Following Potential *2024* Draftees

One of Huerter or Monk will be gone by July 15 and I hope that Monte packages Davion because I think coming off the back half of this season he is going to be as high as we can sell him (save for maybe a sign and trade next offseason when he hits RFA but those tend not to yield much).

If we keep the #13 pick I like 2 wings right now:

- Ryan Dunn.

I know he is bad at shooting but I think he brings every other thing we need right now. He can be a DPOY candidate for the next 10 years if his shot allows him to be on the court +30 min. per game. Possibly a better prospect at the defensive end than other great defenders that we would love in our team right now like Herb Jones or Jaden McDaniels. I think he could be a Shawn Marion type of defender with more than 1.5 steals and blocks averages.

There also a lot of players that improve his shooting when they spend some years in the league like Herb, Derrick Jones Jr. or OG. It always seems to me as one of the easiest things a player can improve with work and pro coaching staff supervise. But that defensive instinct he has right now seems someway innate. And his form looks workable not a MKG type. With his defense, rebounds at both ends, interior finishing, intensity and athleticism he covers some of our biggest weeaknesses right now. If only Domas would be more open to shoot the 3... We also can play him as a small ball center when Domas is resting and sourround him with shooters like Huerter, Lyles ¿and Monk? in the second unit.

- Johny Furphy.

I really like him. Interesting stats since he began to start games with Kansas. Good size, good rebounder, intelligent, sneaky athleticism, promising shooter. He reminds me to a Trey Murphy or Franz Wagner style of player. And still very young. Maybe he needs 1 year at de G-League but I would like him even it could seem a reach picking him at #13.


Other options:

Tristan da Silva (low ceiling and skinny), Filipowski (can he play PF?), Tyler Smith (average or bad defender), Kevin McCullar (old), Ulrich Chomche (not proved).

Options I don't like:

Any guard (complete rotation if Monk comes back or Colby moment), Ja'Kobe Walter (Ben McLemore 2.0), Tijane Salaun (overrated, low IQ)

PD: Excuse me for my english.

Dunn could be a game changer but Monte generally chooses offense over defense

Yeah, I think Monte would need some offensive skills to pick someone in the lottery, but he could go defense in the 2nd round.

Isn’t the Davion Mitchell pick a significant counter example to Monte supposedly preferring offense in the lottery? Sure, it’s just one example, but Monte’s pick history is not really the largest sample either.

I think the only trend so far to notice in Monte's draft selections is that he seems to favor experience. Looking at rookie age and experience, Monte's picks (plus the undrafted Ellis) are:

Jahmi'us Ramsey - 19 - Freshman
Tyrese Haliburton - 20 - Sophomore
Robert Woodard III - 21 - Sophomore
Colby Jones - 21 - Junior
Keegan Murray - 22 - Sophomore
Neemias Queta - 22 - Junior
Davion Mitchell - 23 - Junior (+ transfer year)
**Keon Ellis - 23 - Senior
Jalen Slawson - 24 - 5th-yr-Senior

The three youngest guys in that group all came in his first draft.

Not that I think this necessarily means anything, for all we know Monte could go after Chomche in this draft, but he could just as easily go after Knecht. But the trend for now certainly seems to be older guys.

another view is Monte has tended to be risk adverse in his drafting strategy. That tends to lead towards guards as getting a top flight forward requires a top 5 pick or taking some risk.

Monte appears to be conservative in the first round (high floor with proven experience) and goes for a swing pick in the second round. Unfortunately, as his swings in the second round didn't pan out, he prefers to trade them if there's no one intriguing.

Then I think it's highly likely there won't be "issues."

I thought you were exaggerating but damn he looks like a more athletic Herb Jones. Defenders who can cover ground from the perimeter to the post are much needed in today's game. His recovery even if he gets beat is remarkable. Defends both on ball and off ball really well. He needs to get passable on offense.

what’s interesting about Herb is that he averaged only 7 points a game over 4 years in college and only shot decent from 3 one year (senior year) but that was only 35 percent on low volume. He comes to the pros and averages around 10 a game with only one good 3 point shooting year (this year at 41 percent). His first two years he was only at 33 percent. And yet he doesn’t get the Thybulle treatment.

one could make an argument that Dunn could be as good as Herb and at least on offense he can slash and jam. I would be surprised if Monte goes that route but I wouldn’t have to be talked into it at all. He could be special defensively

I was going to post something similar and basically say that McNair is likely considering upperclassman who can play SG, SF, or PF which leaves us with:

• PG/SG: Devin Carter
• SG/SF: Dalton Knecht
• SG/SF: Kevin McCullar Jr.
• SG/SF: Terrence Shannon Jr.
• SF/PF: Ryan Dunn
• SF/PF: Tristan Da Silva
• PF: Bobi Klintman

If McNair keeps the 13th pick, I wouldn't be surprised if he targets Da Silva or McCullar. However, I wouldn't be surprised if he tries to trade back and take someone like Bobi Klintman and Jalen Tyson.

jones showed his senior year he could shoot free throws at a passable level which made him much less of a risky pick than Dunn. We shall see what Monte does but I think Dunn is a more risky pick than Chomche.

The more I watch, the more I'd could easily convince myself that Devin Carter could be the steal of this draft. That type of player that lasts to that Kawhi range and you're like, how? He's got the tools on both ends hands down. He's one of the few non one dimensional players offensively in this entire draft. Watch him go top 5. haha.

Yeah, I'd be fine with us taking Carter in the unfortunate case that we already had confirmation that we'd be losing Malik in free agency. Drafting him and then having Malik come back would just put us in the uncomfortable situation of trying to fit Carter minutes into a rotation that already features Fox, Malik, Keon, Huerter, and Davion.

I watched a video where it was said that Dunn was a good shotter at HS with a plus 40% from beyond the arc. I don't know, but my feel is that Dunn would be a player who could contribute since the begging of his career even for him being so good at defense. And if he can improve in his shot could be a great piece to mix with our core.

We could face his issues with the shot at the beginning of his career using him as a small ball C next to Lyles with the second unit but having always on mind playing him next to Domas and Keegan if he can improve the shooting.

There are lot of cases of players who were able to fix it. Otto Porter for example, had a year in college with 22% from 3. His rookie season also shot under 20% and then he became a really good shooter. Even Kawhi had a 20 %3P season at college. And the potential of Dunn’s defense I think is worth a try. If he can fix those problems we have the perfect piece to minimize the Domas defensive issues.

On the other hand if the Kings don't get the job done running it back again, Carter might be the best option to have on the back burner as a piece to help restock around Fox/Domas or even for a rebuild. The Kings have roughly 2 years to get this done probably and after that it's retool time/reset time since Fox is off the books and even with him back they could maybe have some flexibility to work with if they time their re-signings right and don't kiss that bye bye on a long term re-signing of Monk. The fact is, anyone drafted at 13 probably isn't getting major minutes in Browns rotation next season unless they force it with their play or injuries happen. I mean, Ellis is a prime example, he got spotty backup PG minutes when he did play and once injuries and play made it the way to go Brown went with it.

The obvious comp for Dunn is drafting 101, let the schools do your math for you since they tend to scout and recruit similar players over the years so Trey Murphy III seems right. Dunn looks more like a slashing combo F without elite handling than a true wing right now and by about the same age Murphy was ahead skill wise so it would be a gamble to assume we're looking at the next Murphy but Monte was rumored to be reaching all the way up at 9 to draft Murphy IIRC so it's worth noting.

50 49 62 and 71 were his free throw percentages through 4 years. We can’t say what Dunn would do with 2 more college years but its not out of the the question he could put up those numbers or better.

Dunn at least has an elite skill, we aren’t talking Kessler either more like Thybulle. He also shoots 60 percent on twos so at least he can score on dunks and cuts. Chomche may have a higher ceiling but he doesn’t have an elite skill we know will translate. Right now he is just big and athletic.

This is where you get yourself into trouble by drafting for need.

I want the best damn player available. If it's Carter, you take him and you figure it out. We have no idea if Monk is coming back or not and it seems very likely Huerter is going to be heavily shopped this year. Davion is on the last year of his rookie deal; who knows what his future with the team is. Hell, even Fox is down to his last 2 years on his contract. I don't think he leaves, but he's not 100% locked up the next 5+ years. Keon is awesome, but he's basically like 27-30 games of being awesome in his career. That's not guaranteed to hold up either.

Drafting for need is the actual risk adverse strategy.

There are other SG FA who can cover the 6th man scorer role like Lonnie Walker or Gary Trent Jr. They are not so good as Monk creating for others but can contribute and even Monk wasn't that kind of guard before he came to Sacramento so maybe they can step up in that way if Brown requires it. And we can even give Colby a chance after a good season with Stockton who I think can be a solid player. Ellis, Huerter and Colby seems a legit rotation for me. But if Huerter is traded this summer and Monk sign with other team we still have some options at the FA market.

But where we have a hole is in the defensive end at the F position. Keegan stepped up in the right direction but we need more at the PF. A more interior presence who can block some shots and help at the weak side defense. Someone who can cares about the rival best forward every night so Keegan can be more focused and rested for attacking. I think his %3P fall from 41% to 36% was because of him having to work so hard with the rival stars at defense. If we can free him a little bit on that end he could be that third 20 pt player we need.

And those great defensive F are players than the other 29 teams are looking for too. Is hard to get a good one. If we have the chance of selecting a generational defensive talent like Dunn we have to make the move. And then try to teach him shooting with all our coaching resources.

college 3% has been shown to have a low correlation with pro success. Free throw percentage has the higher correlation.

if we had a bunch of forwards maybe. But given small for big trades are very hard to execute and people can get very good smaller guards later in the draft….

stocking up on 6’ 3” guards should be a fireable offense.

yes I know. Why I said Jones showed his senior year and Dunn has not. It is certainly a risk and a bigger one for us because if he can’t shoot 3’s he becomes unplayable with Sabonis unless Sabonis finds some range.

Imo almost any professional basketball player should be able to hit 30 percent of their catch and shoot threes with enough reps and instruction from shooting coaches. That’s all Dunn needs to be able to do to get on the court. He is athletic enough to score in transition, catch lobs and slash for buckets.

30% on catch and shoot 3’s is very low and not playable.

I agree with most of your assertions but would not lock in on Dunn. Regardless we have to get longer to compete with OKC, Pels, Minnesota and Memphis.

it is when you can score in other ways and play Herb jones level defense.

Lets see what the combine brings. Again, this isn't the typical 6'3" guard you find on the Kings. He's more like an Eric Gordon physically than a Malik, Keon, or De'Aaron. He's listed at 195, my guess is he'll probably drop some pounds for the combine but in reality you're probably looking at a guy that with normal NBA training is 205 to 210. Dude's a beast physically, and no, the Kings don't have that outside of Domas on the roster period. As stated above, the Kings guard rotation probably will, and should look entirely different coming in as soon as next season. A 13th pick this late in the Kings attempt to surge into contention wasn't expected and in 2 years it's possible the Kings decks could be almost entirely cleared around Fox, Keegan, and Domas so if they keep the pick, take the talent and wait if need be. That's the smart decision.

If he decides to muscle up 5-10 pounds you might be talking Lu Dort territory. He just shut down one of the longest wings in the league and Carter has a 1/2 inch of wingspan on him.