate off the bench pairing with Malachi or Bogdanovic in the back court. He has a lot of Lou Williams or Eric Gordon to his game and we could do worse than add such a talent at ten.

Justin Jackson: this one seems to be unpopular among certain Kings fans. He doesn't have tremendous upside like other prospects, but what he does come to the league with is polish at both ends of the court. He could become a very useful 3&D player which could be just what we need at the SF position if we end up with a star PG (Fox), a stud SG (Buddy) and a stud PF (Skal).

Zach Collins: adding a third young center might seem like overkill but the Collins is a very well rounded prospect. Even if he doesn't carve out major minutes at C initially, he could get time at power forward with his skill set. I like him as a prospect, but he is not my first choice due to existing depth at the C position.

For me, I would love to see one of the top five talent fall to us at ten, but I suspect we are going to end up with Markkanen or Collins as our pick at ten, which would not be a bad thing because both talents could be really good additions to this team.

Justin Jackson is too high at #10. He's a role player possible starter not a star. Donovan makes more sense if we get Isaac at #5. There's NO way NO way Isaac is falling to #10. In fact I think we'll take him or Jackson if Fox goes Top 4. Lauri seems like a logical fit to Minnesota but I can see him sliding too. Simply by process of elimination that leaves us with Collins.

But again, drafting this kid is contingent on him playing PF. I don't know if he can. I trust our scouting and Vlade to make an accurate assessment. We do have a need at PF behind Skal and if Collins can be this guy, well, great.

If Vlade went for Harry Giles I wouldn't mind. Go for it. He's had a big injury but he's also a big talent. Collins is intriguing, but I wonder about his poor passing skills. The #10 could be the more interesting pick of the day for the Kings because there are so many ways to go.

I wouldn't go Giles at 10, there is way too much injury history.

If we traded down to the 15-20 range, then maybe.

But, if we are trading down for a player with an history of injury, I think I would nab OG at 15-20 range.

If Kings traded down, it's possible they could have a chance to get Giles and OG.

Probably not a bad idea. We have no sf on current roster. I'm still on board for Otto porter but a young one wouldn't hurt

I've listened to a dozen or more podcasts this week. I'm starting to like the idea of taking Donovan Mitchell as a combo guard/defensive guy at 10

Isaac just makes so much sense at #5 imo because one of either Mitchell, Monk, Ntilikina, DSJ and even Fox could be there at #5.

It really depends which player drops at 10, if it's Monk, draft him. I don't see Smith dropping, Markannen or Frank N. in that case, you are left with Collins, Mitchell, OG, Giles, Patton. Not a bad group of selections at all.

I like the guy a lot. He's low risk in the sense he's going to lock down on defense and his shot and range is nice. But I think if we get Fox at #5 we cannot use a tremendous asset (#10) to create a log jam in the backcourt.

Whether Donovan can play point remains to be seen. By contrast we have need at PF to share the responsibilities with Skal and if Collins can play there I'd prefer him at #10....if Fox is out pick at #5. Now I think it comes down to this: who has the best chance to be a star? If Donovan is deemed more star worthy than perhaps you create the logjam and sort that out later. But if star potential is comparable or close, then Collins makes more sense to me.