Will Rudy still opt out?

#31
You wouldn't think that Rudy would opt out, but there's various reasons to think he will.

Both Matthews and Parsons got paid after major injuries. Rondo got a one year deal after flaming out. If Rudy decides to sacrifice a bit and become a PF in the league, then his injury will be less of a dropoff. He'd essentially counteract the loss in explosion by swapping to a slower position. Also, if he opts in and takes a long recovery, teams might question the severity of the injury.

So, amazingly, he may still look at opting out. Depends on what docs tell him about recovery and what Rudy wants to do in the next few years.
 
#32
You wouldn't think that Rudy would opt out, but there's various reasons to think he will.

Both Matthews and Parsons got paid after major injuries. Rondo got a one year deal after flaming out. If Rudy decides to sacrifice a bit and become a PF in the league, then his injury will be less of a dropoff. He'd essentially counteract the loss in explosion by swapping to a slower position. Also, if he opts in and takes a long recovery, teams might question the severity of the injury.

So, amazingly, he may still look at opting out. Depends on what docs tell him about recovery and what Rudy wants to do in the next few years.
Good points.
 

VF21

Super Moderator Emeritus
SME
#33
You wouldn't think that Rudy would opt out, but there's various reasons to think he will.

Both Matthews and Parsons got paid after major injuries. Rondo got a one year deal after flaming out. If Rudy decides to sacrifice a bit and become a PF in the league, then his injury will be less of a dropoff. He'd essentially counteract the loss in explosion by swapping to a slower position. Also, if he opts in and takes a long recovery, teams might question the severity of the injury.

So, amazingly, he may still look at opting out. Depends on what docs tell him about recovery and what Rudy wants to do in the next few years.
To play devil's advocate a bit:
1. Matthews and Parsons were both younger when their injuries occurred.
2. Rondo got a one-year deal with the Kings.
3. Not sure what you mean by his injury will be "less of a dropoff" if he becomes a PF. With his injury, isn't it usually a case where you come back almost all the way or not at all?
4. If he opts in and takes a long recovery, he might well decide not to come back at all. He'd be almost 32 with a young family.

Like I say, just playing devil's advocate...
 
#34
on #3, Wes isn't back all the way though he's started to regain some usefulness. Matthews lost a step, but has regained his shooting stroke. His IQ helps him on defense, but he's not the same defender either. (Sorry Cuban) So I don't think it's all or nothing. Rudy can still be quick enough for 4s and do the Paul Pierce thing.
 
#35
To play devil's advocate a bit:
1. Matthews and Parsons were both younger when their injuries occurred.
2. Rondo got a one-year deal with the Kings.
3. Not sure what you mean by his injury will be "less of a dropoff" if he becomes a PF. With his injury, isn't it usually a case where you come back almost all the way or not at all?
4. If he opts in and takes a long recovery, he might well decide not to come back at all. He'd be almost 32 with a young family.

Like I say, just playing devil's advocate...
As for 3 - Players don't usually come back "almost all the way". They are generally never the same player. Chauncey Billups and Kobe Bryant come to mind. And it doesn't help that Achilles tears almost always happen to guys over 30, making a physical recovery harder.

As for 4 - the "normal" recovery time is 9-12 months. Hard to see Rudy taking the whole year off and then retiring. Especially in this new era of exploding salaries. Even coming off an Achilles tear and 70% of the player he was, Rudy could probably sign a 2 year deal at $10 million a year and potentially more depending on how he looks when he returns.

He could decide to hang it up but I wouldn't bet that way.
 

VF21

Super Moderator Emeritus
SME
#36
As for 3 - Players don't usually come back "almost all the way". They are generally never the same player. Chauncey Billups and Kobe Bryant come to mind. And it doesn't help that Achilles tears almost always happen to guys over 30, making a physical recovery harder.

As for 4 - the "normal" recovery time is 9-12 months. Hard to see Rudy taking the whole year off and then retiring. Especially in this new era of exploding salaries. Even coming off an Achilles tear and 70% of the player he was, Rudy could probably sign a 2 year deal at $10 million a year and potentially more depending on how he looks when he returns.

He could decide to hang it up but I wouldn't bet that way.
Fair enough. Bottom line for me, however, is that I still see no way he opts out.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#37
Fair enough. Bottom line for me, however, is that I still see no way he opts out.
Well, I'll be stunned if he opts out now, but, I guess you never know. I do know people that have suffered that injury, and it took both of them over a year to get back on the field. Of course there have been advancements in many areas of surgery, so maybe it takes less time now. I do think it's an individual thing and how one person recovers doesn't necessarily apply to another person. If we could take a look at Rudy's history of recovery over the years we might acquire some insight. Some players seem made out of rubber, while others not so much. One thing I know for sure, the older you get, the more brittle you become. I speak from experience..........
 

Capt. Factorial

trifolium contra tempestatem subrigere certum est
Staff member
#38
Just for completeness (though I don't think anybody expected any different), the MRI confirms that Rudy suffered a full rupture of his achilles tendon (link).
 
#39
as the salary cap has skyrocketed and teams have had to throw crazy money around just to hit the salary floor, sizable expiring contracts have lost most of their value as trade assets.
Once this summer comes and goes, most teams will be maxed out on crazy contracts.

Come Summer 2018, when the salary cap won't jump as much, teams will be looking for creative ways to make cap space.

The two big jumps in salary cap was last year and this summer, come summer 2018, expiring contracts will be useful by 2018 again as trade bait.
 
#40
Sad news for Rudy, hope he recovers and finds his way back on court in the future.

As for whether he will opt-in or opt-out, well, I'd say due to this injury he would be unlikely to turn down $14.2 million. Could he get a contract in free agency six months from now? Perhaps, but it would likely be less than that amount due to him coming off a serious injury and unlikely to be ready for the start of the season. For me, he will opt-in for the pay day and take his recovery slowly and try to get back on court sometime next season, but not rush back to ensure he's really ready. I think the result of that will be us trading his expiring contract at some pint next season, then in 2018 Rudy will most likely start his transition to an NBA role player.
 
#42
IMO Rudy will opt in and come back and play for the Kings about this time next season.

By then we will know more about the Rookies and Bogdan. We will see who the Kings have playing PG since there are none currently signed for next season. Boogie will sign the Mega-deal this summer.

I still think a trade could be done. WCS, Ben, Omri and Darren might all get moved.
 
#43
Fair enough. Bottom line for me, however, is that I still see no way he opts out.
I think it's very unlikely.

He (and his agent) would have to believe that there's a team out there that would sign him to a multi-year deal starting at, near or above the 1
$14 million he's slated to make with the Kings.

Even with the skyrocketing salary cap and all the teams with caproom I don't see anybody gambling on a 31 year old Rudy Gay who will likely miss half of next season recovering from an Achilles tear. But then again, it seems every time I think there's not a GM in the NBA dumb enough to do something one rises to the challenge.

I think the most likely scenario is that Rudy opts in, is very cautious with his rehab and tries to return after the all-star break next season with the intent of showing enough to sign one last 3-4 year NBA contract.
 
#44
I think it's very unlikely.

He (and his agent) would have to believe that there's a team out there that would sign him to a multi-year deal starting at, near or above the 1
$14 million he's slated to make with the Kings.

Even with the skyrocketing salary cap and all the teams with caproom I don't see anybody gambling on a 31 year old Rudy Gay who will likely miss half of next season recovering from an Achilles tear. But then again, it seems every time I think there's not a GM in the NBA dumb enough to do something one rises to the challenge.

I think the most likely scenario is that Rudy opts in, is very cautious with his rehab and tries to return after the all-star break next season with the intent of showing enough to sign one last 3-4 year NBA contract.
He and his agent might not get a contract starting at the amount he's owed from us next season. However, he could be tempted by the security of a longer contract even if the salary was slightly down: e.g. 3 year $30 million, with a player option in the third year. It's less per year, but there's security there. Would another team do it? I wouldn't if I was in charge of a team, but like you said, there always seems to be one GM that makes a questionable move.
 

dude12

Hall of Famer
#45
that's sort of what i mean by "lost most of their value." the above package is... not great. i was never among ricky rubio's biggest fans when he was drafted by minnesota, but his value across the league has plummeted as the game has evolved in the last half-decade. ball dominant PG's who monopolize a team's assist numbers are no longer much of a prize in a contemporary nba landscape where team-wide ball movement is so important. that value drops even further when said PG can't shoot worth a damn. rubio is slightly more valuable than rajon rondo on the court in 2017, because rubio's still an above-average defender at the position. but his injury history is enough to square the two of them, in my mind. i would not trade for rubio at this point, especially right after the rajon rondo experiment flamed out in sacramento.
I was referring more to expiring contracts than Rubio....I think there is still some value in them. But it expends on the situation I guess
 

VF21

Super Moderator Emeritus
SME
#46
He and his agent might not get a contract starting at the amount he's owed from us next season. However, he could be tempted by the security of a longer contract even if the salary was slightly down: e.g. 3 year $30 million, with a player option in the third year. It's less per year, but there's security there. Would another team do it? I wouldn't if I was in charge of a team, but like you said, there always seems to be one GM that makes a questionable move.
But he's already under contract to him. :p
 

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
#48
I don't see him opting out but I wouldn't be surprised if he did either way. Matthews recovered from an achilles injury himself last season and took a while to return to form but I don't see why Gay can't do the same. He might not make as much as he hoped for, but none the less, if not the Kings, then there will be a team that will take a flier on him.
 

VF21

Super Moderator Emeritus
SME
#49
I don't see him opting out but I wouldn't be surprised if he did either way. Matthews recovered from an achilles injury himself last season and took a while to return to form but I don't see why Gay can't do the same. He might not make as much as he hoped for, but none the less, if not the Kings, then there will be a team that will take a flier on him.
Take a moment to read those articles. In MOST cases, the player who suffered the Achilles injury never returned to anything like "form"...
 

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
#50
I don't see him opting out but I wouldn't be surprised if he did either way. Matthews recovered from an achilles injury himself last season and took a while to return to form but I don't see why Gay can't do the same. He might not make as much as he hoped for, but none the less, if not the Kings, then there will be a team that will take a flier on him.
Hesitate and you are lost...the Kings always hesitate at the wrong times, now we are likely screwed.

HOWEVER, the one hope here is that if I were Rudy's agent I would be thinking of precisely the Wes Matthews situation, and hoping against hope that somehow I would find a couple of teams so desperate they were willing to drop a giant contract on Rudy this summer even with the injury. The fact is that contract is going to be MUCH less likely after next season when Rudy comes back, struggles to score 13-14 a game on lower percentages, and is not himself. Which is the norm in achilles' cases. So if I can possibly find a sucker buyer now, this summer? I'm telling Rudy to take it and settle in stealing money through his twilight years. Nothing worse than an achilles victim having to get paid what he is actually worth.

The difference of course is that Matthews was a cause celebre to the point of being overrated. Rudy is almost the opposite. And the Mavs should be out of the idiot business this summer. Maybe you can con a desperate New Orleans team or some such. Otherwise, we'll be stuck paying him now.
 
#53
It's early June. Nate Duncan and Danny Leroux think he will still opt out and get a 3-4 year deal at 10mm per and be able to choose his destination vs letting kings trade him next year after opting in
 
#59
Sean Cunningham ‏@SeanCunningham 34m34 minutes ago
Following Monday's surgery to repair his Achilles, Kings SF Rudy Gay makes a bold statement regarding his recovery
He can opt out in July, so I think this means he intends to opt out, unless there are complications. What a colossal blunder this all was by Vivek...he needs to stay in SF with his Warriors pals and stay the hell away from basketball operations here.