Smith or Fox? (poll added)

Ditto! Although I really feel sorry Ball. Who would want a father like that? The father has got to get his own life and quit living through his kid. It's totally unfair to Ball, imo.

I very much doubt it. He's going first or second, imo

If the frenchie does have the better shot, you've got to go with the frenchie over Fox. I love the quickness Fox brings to table, but facts are facts: If at all possible you want a pg who won't take 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 or 7 years before he finally has a 3 point shot, especially when the pg isn't near elite in the creativity/passing department.

I'm not as high on Tatum, Bridges, and Markkanen as some are. This is probably my list in rank order at this point.

Fultz
Jackson
Ball
Fox
Smith
Isaac
Tatum
Nitilikina
Monk
Bridges
Markkanen

I don't think I'd hesitate to take two PGs (or a PG & Monk) if Bridges/Markkanen were also there. If we take Fox at #6 and Fultz, Jackson, Ball, Smith, Isaac, and Tatum are gone, Id take Monk or Ntilikina before I take Bridges or Markkanen and figure it out later. I like their ceilings way more than Bridges/Markkanen.

I think Fox can develop a mid range shot which could make him a star that pick and roll game is something else

I have not really followed much of LaVar Ball running of the mouth, however I get the idea that he is Kris Kardashian but dresses up like a dude. Happy to prostitute out his kids for a bit of fame. I personally don't want any Keeping up with the Balls in Sacramento.

Well, I don't think we will have to worry about it unless we and the 76ers both break in the top 3.

I think he's already got his Laker # picked out.

Sadly, I don't think Fox will be available by the Kings pick (#7-8). We will probably be left with PGs Smith and Nitilikina to pick from.

Since the draft has more high end Point Guard prospects, if we get our #8 and N.O.#10, we may want to draft our Small Forward (i.e. Issac) with our higher pick first.

And then take whoever is left of Smith and Nitilikina at #10 for our point guard, although I do think Smith has more star potential, reminds me of Steve Francis from the Houston Rockets.

Fultz, Ball, and Jackson are probably the top 3. I could see Tatum and Smith moving up as we get closer to the draft. Not every team needs defenders as badly as we do and Tatum and Smith look like talented all-around scorers with good size at their positions and star potential. If Monk slips into the top 6 as well with teams like New York and Philadelphia needing reliable outside shooting more than a traditional playmaking PG, that opens up the possibility of Fox slipping down to 7. Of course if we beat LA and Phoenix and slip down to 8 or 9 that doesn't help us. I wish we would have just lost those two 1 point games against Memphis and LA. We would have been in good shape at #6 right now.

I'm also warming up to the idea of Dennis Smith Jr. if he's the last PG left on the board. In any other draft he would be a guy we're coveting. His attitude was questionable at times, his team didn't win, he's more score first than I would like and lackadaisical about defense but he's a biggish PG who can really score the ball, gets to the line like crazy, throws down eye-popping dunks which excite the crowd, and doesn't have any significant weaknesses in his skillset. If we draft Smith Jr. and Miles Bridges (who hasn't declared for the draft yet, I'm getting nervous) we would be adding the two most explosive athletes in the lottery in the same year and both of them at positions of need. That would be a fun team to watch. Basically if we can get one of Fox/Ntilikina/Smith and one of Isaac/Bridges/Tatum with our two picks we should be very excited about our future.

You've got Markkanen in the right spot. I'd move Smith down to just in front of Bridges. I believe that three years from now, Isaac will be one of the best, if not the best player to come out of this draft. He rebounds and blocks shots like a PF, and his blocking isn't as a help defender, but in straight up man to man defense. But at the same time, he has an effortless 3 pt shot. He has the handles of a SG, and terrific lateral quickness, which enables him to guard multiple positions. My prayer is that he's there when we pick.

I'm not a fan of Markkanen at all. So far he's a one trick pony. The only think I know for sure that he can do is shoot the ball. If I'm choosing at 11 or 12, then I think he has value, but anything above that is a reach in my opinion. I've already expressed my opinion on Smith in the prospects forum, but in short, I don't question his talent, I question his heart. The dude mailed in a couple of games at the end of the year, including the conference championship game. There were times during games where he didn't seem engaged. Maybe his mind was already on the NBA, and college was just something he had to go through. Even if that's true, it makes me question his desire...

Yeah, we may both go down in flames over Smith, and I hope for his sake, and ours, if we draft him, that I'am wrong. I've watched Markkanen play a lot, and I've done my best to like him, but I can't. I don't see any comparison to him and Ryan Anderson at all. Anderson was one of the PAC 12 rebound leaders when he was at Cal, and people tend to forget because of what a good shooter Ryan is, that he's a very good post player as well. Can't say that about Markkanen. Dirk, maybe a bit.

Well if your looking for defense, Isaac is probably one of the best defenders in the draft. As for Smith being a biggish PG, he's actually one of the shortest of the top PG's.

Ntilikina: 6'5" in shoes. No other meaurements available at this time
Ball: 6'4.5" in shoes - 6'7" wingspan - 8'4.5" standing reach.
Fox: 6'3.3" in shoes - 6'4.5" wingspan - 8'3" standing reach.
Fultz: 6'3.5" in shoes - 6'9.5" wingspan - 8'5.5" standing reach.
Smith: 6'1.5" in shoes - 6'3" wingspan - 8'1" standing reach.

By no means is he a midget, and he's a terrific athlete, but he's not what I would call a biggish PG.

Wouldn't it be heartbreaking if the Lakers get knocked out of the top three in the lottery and they lose that pick. I think all the Laker fans, and perhaps Ball will need some therapy. Maybe a day of mourning will be in order.

Having watched Arizona all season (and even with my alumni bias), I 100% agree with your assessments of Markannen. Your scouting is impressive, nice work!

As mentioned re: Smith, I've loved his all-around talent, statistical production and athleticism, but the talk around his character, motor and team skills are scary, especially for a long-term losing franchise. You can't have your lead guard not be a good leader. I really like how you looked in depth here as I only have time to read the Cliff Notes and the occasional Mike Schmitz scouting video.

Love the idea of Ntilikina (big guard, huge wingspan, emerging 3P threat) but who knows what he'll become at this stage. Without the first step, ability to finish inside/avoid contact, he screams of having combo guard/3-D potential down the road. He's reputedly a great passer but that hasn't really shown in the stats, from what I can see. Based on the video you've watched, do you think he can be a lead PG and above-average passer, or will he thrive better in two-PG lineups?

I'm a bit more intrigued by Hartenstein than Markannen, but all this could change come workouts.
Ntilikina is the guard that tops my list then Fox, all assuming we don't luck into Fultz. Again this could all change come workouts.

This draft has a lot of bigger PGs, but I think Smith Jr. is still league average or maybe a little above for that position. Fultz and Ball are both going top 3 after that you have to talk yourself into Fox improving on his jumper (I believe he can) or Ntilikina's performance in the U18 European Championship translating to NBA success eventually (I believe it will) and if neither of those appeal to you, Smith Jr. looks like a safer pick if you get past the potential attitude concerns. He's lower on my board but I wouldn't be mad if we take him after the other PGs are gone. And I can see why some teams may have him ranked much higher for their particular circumstances.

I really like Isaac too. Similar to my feelings about Fox and Ntilikina, I'd have a tough time choosing between Isaac and Bridges right now. I'd love either one. We still don't know if Bridges is entering the draft though. He's a guy I could see potentially wanting to come back to compete for a championship under Coach Izzo. I hope he decides to enter the draft though.

I am wondering that if you have WCS, Skal and Isaac as your frontcourt whether there is enough length and defensive potential there to cover for your backcourt getting beaten off the dribble.

Let's put it this way - if the Lakers keep that pick (especially if they get Ball with it) the Lakers fans will be insufferable at Summer League, and there will be about 17,000 of them a day. Please, please, please, please let those lotto balls hate the Lakers!

those r the 2 players i hope fall to the kings also. frank and isaac

I am intrigued by Isaac. A lot of question marks but if I was the Kings, given how the coaching staff has been developing players this season, I would be looking to draft Isaac. With WCS, Skal and Isaac, you have all sorts of crazy length, athleticism, rebounding and athleticism in your front court. There is something about Isaac's jump shot that has me questioning whether he will be able to get it off in the NBA with defenses focused on him? I think it's his release point but that is all correctable.

All that trio would need is a stud, quick PG who can push the tempo and hit his jumpers at a respectable level. Imagine if the Kings end up drafting Isaac and Fox. That is a lot of speed, length and defensive potential. It would be a fund team to watch. If Fox adds that consistent jump shot then watch out. I highly doubt Kings will get both. I think Fox will go before Kings first pick. If he is there and you take him, then I doubt Isaac makes it to the second pick that Kings get from Pelicans.

Team of WCS-Skal-Isaac-Buddy/Malachi-Fox would be a hell of a lot of fun to watch running up and down the court. Defensively, the team would have huge potential. Offensively, there needs to be 2-3 players who break out as genuine 1, 2, and 3 scoring options.

I would like nothing more to be excited about the possibility of us drafting Smith Jr. This would allow other teams to pick Smith/Ntilikina and we'd still have another point guard to pick.
So if you can convince I'm all in But I'm not there yet.

A big part of scouting for me has always been looking for process over results. If a guy is in a terrible situation he could still be very good somewhere else. So the fact that his team hasnt made it to the tournament isnt damning per se. But oh boy do I have a tough time watching tape of him and NC State. It's not even the defensive effort. I could talk myself into Joerger getting that out of him. But watching him run their offense is just brutal. He'll dribble it up the court slowly, stop the ball to think, wave a guy off, wave another guy to him, set up a pick and roll and turn it over trying to go by two defenders. Almost never do I have the feeling that he controls the tempo of the game or even the offense of his own team like guys like Fox or Ball can. I have a tough time figuring out if that is because he has no clue how to run an NBA offense or because of the situation at NC State and their coaching problems. I even tried to find tape of him playing USA basketball to see how he looked there but I wasnt able to. So when you say you wouldn't be mad after the other guys are gone, you still think that he will be a good NBA point guard? Because that's what I'm trying to find out right now.

I'm not worried about Dennis Smith Jr. because I think he's got a very good chance to be a starting PG in the league, yes. He's not one of my favorite players in this draft, I see a lot of the same red flags that others have called him on, but I also see an exceptional athlete with very good ballhandling skills and NBA range on his jumper. Guys like Damian Lillard and Kyrie Irving aren't great playmakers either but they can consistently put pressure on the defense with their scoring ability and that always helps to open up shots for other players. The longer three point line in the NBA (not to mention the overwhelming emphasis on outside shooting which is not going away anytime soon, much as that irks me) opens up the floor more for speedy guards to get into the paint. The other thing that bodes well for Smith as a scorer in the NBA is how often he gets to the free throw line: 6.3 times per game this year which is very good for a guard. I find FTA per game (or more precisely FTA rate) to be a good predictor of overall scoring potential in the NBA. Guys who lead the league in scoring always get a good chunk of their points from the free throw line. Fultz and Fox also rate very well in this category while Lonzo Ball does not (but then scoring potential isn't why people like Lonzo Ball).

Despite my preference for traditional PGs, I've had to acknowledge that the NBA has shifted toward an emphasis on scoring guards in recent years. The traditional pass-first point guard is all but extinct in NBA basketball right now and the back-to-the-basket center is going that way too. I remember watching Michael Carter-Williams at Syracuse and being impressed by how he could dominate games with his long arms on defense and his ability to create shots for his teammates but after that big rookie season he's struggled to find a role in the NBA and the reason is that nobody respects his jumper. Even a talented playmaker is going to struggle if the defense is always playing them to pass. Rajon Rondo and Elfrid Payton have faced that problem too. Kyle Lowry was a journeyman until he discovered his outside shot. Thibodeau's trapping and switching defense has spread league-wide taking away most of the easy shots teams used to get with ball movement and now guards who can space the floor with their shooting ability, dance around the outside of the defense, and then exploit mistakes to knife to the basket are dominating. That's why Fultz probably has to be the #1 pick this year and it's why I've got Smith Jr. in my top 8 even though he's really just a one-way player who doesn't pay a lot of attention to his defensive responsibilities.

To clarify, I would be mad if we pick Smith over Fox or Ntilikina. My preference is still to focus on the defensive lineup first. And I think Smith Jr. might be more flash than substance with some serious question marks about his leadership ability and/or willingness to put the team before his own stats which could develop into bigger problems later on. But he fits the mold of where the NBA is going and his talent is top 10. The lower you get in the draft the more you're going to have to compromise and draft players with significant weaknesses. And when it comes down to it, the PG position has been such a problem for us that I'd rather get Smith in this draft than no PG at all.

I think thats what its going to come down to. I'd rather have Smith than no point guard prospect to groom with our core.
I like Eric Bledsoe as an lazy NBA comparison for Smith that helps to understand what he could be like in the NBA. I watched Bledsoe highlights yesterday and its funny, not only do they look quite the same, they also play the same way. The way they run an offense is very similar. Ball dominat, little movement, standard pick and rolls, get to the rim, finish or kick.
So essentially it comes down to: Would you like to have the potential of a guy like Bledsoe on this team? Of course! Thats still a good player. But man, if you could also have the possibilty of a John Wall (Fox?) or Steve Nash (Ball?) I'd rather have the prospect with the chance to be great. Not saying that Fox will be Wall or Ball will be Nash, but that line of thimking is useful to compare ceilings and value IMO.

I think the better poll is Smith or Frank N? Though it amounts to semi-educated guess. We will know more when latter player comes to States pre draft for individual or group workouts. Then we will have video and feedback from decision makers to "read the tea leaves" . Then it could be question of do you prefer first and foremost defense or offense from your PG (in lieu of both)? One guy is 6'3" wingspan and one guy is 7"0 wingspan, which is length to play SF! A guy with that length can cause chaos havoc in passing lanes and pester dribblers, while the other guy is just looking to be respectable.

I will say on Dennis Smith is if he is willing passer and position aggressive defender, I will welcome him to Kings with open arms! These are big "ifs". On the positive I don't think anybody is going to be able to stay in front of him. You can't say that about Frank (yet). Smith is shifty, crafty, goes left, goes right, has the moves, scorers mentality and confidence and plays through contact. But this could be problematic. We saw this to degree with Boogie. When you can get shot any time, when you have talent to launch with 20 or 2 seconds on shot clock, it can occur to detriment of the team and the exclusion of teammates. If efficiency is there it might work, otherwise teammates stand and watch and get burned in transition.

I can see Smith going into "hero ball mode" shooting step back jumpers and tunnel vision drives more than he should. That's the Tyreke-playground-watch-me-do-my-thing approach. Been there done that! It is not conducive to winning unless efficiency is favorable. Needless to say we do NOT need another hot and cold Tyreke type player, and that was before his knee issues hampered effectiveness. This is also where mental component comes into play.

One of reasons Kings loved Buddy and Skal is they are good kids with good heads on shoulders. There's an intellect and character there that counts because it portends degree of improvement. If Smith is not on par, then no! Then PASS without thinking twice. If you ignore warning signs, you invite problems. You incur undue risk. That's risk you don't need with more appealing options. Thats why you tank! That's why you lose to the Lakers! Would rather choose between Frank, Smith and Fox or take the guy other decision makers deemed unworthy?

There is more than one pass at the top of this draft. Ball is a PASS; he's scrawny dude with cool name, obnoxious father, ugly shot, and talented teammates who carried him as much as vice versa. It is a PASS on Monk too because he's an undersized SG when we traded away our most talented player in franchise history for a SG. We are fully invested at that spot and resources need to be spent elsewhere. Easy call!

For those pining over Monk I say get over it, it's not happening! I may soon place Markkanen in this PASS group as a pretty player lacking grit. I don't want any front line players who cannot decide whether they want to rebound or defend on the perimeter and so end up doing neither! This is another relatively easy call. If a player is not going to board, he better guard the line and if he doesn't seem inclined to do either .... PASS! Part of getting draft right is awareness half of these guys are likely not worth the hype:

• Smith (Ball hog; tunnel vision?)
• Monk (Undersized SG?)
• Markkanen (Soft? Who does he guard?)
• Ball (Overrated, scrawny, ugly shot, can't guard?)

All these guys in the projected Top 10 one team or more are going to fall in love with until they turn into 2017-18 version of Kris Dunn, Dragon Bender, Denzel Valentine, and the love affair turns sours. This is what Vlade will be seeking to avoid. Other guys may prove worthy of the hype. So far I think hype worthy players may be:

• Fox
• Isaac
• Jackson

There is something about Bridges too if he has length and quickness to play SF. I still have not made my mind up on him though. I need more research and reflection to get more clarity. Part of getting draft right is seeing flaws and strengths and asking who are they going to guard? If you can't answer this question that is a red flag. I started getting serious about scouting year Boogie was drafted/ I have been doing this for 7 years. I have seen the "next and better and best" more than once. I am not impressed by hype or "guru" projection or consensus. Actually "consensus" is often a red flag! For example Lonzo Ball projects as guy ready to flop like no other. Other guys will join him or prove doubters (including myself) wrong. That's the fun of this time of year. When your favorite team has not made playoffs in a decade its a fun worth savoring. And also why next and final three games of the season I will be rooting for the opponent. We need options not leftovers.

@Blob

I dont always agree with what you say or how you say it, but I appreciate the effort you put into your posts.

Put me in the Frank or Fox camp.

Its not effort really its just stream of conscious.

ntilikina + bogdan as a backcourt could work as both of them can share ball handling duties. both have length to play d.

papa
willie/skal
isaac
bogdan/malachi/buddy
ntilikina/bogdan

is a decent young core to work with

That's not your depth chart is it with Buddy third?

I picked Smith just because I like him but I will be happy if any of Smith, Fox or Ntilikina are available when we pick.

I will be happier if we are able to pair one of them with Isaac but that doesn't appear likely.