Players to watch: 2016/17 college season.

Don't forget that Giles was considered the best prospect before his injury. He is currently projected to go in the teens.

Easy pass on Gilles for me. He tore his ACL, MCL, and meniscus in his left knee. He also tore his ACL in his right knee. Before this season started, he had surgery on his left knee again.

This guy screams Greg Oden.

On top of this, he seems to lack the explosiveness he had pre-injury. I wouldn't touch him with a 10ft pole. If he pans out in the NBA, good for him...but I wouldn't risk it at all.

Never pass on me! You can pass on Giles though. Those glass knees are too scary. Plus Kings seem to be deep upfront, and there are plenty nice non-big prospects in this draft.

Yeah, I think your spot on. We don't need another big, and if we did, we shouldn't be taking a gamble on a player with Giles history. Giles is a player that you take a flyer on at the bottom of the first round, especially if you have more than one pick. I wish Giles all the best and hope his injury days are behind him. I'll give him this, the dude is a good rebounder, and if he recovers his athleticism, someone will probably get a steal if he slides. And he probably will.

If I were him, I'd stay another year at Duke. It would give him a chance to totally rehab, and develop his skill set. Probably will depend on the feedback he gets from NBA GM's and scouts.

Kings are currently tied with the T Wolves and the Pelican's for the fifth worse record in the NBA. Philly is only one game behind and the Fakers are just two back. The rece to the bottom is on.. Not funny to some, I realize, but you have to make the best of every situtaion. With the Warriors on the docket tonight, it should only get worse, barring a huge upset. At what point does Vlade throw in the towel? Anyway, if we end up somewhere around the fifth spot, were sure to get a very good prospect. Hopefully if we end up fifth, Philly ends up fourth.

Sorry Gilles, I don't know if your knees would be able to hold up in a 82-game stretch either. I know I'd die by game 2. Apparently, the NBA just doesn't suite us . It's ok, I'll stick to golf.
Patton, Markkanen, or Hartestein should be the guy if we're looking for a big. I think Patton could be really special. He has an extremely nice skill level mixed with good athleticism and size. I wouldn't be upset if we took a big in this draft despite already having Cousins, WCS, Papa, and Skal. *only if an elite PG, Monk, or Isaac was off the board.

I wonder if there's anything we could give Philly to make them remove the pickswap. Lawson+Skal? Collison?

Well if we were going to make some kind of deal, I don't think we make it until we know exactly where everyone finishes. For instance, if we end up fourth and they end up fifth, then I don't think it's a good idea to give up an asset to stay one place ahead of them. However if we end up fourth and they end up ninth or tenth, then maybe we talk.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Isaac go in the top five. He's really talented, and what you see is just the tip of the iceberg. When he gets stronger and gains some NBA experience, I think he could be a star in the league. A player I really like, and a player that might slide a bit because of his injury is O.G. Anunoby. He reminds me quite a bit of Ron Artest when he was in college, although I think he's a little better shooter than Artest was at that same time. Of course it would depend on his being cleared by team doctors, and there's also the possibility he'll opt to come back to Indiana for another year. But if were sitting in the 10th spot, and all the players I like are gone, I'd have to think hard about taking him.

But if Philly knows the exact standings, of course there's nothing that would make them give up the pickswap. That's why it's important to do a trade before the deadline. There's a big gap between picking top 5, and 6-10. Top 5 gives you a guaranteed franchise PG..which is exactly what Philly needs. What could we give Philly? WCS? They have no use for him. Skal? No use for him. Richardson? No use for him. Koufos? No use for him. That's all of our assets down the drain..
That's why I think it's wise to do a trade now. It gives us flexibility in case Vlade decides to go rebuild, or god forbid it ever happens, a major injury hurts us.
If we end up 4th, and they end up 9th, there's nothing we could give for them to even reconsider giving us back the swap pick.

I was high on Anunoby early in the season, but he just went stagnant.
He could turn into Ron Artest. It'll come down to team development. I think at the very least, he's what Justin Anderson is for the Mavs. Good defensive energy guy. However, I'd rather gamble on a guy with a higher ceiling, even if they don't have a good floor.

I'm ridiculously high on Hartenstein and Ntilinka. More so Ntilinka. I see his floor as Dante Exum right now..so at the very least, he's a defensive specialist.

Not sure what you mean by going stagnant? I saw his last two games and he played well in both, until he was injured in the last game. He hasn't played in the last four or five games due to injury. Unfortunately, he plays on Indiana which doesn't give a tinkers damm about getting the ball to it's big's. Anunoby seldom gets to touch the ball on offense. But he's a terrific defender with a huge wingspan. That said, I'm very high on the other players you mentioned as well.

Don't know if you saw the Purdue game today, but Swanigan just keeps on going on. 26 pts and 10 boards today along with 3 steals and 2 blocks. I wouldn't bet against him translating to the NBA. He has a build like Cousins and has similar skills.

When Indiana started struggling, he deferred a lot. I didn't expect him to take over any games, but his lack of scoring aggression from the beginning of the season as really disappointing.

Didn't watch Purdue today, but I really don't know what Swanigan needs to do, to get his name in the 1st round. DX has him as the 61st best prospect....Did he refuse an interview with Giovny in HS? joking... Ok, I understand if someone is concerned about his lack of athleticism and foot-speed, but he has the size and frame to play C. He's 6'8.5 with a 7'3.5 wingspan. The guy is such a hardworker. The strides he's made in his 2nd year have been amazing. Almost every single thing scouts criticized him for, he's worked on.

Fultz vs. Ball on tonight.

Despite the wingspan, he's not a center. He's a power forward IMO. At the moment he will be too flat footed to defend the fours in the pros so he might need to cut down some of that fat he has.

He's always going to be flat-footed. He's actually improved his body a lot since last year. I don't see why he can't be a C. He doesn't have a disadvantage on defense. All the Cs are slow. On offense, he can actually take advantage of them too. I see him as a C going forward not a PF because he isn't a great shotblocker and his lack of footspeed might kill him in the NBA.

the centers are becoming more and more perimeter oriented, not seeing the centers are slow comment.

Swanigan actually has pretty good lateral quickness, and he can hit the three point shot, so he can score from the perimeter. He could probably lighten the load a bit, but he's not immobile. He's a very skilled player. The guys going up against the best players in college and he a double/double machine. At some point, you have to just accept the fact that the guy is a good player, athleticism or not.

Please, this is not a comparison, but prior to his being drafted, some of the same things were being said about Larry Bird. Obviously the Celtics paid no attention and drafted him early. But some GM's said he was slow, flatfooted, and couldn't jump. Just saying, you never know.

TL-DR:

• Nigel Williams-Goss will be a good backup PG, maybe even a starter, if Cuz is your PG (still a junior, not guaranteed to leave early)
  
• Gary Clark will be Matt Barnes (PF/SF version to Matt's SF/PF) without extreme dumbness (still a junior, not guaranteed to leave early)
• Sindarius Thornwell will be a good backup SG/small-ball SF

Not sure he goes pro as he still has one more year of eligibility, but Nigel Williams-Goss from Gonzaga looks really intriguing:

• 6'3", 185 PG of one of the best offensive teams in the country, though they trail UCLA and a few others, plus their opponents defense is bad. On the other hand they blow out a lot of their opponents, so garbage time lineups get quite a chunk of time, which depresses Zag's overall efficiency.
• now, that he's no longer under the spell of junk Romar's coaching (makes you think, that Fultz might be even better than he looks right now), NWG looks very efficient, while showing good decision-making
• He takes a ton of really long 3s, so his shooting is under-represented by his .366 3p%. .865 FT% offers further evidence of his shooting touch. Looks like he worked really hard on his shooting, while sitting out the season due to transfer. NWG doesn't try contested pull-ups as his team is too good to resort to tough shoots, but he's certainly looks dangerous coming off of screens. Another huge plus: in a crowded paint he goes to an assortment of floaters and backboard shots.
• defensively his main advantage is very low stance, which allows NWG to move deceptively quickly, strength is certainly not an issue either. Gonzaga is going deep in the tourney, so he will surely get a few tough assignments along the way. NWG is only 2 boards off of the best team rebounder, though almost all of them are def. ones. Still ability/inclination to clean up def. glass is always a plus.

Gonzaga is especially strong this year, does not appear to have weaknesses, and is likely to finish the season with just 1 loss some time in March, unless they go all the way. They are likely going to lose 2 seniors and the best freshman they ever had in Collins, so both best bigs and 3 out of 4 best scorers, so it might be prudent for NWG to leave as well, since he's unlikely to improve his stock or have more team success in 17/18.

Another guy, who should go pro, but may not is Gary Clark from Cincinnati. He has same reasons for that as NWG: will be 22 by the time of the draft, and his team will lose major cogs this summer.

• it's tempting to call any extremely versatile forward, who is limited offensively as Draymond, but Green is such a unicorn, so I won't use his name here, but instead offer stronger Matt Barnes
• he's excellent to get finishes around the basket (.836% in rim attempts, to be fair, whole Cincinnati team can't miss inside as out of 10 rotation players 8 have above .700 around the basket), and from mid-range (.493 on non-rim 2s); his 3pt shot is slowly improves: he's not gonna be a threat from deep for a couple of years at least but he's getting there step-by-step.
• his main contribution offensively besides cleaning the boards and putbacks is his passing: 3.6 ass./40 minutes with 2+ A/TO ratio.
  
• excellent athlete PF, who lacks a bit of length, but is the best defender on top-10 defensive team in the country. Routinely ends up on perimeter defending guards.
• good offensive rebounder, but defensive numbers are hurt due to role similar to WCS.
• not being a good scorer is usually a cut-off feature, that stops people from being an effective pro, that's why no one is paying any attention to Clark, BUT: he's an excellent defender, excellent passer, can finish and shoot, makes smart decisions on the court. Guys like Haslem or Barnes were able to carve themselves careers by being smart complimentary players.

My favourite "sleeper" at this point is Sindarius Thornwell from South Carolina. Thornwell has a build similar with Oladipo: he's probably 6'4" at best, but has short neck, long arms and is very strong, so at 210 he's fine for a guard, and even some SF in 3 guard lineups. Unlike 'dipo Thornwell was the only talent on his team, so despite always being capable of things like
he was never considered a major prospect, posting dismal shooting %s in mid-30s.
This year SC got their second elite recruit in the last 10 years, plus all the major players improved enough, that SC is all of a sudden ranked and arguably the best defensive team in the country. When college seniors get huge seasons on their way out, it usually means they get much bigger offensive role and just have much better volume numbers. While Thornwell did get to use about 3 possessions more this season, his scoring jumped up by 6 points on the heels of much improved shooting (.409 3p%, .848 FT%). Thing is playing for a competitive team he massively improved his defensive stats as well: +2 reb, + 0.8 st, + 0.6 bl. Obviously he's the same guy from previous seasons, that simply got interested in playing defense to the fullest and using his athleticism on that end as well.
As for skillset:

• Thornwell's a drive first guy, relying mostly on his power, putting his opponent on the hip and bringing him to the basket, but he's also very quick in straight line drives as well. When the defender is able to slow him down, his efficiency drops massively. Thornwell doesn't have floaters/teardrops in his arsenal, and his mid-range on the move plain sucks, so he will never be a star scorer, though this would be a strange expectation for a guy, who's right now projected to go undrafted.
  
• shot improvement not only brought better looking form, but also much quicker release to the point, that he might do really well sticking to Rockets mantra of either 3s or inside finishes/FTs with both being equally effective weapons
  
• being quick, strong and long, Thornwell obviously has excellent defensive potential. When his shot is not falling - and that's becoming less of an occurrence with his set shot lately - he still has tough defense and rebounding/second chance finishes to fall back on. Plus his aggressive style of play/motor gets him to FT line very often, despite not being unstoppable slasher/scorer.

P.S Wrote this 5 days ago, but forgot to click "Post Reply", and:

• 2 days NWG went off for 33p+7r+4a+3st on 12-18 shooting, and his team needed every point to put down BYU.
• today Clark had probably the best game of his career 20(2-4 from 3)+11(4 off.)+3(0 TOs)+2bl(0 PFs) in 29 minutes in dispatching of UConn
  
• Thornwell missed all kinds of shots from mid-range, but still finished with 18p thanks to 4-7 3pt shooting, adding 3 off.rebounds and 3 steals
• Donovan Mittchell continued strong play with 19+3+3+4st line in a blowout

P.S.2 NWGs teammate, 7'/230 freshman Zach Collins had 14p(1-1 from 3, 5-7FTs)+8r+1bl in just 19 minutes. I would say, that right now he's the best big prospect in the country: per40 numbers are 24.5p (0.4-1.2 3pt and 7.8-10 FTs per 40)+13.3r+1.4s+3.4b. Yes, he also has almost 1/3 A/TO ration and 5.6PFs per 40, but those are passable for a young big, who can finish/get a lot of contact inside, shoot from outside and rebound/defend.

P.S.3 Caleb Swanigan does look like smaller Boogie: ground bound and not fluid, but still willing his team to the win with thumping and bumping.

Excellent write up Gilles. Well done! Your preaching to the choir with me when it comes to Gonzaga. One of my favorite teams to watch, and they don't get the press other teams do. Hell, most people don't even know that they're undefeated so far this year, and it's not as though they've played a cupcake schedule. Nigel Goss is having a terrific year, and he's a big reason why they're undefeated. I wish Zach Collins would get more minutes, but your right, he may be one of, if not the most talented player to play for Gonzaga. Gonzaga and St. Mary's both turn out their share of NBA players. Of course the looming question is, does Karnowski have a future in the NBA? I feel for him since he looks like a dinasour to today's NBA.

What do you think of Justin Patton? He's been a very nice surprise this season, although I think the loss of Watson has hurt him. Another one of those players that went from 6'3" to 7 foot overnight, and kept some of their guard skills. Skills, that if your a guard don't necessarily make you stand out, but if your 7 foot, they do. Similar to Anthony Davis, and I'm not making a comparison in talent. The other side of that coin could be Jason Thompson. Anyway, I've been very impressed with Patton so far. Seems to have a very good feel for the game.

I would say, Patton and Collins are pretty close to me: Patton has better handles, but Collins is much better shooter atm. Handles are harder to develop, but Collins may not really need those at the next level: just roll/make yourself a target for an oop or pop and then just run on defense. Patton is probably more agile and will be more effective defending outside. Collins sets really wide screens. Both need a lot of strength.

I don't see, how Shemek gets an NBA job. Saw game vs BYU on Youtube today, and one of broadcasting crew said very funny thing: "Karnowski went down in stages: first, knees, then waist, then torso, then head" He's too big. Can find a place in Europe probably.
Speaking of Europe, one of my favourite guys from last draft, Robert Carter jr, who went undrafted, is doing fine job in Italy to the tune of 20p+9r per 40 minutes on very good percentages, including lots of 3s, while adding 1.5 assists, steals and blocks in 40. TOs are still a problem, but mainly he doesn't look like he's in top shape, which might be a persistent problem, just look at Sullinger. Still his shape is good enough for 25+ minutes of Italian basketball, that involves a lot of running. With Willie not likely to be featured in the next Summer League, I would definitely give Carter a spot alongside Skal and Papa in Vegas.

I know it's dumb to group guys together, but I think Collins falls in the line of the Plumlees. All solid bigs, but nothing spectacular. Probably a ceiling of a good starting C.
With that being said, those guys are definitely worth 1st rounders. I think Collins goes somewhere between 19-30.

In regards to Patton, I personally think he's the best C in this draft, and Collins is a good foot behind. Patton can be really special..the number of ways he can score is insane

Whole Plumlee clan managed 4-12 from 3 in 7+k minutes, Zach is 5-13 in 418. Every other stat (we are talking about rates, of course, as middle Plumlee was a force in college his final year) is at least as good as best of the set, Mason, got as a senior, so if you tell me, Collins is improved version of Miles Plumlee, who can also shoot, well, he's lottery at least.

man...lottery is a tough sell. I could certainly see why. Athletic big man who displays mid-range, rebounding, and shot blocking. I was thinking of Mason with a jumper too. It's a tough reminder that Plumlee was a 4-year player, and Collins is only 19. Was not expecting Collins to contribute this much yet. I thought he could be a 2, or 3 year player. Looks like he might be a 1 and done. In a draft missing Cs, he could definitely rise up.

Thoughts on Wisconsin PF, Ethan Happ??

The guy is such an amazing college player... it's really indescribable(vid posted at bottom). With that, I don't know how he'll be able to translate to the next level. His breed of offense is dying in the NBA.
6'10, 230lbs
26.6min:
On these shooting splits:
60/0/50 -yikes.

Looking at shooting stats alone, you can tell that he has no sign of a jumper. Absolutely none, and it's backed by his poor FT%. Also looking at his stats, you can also see that he doesn't do a very good job protecting the rim. 1blk/game isn't bad, but it's not great. However, he does do a good job scoring, rebounding, passing, and stealing.
Looking past stats:
He has a decent frame, but definitely needs to put my bulk on it for the NBA. He is a good athlete who shows solid lateral quickness. His side-t0-side speed isn't nearly as quick as his straight line speed. On offense, he's an amazing post-scorer. He has elite footwork in the post. He shows a lot of patience, and knows how to direct the defender when he has his back towards him. He can turn on either shoulder, while comfortable finishing with either hand(more right hand). He has good touch at the rim, but relies more on his footwork and quickness to get him in scoring position. He has good ball handling skills for a big man(PG in HS), but he tends to get a little sloppy at times. He's a tremendous passer from the post. In the first Wisconsin vs. Indiana matchup, I counted 5 "potential" assists in the first 13minutes of the game alone. He does a good job of feeling for when the double team is coming, and passing it to the open man. He also does a good job kicking out to shooters. Here comes the biggest problem, he's a non-shooter. No jumper to speak of, and doesn't take any 3pt shots, let alone mid range(from games I've watched). He has an extremely odd FT stroke that will need mechanical fixing. Last year, he shot 64% at the FT, while only 50% this year(on the same amount of attempts). With the new wave of PFs, you definitely want a guy who can spread the floor, and this is the biggest red flag when it comes to Happ. No jumper, and struggles a lot at the FT line.

On defense, he'll need to put a bit more strength. He does a good job of holding his own in the post, but he often reverts to trying to swipe the ball away, instead of maintaining position(think of Cousins). As a perimeter defender, he doesn't do a good job for someone with his speed and athleticism. He moves his feet like a Center would, when trying to contain the perimeter. I think this could easily be coached up, because he definitely has the physical profile to guard out in the perimeter. He puts his hands up while sliding his feet. As a shot-blocker, he doesn't have great leaping ability. He relies more on anticipation. At the most, I only see him as a weak-side helper. As a rebounder, he's surprisingly really good. He's good with the fundamentals of boxing out.

Here's his highlight video vs. Rutgers. You'll see amazing footwork with a good combination of speed:

Completely opinionated:
I think he could be special in the NBA. The guy just knows how to play the game. He knows how to pick his spots on the floor, and he has one of the most advanced footwork we've seen in a long time. The thing is, I just don't know if he'll be able to fit the NBA. Post moves are nice and all, but in general, it's completely outdated from modern NBA. There are a few exceptions, but most of those exceptions are centers with post moves, not PFs. I think Happ has the athleticism and quickness to actually play SF in the NBA. He doesn't have a lot of vertical jumping, but he seems to be fairly good athlete. DX completely disagrees with this, as they say They have unranked, and as their #29 sophomore. CBS says: They have him as their #17 in latest mock.
If Happ had any glimpse of a jumper, he'd be a top 10 pick. However, if Rondo had a 3pt shot, he'd be top 10 GOAT pg. I really like him, I'm just not sure if he's NBA material. Thoughts? I actually held off on writing about him, but seeing him dominate Indiana twice, really just did it for me.

Yeah, I liked Carter a lot as well. I'd love to see him on our summer league team. I thought the Maryland team suffered from poor coaching and a PG that was a bit too selfish for me at times. As a result I don't think Carter was used properly. I agree on Karnowski. I doubt he'll ever see an NBA floor.

Happ has a lot of skills and a ton of stuff behind the ears, and Larry Nance has already shown, that you can survive at PF if you have smarts and motor. He's just a basketball player.
He will be cheated off of on offense though, so if you have a guy, who likes to live in the paint and around, like Boogie, having Happ is almost a non-starter, but teams with a lot of shooting can incorporate him with great success.

Yeah, he's a very talented PF, but as you say, how does his particular talent translate to today's NBA. At the moment he's strictly a Post player. That's not to say he won't develop more game away from the basket, but that's what makes players like Patton and Collins appealing, is that they already have a game away from the basket. Amazing how much the game has changed, and how that changes the way you look at future prospects.

Virginia vs Louisville showed loud and clear, that Donovan Mitchell is not a 1-on-1 player. Virginia is a really fascinating team: not that athletic, never pressure you, but they are disciplined, rebound as a team, you can never get truly open, and there are always hands near you to make you uncomfortable and distracted. Would be fun to watch Malik Monk to try and score on them.

As for Mitchell until late in the game Louisville never made an effort to help him, and only a couple of shots he took were ok opportunities. In the middle of the second half there was a stretch when Mitchell got at least a couple of screens every time, which give him enough room to earn 4 or 5 fouls in a row. Defense was always there though: 4 steals and many contested/denied shots.

VJ King will probably be an NBA player as he's just an all-around scorer, but he's weak and a defensive liability.

Isaiah Wilkins is another possible NBA player: excellent athlete, who uses his physical tools to the fullest defending and hustling. Not a lot of offensive ability, but his shot is slowly coming along to complement his off the ball movement.

Lonzo's younger brother Lamelo Ball just scored 92 in a highschool game. Lonzo might not be the most talented Ball'er in his family.

I believe their father recently said that all 3 of his sons would be one-&-done players.

I suspect that the Plumlee family is now planning more children. But, unfortunately, there are no Ball's in that family..