Yahoo: Bobcats offering Wallace to Kings for Miller (Yahoo! Sports)
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I think that would be a great trade for us -- there's no one we can realistically target in 2010 anyway, Wallace's contract is a relative bargain for the type of player he is, Miller is on the way out anyway, we already have young players at the C, PF, and SG positions but SF is still a position of need (unless you believe Salmons/Garcia is the future). Not to mention Wallace is my favorite player 
. The only reason I would be at all reluctant is the risk of ruining our one shot at a really good draft pick. We've got a legitimate shot at Rubio or Jennings if we stay where we are. For this trade to work, Salmons needs to go too. He's having a career year, I'm sure someone will be willing to take on his contract. Then Wallace simply slides into Salmons' spot in the lineup.
If this is really on our table and we turned it down, I don't understand what Petrie is thinking. There's no point keeping Miller. We do have a lot of wing players, but Martin and Salmons basically do the same things. Once Martin gets back, Salmons' scoring is going to fall back down to earth. He should be shopping him like crazy right now. Wallace is a better defender than anyone else on our team, and he's younger than Salmons and Garcia. You want a young, atheltic, fast-break team that defends, and putting Wallace next to Martin in the lineup sounds like a bad idea? Huh?
. The only reason I would be at all reluctant is the risk of ruining our one shot at a really good draft pick. We've got a legitimate shot at Rubio or Jennings if we stay where we are. For this trade to work, Salmons needs to go too. He's having a career year, I'm sure someone will be willing to take on his contract. Then Wallace simply slides into Salmons' spot in the lineup.If this is really on our table and we turned it down, I don't understand what Petrie is thinking. There's no point keeping Miller. We do have a lot of wing players, but Martin and Salmons basically do the same things. Once Martin gets back, Salmons' scoring is going to fall back down to earth. He should be shopping him like crazy right now. Wallace is a better defender than anyone else on our team, and he's younger than Salmons and Garcia. You want a young, atheltic, fast-break team that defends, and putting Wallace next to Martin in the lineup sounds like a bad idea? Huh?
I think that would be a great trade for us -- there's no one we can realistically target in 2010 anyway, Wallace's contract is a relative bargain for the type of player he is, Miller is on the way out anyway, we already have young players at the C, PF, and SG positions but SF is still a position of need (unless you believe Salmons/Garcia is the future). Not to mention Wallace is my favorite player . The only reason I would be at all reluctant is the risk of ruining our one shot at a really good draft pick. We've got a legitimate shot at Rubio or Jennings if we stay where we are. For this trade to work, Salmons needs to go too. He's having a career year, I'm sure someone will be willing to take on his contract. Then Wallace simply slides into Salmons' spot in the lineup.
. The only reason I would be at all reluctant is the risk of ruining our one shot at a really good draft pick. We've got a legitimate shot at Rubio or Jennings if we stay where we are. For this trade to work, Salmons needs to go too. He's having a career year, I'm sure someone will be willing to take on his contract. Then Wallace simply slides into Salmons' spot in the lineup.
I do agree with Brick though that we don't have a realistic shot of landing a top tier FA in 2010 (half the league is getting under the cap for 2010, and the other half shall get under if their star players change teams). We could have had a shot if we were an elite team. Unless the kids show dramatic improvement and promise, why would a top tier FA want to come here?
Despite this, I don't think this trade is a good idea. As much as I love GW, he has a history of injuries. Coupled with the fact that his contract is quite long, and he fills a position that we are RELATIVELY better off at, we should explore other options.
Our three best trade pieces are
- Brad: Contract expires next year. Can still help a team that is good. If we can get expiring + picks for him (e.g. from Cavs), that would be a better option.
- Salmons: He has been playing quite well lately. Wonder if teams like Spurs or Raps are watching. Again, getting some expiring + prospects/picks would be a good idea.
- Miki: He is guaranteed only $2M next year, making his contract lucrative. A team that wishes to avoid tax next year might be interested.
You make some good points, and I don't disagree with any particular one. We are relatively well off at SF, that is to say that we have some reasonably good options for a non-playoff team and we're getting more production out of that position than the others right now. But all of those options I think are fairly limited in their potential moving forward:
Garcia is a good player starting or off the bench, but likely we're seeing him at his prime right now. He may eventually make a great sixth man when he learns to play within himself a little better.
Salmons is a great scorer, but has yet to show that he can be effective in a complimentary role. I put him in the same category as Shareef. If you give him the ball every time down the court he'll put up huge numbers, but you won't win a lot of games with him as your leading scorer. That's not exactly a knock on him, just an observation that he doesn't fit very well into the team game. He's also at his peak right now while this team is still a couple years away.
Donte Greene is still a total mystery. I really like his potential, but he figures to be a long scorer and an occasional rebounder at his best, and not much of a factor on the defensive end.
All of those guys are good players, but not somebody you pencil into a starting lineup that scares people in the playoffs. Greene might eventually get there, and I would understand putting him into the lineup regularly and seeing what he can become. But I still have serious questions about his ability to play defense and this team is already commited to weak defenders at several key positions.
Wallace, besides being younger than Garcia and Salmons, has more star potential than all of them. He's already a top notch defender and has been effective both as a big-time scorer and a complimentary player in Charlotte. His contract is cheaper than he would command on the open market. The health issues are a real red flag, and I would understand staying away for that reason. It's no doubt a factor in why Charlotte is shopping him right now in the first place. But all things being equal, I look at the future of this team -- Martin, Hawes, Thompson, Greene, Garcia -- and I still see a real need at SF that Wallace would fill. Put Martin and Wallace at the wings and you start to have an exploitable advantage in speed and athleticism over just about every team out there. On the other side, Wallace is the ultimate help defender which allows everyone else to play better man-to-man. That's the beginnings of an identity you can build around. And that's the intangible that makes it worthwhile for me.
Garcia is a good player starting or off the bench, but likely we're seeing him at his prime right now. He may eventually make a great sixth man when he learns to play within himself a little better.
Salmons is a great scorer, but has yet to show that he can be effective in a complimentary role. I put him in the same category as Shareef. If you give him the ball every time down the court he'll put up huge numbers, but you won't win a lot of games with him as your leading scorer. That's not exactly a knock on him, just an observation that he doesn't fit very well into the team game. He's also at his peak right now while this team is still a couple years away.
Donte Greene is still a total mystery. I really like his potential, but he figures to be a long scorer and an occasional rebounder at his best, and not much of a factor on the defensive end.
All of those guys are good players, but not somebody you pencil into a starting lineup that scares people in the playoffs. Greene might eventually get there, and I would understand putting him into the lineup regularly and seeing what he can become. But I still have serious questions about his ability to play defense and this team is already commited to weak defenders at several key positions.
Wallace, besides being younger than Garcia and Salmons, has more star potential than all of them. He's already a top notch defender and has been effective both as a big-time scorer and a complimentary player in Charlotte. His contract is cheaper than he would command on the open market. The health issues are a real red flag, and I would understand staying away for that reason. It's no doubt a factor in why Charlotte is shopping him right now in the first place. But all things being equal, I look at the future of this team -- Martin, Hawes, Thompson, Greene, Garcia -- and I still see a real need at SF that Wallace would fill. Put Martin and Wallace at the wings and you start to have an exploitable advantage in speed and athleticism over just about every team out there. On the other side, Wallace is the ultimate help defender which allows everyone else to play better man-to-man. That's the beginnings of an identity you can build around. And that's the intangible that makes it worthwhile for me.
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I read your entire post, but I found this part to be the most interesting. You make Wallace seem like the final piece, too take us to the Finals.
Two questions: If he's all that, then why are they willing to trade him for a 31yr old, over the hill center? But, more importantly, is this a move to improve us this year, or next year , or some unknown number of years into the future?
Every year we wait to clear Miller & K9's contracts cost us cap space. Between the pay increase each player gets evey year and the draft choices we add, our base salary goes up. If we wait for K9's contract to expire in 2010, the $3M in cap space from trading Wallace for Miller and K9's $8.8M will be worth less than the MLE.
As it is right now, our 09/10 salary will be around $61M, the Wallace trade drops us to $58M, so no FA in 09. Our base salary of 10/11, is scheduled to be $45M without the 09 & 10 draft choices which could easily add $10M which again leaves us with less than MLE cap space.
So, if we do the Wallace deal, we end up with the currect roster minus the expiring, three 1st rounders and what ever deal we can make to move Salmons. So, be absolutely sure, that he's the piece to take us to the Finals in 2011/2012 because other than the draft choices, that's all we'll be able to afford. And, there won't be any cap space in 11/12, unless we don't resign our present rookies.
Two questions: If he's all that, then why are they willing to trade him for a 31yr old, over the hill center? But, more importantly, is this a move to improve us this year, or next year , or some unknown number of years into the future?
Every year we wait to clear Miller & K9's contracts cost us cap space. Between the pay increase each player gets evey year and the draft choices we add, our base salary goes up. If we wait for K9's contract to expire in 2010, the $3M in cap space from trading Wallace for Miller and K9's $8.8M will be worth less than the MLE.
As it is right now, our 09/10 salary will be around $61M, the Wallace trade drops us to $58M, so no FA in 09. Our base salary of 10/11, is scheduled to be $45M without the 09 & 10 draft choices which could easily add $10M which again leaves us with less than MLE cap space.
So, if we do the Wallace deal, we end up with the currect roster minus the expiring, three 1st rounders and what ever deal we can make to move Salmons. So, be absolutely sure, that he's the piece to take us to the Finals in 2011/2012 because other than the draft choices, that's all we'll be able to afford. And, there won't be any cap space in 11/12, unless we don't resign our present rookies.
Well, I certainly wouldn't say the 'final' piece. Not unless Hawes and Thompson miraculously blossom into All Stars overnight and Udrih finds his inner Chris Paul. But the question many of us are asking is who do we expect to sign in 2010 that would be better than Gerald Wallace? Once you take out Bosh, Lebron and Wade (all of whom can and will find better situations elsewhere) the best of the bunch are borderline All Stars. Maybe (unlikely) we can pry Joe Johnson away from Atlanta, but then he plays the same position as Martin. Who else on this list do you think is reasonably obtainable and a growing young star? Maybe Rudy Gay?
To address your questions though...
First of all, I don't know why Charlotte is shopping Wallace. Cutting costs? Worried about injury risks? Trying to shake up the roster? I think it's an idiotic move on their part considering he's still very young and probably the best player on their team (though Okafor seems to be waking up lately) but that's their call. Why did Chicago trade Tyson Chandler for nothing? Why did Phoenix give away Rondo when they needed another PG? These are all questions I can't answer. Sometimes GMs make bad moves. Is this one of them? I think so, but only time will tell.
Is this a move to improve us now or in the future? I think the primary motivation is the future. Next season and the season after that most tangibly, and hopefully 5 years down the line as well if Wallace's health holds up. Wallace is one year older than Martin so he would fit in with the young core of the team. I would expect we'd get a little bit better this season if Salmons stays and not much change if Salmons leaves, but either way it won't be enough to really matter. Losing just puts us in better draft position at this point. Worst case scenario we turn it around in a big way and move ourselves up to 9th or 10th in the west and a drafting position around 10th or 11th again. We already figure to get better when Martin comes back anyway. And maybe all that winning would breathe some life back into Arco. That would be a gamble though. I don't think Wallace alone is enough to propel us out of mid-lottery range.
The Finals, well, that's looking pretty bleak regardless with LA, New Orleans, and Portland stocking up the way they are. The idea at this point is to return to putting a winning basketball team on the floor. Not aging vets from a previous era either, but young players who are developing at the same time. Then you just see what happens with the rest of the league and wait for your opportunity. We need at least one high draft pick (hopefully this year) before the Finals are even a remote possibility. But swapping out Salmons/Garcia/Greene for Wallace and sliding the rest to the bench is a step in the right direction.
As far as capspace, even adding in 11 million for Wallace would leave us about 15-20 million under the cap from what I can tell. And that's assuming Beno and Salmons are both still here. Kenny, Shareef, Bobby, Mikki, and Shelden are all gone by then. 15-20 million is plenty to add anyone not named Bosh, Lebron, Amare, or Wade. If we somehow end up with a top 5 pick this year and next that adds a lot of salary for sure, but that's not salary I would be afraid of. Hopefully it's associated with players that will take you deep into the playoffs. At that point hopefully we would already have the key pieces and we could abandon the "max contract free agent" plan all together. And lastly, as others have pointed out, Gerald Wallace would not be the one costing us cap space, it would be the mid-level deals we gave to Salmons, Udrih, and Garcia. I wouldn't have done that, but it's been done regardless so we just have to make the best of it. I don't think you turn down one of the best young SFs in the game because you've already committed 15 million plus to a trio of borderline starters. That's just compounding a mistake and making it worse.
To address your questions though...
First of all, I don't know why Charlotte is shopping Wallace. Cutting costs? Worried about injury risks? Trying to shake up the roster? I think it's an idiotic move on their part considering he's still very young and probably the best player on their team (though Okafor seems to be waking up lately) but that's their call. Why did Chicago trade Tyson Chandler for nothing? Why did Phoenix give away Rondo when they needed another PG? These are all questions I can't answer. Sometimes GMs make bad moves. Is this one of them? I think so, but only time will tell.
Is this a move to improve us now or in the future? I think the primary motivation is the future. Next season and the season after that most tangibly, and hopefully 5 years down the line as well if Wallace's health holds up. Wallace is one year older than Martin so he would fit in with the young core of the team. I would expect we'd get a little bit better this season if Salmons stays and not much change if Salmons leaves, but either way it won't be enough to really matter. Losing just puts us in better draft position at this point. Worst case scenario we turn it around in a big way and move ourselves up to 9th or 10th in the west and a drafting position around 10th or 11th again. We already figure to get better when Martin comes back anyway. And maybe all that winning would breathe some life back into Arco. That would be a gamble though. I don't think Wallace alone is enough to propel us out of mid-lottery range.
The Finals, well, that's looking pretty bleak regardless with LA, New Orleans, and Portland stocking up the way they are. The idea at this point is to return to putting a winning basketball team on the floor. Not aging vets from a previous era either, but young players who are developing at the same time. Then you just see what happens with the rest of the league and wait for your opportunity. We need at least one high draft pick (hopefully this year) before the Finals are even a remote possibility. But swapping out Salmons/Garcia/Greene for Wallace and sliding the rest to the bench is a step in the right direction.
As far as capspace, even adding in 11 million for Wallace would leave us about 15-20 million under the cap from what I can tell. And that's assuming Beno and Salmons are both still here. Kenny, Shareef, Bobby, Mikki, and Shelden are all gone by then. 15-20 million is plenty to add anyone not named Bosh, Lebron, Amare, or Wade. If we somehow end up with a top 5 pick this year and next that adds a lot of salary for sure, but that's not salary I would be afraid of. Hopefully it's associated with players that will take you deep into the playoffs. At that point hopefully we would already have the key pieces and we could abandon the "max contract free agent" plan all together. And lastly, as others have pointed out, Gerald Wallace would not be the one costing us cap space, it would be the mid-level deals we gave to Salmons, Udrih, and Garcia. I wouldn't have done that, but it's been done regardless so we just have to make the best of it. I don't think you turn down one of the best young SFs in the game because you've already committed 15 million plus to a trio of borderline starters. That's just compounding a mistake and making it worse.
Lets break it down as best we can, and see what we would have left.
These are the commited salaries after the 2009/2010 season.
Martin: 11,100,005.00
Beno: 6,478,000.00
Salmons: 5,808,000.00
Hawes: 2,974,320.00
Garcia: 5,500,000.00
Thompson: 2,178,000.00
Greene: 1,116,840.00
1st R,4th: 3,008,400.00
1st R,24th 933,500.00
Total: 39,097,000.00
Projected cap: 60 to 61 million
Projected cap space: 20 to 21 million.
Gerold Wallace: 9,500,000.00
Projected cap space: 10 to 11 million.
There also a 1st round pick for that year that enters into the mix. There's no doubt that a very good player can be aquired for 10 or 11 million. But it won't be a Wade or a James etc. But, we probably wern't going to get them anyway.
These are the commited salaries after the 2009/2010 season.
Martin: 11,100,005.00
Beno: 6,478,000.00
Salmons: 5,808,000.00
Hawes: 2,974,320.00
Garcia: 5,500,000.00
Thompson: 2,178,000.00
Greene: 1,116,840.00
1st R,4th: 3,008,400.00
1st R,24th 933,500.00
Total: 39,097,000.00
Projected cap: 60 to 61 million
Projected cap space: 20 to 21 million.
Gerold Wallace: 9,500,000.00
Projected cap space: 10 to 11 million.
There also a 1st round pick for that year that enters into the mix. There's no doubt that a very good player can be aquired for 10 or 11 million. But it won't be a Wade or a James etc. But, we probably wern't going to get them anyway.
I think we might be a decent chance to get Bosh or Amare. Not great but decent! Its still the flexibility that I would like to have going into that FA period. You never know who might be ready to listen and if you aquire enough good young players ready to take their game to the next level by then, a legitimate star might just think that he has a chance to win.
Toronto are a rabble. They don't have any good young players. They have Bosh and Calderon that are worth something. Everyone else is average or below average. Bosh will get tired of losing and will probably want out. Whether Sacramento can lure him or not is debatable. If we can get enough good young players around him, he might see that he has a chance of winning in Sacramento. By that time Hawes, Thompson, Greene, Garcia etc will all be better players than they are now.
Similarly with Amare, Shaq will be gone, Nash could be gone or on his last legs and Suns won't have much of a roster left. Amare might want to be the man on a winning team.
This is all of course dependant on how well we draft and develop these players in the mean time. We have some nice talent to work with and you would think that with another 3 or 4 draft picks until 2010, couple of those likely to be good lottery picks, Petrie will be able to get enough young talent on the roster. This could be a very attractive team for someone like Bosh and Amare that might want out.
We might not be much of a chance to pull it off but I would at least like to see us have the opportunity to try and pull it off and if in the mean time, we do get out franchise player through the draft, then all the better. We become a much more attractive option to many FAs.
Toronto are a rabble. They don't have any good young players. They have Bosh and Calderon that are worth something. Everyone else is average or below average. Bosh will get tired of losing and will probably want out. Whether Sacramento can lure him or not is debatable. If we can get enough good young players around him, he might see that he has a chance of winning in Sacramento. By that time Hawes, Thompson, Greene, Garcia etc will all be better players than they are now.
Similarly with Amare, Shaq will be gone, Nash could be gone or on his last legs and Suns won't have much of a roster left. Amare might want to be the man on a winning team.
This is all of course dependant on how well we draft and develop these players in the mean time. We have some nice talent to work with and you would think that with another 3 or 4 draft picks until 2010, couple of those likely to be good lottery picks, Petrie will be able to get enough young talent on the roster. This could be a very attractive team for someone like Bosh and Amare that might want out.
We might not be much of a chance to pull it off but I would at least like to see us have the opportunity to try and pull it off and if in the mean time, we do get out franchise player through the draft, then all the better. We become a much more attractive option to many FAs.
What I really do not get is why everyone is assuming that any of the top players will be left in FA. The way this usually works is that any intelligent GM will not let a star or superstar simply walk into FA and lose the value. They will work out a trade or sign and trade that keeps their team in the loop if they cannot work out a re-sign. And cap space does nothing to help a team looking to trade for a superstar/star. I am still unclear on this multi-team push to clear cap space for 2010. Valuable trade peices and expirings will have more value.
Again, LBJ, Wade, Bosh or even Amare will never go into FA. Bookmark it.
Again, LBJ, Wade, Bosh or even Amare will never go into FA. Bookmark it.
