The art and agony of the tank (split from game thread)

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206Fan

All-Star
#211
#211
Čarolija said:
But getting an early pick is no guarantees. Paul George (10), Jimmy Butler (30), Leonard (15), Giannis (15) etc... are all-stars/franchise level players that were drafted from mid lottery onwards. Meanwhile guys like Bennett (1), T. Thompson (4), Thabeet (2), T. Robinson (5), D. Williams (2) etc.. were all top 5 picks. There are no guarantees and in this draft its just as likely that you get your franchise guy at 10 as it is to get them at 3.
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Mathematically incorrect. Can't find it now, but someone analyzed the data of draft picks from a span of period, and it showed the probability of each draft selection becoming a star, role player, bench, etc.

It was such a nice and easy metric to read, but I can't find it. However, here's a few other ones:

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm
http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/06/17/freelance-friday-expected-value-in-the-nba-draft/

So in the end, you have a much higher chance of picking a franchise guy at 3, than 10. It's logic too. For every PG, Butler, Leonard, Giannis, there's also Kendal Marshall, Jeremy Lamb, John Jenkins, Jared Sullinger,
 
ParniValjak

ParniValjak

All-Star
#212
#212
206Fan said:
Mathematically incorrect. Can't find it now, but someone analyzed the data of draft picks from a span of period, and it showed the probability of each draft selection becoming a star, role player, bench, etc.

It was such a nice and easy metric to read, but I can't find it. However, here's a few other ones:

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm
http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/06/17/freelance-friday-expected-value-in-the-nba-draft/

So in the end, you have a much higher chance of picking a franchise guy at 3, than 10. It's logic too. For every PG, Butler, Leonard, Giannis, there's also Kendal Marshall, Jeremy Lamb, John Jenkins, Jared Sullinger,
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No one is questioning the fact that you have much higher chance to pick a franchise guy the lower your pick because some of those guys a pretty clearly a franchise type player (e.g. Davis, LeBron etc). Further down the draft order you go the more you need to earn your money as a talent evaluator to pick the right player. Like I said Paul George was pick 10, so was Pierce. Leonard was pick 15. Jimmy Butler pick 30. Giannis was pick 15. Picking a franchise level guy mid to late lottery is nothing new. It has been happening for decades, you just really need to do you homework and see something that no one else sees.
 
hrdboild

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
#217
#217
Suicide King said:
I'm calling the Kings jump into top 3 for once , swap with Philly into the 4th pick. Would be both beneficial for us while still keeping it Kangz. Universe in harmony.
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That would be great! It would be the 5 pick though on account of us leapfrogging them and pushing everybody else at the top of the draft down. Unless both teams pull a top 3 pick, but what are the odds of that. :)
 
Suicide King

Suicide King

Starter
#219
#219
It was meant to be a little tongue in cheek so forgive the inaccuracy.
Yes indeed @Hrdboiled it would quite a turn. I am sure the fact we had to swap would be more important to some than our good fortune.
 
T

theclash4u5

Starter
#223
#223
Welp, after we beat the Lakers tomorrow, we will only be .5 out of the 9th spot. If NO continues to lose, we could finish at 10th. If someone jumps us...we lose our pick. Way to go Vlade. Thanks for not trading Collison or AA for scraps at the deadline. It made way more sense to just sit them for "personal reasons" down the stretch.
 
White_Chocolate

White_Chocolate

Starter
#224
#224
Section 101 said:
Calling it first.

Kings beat the Lakers and Suns. Finish with 33 wins in the 9th slot. Pels and another team 11-16 get in top 3. Kings get no draft picks this year.
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I also believe Kings will lose to the Lakers in LA. Laker fans still love watching the Lakers beat the Kings and the young fellas down their will take it personally.
 
J

jpsls

Bench
#229
#229
Čarolija said:
And sometimes having more options to chose from leads the teams to not being as well prepared as they otherwise would be. If you have a top 4 pick, you might consider 6-7 players and those are the players you focus on.

If you are picking 15th that list grows out to about 20 players where you do more research, more background checks, watch more tapes of each player and are generally more prepared and knowledgeable about the prospects tan if you only have top 4 pick
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If an organization isn't willing to watch the same amount of tape on a player independent of their draft slot, then there is little hope for that franchise.
 
K

kingdivac

All-Star
#231
#231
The_Jamal said:
Throw the exact same rotation we did vs Dallas. 37 minutes of Langston Galloway at PG should do the trick just fine.
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That's only one tactic.....whats plan B or C?

A pick may be in the balance.

Losing to the Lakers will not be easy - they are in the same boat....it'll be an all-star game score maybe.
 
gunks

gunks

Hall of Famer
#239
#239
Section 101 said:
Calling it first.

Kings beat the Lakers and Suns. Finish with 33 wins in the 9th slot. Pels and another team 11-16 get in top 3. Kings get no draft picks this year.
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That would suck, but still be less of a disaster than the Cuz trade.

I'd honestly laugh if it went down like that.
 
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