I've always disliked the calls for tanking, prefering that we make trades for future assets, rest our veterans, and develop the youngsters - without just throwing them in the fire. Granted, this isn't good enough if your goal is to deeply tank and choose a top 3 draft pick who will take you to the promised land. So I wanted to share something...
Look at the top 3 draft picks for the last 7 years (below). In hindsight, only one of the three (on average) looks to be a justified top 3 pick. If you expand from the top 3 to the top 5, or to the top 10, the lesson is the same. Only about 1 in 3 high draft picks look justified with the benefit of hindsight. If you expand back beyond 2010, the same lesson is there, too. So the teams follow these prospects and (hopefully) make informed choices (draft picks). But the odds of a high pick being justified are not good! Doesn't mean it's a total crap shoot, but it does mean that there's a significant element of chance. In other words, I see no reason to assume that having a top 3 draft pick is significantly better than having a top 6 draft pick. And I see no reason to assume that having a top 6 draft pick is significantly better than having a top 9 draft pick. Yes, the chances are better, but not significantly better. I think you can significantly affect your odds if you allow uninformed people to influence the decision. Remember Jimmer? T-Rob? Unfortunately, the Kings have made their share of bad draft decisions. But that was then and this is now.
2016:
Ben Simmons, 76ers
Brandon Ingram, Lakers
Jaylen Brown, Celtics
Too early to tell if any of these guys should have been in the top 3.
2015:
Karl-Anthony Towns, Wolves
D'Angelo Russell, Lakers
Jahlil Okafor, 76ers
May be too early to tell, but right now it looks like only KAT should have been in the top 3.
2014:
Andrew Wiggins, Cavs (then to Wolves in the Kevin Love deal)
Jabari Parker, Bucks
Joel Embiid, 76ers
At this point, only 1 or 2 of the 3 should have been in the top 3 (depending on your optimism for Embiid's health).
2013:
Anthony Bennett, Cavs
Victor Oladipo, Magic (then to Thunder in the Serge Ibaka deal)
Otto Porter, Wizards
Oladipo and Porter are good players with fine upsides, but I'm not sure that any of these guys should have been in the top 3.
2012:
Anthony Davis, New Orleans
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bobcats/Hornets (then to ...)
Bradley Beal, Wizards
Only 1 of the 3 should have been in the top 3, although Beal's star is rising.
2011:
Kyrie Irving, Cavs
Derrick Williams, Wolves (who cares the journey from there)
Enes Kanter, Jazz (then to Thunder)
Only 1 of the 3 should have been in the top 3.
2010:
John Wall, Wizards
Evan Turner, 76ers (then to Pacers, Celtics, Blazers)
Derrick Favors, Nets (then to Jazz)
Only 1 of the 3 should have been in the top 3. Favors is not a bad player, but a top 3?